Change of plan - Germany/Italy instead of France?

[HowieDog]

Our plans to Isle de Re and Arcachon now need to change.

With Eurotunnel already booked thinking of heading to Germany and perhaps over to Austria/Italian lakes. Our return crossing is 5 September and the regulations are changing quite quickly. At the moment we would be fine driving back from Germany to Eurotunnel in line with private vehicle guidance on the FCO site and therefore not needing to quarantine.

Germany seems to have a relatively low rate of 14.6/100,000 against UK 18.5/100,000 but this could easily change over next few weeks.

Need to avoid a quarantine situation as school starts on 7 September but also need to check travel/motor insurance when actually driving through France.

Bit of a dilemma...

 

[kave]

If you really must be home at a certain date, stay home. This is now a political drama so it is well beyond science so impossible to think how borders will close in advance.

 

[Jontymo]

Interesting as we have the Chunnel booked for the 4th September for 2 weeks away and will watch what happens over the coming weeks, please keep us updated on what you do.

 

[Matty]

If you need to avoid quarantine then stay at home, simple.

 

[kp64zl]

Our plans to Isle de Re and Arcachon now need to change.

With Eurotunnel already booked thinking of heading to Germany and perhaps over to Austria/Italian lakes. Our return crossing is 5 September and the regulations are changing quite quickly. At the moment we would be fine driving back from Germany to Eurotunnel in line with private vehicle guidance on the FCO site and therefore not needing to quarantine.

Germany seems to have a relatively low rate of 14.6/100,000 against UK 18.5/100,000 but this could easily change over next few weeks.

Need to avoid a quarantine situation as school starts on 7 September but also need to check travel/motor insurance when actually driving through France.

Bit of a dilemma...

We are in similar situation -- thinking of Germany +/- Denmark and maybe even Poland, for 2 weeks from 21st. So I'm following this thread with interest.

 

[VWCoastbusters]

My brother lives in Germany. They're expecting cases to increase. I'd probably not go if you need to be back. I expect they will be added to the list soon.

 

[gatvol]

Surely this is the year to simply stay in the UK. Abroad will still be there next year

 

[B J G]

Logical advise now is to,

if employed, check with your employer what is possible if 14 day quarantine on return - work from home - take more annual leave - take unpaid leave. No statutory sick pay entitlement applies.

if self employed you would have to just do normal consideration of any inability to work.

family members also come into the whole issue.

It is emphasised that due to the possibility of any foreign holiday destination suddenly being put on the quarantine list the above needs to be factored in if leaving UK shores regardless of destination current Covid-19 status.

 

[kp64zl]

Article in today's Telegraph suggests that Germany and Italy might be safe from imminent quarantine requirements

(notwithstanding all the sensible comments above which I completely agree with from a logical point of view)

Holiday quarantine: Which country will be removed from the 'green list' next?

Greece and the Canaries are out, but Barbados and the Maldives are still in

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Aubisque]

You can track daily trajectories here https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Spain was on a massive ramp-up on infections ( 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100 000 doubling every day for a bit) but France has been on a much slower one, justifying a less risky trip in the last few weeks, but not now.
No-one has said it out loud as far as I am aware, but >30 seems to be the threshhold to track trajectory to and then expect a quarantine decision if exceeded. And relies on UK's figure also not going up also. UK has for ages had a relatively high death rate.

France took over two weeks to go from 17 to 34. Luxembourg has lots of movement across it’s borders, but I think they have tested pretty much the whole population explaining that high number. More tests = more positives, so who knows what the actual situation is in many countries.

edited to add : “The countries were targeted for quarantine restrictions because their infections rates exceeded 20 per cases 100,000 people over seven days, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said.”
Though think that was decided retrospectively.

 

[Swiss Cheese]

If you really must be home at a certain date, stay home. This is now a political drama so it is well beyond science so impossible to think how borders will close in advance.

This ^^^
Things can get ugly again quite fast. Reciprocal agreements cancelled, etc.
Being stressed about travelling back from a holiday, while on holiday, is not really a holiday is it?

 

[Amarillo]

We are in similar situation -- thinking of Germany +/- Denmark and maybe even Poland, for 2 weeks from 21st. So I'm following this thread with interest.

If you want to go to southern Poland, I can highly recommend this site.

Rodzinny kemping nad małym jeziorem

Przestronny, wiejski kemping z wyjątkowymi widokami. Pokoje gościnne, domki do wynajęcia. W pobliżu wiele atrakcji turystycznych. Blisko gór.

www.campingforteca.pl

Based around an old gravel quarry, now used as a swimming lake, the site is run by a Dutch man and his Polish wife. Very relaxed atmosphere, basic but perfectly adequate facilities, lovely on site restaurant with small menu but reasonable prices. The local town with the unpronounceable name, Dzierżoniów, is within cycling distance.

If passing through Świdnica, BEWARE of white van man deliberately reversing into you then insisting on a cash payment for damage to their already bashed up van. If this does happen try to make sure it is outside a nursery where the helpful local police can find CCTV evidence to refute WVM’s claims that you bashed him after he stopped at red lights! (The hapless wannabe con artist who did this to me was convicted of dangerous driving! I still have a front registration plate holder advertising a Świdnica VW garage).

 

[kp64zl]

If you want to go to southern Poland, I can highly recommend this site.

Rodzinny kemping nad małym jeziorem

Przestronny, wiejski kemping z wyjątkowymi widokami. Pokoje gościnne, domki do wynajęcia. W pobliżu wiele atrakcji turystycznych. Blisko gór.

www.campingforteca.pl

Based around an old gravel quarry, now used as a swimming lake, the site is run by a Dutch man and his Polish wife. Very relaxed atmosphere, basic but perfectly adequate facilities, lovely on site restaurant with small menu but reasonable prices. The local town with the unpronounceable name, Dzierżoniów, is within cycling distance.

If passing through Świdnica, BEWARE of white van man deliberately reversing into you then insisting on a cash payment for damage to their already bashed up van. If this does happen try to make sure it is outside a nursery where the helpful local police can find CCTV evidence to refute WVM’s claims that you bashed him after he stopped at red lights! (The hapless wannabe con artist who did this to me was convicted of dangerous driving! I still have a front registration plate holder advertising a Świdnica VW garage).

Hi @Amarillo -- do you have any recommendations for North East Poland by any chance? e.g between Białystok and Gdansk?

 

[Amarillo]

Hi @Amarillo -- do you have any recommendations for North East Poland by any chance? e.g between Białystok and Gdansk?

Sorry - no.

 

[SusiBus]

In the last 100 or so years their has only been two other occasions that so many people have lost their lives. WW l and WW ll. You didn't go on holiday to mainland Europe then.

Why do people feel so compelled but they must have have the annual break in Europe this year is beyond me. Why don't people stay at home, get the sewing machine out, make face coverings, or dig up the front lawn and grow a few vegetables instead.

Seriously though, why not enjoy your California while exploring the UK, and help kick start our own economy? Even if it means only having days out.

I'm sure if you knew anyone that had serious consequences of having covid-19 you would be only too grateful to put up with a few restrictions on your lifestyle.

 

[Aubisque]

In the last 100 or so years their has only been two other occasions that so many people have lost their lives. WW l and WW ll. You didn't go on holiday to mainland Europe then.

Why do people feel so compelled but they must have have the annual break in Europe this year is beyond me. Why don't people stay at home, get the sewing machine out, make face coverings, or dig up the front lawn and grow a few vegetables instead.

Seriously though, why not enjoy your California while exploring the UK, and help kick start our own economy? Even if it means only having days out.

I'm sure if you knew anyone that had serious consequences of having covid-19 you would be only too grateful to put up with a few restrictions on your lifestyle.

Because it’s a constant balance of opening up economies (not just UK)/return to normal life and reducing infections. Hence more restrictions being lifted at exactly the same time as more restrictions being added.
Depending on where you are and what you plan on doing has very specific risks/consequences. But no-one is advocating an indefinite hermit strategy. A deserted beach in Brittany is probably safer than Leicester for example. Plus orgs like ferry companies are at risk of going under if there are no passengers and we all don’t want that to happen.

Also, there have been more examples of events causing more deaths in last 100 years, here’s a fairly significant one : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu?wprov=sfti1

 

[Velma's Dad]

The UK quarantine measures are based on metrics of infection risk that are generalised to levels of whole countries. That's fine, they have to base it on something and I'm not arguing anyone should break public health laws once they're in place.

But, as with almost all travel risks, the actual hazard profiles for covid are hugely granular, localised and behaviour-contingent.

How you respond to all that depends on your personal risk appetite, and your self-perceived ability to assess risk and to then make intelligent and informed choices about specifically where you visit and how you behave where you are there (eg do you go shopping, out to restaurants etc).

The beauty of a campervan is that you can pick and choose the regions you visit, even changing direction day by day. And, if you want, you can pretty much completely socially isolate from the time you get on the Channel Tunnel to when you come back.

Or, if you want, you can stay in the UK and make pretty similar choices here. Or not - judging from some of the pictures from UK holiday destinations.

 

[Wongo]

As is now seemingly routine and are treated lke idiots and not supplied the data:
How many people per day are treated?
not nonsense about capacity and tests carried out
What % are positive?
What % of the population us it?
Where are the increased numbers?
Whats the rate of hospital admissions?
What is the fatality rate?
What are the thresholds for instigating and lifting restrictions?

The WHO/EU/EFTA etc needs to bang heads together and agree protocols. It must be safer to travel through remote rural SW France than through Greater Manchester?

 

[WelshGas]

As is now seemingly routine and are treated lke idiots and not supplied the data:
How many people per day are treated?
not nonsense about capacity and tests carried out
What % are positive?
What % of the population us it?
Where are the increased numbers?
Whats the rate of hospital admissions?
What is the fatality rate?
What are the thresholds for instigating and lifting restrictions?

The WHO/EU/EFTA etc needs to bang heads together and agree protocols. It must be safer to travel through remote rural SW France than through Greater Manchester?

Safer for Whom?
You or the local population?
Most of the information You want is there if you can be bothered to look for it. It’s not all about the risk to yourself, that’s your decision, but what about the risk to others that you pose if you are an asymptomatic spreader?

 

[Amarillo]

As is now seemingly routine and are treated lke idiots and not supplied the data:
How many people per day are treated?
not nonsense about capacity and tests carried out
What % are positive?
What % of the population us it?
Where are the increased numbers?
Whats the rate of hospital admissions?
What is the fatality rate?
What are the thresholds for instigating and lifting restrictions?

The WHO/EU/EFTA etc needs to bang heads together and agree protocols. It must be safer to travel through remote rural SW France than through Greater Manchester?

Lots of data here:

Coronavirus Update (Live): 135,943,021 Cases and 2,938,561 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

14m tests in the UK, equivalent to 1:5 of the population, but many people have been tested multiple times, and some tests will be antibody tests.

You are right that counting is inconsistent even among European countries, including the counting of deaths, so direct comparison is difficult, and infection rates will be influenced by testing rates. However, upward or downward trends in infections should be possible even with inconsistent data.