Prices Gonna Crash

[sidepod]

Thing is, all car/van brands have their own styling DNA.
I’ve always liked the way VW pen a model and hated Fords work. Fords have always looked cheap to me.

4,5or 6, at least they’re all VW DNA.
This Ford/VW thing is just a bastard child.

 

[OooOooTheMonkey]

It's the same old story.
T4 owners didn't like the T5 when it was unveiled, likewise with the T5.1, T6 and T6.1.
No one likes the new kid on the block, but they survive.
Even if the Multivan is just a 2 berth full fat camper it will sell.

VW campers have always been based on their current panel van though. Is this the first time a VW has been based on a people carrier? By definition as an MPV it won’t have the payload or capacity of a panel van, so I have to wonder where the compromises will be. A plastic tailgate sounds like one of them to keep the weight down. I hope it doesn’t start to feel like a cheap plasticky product generally. Like it or not the T6.1 has a feel of real quality and sturdiness with the ability to carry the weight of all the “correct” camping equipment.

 

[Calispark1]

If it was purely supply and demand then prices could drop a lot, but the cost of a new vehicle has a massive impact on the secondhand prices, so with inflation being so high and new car prices continuing to go up (and likely to never come down again) I really don’t see how a crash is likely. Also, people are going to love Calis and similar vehicles as much as they ever have. Interest in them as vehicles won’t drop. Furthermore the T6.1 is about to end production. If the replacement Multivan is a bit pants and/or significantly more expensive then that’ll keep T6.1 values high. Close to inflation matching private sector pay rises are happening so many are keeping up with inflation, but that’s not across the board so I suspect demand will cool a bit, but crash…? I just don’t see it.

Say that again so I feel better pls.

 

[jeannie]

Last year I sold my 2011 4 motion for just £4,000 less than I paid in 2011!!!
And this year I sold one I purchased last June for £6,000 more than I paid for it.
values are good and I expect them to remain so.

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Mere speculation, obviously .....

Under lockdown and easy printed money luxury assets rocketed - Cornish holiday homes, 1970s classic cars, Rolexes, pinball machines, campervans ..

Folk locked down in the UK focused on UK activities so Cornwall, caravans, campervans all went turbo

Folk who enjoyed the nice UK lockdown summers, loved their caravans, tents, holiday rentals ....... in 2023 have just been reminded why they used to get on charter flights to Spain

I reckon a financial bloodbath awaits. £70k to £80k to buy a diesel van to have a complete wash out in July and August ??? These newcomers will take the best bid

Personally I don’t think there will be a crash in California prices.

1. Mediterranean holidays might become unattractive to many people if the extreme summer temperatures persist.
2. Some people were holding back from buying until the ID Buzz California arrived in 2024/25. We now know that’s not going to happen in this decade.
3. T6.1 ceases production in 2024 making them rarer. Not everybody will want the Multivan version which is a compromised design.
4. Much talk in the news about the production of synthetic petrol/diesel. Once production costs come down it will breath life into all existing ICE vehicles.

Just my opinion and I would add that many of us didn’t buy the California as a financial investment but as a fun lifestyle choice.

 

[GrannyJen]

About a month early.

The gloom and Doom about Cali prices normally start around the end of September.

A perennial discussion, and even panic at times, that has not materialised for the last 12 years that I have had an interest.

 

[Anthony1]

Scotland has loads of campervans from eu at mo.
Will the diesel ban on CARs (NOT vans) even come in 2030 already rumoured to be getting delayed/kicked into the long grass.
Think used vehicles will go back to normal prices the 10/20/30% under new price depending on age etc

Its been made law. So some left lawyers will sue the government if they don't. We are now on our fourth such carbon budget, valid from 2023 to 2027.

 

[chockswahay]

It's the same old story.
T4 owners didn't like the T5 when it was unveiled, likewise with the T5.1, T6 and T6.1.
No one likes the new kid on the block, but they survive.
Even if the Multivan is just a 2 berth full fat camper it will sell.

2 berth full fat camper? I’m in I quite like it

 

[Corradobrit]

Its been made law. So some left lawyers will sue the government if they don't. We are now on our fourth such carbon budget, valid from 2023 to 2027.

Laws can be repealed or tweaked so that means nothing.

 

[Corradobrit]

About a month early.

The gloom and Doom about Cali prices normally start around the end of September.

A perennial discussion, and even panic at times, that has not materialised for the last 12 years that I have had an interest.

I predict a surge in prices starting August 26th.......

 

[David Lorimer]

I tend to agree with the OP, that a downturn is coming. I have a narrowboat on the market right now and have noticed how, increasingly, discounts are being offered. The best time to sell was around the height of the pandemic.

 

[Christopher Thomas]

Mere speculation, obviously .....

Under lockdown and easy printed money luxury assets rocketed - Cornish holiday homes, 1970s classic cars, Rolexes, pinball machines, campervans ..

Folk locked down in the UK focused on UK activities so Cornwall, caravans, campervans all went turbo

Folk who enjoyed the nice UK lockdown summers, loved their caravans, tents, holiday rentals ....... in 2023 have just been reminded why they used to get on charter flights to Spain

I reckon a financial bloodbath awaits. £70k to £80k to buy a diesel van to have a complete wash out in July and August ??? These newcomers will take the best bid

Here In Denmark rumour has it that VW can get more for the Cali in Germany than they can in DK so they are stopping the export to us. Hence Danish prices have rocketed. We have the most expensive vehicles in the world after tax. If I told you the price of a California in Denmark you would go into shock.

 

[Calispark1]

Cheers,
I’ll buy a watch now. Any advice?

Last year I sold my 2011 4 motion for just £4,000 less than I paid in 2011!!!
And this year I sold one I purchased last June for £6,000 more than I paid for it.
values are good and I expect them to remain so.

a

 

[vwsween]

Here In Denmark rumour has it that VW can get more for the Cali in Germany than they can in DK so they are stopping the export to us. Hence Danish prices have rocketed. We have the most expensive vehicles in the world after tax. If I told you the price of a California in Denmark you would go into shock.

And is it true that an average net salary in Denmark is 60% higher than an average UK net salary?

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Personally I don’t think there will be a crash in California prices.

1. Mediterranean holidays might become unattractive to many people if the extreme summer temperatures persist.
2. Some people were holding back from buying until the ID Buzz California arrived in 2024/25. We now know that’s not going to happen in this decade.
3. T6.1 ceases production in 2024 making them rarer. Not everybody will want the Multivan version which is a compromised design.
4. Much talk in the news about the production of synthetic petrol/diesel. Once production costs come down it will breath life into all existing ICE vehicles.

Just my opinion and I would add that many of us didn’t buy the California as a financial investment but as a fun lifestyle choice.

View attachment 112887

If eFuels are successfully introduced at a sensible price point by 2030, I wonder how ULEZ type zones will have to adjust?

Mr Khan won’t be able to claim a Cali running on eFuel is a high polluting vehicle but the DVLA documentation will still suggest it is. Could be interesting.

 

[GreatResigner]

More like all those running from wildfires & excessive heat along with all those that don't want to queue at 5.30 AM for a sunbed, not forgetting the numerous flight cancellations, are wishing they were camping in the UK

People have been saying the prices are going to crash since about 2012.
Say they are going to crash every couple of months & at some point one year, eventually you may be right.

Exactly, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

 

[OooOooTheMonkey]

If eFuels are successfully introduced at a sensible price point by 2030, I wonder how ULEZ type zones will have to adjust?

Mr Khan won’t be able to claim a Cali running on eFuel is a high polluting vehicle but the DVLA documentation will still suggest it is. Could be interesting.

Presumably it’ll still throw out loads of nitrous oxide?

 

[Corradobrit]

Presumably it’ll still throw out loads of nitrous oxide?

That's what Adblue is for.

 

[OooOooTheMonkey]

That's what Adblue is for.

Yes but are the emissions identical to fossil fuels? If so no difference.

 

[NessL]

I tend to agree with the OP, that a downturn is coming. I have a narrowboat on the market right now and have noticed how, increasingly, discounts are being offered. The best time to sell was around the height of the pandemic.

I’d say the narrowboat market is a bit different. They tend to last pretty much forever, so demand has to keep rising to keep up with the ever rising supply, if prices are to remain stable.
There are considerably more boats on the canals now, than when we had our first one approx 25 years ago. Especially in and around London.

 

[derek_j_buchanan]

Mere speculation, obviously .....

Under lockdown and easy printed money luxury assets rocketed - Cornish holiday homes, 1970s classic cars, Rolexes, pinball machines, campervans ..

Folk locked down in the UK focused on UK activities so Cornwall, caravans, campervans all went turbo

Folk who enjoyed the nice UK lockdown summers, loved their caravans, tents, holiday rentals ....... in 2023 have just been reminded why they used to get on charter flights to Spain

I reckon a financial bloodbath awaits. £70k to £80k to buy a diesel van to have a complete wash out in July and August ??? These newcomers will take the best bid

Why do you feel the need to disrupt peoples lives any more than they are already with such a post. Clearly not a Cali owner so why are you on this site. Go away and keep your views to your self and stew on your own juice.

 

[WaikatoCalifornia]

Mere speculation, obviously .....

Under lockdown and easy printed money luxury assets rocketed - Cornish holiday homes, 1970s classic cars, Rolexes, pinball machines, campervans ..

Folk locked down in the UK focused on UK activities so Cornwall, caravans, campervans all went turbo

Folk who enjoyed the nice UK lockdown summers, loved their caravans, tents, holiday rentals ....... in 2023 have just been reminded why they used to get on charter flights to Spain

I reckon a financial bloodbath awaits. £70k to £80k to buy a diesel van to have a complete wash out in July and August ??? These newcomers will take the best bid

Mere speculation, obviously .....

Under lockdown and easy printed money luxury assets rocketed - Cornish holiday homes, 1970s classic cars, Rolexes, pinball machines, campervans ..

Folk locked down in the UK focused on UK activities so Cornwall, caravans, campervans all went turbo

Folk who enjoyed the nice UK lockdown summers, loved their caravans, tents, holiday rentals ....... in 2023 have just been reminded why they used to get on charter flights to Spain

I reckon a financial bloodbath awaits. £70k to £80k to buy a diesel van to have a complete wash out in July and August ??? These newcomers will take the best bid

Hi there, I live in NZ and we had a similar experience here - anything recreational like caravans, boats, bikes and Calis (and home renovations!) went nuts during Covid, but things have sort of returned to normal now. I know a couple of people who just sold Calis and they took a while, whereas in 2021 or 2022 they’d have been snapped up virtually immediately. But as others have pointed out, inflation is rampant, so even if demand is soft, prices may not collapse that far as new ones have gone up significantly in price, alongside production costs. I suspect it’ll depend on how many people paid cash or bought them on credit or slapped them on the mortgage, but market dynamics are certainly very different now.

As to the impact of the new vs old; that’s a real interesting one. As some have pointed out, the new I’d Buzz may be too heavy as a base for full-blown camper, but perhaps the biggest issue will be, what if there’s a long gap between the last T6.1 orders being delivered and the first T7/ID Buzz orders being delivered? That’s likely to be a factor.

I suspect another factor for unique vehicles like the Cali will also be the tried and trusted older model vs the brand new but untested new model debate. That‘s a tricky one and there is plenty of debate as to whether the T6 was better than the T6.1 (I still haven’t made my mind up about that!), and I suspect the same debate will be carried over to any new models in coming years. Essentially, would you prefer to own the last run of an earlier model that has been tried and tested, honed and corrected, and has all teething issues ironed out, or prefer to own a completely new model that will probably have more tech and be fancier and look cooler, but may not be as well appointed due to cost constraints and/or may have some teething issues and take a while to get bedded down.

 

[OooOooTheMonkey]

Hi there, I live in NZ and we had a similar experience here - anything recreational like caravans, boats, bikes and Calis (and home renovations!) went nuts during Covid, but things have sort of returned to normal now. I know a couple of people who just sold Calis and they took a while, whereas in 2021 or 2022 they’d have been snapped up virtually immediately. But as others have pointed out, inflation is rampant, so even if demand is soft, prices may not collapse that far as new ones have gone up significantly in price, alongside production costs. I suspect it’ll depend on how many people paid cash or bought them on credit or slapped them on the mortgage, but market dynamics are certainly very different now.

As to the impact of the new vs old; that’s a real interesting one. As some have pointed out, the new I’d Buzz may be too heavy as a base for full-blown camper, but perhaps the biggest issue will be, what if there’s a long gap between the last T6.1 orders being delivered and the first T7/ID Buzz orders being delivered? That’s likely to be a factor.

I suspect another factor for unique vehicles like the Cali will also be the tried and trusted older model vs the brand new but untested new model debate. That‘s a tricky one and there is plenty of debate as to whether the T6 was better than the T6.1 (I still haven’t made my mind up about that!), and I suspect the same debate will be carried over to any new models in coming years. Essentially, would you prefer to own the last run of an earlier model that has been tried and tested, honed and corrected, and has all teething issues ironed out, or prefer to own a completely new model that will probably have more tech and be fancier and look cooler, but may not be as well appointed due to cost constraints and/or may have some teething issues and take a while to get bedded down.

Agreed with all of this until you said about the old model being tried and tested with teething problems ironed out. Leaking bellows, tailgate and roof seal spring to mind!

 

[soulstyledevon]

Why do you feel the need to disrupt peoples lives any more than they are already with such a post. Clearly not a Cali owner so why are you on this site. Go away and keep your views to your self and stew on your own juice.

@gatvol has a point.
Even the weather has an effect on our domestic spending. The high street, fashion and leisure spending are all down as the rain keeps shoppers away.
Last minute bookings to foreign destinations having a massive surge…

 

[larrylamb]

Clearly not a Cali owner so why are you on this site.

He/she has had a Cali since 2011.