Saving for a few years, hoping to buy over the winter.

[PhillipGlas]

I have been saving for a camper for a few years. If I remember correctly (not always a given....), when I last looked at Cali prices approx 4 or 5 years ago, they seemed to start at around 25k, a 5 year old beach could be had for less than 30k and a similar age California for a little more.
Now, having got around that saved (thank you redundancy!), I was a bit deflated when I went to see what I could get for 30 to 35k! A few years ago £35k would have got a decent 5 year old Ocean, now they seem to be around £45-50k.

So, if you didn't have a camper, had £35k to spend and in no rush to get one, what would you do? Opinions on if / when the prices will drop? Get a beach?

Given it has taken me this long to save and im not 'flush', id be really annoyed if I bought before the prices drop significantly (if they do).

 

[Elmo3]

Bide your time. Once planes start flying, people will be off to sunnier climes rather than wet fields in the UK. There are some pretty uncertain headwinds to be navigated in the economy. The supply issue will sort itself out, by which time demand could have dropped significantly. You know what happens to prices then.

 

[Ozzy Pete]

To tell the truth nobody has a clue to what will happen. You can guess all you like then still get it wrong. Will inflation go through the roof? Will wages soar? Will prices drop? Well no not if VW keeps increasing prices twice a year. You may be lucky but that’s not actual owners want to hear, they want them to continue rising. You are coming into the market at a very bad time. The best time to buy a used camper is in the Winter if it’s left till spring then it’s normally too late ... Good luck in whatever you decide.

 

[PhillipGlas]

Is the current premium on 5 to 6 year old California's approx nearly 10k?

 

[Ozzy Pete]

Is the current premium on 5 to 6 year old California's approx nearly 10k?

When my 2015 California was 2 years old I thought about changing it for the T6. I contacted Sinclairs in Cardiff and asked what they would give as a trade in on my 10,000 mile van. The answer £28,000.. Needless to say I told him to get stuffed. Today and 4 years later the van is valued at WBAC at £40,000 plus and I’ve seen them for sale at almost £50,000. That’s £6,000 more than when new.
I know the prices are ridiculous but no different to a One bedroom apartment in some parts of London for Half a million quid.
Where demand outstrips supply then prices are ridiculous on property or vehicles or anything else...

 

[andyinluton]

Is the current premium on 5 to 6 year old California's approx nearly 10k?

Possibly, but no-one can tell if thats a permanent price adjustment or not.

With new Oceans probably unavailable for next summer unless you've already ordered, nearly new prices should hold up for year or two.

There are 119 Calis for sale on auto trader at the moment thats one for every 546,000 people in the country so hardly flooding the market.

Current new prices keep on rising & every sign is that they will continue to do so substantially, that always drags up the secondhand prices on vehicles that are perceived as lightly used & don't fall apart with rust.
The camping experience in a 10 year old cali is not vastly different to that in a new van so the older vans are always going to be attractive.

 

[OGII]

Get a beach?

Buy a Beach if it suits your needs, not your wallet. As you will find from many a thread here they are different vehicles that suit some people's needs better than an Ocean. They aren't always a cheaper way to ownership.

 

[66tim99]

I have been saving for a camper for a few years. If I remember correctly (not always a given....), when I last looked at Cali prices approx 4 or 5 years ago, they seemed to start at around 25k, a 5 year old beach could be had for less than 30k and a similar age California for a little more.
Now, having got around that saved (thank you redundancy!), I was a bit deflated when I went to see what I could get for 30 to 35k! A few years ago £35k would have got a decent 5 year old Ocean, now they seem to be around £45-50k.

So, if you didn't have a camper, had £35k to spend and in no rush to get one, what would you do? Opinions on if / when the prices will drop? Get a beach?

Given it has taken me this long to save and im not 'flush', id be really annoyed if I bought before the prices drop significantly (if they do).

I'd list all the options that are 'must have's' and then bide my time. I wouldn't see a Beach as the answer, just because its cheaper - do you need the bigger bed? Do you want to pull up on a wet night and cook indoors without faff? I'd look for an SE if you wanted an Ocean.
I see the numbers for sale rising, and now the season is closing and the borders are opening I suspect there will be more, with slightly less demand over the winter.
Have a chat with your local dealer and ask them to call you if they get offered anything similar to your perfect spec.
As you're in no rush I doubt these extortionate asking prices will be met November-February...

 

[Elmo3]

Is the current premium on 5 to 6 year old California's approx nearly 10k?

If someone is willing to pay it, that’s the market price rather than a premium. The question is, will people be willing / able to pay it next year? Same with houses, classic cars, anything really. I do think everything is in a false market, the unwinding of which could be very painful, particularly for those highly leveraged, who‘ve helped push up asset values in the first place!

 

[Lambeth Cali]

One thing that hit me when we were forcibly staycationing this summer was how many Transporter conversations there were everywhere. We stayed in sites where there were 10 or more. We walked along Dorset coastal paths where there seemed to be hundreds in total.

There is a phenomenon, common also with Calis, where people buy and then sell 1 or 2 years later as they decide van life isn’t really for them. Whilst new Calis may have been dripping into the UK, converters must have been churning out hundreds of vans. If a chunk of all these vans drop on the market in 2022, then even Calis must surely fall in value.

Camping does not suit everyone. I’ve owned our van for 13 years but if I have to camp in windy, rainy Dorset again next year, then I’ll be asking some serious questions about our continued ownership.