Cornwall here we come

[Victor]

.

 

[WelshGas]

Covid: Essex couple delivering presents to Cardiff fined

A group travelling in convoy to visit friends at university were also stopped by police.

www.bbc.co.uk

It's not the science that is wrong or the restrictions it's the "Dickheads" that think they don't apply to them or that they are somehow immune to catching it, spreading it or infecting others.

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Covid: Essex couple delivering presents to Cardiff fined

A group travelling in convoy to visit friends at university were also stopped by police.

www.bbc.co.uk

It's not the science that is wrong or the restrictions it's the "Dickheads" that think they don't apply to them or that they are somehow immune to catching it, spreading it or infecting others.

Exactly, and if people continue to disregard the rules, we’ll end up with serial lockdowns throughout 2021 and beyond (and very low mileage California’s).
There’s no long term gain without some short term pain.

 

[Velma's Dad]

I was thinking about this as Cornwall is Tier 1 right? So I came to my own very unscientific conclusion that tourism, going to restaurants and pubs isn't the main cause of the virus to spread...

Have to consider two very different scenarios:

1. Going to a pub or restaurant as a couple or as a family, sitting together as a table. Only a moderate risk of either contracting the virus from others in the pub, or of passing it on to others in the pub if one or more or you has it.

2. Going to the pub for a night out with friends from a different household and then sitting with them for an hour or more at the same table. Probably highly likely to result in cross-household transmission if one side or other already has it.

Presumably, going to a Cornish hostelry while on hols there is more likely to involve scenario 1 than 2.

Established facts appears to be that highest likelihood of transmission is within a home setting. But there also has to be a way for virus to move between households and 'scenario 2' pub settings are understood to be one of the biggest causes of that. Hence that in 'new' Tier 2 (ie most of the country*) you can still go to the pub for a meal with your own household members, but not meet friends for a get-together there.

* By 'the country' I should of course have said England there. Different rules in the 'DAs'.

 

[pjm-84]

Social distancing...... Here is a great example.

A woman still sees her daugther on a regular daily basis even during lockdown 1. Her daughter has 4 grown children. Some work in the local lo cost "food" store. They see their mates and girlfriends on a regular basis, go to the pub and basically sit and drive around in crap cars (you know the sort of behaviour). Then a widower sees the original woman, even during lockdown, as the daughter is close to woman he also sees the daughter, her husband and the kids. The daughter works in a charity shop. So he run errands. Picking up clothes bags or delivering bulky furniture to people for fuel costs.

Now the widower also sees his friends, tell a tale, critises businesses, the governement and everyone and anyone "above him". He'll chastise all the youngs ones for not following the guidance. An Alf Garnet / Victor Meldrew character, negative on life. As well as always being right, he also like to keep busy, typically by always being right and telling people so. He will drive miles to find a £5 part, even during lockdown and then moan if the place is closed. Maybe look at the brakes on a neighbour's vehicle, working on his mate's cars and chewing the fat in the garage over a cup of tea. A 30min job ends up taking 3hrs

This is my Father in Wales.....his response is "well what else am I suppose to do". On Thursday he then added " well look at what happened to Maradonna" to that sentence

 

[GrannyJen]

Have to consider two very different scenarios:

1. Going to a pub or restaurant as a couple or as a family, sitting together as a table. Only a moderate risk of either contracting the virus from others in the pub, or of passing it on to others in the pub if one or more or you has it.

2. Going to the pub for a night out with friends from a different household and then sitting with them for an hour or more at the same table. Probably highly likely to result in cross-household transmission if one side or other already has it.

Presumably, going to a Cornish hostelry while on hols there is more likely to involve scenario 1 than 2.

Established facts appears to be that highest likelihood of transmission is within a home setting. But there also has to be a way for virus to move between households and 'scenario 2' pub settings are understood to be one of the biggest causes of that. Hence that in 'new' Tier 2 (ie most of the country*) you can still go to the pub for a meal with your own household members, but not meet friends for a get-together there.

* By 'the country' I should of course have said England there. Different rules in the 'DAs'.

Plus during most of the Summer the R was below 1 plus also most activity was taking place outdoors.

 

[Perfectos]

Social distancing...... Here is a great example.

A woman still sees her daugther on a regular daily basis even during lockdown 1. Her daughter has 4 grown children. Some work in the local lo cost "food" store. They see their mates and girlfriends on a regular basis, go to the pub and basically sit and drive around in crap cars (you know the sort of behaviour). Then a widower sees the original woman, even during lockdown, as the daughter is close to woman he also sees the daughter, her husband and the kids. The daughter works in a charity shop. So he run errands. Picking up clothes bags or delivering bulky furniture to people for fuel costs.

Now the widower also sees his friends, tell a tale, critises businesses, the governement and everyone and anyone "above him". He'll chastise all the youngs ones for not following the guidance. An Alf Garnet / Victor Meldrew character, negative on life. As well as always being right, he also like to keep busy, typically by always being right and telling people so. He will drive miles to find a £5 part, even during lockdown and then moan if the place is closed. Maybe look at the brakes on a neighbour's vehicle, working on his mate's cars and chewing the fat in the garage over a cup of tea. A 30min job ends up taking 3hrs

This is my Father in Wales.....his response is "well what else am I suppose to do". On Thursday he then added " well look at what happened to Maradonna" to that sentence

Maradonna, that was the hand of god !

 

[Velma's Dad]

The latest REACT-1 swab survey results came out today, showing in aggregate that slightly under 1% of the population tested positive in second half of Nov. But for me it's the breakdown tables that are most interesting. I was struck by the high prevalence in:

- Teenage school children 13-17 (twice as likely as average to be positive)
- Young adults 18-24 (1.7 times)
- BAME generally higher, but especially Asian (2.2 times )
- Strong correlation with household size above 4 people (rising to 3.4 times the average in HHs of 7+)
- In top quintile of deprived areas (1.5 times)

There's only small correlation with employment types, except that healthcare and care home workers are higher prevalence (1.5 times).

Make of all that what you will, but from my statistical armchair it underlines that household transmission is what's continuing to drive this thing, and very much more in the larger multi-gen family households, which are of course most common in deprived areas (which also happen to be Asian families in many cases).

Even a small amount of cross-household transmission is pretty much inevitable once the virus is widespread in an area, and don't forget that during LD2 schools have been kept open. And that then fuels the within-household transmission especially in the larger households.

But it's probably not, to any really meaningful level, about whether a couple goes to Cornwall on holiday, or whether they drop Xmas presents off with their uncle and auntie in Cardiff.

 

[soulstyledevon]

What Lockdown are we in exactly...?
I can’t fathom if it’s still 2 or have we moved into Lockdown 3...?

What obvious to most now. Is regional half ar5ed Lockdowns don’t work.
It’s sends out mixed messages, division and confusion across the board.

We should just lockdown nationally or not at all.

Lockdown should also close 99% of businesses too. Instead the majority of business owners look for a work around the rules. Hotel Chocolate opening because it sells take-away hot chocolate is one example.

Our current system isn’t working and we will find ourselves bouncing in and out for the next few years if we don’t change what we do.
It’s time for the vulnerable and old to shield and the rest of us to get back to business...

 

[Velma's Dad]

What obvious to most now. Is regional half ar5ed Lockdowns don’t work.
It’s sends out mixed messages, division and confusion across the board.

We should just lockdown nationally or not at all.

Not sure I'd drop the regional approach but yes it certainly has been shown that modest restrictions don't work. In the autumn the Tier 1 restrictions didn't stop infection growth, Tier 2 had some effect but only Tier 3 created real downward pressure. Even then, according to SAGE the national 'circuit breaker' in Wales wasn't hugely effective, for reasons that aren't quite clear.

I suspect there may well have to be another national lockdown in England in Jan or Feb although they may not call it that, maybe it will just be a 'National Tier 3 Virus Firebreak' or some other politically palatable weasel term (and yes it will be a mixed message and so less effective).

But by Easter the vaccine cavalry will have arrived (those people saying there'll never be a vaccine seem to have gone quiet... whatever happened to docbob1?)

 

[GrannyJen]

I have ceased to be concerned about lockdowns, tiers, invaders to my low-CV world spreading virus all over the place ...

What I am concerned about is that I don't get it.

It can be harmless, it can be lethal, there is a strong body of evidence that suggests for many it is a long term debilitating condition, I just can't afford to take the risk. I have two major projects planned for 2021, an even bigger one for 2022 that is going to take all my strength and stamina, I don' want the damned thing and it seems that the best way to avoid it is to actually "follow the science" to quote Boris, take all the recommended precautionary measures and by protecting myself I actually end up protecting others that I come into contact with.

The idea that having come so far with lockdowns and tiers, with a vaccine in sight, I now pop my head higher over the wall than necessary and catch the virus, to me it's just plain daft.

 

[Kernowboy]

What Lockdown are we in exactly...?
I can’t fathom if it’s still 2 or have we moved into Lockdown 3...?

What obvious to most now. Is regional half ar5ed Lockdowns don’t work.
It’s sends out mixed messages, division and confusion across the board.

We should just lockdown nationally or not at all.

Lockdown should also close 99% of businesses too. Instead the majority of business owners look for a work around the rules. Hotel Chocolate opening because it sells take-away hot chocolate is one example.

Our current system isn’t working and we will find ourselves bouncing in and out for the next few years if we don’t change what we do.
It’s time for the vulnerable and old to shield and the rest of us to get back to business...

Agree with this; to call what is going on at the moment a ‘lockdown’ is a joke.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Agree with this; to call what is going on at the moment a ‘lockdown’ is a joke.

To be fair, that's what the media has chosen to call it. The government calls it 'National Restrictions'.

 

[soulstyledevon]

@GrannyJen
Follow the science...???

Tier 3, gyms open to everyone.
Restaurants closed.

I think the Science is inaccurate.

 

[WelshGas]

@GrannyJen
Follow the science...???

Tier 3, gyms open to everyone.
Restaurants closed.

I think the Science is inaccurate.

No - it's the type of people that visit those two types of businesses and the fact that Gym visits tend to be Solo unlike Restaurant/Pub visits.

 

[Kernowboy]

To be fair, that's what the media has chosen to call it. The government calls it 'National Restrictions'.

That would at least seem a better descriptor.

 

[soulstyledevon]

No - it's the type of people that visit those two types of businesses and the fact that Gym visits tend to be Solo unlike Restaurant/Pub visits.

Sorry disagree.
My local gym pushes the club ethos. With a push for families training together and the usual country club amenities, cafe and restaurant and spa etc etc

 

[GrannyJen]

@GrannyJen
Follow the science...???

Tier 3, gyms open to everyone.
Restaurants closed.

I think the Science is inaccurate.

I'm not so sure that's the science. I think it's more the politics. The science to me is keep a safe distance from others, try and meet in the open as much as possible, keep as many strangers out of my house as possible, wash my hands or sanitise them every time I touch a common surface, drink only decent wine and avoid going stir crazy by thinking of nice projects to do with my Cali.

 

[GrannyJen]

Sorry disagree.
My local gym pushes the club ethos. With a push for families training together and the usual country club amenities, cafe and restaurant and spa etc etc

My local gym thankfully is totally different. Over 18, classes via zoom, machines taken out to allow extra distance and screens between machines.

 

[soulstyledevon]

I'm not so sure that's the science. I think it's more the politics. The science to me is keep a safe distance from others, try and meet in the open as much as possible, keep as many strangers out of my house as possible, wash my hands or sanitise them every time I touch a common surface, drink only decent wine and avoid going stir crazy by thinking of nice projects to do with my Cali.

Sounds sensible.
Now imagine if we kept the vulnerable and elderly (retired 65)+ shielded whilst the young and able start an economic rebuild whilst we wait for the vaccine.
We might finally see progress...

 

[GrannyJen]

Sounds sensible.
Now imagine if we kept the vulnerable and elderly (retired 65)+ shielded whilst the young and able start an economic rebuild whilst we wait for the vaccine.
We might finally see progress...

Assuming that sector does not get sick. Of all the people I know who have caught Covid all but one was under 65, the over 65 was ill for a couple of weeks but recovered completely. Of the others One died aged 49, one, a 38 y/old personal trainer still cannot work fully after 5 months, one recovered completely after three weeks and one had no sense of smell or taste after a couple of months. Certainly in April my local hospital trust, running two major hospitals, had Covid-segregated ICU's jam-packed full and only one third were the so-called vulnerable.

Being quite callous, one of the reasons for that was that the vulnerable tended to pop off quickly whilst the "young and Healthy" occupied an ICU bed for weeks. It might be the vulnerable who are contributing most to the death list but listen to any ICU consultant and they will tell you that it is not just that sector lying sedated with a machine doing their breathing for them.

I would think epidemiologists also have two other spectres haunting them. The 1918/1919 flu epidemic, where a second wave mutated to something far more deadly and largely left the old alone, wreaking havoc particularly in the 20's to 40's and physically fit, and the Asian and HK epidemics of late 50;s and 1968. In the 1919 example if you left this virus to run like wildfire through the young and able then it's possible that any mutation would likely affect that group the most.

As for the two recent epidemics,I remember the first in particular. Yes it was lethal, not helped by the great smog of 1958, but even worse was the debilitating effects on the young and working. I never went to school, not because of lockdown, because there were no teachers, they were all off sick. My most vivid memory though is of my Dad, in an era when sick pay was rudimentary and job protection almost non-existent, sat in his chair inconsolably crying. Three weeks to Christmas and laid off because of the epidemic: Employment closed because too many were all sick at once. For my Dad that meant no presents for his kids, barely enough money to even feed his family and an agony from December through to February wondering daily if he would even have a job.

There simply is no guarantee that allowing the R to increase to 2, 3, 4 or whatever would not have catastrophic effect far greater than the current "planned" response.


It's not all about the old and vulnerable. They might die, but whilst the younger generations may not die they may get sick enough to totally disrupt the economy. Therefore one of the aims behind the epidemic preparedness plan this country chose to follow, and I dare say every other industrialised one, was for Government to control lockdown and not let the virus do it.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Yet out of all the sub 60s I know, who have contracted Covid. Only two have had severe reactions to the disease.
One, my 38 year old cousin. However, he is fairly over weight and doesn’t look after himself like he should.
The other I concede, 44 has been awful. Off work for 3 months and still off work. Very fit and healthy guy. However the vast majority have had nothing worse than a mild cold.

We have the stats in place for the current pandemic. There’s a clear correlation between general health, age and mortality rates.

I am more worried about the economic fallout which we are beginning to see and the long term devastation this will cause.
It maybe easier to accept a lockdown if you’re fortunate enough to collect furlough or a boomers pension.
P.S No offence intended to those that do, but it will seem easier depending on which camp you find yourself in...

 

[GrannyJen]

Yet out of all the sub 60s I know, who have contracted Covid. Only two have had severe reactions to the disease.
One, my 38 year old cousin. However, he is fairly over weight and doesn’t look after himself like he should.
The other I concede, 44 has been awful. Off work for 3 months and still off work. Very fit and healthy guy. However the vast majority have had nothing worse than a mild cold.

We have the stats in place for the current pandemic. There’s a clear correlation between general health, age and mortality rates.

I am more worried about the economic fallout which we are beginning to see and the long term devastation this will cause.
It maybe easier to accept a lockdown if you’re fortunate enough to collect furlough or a boomers pension.
P.S No offence intended to those that do, but it will seem easier depending on which camp you find yourself in...

Well, here we go again. These wonderful generalisations of "boomers" and "millennial", as if you can group and typecast 20% of the human race together simply because of the year that they were born in

Really, I expected better than that

Said by a boomer who has seen 30% of her income disappear in the last 6 months

 

[WelshGas]

Sounds sensible.
Now imagine if we kept the vulnerable and elderly (retired 65)+ shielded whilst the young and able start an economic rebuild whilst we wait for the vaccine.
We might finally see progress...

Even better, the younger use a few neurones and think of others not just themselves. If EVERYONE practised Social Distancing and hand washing and minimising contact outside their household we would be in a far better place.

Coronavirus: Party students may be 'fast-tracked' to exclusion

The warning comes after police broke up a 200-strong gathering at a hall of residence.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Vagophile]

While I agree with @soulstyledevon (#45), I also agree with @WelshGas (#49).
It is incumbent on everyone to take the actions decided by government to prevent the spread of the virus and I think that the younger among us feel less vulnerable and more entitled.
We may not personally agree with it, but we are facing a National crisis and everyone should do their best to prevent the spread of the virus.