PCP and depreciation

[Lightning]

Amazon Will Buy 100,000 Rivian Electric Delivery Trucks
September 19, 2019 by Jerry Hirsch, @Jerryhirsch

Illustration of future Rivian electric delivery truck for Amazon. (Credit: Amazon)

In a move to slash carbon emissions, Amazon will purchase 100,000 Rivian electric trucks that will start service as early as 2021.
The giant retailer plans to have 10,000 of the new electric vehicles on the road as early as 2022. That would save 4 million metric tons of carbon per year by 2030, said Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and chief executive.

Rivian is an electric vehicle startup based in Plymouth, Mich. that is developing a line of electric pickups and SUVs. It will build the vehicles at a 2.6-million-square-foot former Mitsubishi assembly plant in Normal., Ill., that it bought in a 2017 liquidation sale for $16 million.
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“It’s clearly a significant commitment that almost ensures Rivian makes it past the starting line,” said Michael Ramsey, senior research director at Gartner Inc. “The contract helps subsidize investment in the plant and gives certainty to banks that they can lend the company money for working capital.”
THE CLIMATE PLEDGE

Jeff Bezos. (Photo: Amazon)
Bezos announced the large order Thursday as Amazon became the first company to sign The Climate Pledge, a commitment to meet the Paris Climate Agreement 10 years early. The pledge requires companies to have net-zero carbon emissions by 2040. Bezos said Amazon also would transition to using 100 percent renewable energy by 2030.
“We’re done being in the middle of the herd on this issue — we’ve decided to use our size and scale to make a difference,” Bezos said. “If a company with as much physical infrastructure as Amazon—which delivers more than 10 billion items a year — can meet the Paris Agreement 10 years early, then any company can.”
GIANT ORDER
Amazon’s order for Rivian electric delivery vans is the largest order ever for electric delivery vehicles. It provides the startup with volume manufacturing that will provide a foundation for production and drive down expenses.
“With a skateboard platform that is specifically engineered to support multiple top hats, they could potentially grab some more business from other delivery companies like FedEx, UPS and DHL,” said Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Navigant Research.
“Now that they see Amazon committing in a big way to electrification they may also want to leverage the operating cost advantages of an EV in order to keep pace,” he said.
Earlier this year Amazon led a $700 million investment round and Ford put $500 million into Rivian. Bezos said Amazon’s investment amounted to $440 million. Earlier this month Rivian landed a $350 million investment from Cox Automotive, the owner of Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book.
That latest investment brings Rivian’s valuation to about $3.5 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. That mean’s Amazon owns about 13 percent of the electric vehicle company. Rivian told Trucks.com it is neither providing nor commenting on valuation estimates.
Rivian has entered the final stages of testing its R1T pickup as it nears launching full-scale production in 2020. It also will build the R1S SUV.
THE ELECTRIC TRUCK
The R1T pickup is designed for both everyday transit and as a capable adventure-ready off-roader.
Rivian has optimized the truck for off-roading. Each wheel is powered by an independent electric motor. The truck’s axles and the standard air suspension will allow for 10.6-inches of articulation at each corner.
The truck has five ride heights that accommodate situations where the vehicle must climb over rocks or lower itself to clear branches.
Rivian said the truck will go from zero to 60 mph in 3 seconds. The truck promises at least an 11,000-pound towing capacity.
LONG RANGE
Rivian will have a 400-mile range in its top-tier truck and SUV models. The R1T will come with a choice of 105 kW, 135kW or 180kW battery packs. Those equate to about 230 miles, over 300 miles and over 400 miles of range. Rivian predicts that using a DC fast charger, owners can get 200 miles of range in 30 minutes.
The company has designed the vehicles around Level 3 self-driving technology. That is the industry label for cars that can drive themselves with occasional human intervention.
Pricing for the R1T starts at $69,000. The R1S starting price is $72,500. The company has previously said it expects six of its models to be on sale by 2025.

 

[WelshGas]

Interesting but exactly what has this to do with PCP?

 

[Lightning]

Interesting but exactly what has this to do with PCP?

The guaranteed future value may be linked to the rate of EV technology development. It may or may not make PCP a safer financial bet. Wingingit was concerned before he stormed off.

 

[DJCWORCS]

A Cali is for life, not just the first year of the roaring 20s

Seriously though,mine is 2010 and I specced it with just about every extra that was available, plus dealer and brandrup extras. Close on 80K miles now.

Have never considered residuals, as I intended to keep it long term. Now I don’t even think about it’s value, as after 10 years it’s ‘free’ as in wine you laid down &
bought long ago, and now drink, the cost forgotten.

Some info that may assist - I have a 2007 manual 140bp SE that I bought 4 years ago. It's residual value is still the same as I paid for it. It had 88k miles on it when purchased and 105k miles now. I'm regularly asked if I want to sell it (No to that). When purchased I started down the conversion route but quickly realised the Cali was a better vehicle - I had no thought at the time about it's residual value. Good luck.

 

[StefanTaylor61]

As I've mentioned elsewhere, I'm thinking of buying a camper conversion but started wondering about buying a California as I'd heard they retain their value really well.

But I've just seen this PCP example - https://www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/en/buy-a-van/offers/california-offers.html

Now, unless I totally misunderstand PCP, the final payment is the finance company's guess of the worst case resale value at the end of the PCP. Because it's their worst case scenario, often vehicles do a bit better leaving you with a few thousand left as a deposit when you trade in. So, in this particular case, VW are saying that the California may have lost almost 50% of its value in 3 years with a low mileage. Even if that's conservative, let's say it actually loses 40%, that is still eye-watering depreciation. £25,000-ish lost to depreciation in 3 years would render buying a California a complete non-starter for me anyway.

 

[StefanTaylor61]

As I've mentioned elsewhere, I'm thinking of buying a camper conversion but started wondering about buying a California as I'd heard they retain their value really well.

But I've just seen this PCP example - https://www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/en/buy-a-van/offers/california-offers.html

Now, unless I totally misunderstand PCP, the final payment is the finance company's guess of the worst case resale value at the end of the PCP. Because it's their worst case scenario, often vehicles do a bit better leaving you with a few thousand left as a deposit when you trade in. So, in this particular case, VW are saying that the California may have lost almost 50% of its value in 3 years with a low mileage. Even if that's conservative, let's say it actually loses 40%, that is still eye-watering depreciation. £25,000-ish lost to depreciation in 3 years would render buying a California a complete non-starter for me anyway.

In the long run-up to buying a T6 Cali I looked at all the figures/depreciation etc, and it's hard to justify financially, but it is easy to justify in other ways eg. the cost in terms of missed opportunity if you don't do it!

 

[The Poets]

As with anything, you buy what you can afford. If you can’t afford one, or are going to fret about it and not enjoy it...there’s your answer.

 

[momo44]

I really wanted an electric van. Really. I have had my hands up to the elbows in the engines of my cars since I was 16, so I know well the change which is coming. But, I’m in my 60’s, and only use my van for mountain trips, 30,000km a year, no city driving. The change is just not coming soon enough for me. Oh, and I’m going to Morocco in March.

From Spain to Morocco with an electric van? Don't even dream about it!!

 

[GrannyJen]

All choice is an individual one, all comments on here are individual and all individuals are entitled to voice their opinion.

From my individual point of view, I do not make occasional long trips in my Cali. It is our main vehicle, I have just completed a 120 mile journey today. I will be here, commuting 60 miles a day, for the next 5 days then going home again before, in three weeks time, setting off for a 450 mile journey.

This is why I have no qualms whatsoever about buying a diesel Cali. The choice is not between an Electric or diesel Cali, the choice is Do I want a camper? If the answer to that is yes I simply do not see the technology of any form of alternative fuel being so imminent it would affect the residuals of a Diesel Cali bought today.

Tesla are making great strides in battery technology. A lightweight passenger car built around battery technology is capable of producing quite long ranges. However it is not a 3 ton commercial vehicle built to carry quite literally the kitchen sink.

I have no hatred for EV's. I've just spent the best part of a month trying to persuade my sister to change her diesel BMW for one. I just, from my own individual perspective, do not see a debate on residuals today being threatened by Electric technology. I would have more fear of todays Electric technology being threatened tomorrow.

 

[Lightning]

The electric camper is coming. VW have been working on it for a while. The ID Buzz is a camper concept after all.

Back in 1970, when Volkswagen first set up its Centre for Future Research, Kalberlah’s job was to work in a small team to develop a ‘powertrain for the future’. As an electro-chemist with a speciality in battery research, Kalberlah was ideally placed to help advance electric cars. He and his ten-man team’s research soon started getting results, and it wasn’t long before they had developed a battery system. From here it took just two years before the electrically driven T2 Camper was brought to the road.

This does all beg the question – why were Volkswagen working on electric vehicles as early as 1970? The answer is that back then it was assumed that oil would be completely used up by the 1990s. Other measures to prepare for this eventuality were already in place in West Germany at the time, including ‘Car-free Sundays’.
As we now know, predictions of a total oil outage were wide of the mark. Nevertheless, the T2 Camper still became a much loved city car. With one charge, drivers could travel for around 70 kilometres. Charging was simple too. All the driver needed was a charging cable and a standard 220-volt socket and they were good to go. It was a revolutionary achievement. But as with most technology in its infancy, there was a drawback. The green motor weighed almost a tonne, meaning that maintaining the battery was a real challenge. The team’s solution was a piece of quick-change technology that enabled a flat battery to be swiftly replaced by a new one.
Profile of the T2 Camper
T2 Camper with an electric drive

Top speed: 70 km/h
Range: approx. 70 kilometres
Battery weight from lead accumulators: 850 kilos
Charging time: ten hours
Kerb weight of the electric T2 Transporter (1972): 2.2 tonnes

Battery weight for the electric Transporter: 850 kg
(heavier than the Beetle at the time)
With battery: over 3 tonnes

 

[Lightning]

Due for release in 2022 according to VW.

Volkswagen Showcar ID. BUZZ, Pebble Beach01
The I.D. BUZZ is a Volkswagen van of the next generation. It transfers the feeling of freedom given by the legendary Microbus to the next era of mobility. In technical terms, the study, with a power output of 275 kW, is based on the All-New Electric Architecture. Its electric range is up to 600 km (NEDC). The four-wheel-drive I.D. BUZZ can be charged either inductively or via a charging station. The Volkswagen is also the world’s first versatile electric van with a fully automated driving mode. Like all I.D. models, the I.D. BUZZ , with its open space – the interior of the future – ensures better space utilization than all current vehicles. The production version of the I.D. BUZZ , which is almost five meters long, is due to be launched in 2022.

 

[Joker 1299]

Due for release in 2022 according to VW.

Volkswagen Showcar ID. BUZZ, Pebble Beach01
The I.D. BUZZ is a Volkswagen van of the next generation. It transfers the feeling of freedom given by the legendary Microbus to the next era of mobility. In technical terms, the study, with a power output of 275 kW, is based on the All-New Electric Architecture. Its electric range is up to 600 km (NEDC). The four-wheel-drive I.D. BUZZ can be charged either inductively or via a charging station. The Volkswagen is also the world’s first versatile electric van with a fully automated driving mode. Like all I.D. models, the I.D. BUZZ , with its open space – the interior of the future – ensures better space utilization than all current vehicles. The production version of the I.D. BUZZ , which is almost five meters long, is due to be launched in 2022.

Have they actually said that the Buzz will be available as a camper? I’ve only ever seen the people carrier layout.

 

[Lightning]

This is what they say....

The ID. Buzz is brimming with big ideas. A van, a mobile living space, or a creative hub - it can be almost anything you want it to be. One of our big ideas in the ID. Buzz is the variable space concept. This innovative interior design opens up new space for you and your family. Thanks to the AR head-up display, finding even the most remote spot is much easier. Enjoy the freedom to discover the great outdoors and sleep under the stars; head to the coast to feel the sand between your toes; or simply visit an old stomping ground. When the ID. Buzz welcomes you with your personalised greeting, it’s an invitation to explore.

 

[Joker 1299]

This is what they say....

The ID. Buzz is brimming with big ideas. A van, a mobile living space, or a creative hub - it can be almost anything you want it to be. One of our big ideas in the ID. Buzz is the variable space concept. This innovative interior design opens up new space for you and your family. Thanks to the AR head-up display, finding even the most remote spot is much easier. Enjoy the freedom to discover the great outdoors and sleep under the stars; head to the coast to feel the sand between your toes; or simply visit an old stomping ground. When the ID. Buzz welcomes you with your personalised greeting, it’s an invitation to explore.

So no then.

 

[Lightning]

So no then.

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/electric/id/id-family/id-buzz

 

[Amarillo]

So no then.

I wonder if it will be a modular design. You buy the basic vehicle with two front seats and can add bits to the rails in the rear:
1 or 2 bench seats
Single chairs
A bench folding into a bed
Kitchen
Wardrobe
Laptop desk
Table

 

[Lightning]

I wonder if it will be a modular design. You buy the basic vehicle with two front seats and can add bits to the rails in the rear:
1 or 2 bench seats
Single chairs
A bench folding into a bed
Kitchen
Wardrobe
Laptop desk
Table

Sounds like it.
Pop top?

 

[Joker 1299]

I wonder if it will be a modular design. You buy the basic vehicle with two front seats and can add bits to the rails in the rear:
1 or 2 bench seats
Single chairs
A bench folding into a bed
Kitchen
Wardrobe
Laptop desk
Table

Pop-top?

 

[Lightning]

The first iPhone was released in June 2007. It is now completely obsolete. Nobody uses a 1st generation phone, yet old cars are common. I wonder what the life cycle of an electric car will be, considering that electronics seem to develop and improve so fast.
I think leasing of EV campers as opposed to ownership will probably become normal.

 

[Lightning]

VW eCrafter and Mercedes eSprinter are both due this year according to this article;

UK electric van maker Arrival secures £340m order from UPS
US delivery company order the latest sign of the rapid growth of the manufacturer
Jasper Jolly
Published: 22:05 Wednesday, 29 January 2020
Follow Jasper Jolly
Electric van maker Arrival has secured a €400m (£339m) order for 10,000 vehicles from United Parcel Service (UPS), the US delivery company, in the latest sign of the rapid growth of the UK-based manufacturer.
The purpose-built electric vans will be rolled out in the UK, Europe and North America starting this year and continuing until 2024, with UPS retaining the option to purchase another 10,000.
In practice the total value of vehicles bought by UPS could increase to as much as €600m, a source said, depending on how many larger or longer-range vans it required.
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UPS will also take an equity stake of an undisclosed size in Arrival, after working with the company on early trials. The stake is not thought to be on the same scale as the €100m investment made by South Korean companies Hyundai and Kia earlier this month, which gave Arrival “unicorn” status, with a valuation of £3bn.
Arrival’s growth has taken the British automotive industry by surprise, at a time when investment in the UK sector has stalled in the face of Brexit uncertainty. At the same time, traditional carmakers have been hit by the decline of diesel and the steep costs of investing in electric vehicles with zero carbon dioxide exhaust emissions.
However, Arrival, which was founded by Russian entrepreneur Denis Sverdlov in 2015, says that it can develop its electric vehicle platform for £100m, a fraction of the cost of incumbents. Arrival also rejects the standard production line in favour of using robots to make its van on a single spot, and uses a modular design which it says allows for easy customisation of vehicles. It is focused on urban delivery, with lower range requirements.
The first vans have been built at the company’s first “microfactory” in Banbury, Oxfordshire, but others will be made close to their end markets, likely near major markets such as New York and Los Angeles.
The UPS deal implies that the base price of an Arrival van will be about £34,000, compared to a £27,900 sticker price for a new Ford Transit with an internal combustion engine – although with lower maintenance and fuel costs the total cost of ownership for electric vans could be lower. That price would also put it in line with or below the expected cost of a Mercedes eSprinter or Volkswagen’s e-Crafter electric vans, both of which are due this year.
The order represents a significant expansion of UPS’s electric capabilities, as the threat of internal combustion engine limits from cities such as Bristol puts the focus on zero-emission vehicles for “last mile” deliveries.
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UPS wants to help solve the “chicken and egg” problem of a meagre supply of electric vans on the market, according to Luke Wake, UPS’s international director of automotive engineering.
“There is demand there,” said Wake. “We want a supply that can help fulfil that. Our goal is to use electric vehicles in a way that can be scaled.”
Wake highlighted the Arrival vans’ driver assistance capabilities, as well as features like automatic door opening for drivers carrying large packages and cameras replacing wing mirrors to eliminate blind spots.

 

[larrylamb]

Cann we get back to the original topic perhaps? I'm sure there is an electric Cali thread elsewhere that would benefit.

 

[Lightning]

Cann we get back to the original topic perhaps? I'm sure there is an electric Cali thread elsewhere that would benefit.

The original topic relates to depreciation which is affected by how fast the electric technology is being introduced.

Do you have anything to add to this topic perhaps?

 

[larrylamb]

The original topic relates to depreciation which is affected by how fast the electric technology is being introduced.

Do you have anything to add to this topic perhaps?

Disagree, The original question/thread has zilch to do with an electric cali as there is no electric cali. Its a cali vs conversion depreciation question not a petrol vs diesel vs electric question.

 

[larrylamb]

Electric & self driving cars vs Cali

If you believe the hype it will be a mere few years before electric cars & (allegedly) self driving vehicles become mainstream. Given that a California is a fairly huge outlay of cash, are any owners or prospective owners concerned that it may become an obsolete purchase in the near future...

vwcaliforniaclub.com

 

[Lightning]

Disagree, The original question/thread has zilch to do with an electric cali as there is no electric cali. Its a cali vs conversion depreciation question not a petrol vs diesel vs electric question.

Well the original poster wrote the following this thread.
‘Thanks 2into1, that's good background, but also slightly makes me think my fears are right. Perhaps the reason for the good historic depreciation has been the increase in prices for new ones. In another couple of years, VW will probably have the ID Buzz out, at which point there will be another VW camper (that looks more like the classic one!) competing with the California. Electric vehicles have a lot of potential for use as camper vans as well because they are essentially giant leisure batteries on wheels. Imagine being able to run the A/C all night long from the battery in hot weather like you run the diesel heater in cold weather now.’
So, it doesn’t really matter if you disagree or not...