Depreciation

[Barry Chuckle]

What about this:

Highlights

www.knaus.com

Thanks, I have seen these pop up on Autotrader, but aren't they over 3.5t so requiring a C1 license?

 

[Corradobrit]

I've read the Cali is the 2nd least depreciating vehicle in the UK. The stats seem to support that message.

 

[Julesverne2000]

I can see how, in the short term, values could be under pressure. When looking at a fairly new van, the current list price is irrelevant, because a decent discount on a factory order is possible, you get 5 year warranty and servicing but most importantly, 5 years 0% finance on 50% of the balance.

Even if you have the cash, you can earn circa 5% risk free on your £35K or so. Work out the present value of that over a 5 year term, it’s thousands of pounds of essentially further discount. Your 6 month old 80K list price van is suddenly worth circa 65K new, so needs to be less than that to sell used.

Largely agree with this. With this in mind, the time to sell a fairly new (2023) van would be a few months after the order books have closed, or in 2025, and the t6.1 becomes more scarce. And ideally once the bellows have been replaced with something effective.

 

[Ch1pbutty]

Thanks, I have seen these pop up on Autotrader, but aren't they over 3.5t so requiring a C1 license?

They are 3.5t

 

[Barry Chuckle]

They are 3.5t

Many thanks they look really nice, and seem really well priced.

Can't get my head around why Hymer Grand Canyons are so expensive, I know they're based on the Sprinter, but surely that's not more desirable than the Crafter/Man Chassis?

 

[Jimmylondon07]

Done lots of research Barry, even hired a GC for a couple of days back in October and we had a lovely time in it. Very easy to find it after a day at the beach as you’ll see in the pic

I may swap at some point but I really want to give the Ocean a run in its natural environment (spring/summer) and see how we get on with it. They’ll be refreshing the Crafter this year which will resolve some
issues I had with the GC (not least the awful handbrake) so that’s an option for later in the year, and so too is a caravan which would allow us to maintain all the flexibility of an Ocean with more comfort and convenience on longer trips and colder weather.

I had some pretty dark days through bellowsgate where I just wanted the van gone but I think it’s important not to rush your decision and end up with something else that isn’t right, that you’ll ultimately lose more money on.

Would definitely recommend talking to Breeze about a GC hire, even just to see how you get on with using a bigger van.

 

[Barry Chuckle]

thanks @Jimmylondon07 forgot you were having a torrid time with the bellows saga. I may well look at borrowing one as despite my prejudices 'you can't knock em until you've tired em'

I was chatting to the Westfalia dealer earlier this week and they told me that Westfalia don't expect the new Crafter to be ready (or at least ready for conversion) until the end of 2025 so have already allocated the current shape crafters until the end of 2025. Not sure if that means anything for the GC but perhaps don't expect anything completely new until 2026

 

[Jimmylondon07]

thanks @Jimmylondon07 forgot you were having a torrid time with the bellows saga. I may well look at borrowing one as despite my prejudices 'you can't knock em until you've tired em'

I was chatting to the Westfalia dealer earlier this week and they told me that Westfalia don't expect the new Crafter to be ready (or at least ready for conversion) until the end of 2025 so have already allocated the current shape crafters until the end of 2025. Not sure if that means anything for the GC but perhaps don't expect anything completely new until 2026

Yep and not finished yet unfortunately mate, going in for another replacement bellows on the 12th of March.

Good info regarding the Crafter facelift, it’s still pretty vague on when that will start making it through to the GC. At this stage I think I’d be happy to wait for it but obviously the deals won’t be anywhere near as good as they are now.

 

[Barry Chuckle]

Yep and not finished yet unfortunately mate, going in for another replacement bellows on the 12th of March.

Good info regarding the Crafter facelift, it’s still pretty vague on when that will start making it through to the GC. At this stage I think I’d be happy to wait for it but obviously the deals won’t be anywhere near as good as they are now.

Hope you finally get there and the bellows will be your last!

If the demand for Campers continues to cool, who's to say you won't get a better deal further down the line.....

 

[Elmo3]

Largely agree with this. With this in mind, the time to sell a fairly new (2023) van would be a few months after the order books have closed, or in 2025, and the t6.1 becomes more scarce. And ideally once the bellows have been replaced with something effective.

Also depends how much the new multivan Cali is going to cost. I can see an Ocean equivalent being well into the 80’s.

 

[Kev56]

I'm just happy to wake up in the morning.

 

[Barry Chuckle]

Also depends how much the new multivan Cali is going to cost. I can see an Ocean equivalent being well into the 80’s.

It's also going to depend on how well received the replacement is and it's demand.

Can anyone recall what happened to T5 values when the new T6 was launched?

 

[KAP0902]

Thank you everyone for responding to my question, feel happier now,

 

[Elmo3]

It's also going to depend on how well received the replacement is and it's demand.

Can anyone recall what happened to T5 values when the new T6 was launched?

IIRC, not a lot. We bought our first T6 in 2017, they were a bit more than the T5’s at the time and that just seemed to continue. No drop in values as I recall.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Many thanks they look really nice, and seem really well priced.

Can't get my head around why Hymer Grand Canyons are so expensive, I know they're based on the Sprinter, but surely that's not more desirable than the Crafter/Man Chassis?

Simple.
One van is a Volkswagen and the other carries the Mercedes badge.
After driving both, Crafter was good but the Mercedes just felt a nicer place to be…

GC are lovely, we went for the Free 600S.
I’m not fussed on the shower, but having a separate loo and standing room is an absolute game changer…

2 more months until collection

 

[karliskarelkovs]

A slow afternoon in the office, so I typed in the age, mileage and price for 50 of the California Oceans and SEs on sale in AutoTrader today and ran some very basic stats.

89% of the quoted prices on AutoTrader for California Oceans and SEs are explained by the formula £76,770 less £3,439 per year. That 89% (the R-squared) suggests a strong correlation between age and price. You can see the scatter chart below, assuming I have pasted it correctly.

So for example, the formula suggests that the advertised price for a brand new Ocean is £76,770, and that the average price for a 10 year old SE is £76,770 less £34,390 which is £42,380.

I wouldn't expect someone to pay the asking price on AutoTrader, so actual prices price might be (say) 5% - 15% lower. That doesn't matter too much so long as the negotiated prices are roughly the same percentage of the asking price for all ages and values.

I would expect - if market conditions remain the same - the AutoTrader asking price for a California bought now to drop by around £3.5k, or about 5%, per annum.

New car prices rise each year, so a new California bought 10 years ago would have cost less than £76,700. If new car prices had risen by 5% per annum (not compounded) over that period, then someone buying a Cali 10 years ago might have paid around £42,380 at the time for a new van, and therefore wouldn't have experienced much if any depreciation at all. In fact I found a table in another post (see below) showing OTR prices in 2014 varied from £45k - £52k, so someone buying at list price in 2014 would likely have experienced a very small amount of depreciation - perhaps £500 per year, on average. A shrewd negotiator who looked after their van could easily see no depreciation or even (as some people here are saying) gains.

Someone contemplating buying a 2019 (5 year old) van would, using my formula, expect to see asking prices of about £59.5k, and assuming they negotiate that down by 10%, pay about £54k.

View attachment 119814

View attachment 119815

I saw this and I feel really grateful for someone having gone through this analysis. It does support what I observed in the market just this month. We purchased our Beach last February and I have just seen the same Beach I was looking at last year, advertised this year again for the same asking price. Initially, I thought that it was just a coincidence but the above pretty much proves it. The new van market is going up and it takes the used car market alongside with it. I do wonder if there is a theoretical ceiling for the new van price as 75k new seems pretty steep but essentially the depreciation should be relatively minimal (especially compared to your typical a->b cars - i.e. 60% in 5 years or similar)

 

[JollyGoodShow]

I saw this and I feel really grateful for someone having gone through this analysis. It does support what I observed in the market just this month. We purchased our Beach last February and I have just seen the same Beach I was looking at last year, advertised this year again for the same asking price. Initially, I thought that it was just a coincidence but the above pretty much proves it. The new van market is going up and it takes the used car market alongside with it. I do wonder if there is a theoretical ceiling for the new van price as 75k new seems pretty steep but essentially the depreciation should be relatively minimal (especially compared to your typical a->b cars - i.e. 60% in 5 years or similar)

There is something specific about Californias, I think. Over the last 10 years, car prices generally have gone up by 35% (see source below). Wages have gone up by 28% (see below), so they have become relatively more expensive. Part of that is that cars do more - they're safer, more fuel efficient, have more connectivity, etc - and part is that costs have risen faster than incomes.

But Californias, by my very basic arithmetic, have risen from about £45k to about £65k (you will have to form your own judgement on what is like-for-like; the 2014 price list is in this thread and new prices are on the VW webside). That's a 45% increase.

So I believe that new Californias have risen in price faster than cars generally and wages. I'm assuming that pandemic blip has now worked itself through the system, so I don't think that explains it, but that's obviously debatable.

How will that play out in future? The trend could continue - if campervans are seen as a desirable luxury good, people might be willing to pay ever more for them, as they do for designer handbags. Or it could stabilise - campervans shouldn't really grow in price faster than cars or prices or wages generally. Or it could reverse, and campervan inflation in the next 10 years could be less than cars generally, perhaps because a proportion of the cost of a campervan are things like beds and the pop top roof which aren't heavily electronic, while cars generally become more like a computer on wheels.

To your specific question that £75k seems pretty steep, that's I think a perception to do with inflation and our own anchoring. To me, £1m for a house seems ridiculous, but there are apparently about 700,000 of them now. I remember when you could buy a country estate for £300k. In 10 years, if general car inflation continues at the trend we have seen over the last 10 years, a Cali will be £101k.

 

[Go Zizzz]

I don't really pay much attention to the accurate figures as firstly, past performance is no guarantee of future results and secondly, I was buying a toy / adventure / new car / pub conversation / hobby etc, not an investment fund for my pension.
However, I agree that just accepting that very low depreciation is a factor in justifying the purchase to yourself is a valid point. If you can afford it and if you really want it - buy it.
For example though (because we all like to know details) I bought an Ocean in June 21 for £62k and have had such great use out of it and enjoyment from it, that I will collect a new one next month. Justification (to myself) is based on them not making them shortly and no real replacement in sight, along with some features I wish I'd ordered the last time. The great deals offered atm help too. I have been offered £57,500 PX. The new one ( with 4motion and a load of extras) is £20k more, but half of this is inflation and half is extras. And I will get new tyres / batteries / cam belt / water pump / 5 year guarantee and all servicing & roadside assistance.
I'm very happy that it's money well spent.

 

[jeannie]

I had my T5 for 13 years and sold it for £4000 less than I paid. Very happy with that

 

[Jay586]

You're probably not in the market for a smaller converter but NWCC down in Cowbridge is turning out a fab looking Sprinter conversion.

They make furniture for other, pretty well-known higher-end campervan firms too.

Really interesting visit there. I just had my little Caddy pimped & they did a fab job & there were Mercedes people there talking about the work.

If I was looking bigger than my T6.1, which I may well do, I'd get a custom one.

I was supposed to be getting mine valued by Liverpool but it's rained so much, I've not had a chance to clean it. . I think it will have depreciated about 2/3k a year, as it was bought new in Covid, 22-plate Coast.

The current offer is excellent.

 

[derek_j_buchanan]

Hi,
I have a budget for either a Cali, year 2016-19 with mileage important to me. One issue I'm struggling with is depreciation calculations. I've looked on various sites and there is such a variation of how to calculate so I would appreciate advice of real owners. A percentage figure of a from date (purchase) to now or recently sold would be great help. No cash cost needed, second hand I would think is more accurate than new to second hand but any advice would be better than none.

Thanks you
Keith

 

[derek_j_buchanan]

We have had 2 calis. The first we had for 7 yrs. it was an 07 and we owned from new. Sold it for £7k less than we paid. The ‘14 reg we sold just before XMass we sold after 9 yrs of ownership from new for £3.5k less than we paid for it. for a decent 2014 model you should expect to pay £43-45k I would think expect depreciation to be a few hundred a year. But past performance is not necessarily a good predictor of the future.

 

[soulstyledevon]

I had my T5 for 13 years and sold it for £4000 less than I paid. Very happy with that

Yes, but a T5 Cali was about £38k 13 years ago. Today they’re around £70k.
This distorts the figures.

 

[soulstyledevon]

My Beach in 2011/12 was £32k. Sold 5 years later for £25k.
I was pretty happy at the time, wish I still had it truth be told. Probably still worth £25k…

What van you getting…?

 

[Ch1pbutty]

My Beach in 2011/12 was £32k. Sold 5 years later for £25k.
I was pretty happy at the time, wish I still had it truth be told. Probably still worth £25k…

What van you getting…?

2015 Club Joker