Autonomous Vehicles?

[WelshGas]

Interesting discussion on Autonomous Vehicles on the Today Programme.
Is big Tech driving the demand or Users?
Can Autonomous vehicles exist alongside Manual controlled vehicles or does technology demand all or nothing?

 

[California_Ocean]

I will qualify my "yes" with the word "eventually" as it isn't coming any time soon but we should continue working on it.

My dream has always been to go to bed on a Friday evening in my van and wake up in the marina car park in the Adriatic on a Saturday morning - don't think this will happen in my lifetime though.

 

[WelshGas]

One point made in the discussion was that having vehicles controlled by 2 very different " intelligences " on the road will not work unless one changes towards the other in the way they function. Autonomous control cannot evolve and Human Control won't evolve because that would mean losing free will/freedom to a machine .

 

[Hawthorn37]

I vote ‘no’ with the mindset that once we go down that route, any human control will eventually be banned on health and safety grounds! Answering a slightly different question, Do you think that autonomous vehicles WILL take over from manual vehicles? My answer / prediction is yes. It’s the way that big tech in cahoots with national governments will direct us. The existing “assistance” features are a stepping stone / large scale lab experiment.

 

[California_Ocean]

I vote ‘no’ with the mindset that once we go down that route, any human control will eventually be banned on health and safety grounds! Answering a slightly different question, Do you think that autonomous vehicles WILL take over from manual vehicles? My answer / prediction is yes. It’s the way that big tech in cahoots with national governments will direct us. The existing “assistance” features are a stepping stone / large scale lab experiment.

The switch over will be driven by insurance premiums when insurance companies decide that autonomous vehicles have less accidents than humans ... then humans will be priced out of the market - insurance premiums won't just be a differential based on sex and age, they will also have a category for autonomous vehicles which will end up being the cheapest (no emotion, no adrenalin, no concentration problems).

I don't believe it will be mandated by the government because it would be an extremely unpopular policy.

Just as humans have pretty much been ejected from factory processes that require consistency and quality control, driving cars will be no different.

Just my 10c.

 

[WelshGas]

I

I vote ‘no’ with the mindset that once we go down that route, any human control will eventually be banned on health and safety grounds! Answering a slightly different question, Do you think that autonomous vehicles WILL take over from manual vehicles? My answer / prediction is yes. It’s the way that big tech in cahoots with national governments will direct us. The existing “assistance” features are a stepping stone / large scale lab experiment.

I can see a situation where city centres, in the first instance, will only be accessible by Autonomous Vehicles ONLY, and outside the area manual only. Overtime the Only Autonomous areas will increase in size until a point where manual cars will be restricted to private roads only.

 

[dspuk]

I've voted a yes but I presented at a conference a few years back where I was asked this question.

I noted the 4 stages of autonomous (we are at stage 2 more or less) with the final stage being "brain off". Stage 2 for most cars (hands off) is more or less a legality issue in reality nowadays.

The main challenge I discussed was the one that all the techies have been trying to grapple with is how to replicate the human eye and brain to provide the right responses in the right situation for eye and brain off. This has been the challenge they have been trying to wrestle with, reasonably unsuccessfully, using code and computers. Nearly all their grand predictions, including my old bosses, have come and cone without so much as a blip.

IMHO the answer lies in simplifying the roads that can be autonomous on. I can see the next step being a move to certain motorway stretches, like toll roads today, which are designed for simplified computing needs for autonomous to work perfectly. That could give us easy stage 3 in those area with much less computing power needed. Eventually these get more and more with one day the non-autonomous zones being akin to race day tracks of today.

Most of the paraphernalia on a road and highways system is designed for humans, not computers - if you were to do it the other way around you would have a much simpler and streamlined road setup.

The challenge with that is the commitment, global cross working and investment is just not there - so they continue to throw money at silicon chips in the hope they can solve it that way.

 

[California_Ocean]

There is a massive role for AI ... although the driver won't notice at the moment, there is an AI permanently running in Teslas which is comparing its own theoretical decisions with what the driver actually does. Obviously the vehicle sensors capture only a fraction of what a human driver perceives but when a human driver makes a decision that differs to the AI, all the sensor data around the decision point (it is collected in a ring buffer) is uploaded to Teslas servers and analysed.

The idea is that they accumulate milions and millions of miles of real world "driving experience" that they can use to refine their AI and deploy in all Teslas as it evolves.

The skill lies in creating a sensor system for a car that allows an AI to asses its environment with the same or better precision than a human being.

 

[dspuk]

There is a massive role for AI ... although the driver won't notice at the moment, there is an AI permanently running in Teslas which is comparing its own theoretical decisions with what the driver actually does. Obviously the vehicle sensors capture only a fraction of what a human driver perceives but when a human driver makes a decision that differs to the AI, all the sensor data around the decision point (it is collected in a ring buffer) is uploaded to Teslas servers and analysed.

The idea is that they accumulate milions and millions of miles of real world "driving experience" that they can use to refine their AI and deploy in all Teslas as it evolves.

The skill lies in creating a sensor system for a car that allows an AI to asses its environment with the same or better precision than a human being.

*Machine Learning

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

This is interesting.

 

[The Tall Luthier]

The future is a long, long time so almost certainly the answer is yes.

If all autonomous vehicles have black boxes that record driving patterns and collision data, the insurance companies will get access. they will then tailor policies according to this data for example.

Have an automated accident? Excess: £0 (They will sue the car manufacturer and make a profit!)
Have an accident and you were in control ? Excess £3,500

Over time single drivers will spend their rush hour mornings being productive on their devices rather than shouting at others.

Realistic time scale, one, at most, two generations I think.

 

[BrendanJ]

I agree with one to two generations, and manual driving will become a thing of the past except for the eccentric few that drive antique cars or indeed campervans , haha
In fact manual driving will be engineered out of cars such as no controls, steering wheels, foot pedals etc and completely resigned internally for seating comfort and workspace, with no need to face forward such as now
All of this will reduce costs enormously and indeed automated taxis will become the norm, ie so low cost that which strange fellow would want to own one for his own personal consumption and parking up for 90% of the time
In places like London car ownership is already reducing when their is an economic and practical alternative,
The technology to achieve this will be quicker than you might think, but the ability of society to adjust to this new way of living will be at least 2 decades
And think about it the implications are ENORMOUS,. No personal cars, all taxis, no house driveways, no car parks, no transport workers, no pollution
Massive reduction of car market due to efficient use of all cars on the road, not parked up. It goes on and on the implications
A brave new world indeed, it’s not just adding a few convenient features for the driver
Just think about it for a while and this technological step is easily on a par to the original invention of the automobile and its impact on the whole world and society

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Agree with much of what you predict @BrendanJ certainly for cities/towns and their suburbs. I think it will take a little longer in rural communities. OK to order a ride from an app on your phone in a city environment but for remote locations/longer journeys it will be much more of a challenge. Dialling a ride from Castlebay to Stornaway for example would be extremely challenging.

 

[66tim99]

In places like London car ownership is already reducing

Yes, you can see it on the streets too - less parked cars. In 10 years my street has gone from being lucky to find a parking space, to there always being one available. Other streets have has parking reduced, replaced with planting, seating, cycle parking or carriageway narrowing.
I'm of an age where I know lots of teenagers - my own daughters friends, and my mates kids. I don't know one that has an ambition to sit a driving test. An easy choice to make in London, but what about when you leave, go on holiday etc? Some say 'someone will be able to drive me' and others think they may seek a licence in future, but for now they are happy to use public transport and Ubers/Bolts.

 

[soulstyledevon]

I have three nieces and nephews between the ages of 18 & 24. None of them drive, none of them seem interested in learning.
Seems a bit odd to me. I couldn’t wait until I was 17 and able to take my test.

Under 25s are no longer interested in driving in gridlocked cities. The sense of freedom is lost on them. They can go anywhere they need with an Uber. Which probably works out cheaper than car ownership…

So in answer to your question, sadly I believe it’s going automated.

 

[SamSara]

Yes, you can see it on the streets too - less parked cars. In 10 years my street has gone from being lucky to find a parking space, to there always being one available. Other streets have has parking reduced, replaced with planting, seating, cycle parking or carriageway narrowing.
I'm of an age where I know lots of teenagers - my own daughters friends, and my mates kids. I don't know one that has an ambition to sit a driving test. An easy choice to make in London, but what about when you leave, go on holiday etc? Some say 'someone will be able to drive me' and others think they may seek a licence in future, but for now they are happy to use public transport and Ubers/Bolts.

My daughter is the same; she may consider learning to drive if her life takes her out of city living at some stage in her future

 

[Calimili]

Yes, you can see it on the streets too - less parked cars. In 10 years my street has gone from being lucky to find a parking space, to there always being one available. Other streets have has parking reduced, replaced with planting, seating, cycle parking or carriageway narrowing.
I'm of an age where I know lots of teenagers - my own daughters friends, and my mates kids. I don't know one that has an ambition to sit a driving test. An easy choice to make in London, but what about when you leave, go on holiday etc? Some say 'someone will be able to drive me' and others think they may seek a licence in future, but for now they are happy to use public transport and Ubers/Bolts.

I have three nieces and nephews between the ages of 18 & 24. None of them drive, none of them seem interested in learning.
Seems a bit odd to me. I couldn’t wait until I was 17 and able to take my test.

Under 25s are no longer interested in driving in gridlocked cities. The sense of freedom is lost on them. They can go anywhere they need with an Uber. Which probably works out cheaper than car ownership…

So in answer to your question, sadly I believe it’s going automated.

My daughter is the same; she may consider learning to drive if her life takes her out of city living at some stage in her future

If that's really the case, than I must admit it's better to have automated cars. Because driving once a few miles every few months it will make them terrible drivers, for lack of experience.

 

[SamSara]

If that's really the case, than I must admit it's better to have automated cars. Because driving once a few miles every few months it will make them terrible drivers, for lack of experience.

Yes, she agrees and that is why she refused driving lessons for her 17th birthday stating that she wouldn’t be driving until at least finishing university.

 

[ArunAlec]

I have three nieces and nephews between the ages of 18 & 24. None of them drive, none of them seem interested in learning.
Seems a bit odd to me. I couldn’t wait until I was 17 and able to take my test.

Under 25s are no longer interested in driving in gridlocked cities. The sense of freedom is lost on them. They can go anywhere they need with an Uber. Which probably works out cheaper than car ownership…

So in answer to your question, sadly I believe it’s going automa

My nephew and nieces aren’t bothered about learning to drive all the time mum & dad are “on call” to provide a taxi service!

 

[Velma's Dad]

Contemplating WG''s original question - I can't myself see any fundamental reason why human-driven and autonomous vehicles can't occupy the same road space. That has been happening, although in a limited way, in the places where trials have been taking place. I'm sure the next generations of human driven vehicles, which will have increasing levels of 'driver assistance' semi-autonomy, will have capabilities to communicate with other vehicles around them (both human driven and AVs) to help to de-conflict potential incidents.

There will of course still be current-generation driven/'dumb' cars out there as well, but of course there are in any case all sorts of other moving hazards that AVs have to cope with on the roads - pedestrians, bikes, horses, dogs and cats, etc.

There might be some quite interesting behavioural phenomena by a minority of drivers, eg deliberately interfering with AVs trying to make progress out on the road. Some new laws might be necessary There are also some profound regulatory issues around insurance and liability, but the legal and insurance insustries have been rehearsing those issues for several years and I assume new frameworks and maybe statutes will emerge. No government of an 'advanced' economy will want to be seen to get in the way of the technology.

Practical AVs open up such huge potential opportunties in future transport systems, such as self driving taxis, that I expect the commercial logic will make them a reality. I'd not bet a penny on timescales though.