About Cali residuals in 2021.

[kriva]

I know any answer to this thread will most likely be a guess at best, but this is still something which has been at the back of my mind for some time now.
How do you figure the pandemic will impact the residual value on a (new) California? There seems to have been an unprecedented surge in orders for new Calis. Quite a few people who wouldn't have given a campervan a second thought are interested in purchasing one or have already done so. I have a feeling quite a few of these vans will end up on the second hand market quite quickly after the restrictions lift or start to lift.
Now,I'm still thinking about purchasing a Cali as well, mainly waiting on a showroom-model/demonstrator which should arrive at the dealership later this month.
Now, if we purchase one, I'm certainly not planning on selling it anytime soon, but the fact remains that it is a huge amount of money and having the "guarantee" of good residual value does soften the blow somewhat. In my mind, that guarantee might be seriously questionable once this whole thing ends.
What are your thoughts?

 

[sapto]

Hi there and welcome (missed your Introduction post)

To be honest - buy it/the van whatever and use it. It is such a great vehicle, of course sometime with some faults and problems, however it can give/gives us such a great opportunity to travel or just sit in it for a cup of tea (especially atm) that we never thought about how much we'll get in return if we ever sell. And we are aware that we unlikley get the amount we want/or the van is worth to us. However that's okay for us.

And it of course depends on how much you pay and how (we paid cash by collection) rules might be with your creditcard or "leasing company"?

Look forward to see your Demovan and read your thought

Happy Sunday

 

[andyinluton]

I would guess a large proportion will be bought on PCP / HP both of which would be expensive to get out of in the first year or two. I would have thought it therefore be in about 3 years time when the PCPs come to an end that there may be a price adjustment.

On the other hand based on this years delivery performance by VW, with a restricted supply, next year may be silly prices as well.

My guess though is May, June & July this year will be peak pricing. If they get up to £100k I might even consider selling mine.

 

[GrannyJen]

Asking how residuals will pan out is a bit like asking what will the weather be like in 2022 when I take my holidays.

The influencing factors are varied and with CV have become even more variable. When I joined this forum there was talk about the camper van market being saturated and residuals dropping like a stone. I thought I was buying into an automotive disaster until I sold the same van 4 years later practically for what I paid for it.

Who's to say there's not going to be a 4th wave, rogue variant in 2022 that's going to make all those who bet on normal travel in 2021 rushing out to buy any cali they could get their hands on?

 

[Elmo3]

Nobody knows but chances are, a Cali will continue to depreciate less than pretty much anything else. Once planes start flying, plus the fact that many will quite possibly have a really bad experience with rammed campsites etc, there could be more supply, but who knows. I suspect we‘ll be using ours more for day trips this summer than camping, it’s going to be chaos.

 

[WelshGas]

I wonder what distortion PCP will bring to the market?

 

[Tom]

When we bought our California in 2008 it cost £32000 with all the bells and whistles. It’s done 65000 miles so far and we still love it. I’m pretty sure we would get high 20’s if we were to sell it. The only other vehicles I know of capable of doing the same is a Landrover and I have one of them too.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

There’s always people worrying about residuals. I wouldn’t let it affect your purchase.

 

[Joker 1299]

Agreed, no point in worrying about something we can do nothing about

 

[B J G]

In addition to a demand for new California's currently there seems to be a huge demand for vans to convert to Campervans both on a DIY and Professional basis.

I tend to think that this 'fad' will leave a surplus of campervans on the market from 2022 or later with the resulting drop in values being achieved. There will be as ever a market for the California's if in good condition and spec.

My view on whether to sell at the market high point is that I'd have to purchase another vehicle to replace it which has sufficient load capacity for my requirements. That type of vehicle would be expensive and have relatively high depreciation (£30-40K over 3 years) which I think would be greater than the potential risk of keeping the Cali.

 

[Trudi]

We ordered a new Coast on 31st December 2020. 1st January 2021 prices increased. And again in April.
We negotiated a great deal and with the 2 price increases already, we have saved nearly £8000 on the book price.
That added to the priceless memories that will be made makes it worthwhile.
I personally feel that the California will hold its price over the conversions far better. Purely because many will be converting vans and those will probably be the 1s that flood the market sooner than the California

 

[Jukebox70]

We bought ours new in 2015 for £54000, just checked webuyanycar and they have offered just under £42000, depreciation at £2k a year. Not intending to sell anytime soon though, just interesting to know.

 

[andyinluton]

Webuyanycars offer was over 10k less than I got trade in on my old van in January.
Their offers have always been low on calis.

 

[reserves]

Webuyanycars offer was over 10k less than I got trade in on my old van in January.
Their offers have always been low on calis.

£42k sounds ok to me for a 2015.

 

[2haw]

I sold my first Cali Beach to Webuyanycar in March 2018 for £36,220 and ran it through the WBAC system yesterday and they quoted £35,435 over 3 years later! Unbelievable!

I also ran through my old Beach Edition and it was £800 more than I sold it for 6 weeks ago!

 

[bob_summers]

With talk of one year lead times, it doesn’t seem like VW are capable of flooding the market

 

[Azteccamper]

I sold my first Cali Beach to Webuyanycar in March 2018 for £36,220 and ran it through the WBAC system yesterday and they quoted £35,435 over 3 years later! Unbelievable!

I also ran through my old Beach Edition and it was £800 more than I sold it for 6 weeks ago!

Just tried mine. WBAC value is £3k more than I paid for it off this site over 4 yrs ago.

 

[Camperfamily]

@2haw why didn’t you go the WBAC route this time if it was more than you achieved privately? Or is that WBAC have increased their amount in the past 6 weeks?

 

[Prycey13]

IMO If you’re worried about residuals don’t buy new. Better to let someone else take the hit on the VAT and buy a second hand T6. Likely though you’d pay over on this too due to supply and demand with staycations being so popular this year. A campervan is a heart purchase so if you can afford it suck it up and just enjoy it - think covid has really highlighted how short life is. They really are a privilege to own and I’ve really missed getting out in ours over the last year. All the best with your decision.

 

[BeagleMum]

IMO If you’re worried about residuals don’t buy new. Better to let someone else take the hit on the VAT and buy a second hand T6. Likely though you’d pay over on this too due to supply and demand with staycations being so popular this year. A campervan is a heart purchase so if you can afford it suck it up and just enjoy it - think covid has really highlighted how short life is. They really are a privilege to own and I’ve really missed getting out in ours over the last year. All the best with your decision.

Totally agree that a Campervan is a heart not a head purchase. If you want it and can find a way to get it, go for it, that’s our motto. Life is for living and enjoying, none of us know when our ‘last goodbye’ is.

 

[2haw]

@2haw why didn’t you go the WBAC route this time if it was more than you achieved privately? Or is that WBAC have increased their amount in the past 6 weeks?

It’s gone up by a couple of grand or so on WBAC since i sold it 6/7 weeks ago..

 

[2haw]

IMO If you’re worried about residuals don’t buy new. Better to let someone else take the hit on the VAT and buy a second hand T6. Likely though you’d pay over on this too due to supply and demand with staycations being so popular this year. A campervan is a heart purchase so if you can afford it suck it up and just enjoy it - think covid has really highlighted how short life is. They really are a privilege to own and I’ve really missed getting out in ours over the last year. All the best with your decision.

Totally disagree when it comes to the California..
2nd hand prices are so close to new (with 10-12% discount) that you’re better spending 4/5 grand more, getting new with full 5 year warranty. The newer van will always be worth 3/4 grand more than one thats 1 or 2 years older

 

[Tarquers]

I think demand is rising regardless of the pandemic if you look at sales figures in new markets. The increase in orders could actually be a decrease in production (or both) so you are perhaps worrying about a situation that may not exist. Either way, if you are not in a rush to sell you will get a good price, someone nearly always willing to pay a premium to get into the market.

A number of European dealers are offering customers substantial discounts if they are willing to have their new car used as a demo, so if you go this route you may end up buying something you could sell for more.

For me, the Cali was the only car that I would have bought cash, everything else is a race to the bottom so finance may then make sense. Being able to get the spec I wanted plus extended warranty at a price cheaper than I could import second hand from Germany made no odds. Trick is to not overthink it and just enjoy.

 

[Prycey13]

Totally disagree when it comes to the California..
2nd hand prices are so close to new (with 10-12% discount) that you’re better spending 4/5 grand more, getting new with full 5 year warranty. The newer van will always be worth 3/4 grand more than one thats 1 or 2 years older

From what I’ve seen there’s circa £10-15k difference between a used T6 and a new T6.1 ocean based on a 3 year old T6 with 20k miles. Get your point re warranty but warranty and service packs are transferable to a new owner. Ultimately it comes down to how much you feel comfortable to spend. Spending more than you feel comfortable with and worrying about residual value would take the fun out of ownership imho.

 

[reserves]

From what I’ve seen there’s circa £10-15k difference between a used T6 and a new T6.1 ocean based on a 3 year old T6 with 20k miles. Get your point re warranty but warranty and service packs are transferable to a new owner. Ultimately it comes down to how much you feel comfortable to spend. Spending more than you feel comfortable with and worrying about residual value would take the fun out of ownership imho.

It’s going to be interesting to see what effect the introduction of the Coast has.

For a potential buyer, assuming you could order a Coast and get it delivered in a reasonable time frame.

What would most people choose?

- Brand New T6.1 Coast with a few options £54k.

- Second hand 3 year old T6 Ocean £50k.

I’d choose the new Coast every time, which I believe could push the 2nd hand T6 Ocean prices down a little.

Also will be interesting next year or 2 when 2nd hand Coasts hit the market.