Is there increasing resistance against EV’s?

[RodCouncil]

I'd say the ID3s we used on Aimo share here in Sweden were of low build quality, fit and finish. The only saving grace for us using them was CarPlay and the heated steering wheel. The plastics, wear and tear of the interior facias was worrying for such new cars, battery range and sluggishness of the motor were also huge downsides, when you look at the sticker price v's competition, it just isn't a competitive product.

Software has actually improved and as stated, with Carplay you have a big get of jail card, but it cannot be compared on autonomy to most rivals, because it has none, so safety and relaxed driving on longer trips is still stuck in the naughties.

BTW I love the look of the ID Buzz and I can see the lure (my heart would jump at one), but I'm in two minds with VW, I still love the brand and the buses, but I fear they are a spent force and it's going to weaken quickly if this is how it approaches electrification and reliance on dealerships.

 

[California_Ocean]

Really boring..
Electric supercars are something I cannot understand, yes they might
be very fast for a short time but they will end up in the same drawer as
my iPhone 1st generation, can't keep up with the updates and then the battery explodes
a bit, swelling, giving the appearance of a fat back.
They're barking up the wrong tree.
I'm not anti Ev, I would have a Tesla if I was forced to have one.

You really think electric cars have the same battery and software technology as 1st gen iPhones? ... sorry, not a valid argument.

I guess if we were having this discussion a century ago you would have stuck with your horse and cart? Bah humbug!

 

[WestSussexSpike]

Why on earth do we resort to so much hostility pointing to the very worst cases?

Yes, so we may be heading towards a world of less car ownership. Where does this entitlement come from ..."I MUST have a car"? For 15 years of my life car ownership was the luxury of a rich minority., We managed. I managed. I used feet rather than fossil fuels.Yes we need an integrated and efficient public service network but let no one delude themselves, Yes that in the 1950's that existed. It was crap. We put up with crap and managed.

What is so wrong with EV's? I have one. I do not see it as a panacea for saving the world, they are too limited to replace what we have now in the circumstance that exists today where we all MUST (entitled?) to have a car. However they work for me, without me waving a great virtue signalling flag. They work for me because of my personal circumstance. To believe they will work for every car owner is total delusion.

Why do we so decry public investment in infrastructure? It soaks up a lot of unemployment, gets lots of people contributing towards it by paying taxes and allows us as as a nation work more efficiently. My tax burden is the lowest it has been since I first went to work in 1963. This country invented railways, we were the crucible of the Industrial Revolution, we used to be internationally renowned for our engineering expertise, do we really believe its todays efforts that make Britain so rich rather than that of our predecessors who invested so much in this country's infrastructure?

Above all, why do we believe today's status quo is so inviolate? Every adherence to status quo is an adherence to tomorrow's decay. Why can't we accept that tomorrow is going to be different to today and it is those with alternative opinions that represent the possible learning opportunity?

Well said! Thank you for writing one of the most eloquent and well reasoned posts on this forum.

 

[GrannyJen]

I'd say the ID3s we used on Aimo share here in Sweden were of low build quality, fit and finish. The only saving grace for us using them was CarPlay and the heated steering wheel. The plastics, wear and tear of the interior facias was worrying for such new cars, battery range and sluggishness of the motor were also huge downsides, when you look at the sticker price v's competition, it just isn't a competitive product.

Software has actually improved and as stated, with Carplay you have a big get of jail card, but it cannot be compared on autonomy to most rivals, because it has none, so safety and relaxed driving on longer trips is still stuck in the naughties.

BTW I love the look of the ID Buzz and I can see the lure (my heart would jump at one), but I'm in two minds with VW, I still love the brand and the buses, but I fear they are a spent force and it's going to weaken quickly if this is how it approaches electrification and reliance on dealerships.

I have a Cupra which is basically a tweaked VW ID. The catastrophic software is much improved, I really have no grumbles with it but the first two incarnations were so dreadful it left me, and I'm sure millions of others, scratching my head wondering "how did it happen!".

Sadly I looked at an ID3 before the Cupra and the cheap looking interior is still there.

As a car though I love it. A very adequate performance and pin-point handling. Loads of room inside, quiet, comfortable, really a nice place to be.

 

[RodCouncil]

I have a Cupra which is basically a tweaked VW ID. The catastrophic software is much improved, I really have no grumbles with it but the first two incarnations were so dreadful it left me, and I'm sure millions of others, scratching my head wondering "how did it happen!".

Sadly I looked at an ID3 before the Cupra and the cheap looking interior is still there.

As a car though I love it. A very adequate performance and pin-point handling. Loads of room inside, quiet, comfortable, really a nice place to be.

Yeah the Cupra is the way to go, also means the MEB platform can still underpin a nicer vehicle. I really enjoyed Jonnys review on the Late Brake show when he did his Wales, Ireland and Scotland tour.

 

[Marlborough22]

We've had 2 evs, starting with a 140 mile range eGolf that we bought new with good discount & sold a year ago after 5k miles for same price to a garage - so great retained value. Range was main issue as we nearly always charge at home. Cost then was about 2p/ mile, garage bills minimal as you hardly use the brakes, no oil change etc. That car did over 5 miles per kWhr, new one is Ioniq5 so 320 mile range but heavier & does 4 miles per kWhr. Can charge from 20% to 80% in 18' if you can find a 350kW charger - more will come.

Yes there is a carbon cost to EV manufacture, but so there is to IC cars. Some say you are doing better carbon wise after 7000 miles, others 15000 miles - depends on the source of electricity used to charge + what you compare it with. See this uk govt site:

Common misconceptions about electric vehicles (accessible web version)

www.gov.uk

 

[Cali Phillip]

Not according to the HS2 Route Map on the HS2 website. It shows Euston.

View attachment 104625

Glasgow as potential HS2 destinations, not see that in my lifetime !
There's hardly any EV changing capacity for the numbers of tourists that come north of Glasgow every year nor has the train infrastructure changed much since the west coast line opened in 1894, single line, 40MPH max still.

 

[Cali Phillip]

He’s been watching too much Black Mirror…

Is that why he is on GB news ?

 

[GrannyJen]

Yeah the Cupra is the way to go, also means the MEB platform can still underpin a nicer vehicle. I really enjoyed Jonnys review on the Late Brake show when he did his Wales, Ireland and Scotland tour.

Thank you for mentioning that, I had never heard of that channel. I liked his review. It is always nice when someone that knows what they are talking about confirms my own opinions.

Nothing to do with VW but everything to do with the trend in electric cars. That great big I pad in the middle. Why? Too much information, too many choices, too much complexity and too much of a potential distraction. Just my p.o.v but almost every EV I have looked at seems to be intent on giving you more to play with than anyone else which I find a complete pain in the proverbial.

 

[RodCouncil]

Thank you for mentioning that, I had never heard of that channel. I liked his review. It is always nice when someone that knows what they are talking about confirms my own opinions.

Nothing to do with VW but everything to do with the trend in electric cars. That great big I pad in the middle. Why? Too much information, too many choices, too much complexity and too much of a potential distraction. Just my p.o.v but almost every EV I have looked at seems to be intent on giving you more to play with than anyone else which I find a complete pain in the proverbial.

I agree, but one nice thing Tesla did was move the things you actually need to wheel scrollers and the voice recognition is very good in my experience so I just told it do the things I wanted, plus you can customise the bottom menu on the big screen and add the items you use most (same as the iphone icons)..

But mostly the lack of buttons and almost anything non essential is what drives this.....profit.

Charted: Tesla’s Unrivaled Profit Margins

This infographic compares Tesla's impressive profit margins to various Western and Chinese competitors.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[Borris]

You really think electric cars have the same battery and software technology as 1st gen iPhones? ... sorry, not a valid argument.

I guess if we were having this discussion a century ago you would have stuck with your horse and cart? Bah humbug!

They had EVs a hundred years ago. They weren't the answer then either.

 

[Wildcamper]

They had EVs a hundred years ago. They weren't the answer then either.

EVs have a place in towns and cities where air quality is a health issue and they do provide a comfortable and safe driving environment. They are not necessary outside of areas with air quality issues and the 2030 ICE ban is nothing more than a poorly considered political gesture.

 

[California_Ocean]

They had EVs a hundred years ago. They weren't the answer then either.

Electric vehicles were slightly different 100 years ago and electric vehicles from last century didn't all fail - there were niche products - milk floats, golf carts, and warehouse fork-lifts were a success because of their specific use-cases.

Today, like it or not, electric vehicles are here to stay.

History is littered with failed products and ideas which were introduced before their time - before the materials, the technology, the applications or even the political landscape were there to result in a useful product. We get this kind of argument at work all the time, "we've already tried that and it failed", usually from the employees near retirement .... the key questions to ask are "Why did it fail last time?" and "What has changed to make it different this time round?"

Most ideas are thought of, and tried, long before they become commercially viable. We had personal digital assistants PDAs long before the internet - they were supposed to replace the filofax ... and they failed miserably - a niche product for nerds. Only when the content for devices became available did they take off, and now everyone has one. Nobody realised that it was content consumption that was the key to their success - but the industry kept trying and they eventually took off exponentially.

Where would we be if the aviation industry had said, "The Wright brothers tried this flying lark back in 1903 and it was pretty s**t - planes are not the answer to international travel - let's give up and go home"

 

[California_Ocean]

I agree, but one nice thing Tesla did was move the things you actually need to wheel scrollers and the voice recognition is very good in my experience so I just told it do the things I wanted, plus you can customise the bottom menu on the big screen and add the items you use most (same as the iphone icons)..

But mostly the lack of buttons and almost anything non essential is what drives this.....profit.

Charted: Tesla’s Unrivaled Profit Margins

This infographic compares Tesla's impressive profit margins to various Western and Chinese competitors.

www.visualcapitalist.com

If you look at the details of that chart, it is a bit misleading. Tesla have cut prices to defend their market share - and they do occupy the high end of the EV price range. The rest are at the cheaper end of the market - there are no BMW, Porsche, Merc or high-end vehicles in that chart. GM, Ford etc. operate in the mass-market "killing fields" of the automotive market. Huge volumes and marginal profit whether it is an ICE or EV. (ICE = Internal Combustion Engine)

Tesla was founded and ran for 17 years before turning any profits. 2020 was the first year they became profitable.
Tesla also profits from "regulatory emissions credits" for producing EVs instead of ICE cars. When ICE automakers such as GM, Ford or Volkswagen fall short of low- and zero-emission production requirements in a given country, they can buy these credits from Tesla - directly contributing to Teslas profits. This category is listed with auto sales in Teslas financial reports - so much of their profit is through government support for EVs.

Throughout 2021, Tesla earned about $1.46 billion in regulatory emissions credits. Over time, Tesla won’t be able to rely on these credits as other automakers begin producing their own EVs at scale.

 

[reserves]

If you look at the details of that chart, it is a bit misleading. Tesla have cut prices to defend their market share - and they do occupy the high end of the EV price range. The rest are at the cheaper end of the market - there are no BMW, Porsche, Merc or high-end vehicles in that chart. GM, Ford etc. operate in the mass-market "killing fields" of the automotive market. Huge volumes and marginal profit whether it is an ICE or EV. (ICE = Internal Combustion Engine)

Tesla was founded and ran for 17 years before turning any profits. 2020 was the first year they became profitable.
Tesla also profits from "regulatory emissions credits" for producing EVs instead of ICE cars. When ICE automakers such as GM, Ford or Volkswagen fall short of low- and zero-emission production requirements in a given country, they can buy these credits from Tesla - directly contributing to Teslas profits. This category is listed with auto sales in Teslas financial reports - so much of their profit is through government support for EVs.

Throughout 2021, Tesla earned about $1.46 billion in regulatory emissions credits. Over time, Tesla won’t be able to rely on these credits as other automakers begin producing their own EVs at scale.

I’m not sure of the point you’re trying to make making here?

 

[Cali Phillip]

EVs have a place in towns and cities where air quality is a health issue and they do provide a comfortable and safe driving environment. They are not necessary outside of areas with air quality issues and the 2030 ICE ban is nothing more than a poorly considered political gesture.

Thats said if we dont have a target to hold governments to then little will happen.
Look no further than the air quality in city’s above legal limits, dump raw sewage into the sea and little actual action from the COP summits. We don’t even do basic things like insulation of homes.to reduce fuel poverty.
We need to take matters like climate change which is a long term project into a cross party system to tackle this and take the short term 5yrs jam today and jam before next election culture of Government cycles in this country out of it.

 

[California_Ocean]

I’m not sure of the point you’re trying to make making here?

Two companies on the chart were start-ups ... Tesla didn't make a profit for 17 years so the comparison is pointless.

The other companies on the chart are competing in different market segments to Tesla - where the profit margins are smaller - only the Model 3/Y comes close to the price of GM or Ford offerings ... the Model S and Model X are well into Porsche Taycan territory but no Porsche, BMW or Mercedes comparisons? How can they claim "Tesla’s Unrivaled Profit Margins" when there clearly are rivals if you include manufacturers with an equivalently priced portfolio.

I find the title of the article misleading, hype for Tesla fans no doubt - and the long-term prognosis doesn't look that great as the rivals reel Tesla in and eventually surpass them.

 

[reserves]

Two companies on the chart were start-ups ... Tesla didn't make a profit for 17 years so the comparison is pointless.

The other companies on the chart are competing in different market segments to Tesla - where the profit margins are smaller - only the Model 3/Y comes close to the price of GM or Ford offerings ... the Model S and Model X are well into Porsche Taycan territory but no Porsche, BMW or Mercedes comparisons? How can they claim "Tesla’s Unrivaled Profit Margins" when there clearly are rivals if you include manufacturers with an equivalently priced portfolio.

I find the title of the article misleading, hype for Tesla fans no doubt - and the long-term prognosis doesn't look that great as the rivals reel Tesla in and eventually surpass them.

The first points are well made, however in what way do the long-term prognosis not look great?

The mention of regulatory credits points to old data and isn’t relevant to Tesla anymore which is why I questioned your post.

Who are these rivals you mention? Ford, VW, Rivian, BYD, VW, GM? Have you had a look at how they’re doing?

 

[RodCouncil]

If you look at the details of that chart, it is a bit misleading. Tesla have cut prices to defend their market share - and they do occupy the high end of the EV price range. The rest are at the cheaper end of the market - there are no BMW, Porsche, Merc or high-end vehicles in that chart. GM, Ford etc. operate in the mass-market "killing fields" of the automotive market. Huge volumes and marginal profit whether it is an ICE or EV. (ICE = Internal Combustion Engine)

Tesla was founded and ran for 17 years before turning any profits. 2020 was the first year they became profitable.
Tesla also profits from "regulatory emissions credits" for producing EVs instead of ICE cars. When ICE automakers such as GM, Ford or Volkswagen fall short of low- and zero-emission production requirements in a given country, they can buy these credits from Tesla - directly contributing to Teslas profits. This category is listed with auto sales in Teslas financial reports - so much of their profit is through government support for EVs.

Throughout 2021, Tesla earned about $1.46 billion in regulatory emissions credits. Over time, Tesla won’t be able to rely on these credits as other automakers begin producing their own EVs at scale.

Or you can just read the Q4 earnings report and see credits make hardly a dent in their revenue and GP comes from their automotive and energy side of the business.

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/SVCPTV_2022_Q4_Quarterly_Update_6UDS97.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22b7871185-dd6a-4d79-9c3b-19b497227f2a.pdf%22

 

[RodCouncil]

Two companies on the chart were start-ups ... Tesla didn't make a profit for 17 years so the comparison is pointless.

The other companies on the chart are competing in different market segments to Tesla - where the profit margins are smaller - only the Model 3/Y comes close to the price of GM or Ford offerings ... the Model S and Model X are well into Porsche Taycan territory but no Porsche, BMW or Mercedes comparisons? How can they claim "Tesla’s Unrivaled Profit Margins" when there clearly are rivals if you include manufacturers with an equivalently priced portfolio.

I find the title of the article misleading, hype for Tesla fans no doubt - and the long-term prognosis doesn't look that great as the rivals reel Tesla in and eventually surpass them.

It is very high level and focused on volume EV makers, Mercedes and Porsche are niche brands and then you'd need a graphic that drills into the segments.

The actual point was about overall profitability of the vehicle, and in Teslas case the first mover advantage and incredible innovation now finally paying off by not following the Automotive status quo,

 

[California_Ocean]

The first points are well made, however in what way do the long-term prognosis not look great?

The mention of regulatory credits points to old data and isn’t relevant to Tesla anymore which is why I questioned your post.

Who are these rivals you mention? Ford, VW, Rivian, BYD, VW, GM? Have you had a look at how they’re doing?

Sorry for posting the 2021 data, Tesla carbon credit sales were $1.78 billion in 2022, so these are included in their figures ...

Tesla Carbon Credit Sales Reach Record $1.78 Billion in 2022

Tesla’s carbon credit sales are making headlines again as it reached a new record in 2022. The company reported that Q4 carbon credit sales jumped 47% year ov

carboncredits.com

The rivals are the manufacturers who operate in the mid to luxury segments, Porsche, Mercedes, BMW etc. which all have ROI targets on their products of somewhere between 15 and 20% ... a 15% profit on a 50K car is 7,5K which is much closer to Teslas profit, without being influenced by regulatory emissions credits.

The carbon credit market is explained here .. .

Complete Manufacturing & Custom Cable Assembly | SINBON

SINBON is the most trusted partner for custom cable assemblies and connectivity solutions.

www.sinbon.com

Price cuts and the scaling back of the carbon credit market as mainstream manufacturers switch to EVs will put a real squeeze on Tesla.

 

[reserves]

Tesla carbon credit sales were $1.78 billion in 2022, so these are included in their figures ...

Yes, $1.78 billion was 2% of overall revenue.

2%…..

The rivals are the manufacturers who operate in the mid to luxury segments, Porsche, Mercedes, BMW etc. which all have ROI targets on their products of somewhere between 15 and 20% ... a 15% profit on a 50K car is 7,5K which is much closer to Teslas profit, without being influenced by regulatory emissions credits.

Your argument is based on ROI ‘targets’? Targets?

If so then you have to compare targets of the other companies, Tesla target to sell 1.8m electric cars in 2023.

If legacy auto are making anywhere near these margins these are in ICE vehicle sales which are going one way and it’s not up….

The interesting thing is how the legacy manufacturers are going to persuade people to buy their out of date technology which make profits (ICE vehicles) whilst also persuading them to buy their loss making EV’s whilst trying to stay in business.

 

[RodCouncil]

Two companies on the chart were start-ups ... Tesla didn't make a profit for 17 years so the comparison is pointless.

The other companies on the chart are competing in different market segments to Tesla - where the profit margins are smaller - only the Model 3/Y comes close to the price of GM or Ford offerings ... the Model S and Model X are well into Porsche Taycan territory but no Porsche, BMW or Mercedes comparisons? How can they claim "Tesla’s Unrivaled Profit Margins" when there clearly are rivals if you include manufacturers with an equivalently priced portfolio.

I find the title of the article misleading, hype for Tesla fans no doubt - and the long-term prognosis doesn't look that great as the rivals reel Tesla in and eventually surpass them.

One interesting thing Tesla have been doing is deferring revenue on FSD and releasing this into quarterly statements in tranches, I mean this is where the real business is, in AI and Autonomy alongside energy, net profit on a huge part the existing sold fleet has huge potential (like selling the vehicle again but with none of the costs).

The sad truth is that Tesla has no rivals outside of China, and this is bad for the market in general, competition should be encouraged, they even try to enable this themselves with open patents because it's the IP in the tech that matters, therr cars are always being torn down and inspected by rivals and the competitors understand the stranded assets are their production facilities and software divisions, not their current models regardless of segment or drive train.

 

[RodCouncil]

Yes, $1.78 billion was 2% of overall revenue.

2%…..




Your argument is based on ROI ‘targets’? Targets?

If so then you have to compare targets of the other companies, Tesla target to sell 1.8m electric cars in 2023.

If legacy auto are making anywhere near these margins these are in ICE vehicle sales which are going one way and it’s not up….

The interesting thing is how the legacy manufacturers are going to persuade people to buy their out of date technology which make profits (ICE vehicles) whilst also persuading them to buy their loss making EV’s whilst trying to stay in business.

Life cycle in the US for car purchases is 5-7 years, I wonder what someone driving an ICE car will choose and what brands will even be around at the scale they are today.

 

[California_Ocean]

Or you can just read the Q4 earnings report and see credits make hardly a dent in their revenue and GP comes from their automotive and energy side of the business.

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/SVCPTV_2022_Q4_Quarterly_Update_6UDS97.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22b7871185-dd6a-4d79-9c3b-19b497227f2a.pdf%22

Tesla have cut their sales price by 20% since the chart was created, the carbon credits are paid by manufacturers like GM to Tesla. So the GM profit is atrificially lowered due to buying carbon credits and Tesla is artificially raised.

In the link you posted, automotive gross profit was $20,354 of which $1,776 (9%) came from carbon credits paid by other manufacturers. Carbon credits are pure profit, there are no manufacturing or material costs associated with them and they will disappear over time.