2023…predict the supply/demand future!

[larrylamb]

View attachment 104105
Good for you, I hope you got a good deal. Supply and demand is probably academic to you now but I found these figures very interesting.
As you can see registrations of new California’s plummeted in 2020, were still well down on 2017 to 2019 figures in 2021, and got back close to these figures in 2022.
This was not due to lack of demand, on contrary demand was very strong, with customers prepared to pay more than list for a used van, rather than wait for new. It was lack of supply, due to Covid and component shortages.
So in answer to the original question. In 2023, supply shouldn’t be a problem except for anyone wanting a 4-motion
Demand will be less due to high interest rates and increased mortgage rates.
As Adam Smith ( guy on back of £20 note ) said in 1776, supply exceeds demand, prices sink.

the big rise in registrations in 2017 would be down to the newly released T6 California orders. A lot of newcomers and also existing owners trading "up". IMO.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

the big rise in registrations in 2017 would be down to the newly released T6 California orders. A lot of newcomers and also existing owners trading "up". IMO.

There was certainly something caused a huge spike in registrations in 2017

 

[willwander]

2023 will be a tough year
Still... I wouldn't expect any huge bargains.

 

[Peadarcollins]

View attachment 104105
Good for you, I hope you got a good deal. Supply and demand is probably academic to you now but I found these figures very interesting.
As you can see registrations of new California’s plummeted in 2020, were still well down on 2017 to 2019 figures in 2021, and got back close to these figures in 2022.
This was not due to lack of demand, on contrary demand was very strong, with customers prepared to pay more than list for a used van, rather than wait for new. It was lack of supply, due to Covid and component shortages.
So in answer to the original question. In 2023, supply shouldn’t be a problem except for anyone wanting a 4-motion
Demand will be less due to high interest rates and increased mortgage rates.
As Adam Smith ( guy on back of £20 note ) said in 1776, supply exceeds demand, prices sink.

i totally agree…and as the prices drop (which is likely to be moderate rather than significant), the demand increases and the price stabilises again. At the end of the day I’m just hoping to make my money go further ie getting a slightly newer/lower mileage van for the same money.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

i totally agree…and as the prices drop (which is likely to be moderate rather than significant), the demand increases and the price stabilises again. At the end of the day I’m just hoping to make my money go further ie getting a slightly newer/lower mileage van for the same money.

Look at it this way. If you’re buying used in 2023 you are going to get a better deal than you would have done in 2021 or 2022. When you are ready have a look round, find one you like, and don’t worry about whether it’s the bottom of the market or not. Predicting tops and bottoms is a mug’s game anyway.
Good hunting !

 

[2into1]

Blah blah blah blah. Anyone looking for the facts rather than hoping for a positive outcome can see that prices are falling (yes winter is a part), demand is falling and supply is increasing. The Facebook group has several panicking owners whose new Cali has arrived months ahead of forecast and wondering how to sell their old Cali at a reasonable price. Their only hope is to reduce their asking price to the lowest on the market to hopefully catch the limited numbers of buyers before someone lowers the price 'bottom' again. Dealers and WBAC seem to have dropped out.
No one should be gloating. 99% of us are Cali owners so will feel the pain to our balance sheets.

 

[2into1]

Comparing Tesla with VW Calis is like comparing Spanish Orange prices based on Brazilian Banana yields.

I'm no statistician but I suspect (from years on this forum) there is a very strong correlation between Cali and Tesla owners vs virtually any other vehicle.

Tesla's actions might just show the benefit of small organisations and quick decision making. I imagine the same action was being considered in virtually all board rooms but would have taken months of indecision to arrive at the same plan.

Many of those speaking ill of Tesla are just pis*ed at Musk's actions at Twitter. I personally wouldn't bet against him.

 

[Neuromancer11]

Good for you, I hope you got a good deal.

well its clearly difficult to quantify a "good" deal, but i certainly got a deal i was happy with on both price and delivery estimate... i orginally went into this thinking i'd buy second hand but nobody seemed to want to do a "deal" and i simply wasn't prepared to risk paying over the odds for a 5-6 year old van at what appears to be that start of a falling market... Its a long term purchase so i indend to extract the maximum value out of it as i can

 

[dspuk]

I'm no statistician but I suspect (from years on this forum) there is a very strong correlation between Cali and Tesla owners vs virtually any other vehicle.

Think you answered your own point. I’d respectfully disagree. I see very little correlation. I’m not a stato either but was in the industry for 27yrs.

Tesla's actions might just show the benefit of small organisations and quick decision making. I imagine the same action was being considered in virtually all board rooms but would have taken months of indecision to arrive at the same plan.

Depends. We organised firesales very quickly when needed. Tesla need to. Musk dropped their stock through the floor.

Many of those speaking ill of Tesla are just pis*ed at Musk's actions at Twitter. I personally wouldn't bet against him.

Maybe. I’d be minded to agree but as he is showing - extreme luck in one market is not leading to success in others. Twitter is a shower atm with 50% of advertisers leaving and the rest slashing budgets. He is running out of runway. Literally.

 

[dspuk]

well its clearly difficult to quantify a "good" deal, but i certainly got a deal i was happy with on both price and delivery estimate... i orginally went into this thinking i'd buy second hand but nobody seemed to want to do a "deal" and i simply wasn't prepared to risk paying over the odds for a 5-6 year old van at what appears to be that start of a falling market... Its a long term purchase so i indend to extract the maximum value out of it as i can

Perfect definition of good deal. One you can live with.

 

[2into1]

extreme luck in one market is not leading to success in others.

It might be worth watching the documentary about his history to learn how many markets he's been successful in already. I was very surprised.

 

[dspuk]

It might be worth watching the documentary about his history to learn how many markets he's been successful in already. I was very surprised.

Been in the industry since 2012. Head of social media and now own and run a digital strategy agency. Followed his progress closely. A lot of it, paypal for instance, was just perfect timing. As was buying an EV company and taking it over like he did. No denying his brains but at some point many very clever very lucky very well placed very rich people overreach. They think they can’t fail and are surrounded by people who confirm that. I fear Twitter was a stretch too far for someone as self assured and arrogant as our friend Elon. Time will tell. So far underestimating how to sell features for Twitter Blue, how complex the development and politics are and not understanding the advertising ecosystem have led to todays situation. Overpaying for the original stock and stretching the Tesla stock position to finance it may end up to be just the icing on a very wonky cake.

 

[2into1]

He'll be fine. We've all lost shed loads if we care to look at our pensions / investments if we care to look (until this surprise pick up).
Back on track. Anyone fancy a 2019 25k manual ocean for £48.5 asking price should take a look on autotrader. (not mine). Edit, and now the forum.

 

[2into1]

Been in the industry since 2012. Head of social media and now own and run a digital strategy agency. Followed his progress closely. A lot of it, paypal for instance, was just perfect timing. As was buying an EV company and taking it over like he did. No denying his brains but at some point many very clever very lucky very well placed very rich people overreach. They think they can’t fail and are surrounded by people who confirm that. I fear Twitter was a stretch too far for someone as self assured and arrogant as our friend Elon. Time will tell. So far underestimating how to sell features for Twitter Blue, how complex the development and politics are and not understanding the advertising ecosystem have led to todays situation. Overpaying for the original stock and stretching the Tesla stock position to finance it may end up to be just the icing on a very wonky cake.

Back off topic. I think anyone denying Musk is an extraordinary one-off needs to take a long hard look at themselves and get some serious therapy. Then do some research in to spaceX, Solar City, Neuralink etc etc and to really think what it took to bring Tesla into its current size.

 

[2into1]

Lease deals have been forecasting what's now unfolding for the last few months. This guy is trying hard to establish a channel and gives a good view of the market. Until about May last year, there were no in-stock deals to talk about, then suddenly there were, then the prices came tumbling. Tesla model Y has been available on remarkable lease deals for months (given its list price), and then 12‰ (15%?) was lopped off the list price last week.
I suspect when the upturn eventually start, the lease market will reveal it well before list prices at main dealers.

 

[VanHelsing]

Small data point to add in - models / discounts email from Drive the Deal just in, they’re now offering 10.5% off an Ocean, and 14.5% off a Grand California. The former was 9% off when we ordered in summer 2021.


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