Diesel Residuals?

[HectorPascal]

Hello Cali-Community,

If anyone remembers us from a few months back, we are still very interested. Having rented in October for a week - loved it of course - we are still weighing things up. We have, in fact, started a sort of piggy-bank fund that might help with the cost (whatever it has escalated to by the time we are ready). Next rental will be France in late Spring '17 for a longer and hopefully confirmatory experience.

Events happen though. Now we have a growing movement against the diesel engine. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the politics and science, it would not surprise me if this current shift gains a momentum all of its own and what might that do to precious and cherished residuals? How might that affect the utility of the Cali - banished from towns and suddenly no more versatile than a hulking-big motorhome. The eye-watering price that VW are able to command is justified by it's heritage, quality and, mainly, residuals.

We plan to make this purchase from new and keep it until the Cali - and the two of us - are worn out wrecks. Then it's over Beachy Head en-masse with a stiff drink inside us and Sinatra singing 'One More For The Road'. In this case residuals don't really come into it aside from the comforting knowledge that if Cali life becomes a bore reversing out would not be too expensive in the first 5 years, but in the years (maybe more than twenty with luck) will we be able to use it freely?

The world is changing ever faster and even the NYPD have swapped many of their Dodge Chargers and the like for little eco-noddy cars. (comically uncool guys) In this brave new hybrid-world the modern marvel that is the diesel internal combustion engine s is going to seem like a traction engine of the early Victorian age, spewing tuberculosis spores and tumour seeds out of every wheezing orifice.

Imagine a nuclear fusion-cell powered Cali with a photovoltaic skin (and windows) and a battery pack which is 5 times more efficient than the best presently available - they are on the way. Now you are talking! Where do we sign?

 

[Hotel California]

https://vwcaliforniaclub.com/threads/ordered-a-petrol-cali.16517/#post-184192

 

[sidepod]

Don't waste anymore life pondering, dive in and enjoy.

 

[GrannyJen]

I would prefer to be a diesel-stained, wine-sozzled old biddy being taken to my last resting place in Albert than spewing up with radiation sickness and developing all sorts of hitherto unknown tumours from photo-voltaic distorted UV waves.

Live my life with what I have now and what I have now is joy on 4 wheels.

Come on Albert old love, let's go and have a blast through the next emission-controlled zone and to hell with the lot of them .... hic

 

[Digger]

Today's diesel engines are the cleanest ever, high tech filters capture 99% of particulates and NOx emissions are down 84% since 2000 so just live a little and enjoy the freedoms which our children may never experience while you may.
Truth is newer diesels are better than ever and produce far less CO2. How will we produce the electricity to power millions of electric vehicles if reliant on renewable wind farms. Not a chance according to the government who are aware of power shortages with the demise of coal powered stations.

 

[Borris]

Fear not. The diesel engine is here to stay. There is no current viable alternative.

IMO all the current fashionable talk about banning the nasty diesel is not based on reality. What alternative power source are you going to use in HGVs, buses, trains, ships, military, agriculture etc etc?...........or are we just talking about picking on the motor car?

Whilst I fully except that the diesel of old was a pretty dirty affair, that just isn't the case with the modern diesel engine. Further more it will almost certainly be developed to be even cleaner still.

How do those in power making these sweeping statements think that commerce and industry in major towns and cities will continue without regular deliveries and collections? Solar or electric powered HGVs perhaps? I think not. Maybe petrol powered vehicles? Err no. As we all know, petrol pollutes as well. It's just that it is not quite so fashionable to say so at present. Anyway with a petrol powered HGV or bus you would be lucky to get 10mpg along with considerable pollution. Yes, there are other potential power sources but unless I am mistaken they are a long way from being a viable alternative at present.

I wouldn't worry yourself, just go and buy your Cali and enjoy it. Don't wait for a hybrid or electric one to appear because you will almost certainly have a very very very long wait. Anyway with VW's current dire financial position they may decide that it's not worth continuing with California production. Also don't be tempted to buy a petrol one as you will quickly become a regular visitor at the pump. Given that the Cali is a lifestyle choice for most buyers, they are unlikely, IMO, to ever suffer much from poor residuals. VW cannot make enough of them.

Finally, I like your idea of the nuclear fusion-cell powered Cali with a photovoltaic skin, however VW have difficulty making a Cali with a roof that doesn't go bandy so I can't even begin to imagine how that one would work out. Definitely be a very long thread on this forum though.

 

[GrannyJen]

It could outlive the "roof rot" thread

"My nuclear reactor has just wiped out everyone in the caravan next door - mind you, their fairy lights were awful"...

"My photo-voltaic skin has got sunspots! "

"Is it normal to glow green in the dark? When the colour is strontium grey?"

 

[B J G]

Is this Con-fusion or Pro-fusion? I'll have to consult Confucius. rolleyes

 

[MattBW]

We (National Grid) just installed the first CNG filling station for HGVs, for John Lewis.
It is connected to the National Transmission system in Leyland, They have a fleet of dedicated CNG heavy goods vehicles as I understand it.

http://www2.nationalgrid.com/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=8589935584

It is the HGVs and buses that need to be addressed first to really improve air quality in our cities. The interest in CNG has came about because gas has a far lower carbon footprint than diesel. we are also connecting sewage plants, factories and farms all the time to take biogas and put it onto the gas network.

Change will come, do not doubt it, however the blanket ban of diesels some are talking about isn't practical, infrastructure and technology changes take time.

(all opinions are my own of course not that of my employer).

 

[Borris]

We (National Grid) just installed the first CNG filling station for HGVs, for John Lewis.
It is connected to the National Transmission system in Leyland, They have a fleet of dedicated CNG heavy goods vehicles as I understand it.

http://www2.nationalgrid.com/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=8589935584

It is the HGVs and buses that need to be addressed first to really improve air quality in our cities. The interest in CNG has came about because gas has a far lower carbon footprint than diesel. we are also connecting sewage plants, factories and farms all the time to take biogas and put it onto the gas network.

Change will come, do not doubt it, however the blanket ban of diesels some are talking about isn't practical, infrastructure and technology changes take time.

(all opinions are my own of course not that of my employer).

I agree. This is one of a number of possible ways forward all of which will take both time and a lot of money to implement.

Another system being considered is using tram networks to deliver goods. VW already deliver car parts to their factory via the electric tram network in Dresden. They called it the CarGoTram.


I believe other cities including Amsterdam and Paris are considering something similar. However before you can do this you need a tram system and one that reaches all parts of the city. Then it would have to be able to cope with not only the increased passenger use placed on it by the banning of other vehicles but would have to cope with commercial freight traffic as well. Personally I don't think that this is the answer as the set up costs for a city like London would be astronomical, even in the long term. Not to mention the years of disruption. Also it seems to me that if goods are to be successfully delivered and collected using a tram network it would need the passenger usage to be fairly light. Then there would also be issues like how does the tram system still operate when the cargo trams stop to unload. A possible solution would be a series of local delivery/collection depots with small electric vehicles to take the goods to the actual premises. All this would put extra strain on our already stretched national electricity supply grid. It may eventually happen in some cities but apart from very limited use I doubt that it will be anytime soon.

Until these new developments receive big investment then the humble vilified diesel must continue to keep society going and we should all be grateful for its existence. As I have said before, IMO the immediate future lies with the diesel being made cleaner and more efficient rather than banning it.

 

[MattBW]

Thats a great example of reducing the impact and like all things in life moderation is ok.

I would like to add I am very interested in being personally green, I would happily add an AdBlu system to my T5 if it was easy and affordable to do so. It is my only regret from not waiting for the T6 the adblu part.

The problem could be greatly reduced by getting older diesels off the road, similar with the old scrappage scheme here in the UK sometime ago.

 

[Kmann]

If, if, when, when, maybe … one can wait forever for the unexpected possibilities of the future while life passes by. Live now - order today!

 

[B J G]

With the introduction of Euro6 emission control on new vehicles since Sept. 2015 there is obviously still a small percentage of city traffic operating to this criteria. From that it would appear that the data that is being forwarded as a reason to ban Diesels enmass is based on outdated statistics

It would be far more sensible to ban all pre Euro4 vehicles and then look at the pollution levels again, with the option of moving the base line up to Euro5 & then 6 if the problem persists.

 

[Borris]

Whilst I am sure that most are gas fired, I have often wondered if domestic and commercial oil fired hot water/heating systems are a significant contributor to the said pollution levels in towns and cities. I am not an expert on these things but as they burn a similar fuel to diesel and I assume, don't have the same emissions technology that the modern diesel motor vehicle has, are they a factor? Can someone enlighten me?

 

[B J G]

Whilst I am sure that most are gas fired, I have often wondered if domestic and commercial oil fired hot water/heating systems are a significant contributor to the said pollution levels in towns and cities. I am not an expert on these things but as they burn a similar fuel to diesel and I assume, don't have the same emissions technology that the modern diesel motor vehicle has, are they a factor? Can someone enlighten me?

The answer has to be yes but it wouldn't be 'Politically Correct' to mention it Never seen anybody quote how much pollution is generated by Middle Eastern conflicts.
Quantities are compared to London Double Deckers or Football Pitches Is there a similar Pollution reference?

 

[HectorPascal]

Good news on another thread about the introduction of the Mercedes Marco Polo in 2017. Still a diesel but there will at least be a quality competitor to VW - something long overdue. We will be having a very good look at that.

 

[Borris]

Good news on another thread about the introduction of the Mercedes Marco Polo in 2017. Still a diesel but there will at least be a quality competitor to VW - something long overdue. We will be having a very good look at that.

That's interesting. It will also be interesting to see if an MP holds it's value like a Cali.

 

[SimonB]

Bristol was using a bus powered by human and food waste in 2014 in a trial.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30125792 The trial was a success but when the bus operator applied for further funding from Government it was refused. It gave a chance for an amusing headline
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-38000317 It also gave at least one interesting statistic; A single passenger's annual food and sewage waste would fuel the Bio-Bus for 37 miles (60km)

 

[WelshGas]

Bristol was using a bus powered by human and food waste in 2014 in a trial.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30125792 The trial was a success but when the bus operator applied for further funding from Government it was refused. It gave a chance for an amusing headline
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-38000317 It also gave at least one interesting statistic; A single passenger's annual food and sewage waste would fuel the Bio-Bus for 37 miles (60km)

I think what it shows is that Wind, Solar and alternative fuels work, but are not commercially viable without significant Government funding for start-up costs and even subsidies for ongoing use. On our way home from Lincoln there were 40+ Wind Turbines we passed. Not one was turning. Your electric vehicle wouldn't get very far that day if totally dependant on wind produced electricity. Fortunately that day was sunny so obviously Solar panels were working, but today thick fog and no wind, so no Solar and no wind power.
Despite what the Green Lobby may say we haven't cracked it yet.

 

[SimonB]

Not cracked it completely I agree, but there will always be human and food waste to dispose of and this way it can be reused and not dumped into landfill to produce methane.
Nuclear power isn't cheap to start up, fund or decommission either but is low on atmospheric pollution. Trawsfynydd nuclear power station in Snowdonia was begun in 1959. Opened in 1965 and construction costs were £103 million. It was decommissioned in 1991 and the work is still going on up there today, 25 years later. I'm told by friends who used to work there that there are more staff there now than there were when it was operational.
The more we can explore alternatives the better prepared we are.

 

[SimonB]

I thought I should add a picture of the bus which entertained most of us around here.
Far less harmful to the environment than diesel.

 

[HectorPascal]

Even as a child I remember being appalled at littering and later on, waste. The stats are pretty horrific - something in the order of 20% of all food produced is not consumed. I am very heartened by the prototype plant which is now operating in the UK which takes 'black' waste (pretty much everything) and. turns it into gas. One of the main reasons that re-cycled anything needs subsidy to compete is the human labour cost.
How about turning all of our HMPs into re-cycling/sorting centres which benefit from the free labour of society's miscreants. The worse the crime, the worse the job allocated. Their 'debt to society' could be genuinely discharged for once. The European Court of Human Rights might cause a little trouble but, post Brexit?

 

[Velma's Dad]

Quite an interesting (IMO) article today about the machinations within the 2001 government that led to the 'dash to diesel': http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41985715

Some will tend to interpret actions of governments simplistically (eg it's always all about screwing the motorist, or whatever) but I personally think the article shows intriguingly how in some cases at least governments are actually very sensitive to how policies will play out in public. In this case, too sensitive.

For me it also underlines, depressingly, how hard it can be to implement evidence-based policies without them being processed through a presentational lens of short term political expediency.

Of course for a Cali sized vehicle a diesel makes a lot of sense, and I suspect well-designed and (crucially) real-world-verified future diesels - Euro 7, perhaps? - can be viable if we accept some pricing instruments like urban charge zones to moderate their use in cities. They'll have to be, for large commercial vehicles anyway.

In terms of residuals though, I'd expect that Euro 4 and 5 Calis will be subjected to higher and higher VEDs and that's bound to affect resales. (Not that I'm that bothered, it's still cheaper than a yacht and more fun).

But it will be very interesting to see how the present government comes at the whole air quality/diesel question in the Budget... and how objective, or self-interested, we as motorists will be in how we react to it.

 

[HectorPascal]

Quite an interesting (IMO) article today about the machinations within the 2001 government that led to the 'dash to diesel': http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41985715

Some will tend to interpret actions of governments simplistically (eg it's always all about screwing the motorist, or whatever) but I personally think the article shows intriguingly how in some cases at least governments are actually very sensitive to how policies will play out in public. In this case, too sensitive.

For me it also underlines, depressingly, how hard it can be to implement evidence-based policies without them being processed through a presentational lens of short term political expediency.

Of course for a Cali sized vehicle a diesel makes a lot of sense, and I suspect well-designed and (crucially) real-world-verified future diesels - Euro 7, perhaps? - can be viable if we accept some pricing instruments like urban charge zones to moderate their use in cities. They'll have to be, for large commercial vehicles anyway.

In terms of residuals though, I'd expect that Euro 4 and 5 Calis will be subjected to higher and higher VEDs and that's bound to affect resales. (Not that I'm that bothered, it's still cheaper than a yacht and more fun).

But it will be very interesting to see how the present government comes at the whole air quality/diesel question in the Budget... and how objective, or self-interested, we as motorists will be in how we react to it.

Probably the most sage comment I have read on this forum.