Interest rates

We need to be clear about what has happened over the past decade or so.
House prices increased. Everyone who owns a house has benefited.

Can you please explain how I have benefited by my house price increasing?

If I were to drop dead someone else may benefit, but it makes absolutely no difference to me.
 
Can you please explain how I have benefited by my house price increasing?

If I were to drop dead someone else may benefit, but it makes absolutely no difference to me.
I’m exactly the same, but our total net worth has increased. We are worth more on paper.
 
Can you please explain how I have benefited by my house price increasing?

If I were to drop dead someone else may benefit, but it makes absolutely no difference to me.
I see your point but I suppose you have more equity in your possession?
If you downsized you might be able to buy a new 4M Ocean outright, rather than finance an early Beach?
 
Can you please explain how I have benefited by my house price increasing?

If I were to drop dead someone else may benefit, but it makes absolutely no difference to me.

With the house price increase you could remortgage for a greater amount and have more cash in your pocket to spend before someone else may benefit.
 
With the house price increase you could remortgage for a greater amount and have more cash in your pocket to spend before someone else may benefit.
That's confusing cash with wealth. If my house increases in paper value by £100k and I borrow £100k secured on the equity, I then have a house plus £100k in cash, less a £100k liability, so I'm no better off.
 
I see your point but I suppose you have more equity in your possession?
If you downsized you might be able to buy a new 4M Ocean outright, rather than finance an early Beach?

I had a look at sold prices on Rightmove. One round the corner similar to ours went for £177,000 in March 2013, so I guess that’s about what ours was worth 10 years ago.
Now, maybe £337,000.
So on the house alone we might be worth £160,000 more than we were 10 years ago. On paper.
If house prices were to fall 10% over the next year I suppose we would be worth £33,700 less than we are now. On paper.
All of which bothers me not one iota. It’s our house, we live there.
 
We need to be clear about what has happened over the past decade or so.
House prices increased. Everyone who owns a house has benefited.
Absolutely did. But the main benefit was the economy, second mortgages based on high equity ratios allowed the public to spend on goods and services and added to the nations growth. This is why governments are keen to see prices rise.

The downside is considerable for successive generations. The cost of a roof over your head either through rent or mortgage payments is such an unhealthy fraction of earnings that it leaves little left for spending on goods and services, this will affect growth for many years.

It's like we had all our cake at one 25 year long feast. I suspect its a long time until the country can do that again.
 
That's confusing cash with wealth. If my house increases in paper value by £100k and I borrow £100k secured on the equity, I then have a house plus £100k in cash, less a £100k liability, so I'm no better off.

Yes you are better off, because you can spend the £100,000 cash, die happy, and someone else inherit the liability you created.
 
...second mortgages based on high equity ratios allowed the public to spend on goods and services and added to the nations growth. This is why governments are keen to see prices rise.
And this was a key component of a decades-long debt-fuelled boom rather than one funded by growth in productivity. Political parties in government always favour that of course because it gets votes because people feel richer. Well the ones that own houses anyway, although even those that don't can borrow cheap and buy lots of stuff on the never-never.

Globally, the cheap money decades arose in large part from an unspoken pact between China and the governments of the developed world, especially the USA, in which China''s excess savings were used to fund a consumer spending binge and property bubble. Then after 2008, the US and European governments had to keep the party going, through QE.

Now the party's over (or is it?).
 
The downside is considerable for successive generations. The cost of a roof over your head either through rent or mortgage payments is such an unhealthy fraction of earnings that it leaves little left for spending on goods and services, this will affect growth for many years.

Good way to control a generation too.
 
Now the party's over (or is it?).
I don't think so, just a bit of financial remodelling required.

Assumptions
1. use full ISA allowance each year 2 x £20,000
2. dividends at 3.5%
3. ISA growth at 5% pa

Within a few years the cost of the increase in mortgage interest payments will be covered by ISA dividend payments.


Tables best viewed in a browser not Tapatalk.
2022/2023
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£1,861.50​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£1,511.10​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£1,756.80​
Isa
£0​
£0.00​
Finance cost
£5,129.40​

2023/2024
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£3,118.79​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£2,531.73​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£2,377.80​
Isa
£84,000​
£2,940.00​
Finance cost
£5,088.32​

2024/2025
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£4,879.00​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£3,960.60​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£4,240.80​
Isa
£128,200​
£4,487.00​
Finance cost
£8,593.40​

2025/2026
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£4,879.00​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£3,960.60​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£4,240.80​
Isa
£174,610​
£6,111.35​
Finance cost
£6,969.05​

2026/2027
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£4,879.00​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£3,960.60​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£4,240.80​
Isa
£223,341​
£7,816.92​
Finance cost
£5,263.48​

2027/2028
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£4,879.00​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£3,960.60​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£4,240.80​
Isa
£274,508​
£9,607.76​
Finance cost
£3,472.64​

2028/2029
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£4,879.00​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£3,960.60​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£4,240.80​
Isa
£328,233​
£11,488.15​
Finance cost
£1,592.25​
 
Nice assumptions but are they realistic?

Similarly if I put in £40 or £60k into my pension p.a I benefit from 19% tax saving
 
I don't think so, just a bit of financial remodelling required.

Assumptions
1. use full ISA allowance each year 2 x £20,000
2. dividends at 3.5%
3. ISA growth at 5% pa

Within a few years the cost of the increase in mortgage interest payments will be covered by ISA dividend payments.
Long answer here , short answer below.
Ive just reworked your numbers based on an interest rate for a BTL mortgage at 5.39% - the cheapest rate I could find in a two minute google & applied tax/ tax relief at todays rates & conclude that you would be absolutely bonkers to borrow to invest in an ISA

After 7 years you are still loosing £4k a year & the growth of the ISA has only just crept its value above the mortgage.

In your figures you've paid £280k into the ISA where did the extra £54k magically appear from?





2022/2023 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20 5.39% less 20% tax relief
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28 5.39% less 20% tax relief
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64 5.39% less 20% tax relief
Isa £40,000.00 £945.00 Divi at 3.5% less 32.5tax
Finance cost £(8,800.12)

2023/2024 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £82,000.00 £1,937.25
Finance cost £(7,807.87)

2024/2025 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £126,100.00 £2,979.11
Finance cost £(6,766.01)

2025/2026 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £172,405.00 £4,073.07
Finance cost £(5,672.05)

2026/2027 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £217,979.25 £5,149.76
Finance cost £(4,595.36)

2027/2028 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £228,878.21 £5,407.25
Finance cost £(4,337.87)

2028/2029 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £240,322.12 £5,677.61
Finance cost £(4,067.51)

so take out mortgage on day one for £226,000
year one pay-in ISA £40,000.00
year two pay-in ISA £40,000.00
year Three pay-in ISA £40,000.00
year Four pay-in ISA £40,000.00
year Five pay-in ISA £36,954.00 That’s all that’s left of the cash I borrowed

After 7 years Ive got an ISA worth £240,322 and a £226,000 mortgage
Losing cash at the rate of £4k per year
 
Last edited:
I don't think so, just a bit of financial remodelling required.

Assumptions
1. use full ISA allowance each year 2 x £20,000
2. dividends at 3.5%
3. ISA growth at 5% pa

Within a few years the cost of the increase in mortgage interest payments will be covered by ISA dividend payments.

Short answer, even using your optimistic figures after laying out £36,108 in the interest/dividend shortfall & pumping in an extra £54k into your ISA thats appeared from nowhere you've ended up with an ISA worth £328k and a mortgage of £226k

Total return £328k - £226k - £54k - £36k = £12k in 7 years

Forget the mortgage & invest the £36,108 + the magic £54k in an isa over 2 years & after 7 years it would have compounded up to £104k & you could have had £14k in dividends

Total return £104k+£14k less £54k less £36k = £28k in 7 years
 
Long answer here , short answer below.
Ive just reworked your numbers based on an interest rate for a BTL mortgage at 5.39% - the cheapest rate I could find in a two minute google & applied tax/ tax relief at todays rates & conclude that you would be absolutely bonkers to borrow to invest in an ISA

After 7 years you are still loosing £4k a year & the growth of the ISA has only just crept its value above the mortgage.

In your figures you've paid £280k into the ISA where did the extra £54k magically appear from?





2022/2023 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20 5.39% less 20% tax relief
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28 5.39% less 20% tax relief
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64 5.39% less 20% tax relief
Isa £40,000.00 £945.00 Divi at 3.5% less 32.5tax
Finance cost £(8,800.12)

2023/2024 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £82,000.00 £1,937.25
Finance cost £(7,807.87)

2024/2025 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £126,100.00 £2,979.11
Finance cost £(6,766.01)

2025/2026 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £172,405.00 £4,073.07
Finance cost £(5,672.05)

2026/2027 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £217,979.25 £5,149.76
Finance cost £(4,595.36)

2027/2028 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £228,878.21 £5,407.25
Finance cost £(4,337.87)

2028/2029 Loan/savings value Interest/dividends
Mortgage 1 £85,000.00 £3,665.20
Mortgage 2 £69,000.00 £2,975.28
Mortgage 3 £72,000.00 £3,104.64
Isa £240,322.12 £5,677.61
Finance cost £(4,067.51)

so take out mortgage on day one for £226,000
year one pay-in ISA £40,000.00
year two pay-in ISA £40,000.00
year Three pay-in ISA £40,000.00
year Four pay-in ISA £40,000.00
year Five pay-in ISA £36,954.00 That’s all that’s left of the cash I borrowed

After 7 years Ive got an ISA worth £240,322 and a £226,000 mortgage
Losing cash at the rate of £4k per year

That‘s all wrong. He’s assumed a total return on the ISA of 8.5% ( 5% capital appreciation and 3.5% dividends ) That’s a fair assumption.
If I do it the simple way by compounding £40,000 at 8.5%, I get :
Year 1 £40,000
Year 2 £43,400
Year 3. £47,089
Year 4 £51,091
Year 5 £55,434
Year 6 £60,145
Year 7 £65,257
Total £362,416
 
I don't think so, just a bit of financial remodelling required.

Assumptions
1. use full ISA allowance each year 2 x £20,000
2. dividends at 3.5%
3. ISA growth at 5% pa

Within a few years the cost of the increase in mortgage interest payments will be covered by ISA dividend payments.


Tables best viewed in a browser not Tapatalk.
2022/2023
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£1,861.50​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£1,511.10​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£1,756.80​
Isa
£0​
£0.00​
Finance cost
£5,129.40​

2023/2024
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£3,118.79​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£2,531.73​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£2,377.80​
Isa
£84,000​
£2,940.00​
Finance cost
£5,088.32​

2024/2025
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£4,879.00​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£3,960.60​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£4,240.80​
Isa
£128,200​
£4,487.00​
Finance cost
£8,593.40​

2025/2026
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£4,879.00​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£3,960.60​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£4,240.80​
Isa
£174,610​
£6,111.35​
Finance cost
£6,969.05​

2026/2027
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£4,879.00​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£3,960.60​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£4,240.80​
Isa
£223,341​
£7,816.92​
Finance cost
£5,263.48​

2027/2028
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£4,879.00​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£3,960.60​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£4,240.80​
Isa
£274,508​
£9,607.76​
Finance cost
£3,472.64​

2028/2029
Loan/savings value​
Interest/dividends​
Mortgage 1
£85,000​
£4,879.00​
Mortgage 2
£69,000​
£3,960.60​
Mortgage 3
£72,000​
£4,240.80​
Isa
£328,233​
£11,488.15​
Finance cost
£1,592.25​

Arithmetic seems ok. Can I ask you, what is the yield from the Buy to Let’s ?
To avoid confusion, what I mean is if the current value of the properties was say £1m and the gross rental income was £50,000pa, the yield would be 5%
 
Short answer, even using your optimistic figures after laying out £36,108 in the interest/dividend shortfall & pumping in an extra £54k into your ISA thats appeared from nowhere you've ended up with an ISA worth £328k and a mortgage of £226k

Total return £328k - £226k - £54k - £36k = £12k in 7 years

Forget the mortgage & invest the £36,108 + the magic £54k in an isa over 2 years & after 7 years it would have compounded up to £104k & you could have had £14k in dividends

Total return £104k+£14k less £54k less £36k = £28k in 7 years

What is the 32.5% deduction from the dividend ? There is no deduction.
 
That‘s all wrong. He’s assumed a total return on the ISA of 8.5% ( 5% capital appreciation and 3.5% dividends ) That’s a fair assumption.
If I do it the simple way by compounding £40,000 at 8.5%, I get :
Year 1 £40,000
Year 2 £43,400
Year 3. £47,089
Year 4 £51,091
Year 5 £55,434
Year 6 £60,145
Year 7 £65,257
Total £362,416

I think I am correct.

He's compounded the growth of the ISA at 5% and taken the 3.5% dividends to subsidise the mortgage payment.

Theres also a magic further £54k thats appeared from nowhere to put into the ISA

The 32.5% deduction is tax on dividends, but Ive offset that against the current 20% tax relief on the mortgage payments.
 
Nice assumptions but are they realistic?

Similarly if I put in £40 or £60k into my pension p.a I benefit from 19% tax saving
The dividends and growth are based on long term trends. Not a particularly good indicator for five years, but probably the best indicator available.

The nice feature of an ISA over pension is its flexibility if you want the cash. For example, we still plan to move to the S Coast of Hampshire/W. Sussex in 2025 or 2026, and if we wanted cash to add to the sale of our current home accessing the ISAs would be relatively straightforward.

And as for tax benefits, for every pound I spend on BTL mortgage interest, I get a 20% tax credit.
 
That‘s all wrong. He’s assumed a total return on the ISA of 8.5% ( 5% capital appreciation and 3.5% dividends ) That’s a fair assumption.
If I do it the simple way by compounding £40,000 at 8.5%, I get :
Year 1 £40,000
Year 2 £43,400
Year 3. £47,089
Year 4 £51,091
Year 5 £55,434
Year 6 £60,145
Year 7 £65,257
Total £362,416
Six years not seven. We started with £80,000. £40,000 on or shortly before the 4th April 2023; £18,000 on or shortly after 6th April 2023; then £2,000 per month since.

For simplicity I’ve calculated it as if £80,000 went in all at once in April 2023.
 
The 32.5% deduction is tax on dividends, but Ive offset that against the current 20% tax relief on the mortgage payments.

I‘ve held ISA’s since they existed, before that their predecessors Tessas and PEPs.
When a company declares a dividend, that is what gets paid into the ISA. No tax.
For example Legal and General paid a final dividend of 13.93p per share on 5 June. I held 1000 shares and £139.30 was paid into the ISA. As the ISA is a tax exempt wrapper, I will never pay any tax on it.
 
Arithmetic seems ok. Can I ask you, what is the yield from the Buy to Let’s ?
To avoid confusion, what I mean is if the current value of the properties was say £1m and the gross rental income was £50,000pa, the yield would be 5%
I tend to rent at 20-30% below market value, so my yields are not good - but I have lovely tenants.

Flat 1 £375,000; £1250 pcm; 4%
Market value £1800 pcm

Flat 2 £300,000; £1250 pcm; 5%
Market value £1650 pcm

Flat 3 £300,000; £1175 pcm; 4.7%
Market value £1600 pcm

Valuations and rental values taken from Zoopla’s mid estimates.
 
I think I am correct.

He's compounded the growth of the ISA at 5% and taken the 3.5% dividends to subsidise the mortgage payment.

Theres also a magic further £54k thats appeared from nowhere to put into the ISA

The 32.5% deduction is tax on dividends, but Ive offset that against the current 20% tax relief on the mortgage payments.
There is no magic.

Clare and I are buying income trackers for our ISAs. Dividends are paid out not reinvested. This is different from what we are doing for the boys where dividends are automatically reinvested.

The boys get ~8.5% growth.

We hope to get ~5% growth plus ~3.5% income. It’s a best guess.

I have not accounted for the 20% tax credit. You seemed to get upset when I last mentioned it, so I simply ignored it this time.

ISAs are a completely tax free wrapper for savings. No tax on dividend income or capital growth.
 
I tend to rent at 20-30% below market value, so my yields are not good - but I have lovely tenants.

Flat 1 £375,000; £1250 pcm; 4%
Market value £1800 pcm

Flat 2 £300,000; £1250 pcm; 5%
Market value £1650 pcm

Flat 3 £300,000; £1175 pcm; 4.7%
Market value £1600 pcm

Valuations and rental values taken from Zoopla’s mid estimates.

OMG, Amarillo, that is a pathetic return. It‘s less than your borrowing cost.
Listen, you have done fantastically well with your buy to let’s and I congratulate you on your timing.
Now you have to let go and get out of Dodge.
Why are you keeping them ? Sentimental attachment, loyalty to your tenants, I don’t know.
No businessman I have ever known would borrow money to sink into that business. Let it go.
 

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