2023…predict the supply/demand future!

[Peadarcollins]

Hi All. My family and I will be buying a used California Ocean in a few months once I see how much we can afford once the tax bill is paid! I spent the last few years watching in horror as prices rose (and major scarcity) but I didn’t have the funds to buy then. Luckily things seem to be swinging slowly back the other way. my thinking based on basic economics is that supply issues are easing (some say gone completely) for new vans so the premium that nearly new has been commanding should vanish. In theory this should trickle down with a drop in all second hand prices. I’m not expecting big shifts (perhaps 10% drop) but I’m curious to know your thoughts? is this wishful thinking? What are your thoughts on the timeline etc. thanks in advance for sharing your insights

 

[Lambeth Cali]

My guess is that there will be a huge glut of T6 conversions for sale as many people realise that post Covid they would rather go to Fuerteventura etc. I couldn’t believe how many vans there were on Dorset coast 2 summers ago.

I suspect that genuine Californias will hold up well in comparison but inevitably go down in price a little.

 

[Peadarcollins]

My guess is that there will be a huge glut of T6 conversions for sale as many people realise that post Covid they would rather go to Fuerteventura etc. I couldn’t believe how many vans there were on Dorset coasts 2 summers ago.

I suspect that genuine Californias will hold up well in comparison but inevitably go down in price a little.

You definitely have a good point about the conversion market…but presumably that has an influence on the genuine California market also. I’d much rather own a California but could be swayed if the conversion prices dropped significantly (which they could). Thanks for sharing.

 

[Ch1pbutty]

The lead time for decent conversions is often far longer than the wait for a new Cali.

You could well end up paying a higher price overall for a conversion versus a Cali.

Just depends what you are after. (Ie - conversion can be spec’d with Lithium batteries, diesel hob,gas/ induction hob combo etc, hot water, solar etc).

 

[Barbara]

I speculate that January and February are good times to buy when people decide that they vans are not being used and others have not yet decided that a holiday in a van is a good idea as it is cold outside. This theory is really only based on the fact that I brought my van from new in February when the dealers wanted to clear older vans as new ones coming in so selling cheaper. May not be the same now.

There is also the fuel costs to consider. Is is better to to keep a van and save hotel bills over the cost of running a van over a cheaper to run small car.

How long do you plan to keep the van, a cost increase now spread over a long time and the ability to use it sooner may not be as bad as waiting and wishing you had a van earlier. Again I say this as someone who will keep my van till it is no longer useable.

If you do not live or drive in London or any of the other low carbon zones you may find that the older diesel vans will come down in place as more restrictions come in on where they can be driven. My T5 is OK in London but not Birmingham. It all depends on age.

 

[WelshGas]

I speculate that January and February are good times to buy when people decide that they vans are not being used and others have not yet decided that a holiday in a van is a good idea as it is cold outside. This theory is really only based on the fact that I brought my van from new in February when the dealers wanted to clear older vans as new ones coming in so selling cheaper. May not be the same now.

There is also the fuel costs to consider. Is is better to to keep a van and save hotel bills over the cost of running a van over a cheaper to run small car.

How long do you plan to keep the van, a cost increase now spread over a long time and the ability to use it sooner may not be as bad as waiting and wishing you had a van earlier. Again I say this as someone who will keep my van till it is no longer useable.

If you do not live or drive in London or any of the other low carbon zones you may find that the older diesel vans will come down in place as more restrictions come in on where they can be driven. My T5 is OK in London but not Birmingham. It all depends on age.

I'm surprised your T5 will not attract the ULEZ charge.

 

[Barbara]

I'm surprised your T5 will not attract the ULEZ charge.

I was too I think is because of the date it was registered. Keep checking but not risking it just in case website is wrong. I have just set up registration for Barcelona zones and have sticker for France but not used that either. Spain have new system in progress but yet only issues stickers to Spanish cars, so looks like driving in parts of Spain may be difficult.

 

[Peadarcollins]

The lead time for decent conversions is often far longer than the wait for a new Cali.

You could well end up paying a higher price overall for a conversion versus a Cali.

Just depends what you are after. (Ie - conversion can be spec’d with Lithium batteries, diesel hob,gas/ induction hob combo etc, hot water, solar etc).

Thanks….my budget will only stretch to a used model unfortunately but hopefully I’ll be able to make my money go further if the prices drop…fingers crossed.

 

[Peadarcollins]

I speculate that January and February are good times to buy when people decide that they vans are not being used and others have not yet decided that a holiday in a van is a good idea as it is cold outside. This theory is really only based on the fact that I brought my van from new in February when the dealers wanted to clear older vans as new ones coming in so selling cheaper. May not be the same now.

There is also the fuel costs to consider. Is is better to to keep a van and save hotel bills over the cost of running a van over a cheaper to run small car.

How long do you plan to keep the van, a cost increase now spread over a long time and the ability to use it sooner may not be as bad as waiting and wishing you had a van earlier. Again I say this as someone who will keep my van till it is no longer useable.

If you do not live or drive in London or any of the other low carbon zones you may find that the older diesel vans will come down in place as more restrictions come in on where they can be driven. My T5 is OK in London but not Birmingham. It all depends on age.

I speculate that January and February are good times to buy when people decide that they vans are not being used and others have not yet decided that a holiday in a van is a good idea as it is cold outside. This theory is really only based on the fact that I brought my van from new in February when the dealers wanted to clear older vans as new ones coming in so selling cheaper. May not be the same now.

There is also the fuel costs to consider. Is is better to to keep a van and save hotel bills over the cost of running a van over a cheaper to run small car.

How long do you plan to keep the van, a cost increase now spread over a long time and the ability to use it sooner may not be as bad as waiting and wishing you had a van earlier. Again I say this as someone who will keep my van till it is no longer useable.

If you do not live or drive in London or any of the other low carbon zones you may find that the older diesel vans will come down in place as more restrictions come in on where they can be driven. My T5 is OK in London but not Birmingham. It all depends on age.

Thanks Barbara…. I think you’re spot on with the January/February window. i selfishly want a glut of used Cali’s to come on the market at reasonable prices

 

[soulstyledevon]

Anyone who thinks Cali prices will hold firm, is living in cloud cuckoo land…
I would bide your time, hold onto your money and wait for the spring bargains.

2023 the year of the big reset…

 

[Corradobrit]

Anyone who thinks Cali prices will hold firm, is living in cloud cuckoo land…
I would bide your time, hold onto your money and wait for the spring bargains.

2023 the year of the big reset…

Nobody says the prices will hold firm, but expecting the bottom to fall out of the market for factory Cali's is living in cloud cuckoo land.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Nobody says the prices will hold firm, but expecting the bottom to fall out of the market for factory Cali's is living in cloud cuckoo land.

As mentioned on another post. Tesla taking charge and slashing its prices on new models. Not a small reduction either. This will have an effect on every other car brand.

Add on rising inflation, the cost of borrowing which has risen steeply. I would imagine price cuts over the coming months from various manufacturers…

Tesla slashes the price of its electric cars by up to £9,100

The US firm announced it has cut the price of both the Model Y (main) and Model S (inset) as of today, citing 'normalisation of some of the cost of inflation'.

www.thisismoney.co.uk

 

[Calimili]

As mentioned on another post. Tesla taking charge and slashing its prices on new models. Not a small reduction either. This will have an effect on every other car brand.

Add on rising inflation, the cost of borrowing which has risen steeply. I would imagine price cuts over the coming months from various manufacturers…

Tesla slashes the price of its electric cars by up to £9,100

The US firm announced it has cut the price of both the Model Y (main) and Model S (inset) as of today, citing 'normalisation of some of the cost of inflation'.

www.thisismoney.co.uk

Before Covid, during Covid, and probably also after Covid, the VW California second hand market was performing on a league of its own. Prices not behaving either like other cars nor other motorhomes.
I cannot see VW slashing nominal prices, they surely will return to 10-15-18% discounts.
But a lot of options have disappeared from the new offerings, like 4Motion which for many is attractive. I believe prices will retain their normal highs, while the crazy prices (above 100k €) will finally disappear.

 

[gvick]

With the price of new Californias still going up by inflation I think Cali prices will be ok - even if we don’t see the absolute highs during covid.

 

[GrannyJen]

The main value of a California is what you get out of using it, not how you value the jumble of components and recycled beer cans that make up it's physical form.

It has since inception been a vehicle of high residual value by comparison to everything else so the formula of enjoy most and devalue least makes it a highly desirable item to have and that desirability will not diminish.

 

[Corradobrit]

The main value of a California is what you get out of using it, not how you value the jumble of components and recycled beer cans that make up it's physical form.

It has since inception been a vehicle of high residual value by comparison to everything else so the formula of enjoy most and devalue least makes it a highly desirable item to have and that desirability will not diminish.

Agreed with all of that. Historically the Cali is a vehicle with the 2nd highest retained value across the entire ICE platform. Prices will fall back in line with retail pricing and decrease from there, relative to age and mileage.

 

[dspuk]

As mentioned on another post. Tesla taking charge and slashing its prices on new models. Not a small reduction either. This will have an effect on every other car brand.

Add on rising inflation, the cost of borrowing which has risen steeply. I would imagine price cuts over the coming months from various manufacturers…

Tesla slashes the price of its electric cars by up to £9,100

The US firm announced it has cut the price of both the Model Y (main) and Model S (inset) as of today, citing 'normalisation of some of the cost of inflation'.

www.thisismoney.co.uk

Comparing Tesla with VW Calis is like comparing Spanish Orange prices based on Brazilian Banana yields. Two totally different customer segments, market sectors and economic forces. Tesla prices are going down because their “genius” has splashed his cash (and Tesla stock) on Twitter resulting in a crash on Tesla stock. They need to raise cash fast. A firesale of old stock is the way to do it. They are also having to reset because after having the luxury EV market to themselves for years and being able to milk their EV cash cow every manufacturer and his dog now has a very good competitive product.

Cali prices are stabilising for sure but I’m not sure why some are wishing for a crash. Prices are not crashing but with foreign holidays back in place and some parts supply stabilising (not 4m etc) their (VW and 2nd hand sellers) ability to raise and force higher prices due to scarcity and demand is leading to a gentle pendulum swing back.

But talk of price crashing and comparisons to a family size EV are a little out of context to how the car industry works.

 

[Chris Ratay]

I just replaced the batteries in my crystal ball...

I believe Cali's will hold their value, and here's why:

The typical Cali owner isn't living paycheck to paycheck, so won't NEED to sell in order to pay rent/mortgage.

The typical Cali owner wants to go on vacation, regardless of a recession or a pandemic.

During a recession or pandemic, people will vacation locally. If they can't justify a typical flyaway vacation with the high costs of flights, accommodation, transfusion, restaurants, activities, and souvenirs, they can easily do a road trip in their Cali.

Some say the quality of a factory finished Cali could be better, but it's still at a reliable standard.

Lead-times on new Cali's are still unknown and unreliable.

And of course, the internet makes Vanlife very appealing, putting more demand on the market.

I recently bought a new T6.1 Ocean that was ordered as a pre-spec from the dealer. I spent more than I wanted to, but got exactly what I wanted, without waiting. I'm (only) 56 and have realized the older I get, the more value i put on doing/getting the things I want.

CONVERSATIONS
I could've bought a Beach and had it converted, but the quality builders are booked out for ages.

The ones with time? I prefer not to participate in the learning curve of their education.

The conversation market is getting filled with amatures, and even some experienced builders are overworked and having a decline in quality. This will became more evident in the future, and could impact conversion resales.

CONCLUSSION
To me, LHD Cali's in good shape shouldn't be overly impacted by another possible recession.

But even if I'm wrong, I bought my Cali to use it, to feed my lust for travel and adventure - and that's priceless.

Regardless, let's get out and travel more, rather than just dream and procrastinate about it.

 

[B J G]

As mentioned on another post. Tesla taking charge and slashing its prices on new models. Not a small reduction either. This will have an effect on every other car brand.

Add on rising inflation, the cost of borrowing which has risen steeply. I would imagine price cuts over the coming months from various manufacturers…

Tesla slashes the price of its electric cars by up to £9,100

The US firm announced it has cut the price of both the Model Y (main) and Model S (inset) as of today, citing 'normalisation of some of the cost of inflation'.

www.thisismoney.co.uk

If you look at the actual % figure (which varies with the Model) it isn't a slashing action.
I often see reports of new Cali Owners getting greater % discounts.

Manufacturers are more likely to be looking at stripping out some of the expensive Tech and offering price reductions via that route.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Last year we probably spent the most ever on our 2 1/2 week European holiday after a fairly miserable Dorset trip the year before. Ferry to Spain and 4* or 5* campsites all the way, meals out most days. Never worrying about the price. My kids are at a fun age and I wanted more memories created.

I vaguely totted it up when we got back and I reckon it was probably half what a similar family might spend on an all inclusive somewhere sunny. We know people who spend £5k on a family holiday.

Camping and not flying is still a pretty economical way to roll. What we could have spent over the last 14 years would easily have paid for our van.

A California can be looked at as a very expensive van or a very reasonable second home.

 

[GrahamB]

Before Covid, during Covid, and probably also after Covid, the VW California second hand market was performing on a league of its own. Prices not behaving either like other cars nor other motorhomes.
I cannot see VW slashing nominal prices, they surely will return to 10-15-18% discounts.
But a lot of options have disappeared from the new offerings, like 4Motion which for many is attractive. I believe prices will retain their normal highs, while the crazy prices (above 100k €) will finally disappear.

I agree - and Tom at Breeze says 4Mo will be back as an option in 6 months or so anyway.

 

[GrahamB]

Last year we probably spent the most ever on our 2 1/2 week European holiday after a fairly miserable Dorset trip the year before. Ferry to Spain and 4* or 5* campsites all the way, meals out most days. Never worrying about the price. My kids are at a fun age and I wanted more memories created.

I vaguely totted it up when we got back and I reckon it was probably half what I similar family might spend on an all inclusive somewhere sunny. We know people who spend £5k on a family holiday.

Camping and not flying is still a pretty economical way to roll. What we could have spent over the last 14 years would easily have paid for our van.

Same here - plus the odd hotel thrown in for good measure!

 

[Deadsquirrel!]

4motions will hold their price better purely because people would want the vans for summer so 6 months is too late.

 

[Neuromancer11]

i ordered a new one yesterday so expect prices to crash based on my track record

 

[Mansfieldman750]

i ordered a new one yesterday so expect prices to crash based on my track record

Good for you, I hope you got a good deal. Supply and demand is probably academic to you now but I found these figures very interesting.
As you can see registrations of new California’s plummeted in 2020, were still well down on 2017 to 2019 figures in 2021, and got back close to these figures in 2022.
This was not due to lack of demand, on contrary demand was very strong, with customers prepared to pay more than list for a used van, rather than wait for new. It was lack of supply, due to Covid and component shortages.
So in answer to the original question. In 2023, supply shouldn’t be a problem except for anyone wanting a 4-motion
Demand will be less due to high interest rates and increased mortgage rates.
As Adam Smith ( guy on back of £20 note ) said in 1776, supply exceeds demand, prices sink.