Prices Gonna Crash

[gatvol]

Mere speculation, obviously .....

Under lockdown and easy printed money luxury assets rocketed - Cornish holiday homes, 1970s classic cars, Rolexes, pinball machines, campervans ..

Folk locked down in the UK focused on UK activities so Cornwall, caravans, campervans all went turbo

Folk who enjoyed the nice UK lockdown summers, loved their caravans, tents, holiday rentals ....... in 2023 have just been reminded why they used to get on charter flights to Spain

I reckon a financial bloodbath awaits. £70k to £80k to buy a diesel van to have a complete wash out in July and August ??? These newcomers will take the best bid

 

[Corradobrit]

Been discussed ad nauseam. The crash is just around the corner. Nah
A lot will hinge on what VW bring to the table as a T6.1 Cali replacement. Will know if a few weeks at the Caravan Salon event if its a winner or a big fat splat. It's possible the last Transporter based Cali will be the next air-cooled Porsche. Prices for those have gone through the roof.

 

[andyinluton]

Folk who enjoyed the nice UK lockdown summers, loved their caravans, tents, holiday rentals ....... in 2023 have just been reminded why they used to get on charter flights to Spain

More like all those running from wildfires & excessive heat along with all those that don't want to queue at 5.30 AM for a sunbed, not forgetting the numerous flight cancellations, are wishing they were camping in the UK

People have been saying the prices are going to crash since about 2012.
Say they are going to crash every couple of months & at some point one year, eventually you may be right.

 

[OooOooTheMonkey]

If it was purely supply and demand then prices could drop a lot, but the cost of a new vehicle has a massive impact on the secondhand prices, so with inflation being so high and new car prices continuing to go up (and likely to never come down again) I really don’t see how a crash is likely. Also, people are going to love Calis and similar vehicles as much as they ever have. Interest in them as vehicles won’t drop. Furthermore the T6.1 is about to end production. If the replacement Multivan is a bit pants and/or significantly more expensive then that’ll keep T6.1 values high. Close to inflation matching private sector pay rises are happening so many are keeping up with inflation, but that’s not across the board so I suspect demand will cool a bit, but crash…? I just don’t see it.

 

[The Merle]

More like all those running from wildfires & excessive heat along with all those that don't want to queue at 5.30 AM for a sunbed, not forgetting the numerous flight cancellations, are wishing they were camping in the UK

People have been saying the prices are going to crash since about 2012.
Say they are going to crash every couple of months & at some point one year, eventually you may be right.

Scotland has loads of campervans from eu at mo.
Will the diesel ban on CARs (NOT vans) even come in 2030 already rumoured to be getting delayed/kicked into the long grass.
Think used vehicles will go back to normal prices the 10/20/30% under new price depending on age etc

 

[Mansfieldman750]

There’s an old joke about economists - we know it works in reality, how can we make it work in theory ?
The reality is prices didn’t crash so there’s something wrong with the theory. Maybe there is no strong correlation between rising mortgage rates and Californias for sale at giveaway prices.

 

[Californication69]

The pictures actually make the multi van look good.
But standing by it and looking in the window.
Looks like a dogs dinner.
The plastic dashboard is 3 feet from windscreen to steering wheel. Looks awful.
Height is lower than a 6.1.
Looks a bit like a jap import.
Really didn’t like the look of it.

So back to OP.
No, I really think the 6.1 will increase in price over the next 10 / 20 years.
Might be a nice pension top up to fund a NB RV

 

[OooOooTheMonkey]

View attachment 112447
View attachment 112448
The pictures actually make the multi van look good.
But standing by it and looking in the window.
Looks like a dogs dinner.
The plastic dashboard is 3 feet from windscreen to steering wheel. Looks awful.
Height is lower than a 6.1.
Looks a bit like a jap import.
Really didn’t like the look of it.

So back to OP.
No, I really think the 6.1 will increase in price over the next 10 / 20 years.
Might be a nice pension top up to fund a NB RV

Sadly I agree. It looks like a Renault Espace.

 

[Azteccamper]

To be fair people who buy a Cali are not likely to be on the breadline and even if they start opting to go back on package holidays they might keep the Cali as an option going forward.

 

[Corradobrit]

View attachment 112447
View attachment 112448
The pictures actually make the multi van look good.

Were you wearing beer goggles?

 

[Californication69]

Were you wearing beer goggles?

I said the pictures make it look ok.
But in the flesh, I wanted to

 

[Corradobrit]

I said the pictures make it look ok.
But in the flesh, I wanted to

You could be viewing the photos through beer goggles. Thats the only explanation

 

[Van Diesel VW]

To be fair people who buy a Cali are not likely to be on the breadline and even if they start opting to go back on package holidays they might keep the Cali as an option going forward.

I wasn’t on the breadline until I bought my cali! yes I had a washout in the new forest recently, but won’t be rushing to the airport anytime soon, the cali is unique and ticks so many boxes, ideal for day trips, tip runs, touring, weekends away, dont think prices will crash, but will be interesting to see where VW take the cali universe to.

 

[reserves]

37 pages talking about how prices are going to crash since 2021

Are prices due to crash?

I was browsing through some old photos and found a screenshot of a WeBuyAnyCar.com valuation from March 2018. It gave my T6 Beach first registered March 2017 with 25,000 miles on the clock a valuation of £28,730. A new valuation with 63,000 miles on the clock is £30,315. My vehicle is gaining...

vwcaliforniaclub.com

Hasn’t happened yet

 

[The Merle]

View attachment 112447
View attachment 112448
The pictures actually make the multi van look good.
But standing by it and looking in the window.
Looks like a dogs dinner.
The plastic dashboard is 3 feet from windscreen to steering wheel. Looks awful.
Height is lower than a 6.1.
Looks a bit like a jap import.
Really didn’t like the look of it.

So back to OP.
No, I really think the 6.1 will increase in price over the next 10 / 20 years.
Might be a nice pension top up to fund a NB RV

When are you posting the pics that make it look good

 

[B J G]

If "Crash" is defined by the Media definition that a 4% drop in house prices is a Crash then possibly Cali prices will Crash.

40% is a Crash by my definition and I can't see that being the case.

 

[Corradobrit]

If "Crash" is defined by the Media definition that a 4% drop in house prices is a Crash then possibly Cali prices will Crash.

40% is a Crash by my definition and I can't see that being the case.

The British Press love to exaggerate and embellish just to sell their product.

 

[WelshGas]

It's the same old story.
T4 owners didn't like the T5 when it was unveiled, likewise with the T5.1, T6 and T6.1.
No one likes the new kid on the block, but they survive.
Even if the Multivan is just a 2 berth full fat camper it will sell.

 

[Azteccamper]

It's the same old story.
T4 owners didn't like the T5 when it was unveiled, likewise with the T5.1, T6 and T6.1.
No one likes the new kid on the block, but they survive.
Even if the Multivan is just a 2 berth full fat camper it will sell.

It will indeed.

 

[Camperfamily]

I might be in the minority here, but I like the look of the Multivan, at least from certain angles. I don’t think the Cali version will, in itself, cause much change in the prices of previous Cali models. If I like it enough I may buy a Multivan-based Cali at some point in the future, although not in the first few years to avoid the typical first gen ‘bugs’.

 

[Borris]

I might be in the minority here, but I like the look of the Multivan, at least from certain angles. I don’t think the Cali version will, in itself, cause much change in the prices of previous Cali models. If I like it enough I may buy a Multivan-based Cali at some point in the future, although not in the first few years to avoid the typical first gen ‘bugs’.

Which angles? Underneath?

Even dogs would howl if that was served up for breakfast.

 

[WelshGas]

Which angles? Underneath?

Even dogs would howl if that was served up for breakfast.

That's what some said about the T6.1, a dog carrying a bone.
How time flies.

 

[Borris]

And that hasn't grown on me either.

 

[Borris]

Spot the difference.

 

[Corradobrit]

Spot the difference.View attachment 112513

Well the extra chrome accents aren't doing it any favours. I have no issue with the front end so long as it has LED's and fogs. It's all about the details.