Depreciation

[KAP0902]

Hi,
I have a budget for either a Cali, year 2016-19 with mileage important to me. One issue I'm struggling with is depreciation calculations. I've looked on various sites and there is such a variation of how to calculate so I would appreciate advice of real owners. A percentage figure of a from date (purchase) to now or recently sold would be great help. No cash cost needed, second hand I would think is more accurate than new to second hand but any advice would be better than none.

Thanks you
Keith

 

[Nik_campervan]

Historically very little depreciation but covid created a unique scenario we will likely never see again where any leisure vehicle increased in value often beyond its original price.
Increasing environmental restrictions will have an impact conversley daft costs for hybrid/ ev technology will make campers of that type out of reach of most (although many on here arent reflective of most ppls living standards).

 

[Ch1pbutty]

Would say that there isnt any!

You should be able to get your outlay back (or more) when you eventually sell it on. Would say that older vans tend to hold their value better, as they sometimes have a slightly better spec.

We have had used T2, T25, T4 & T5.1, and have always sold the vans after say 4/5 years and sold at a profit which has been enough to cover all running costs (apart from fuel!).

 

[Elmo3]

We’ve owned 3 Calis since 2017 and overall depreciation has been nothing. A 2019 Cali is a big chunk of cash. Might be worth looking at a new one (be quick though). Good discount, 50% deposit with the balance at 0% over 5 years. 5 year warranty, 5 services. Do the man maths against the running costs of an older van and you might be surprised.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

@mountainman did a good total cost of ownership spreadsheet. The offer on new vans is indeed fantastic.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

Thread 'How much does it cost to run a Cali?'
https://vwcaliforniaclub.com/threads/how-much-does-it-cost-to-run-a-cali.12983/

That one.

 

[RockinNRollin]

I honestly wouldn't worry or overthink depreciation. With so much churn in the automotive industry, economic pressure and green pressures, I think it's literally impossible to predict what will happen beyond a few years into the future. 20 years ago you might have had a good idea, now, it could be anything. If you want it and can afford it, buy it and enjoy it - just don't be relying on a specific residual value in X years because it may or may not be worth that. If your future budget needs are expected to be so tight that you need it to be worth X, I would suggest you may want to consider a lower priced vehicle where residuals are less critical. I know that possibly sounds a bit harsh, but that is how I would (and did) approach it.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

If you work on mountainman’s figure of 58p per mile TCO you won’t be far out. Remember that doesn’t include campsite costs, which aren’t cheap.

 

[Ch1pbutty]

I would avoid buying a new van until the roof canvas issue is properly sorted.

 

[Corradobrit]

I would avoid buying a new van until the roof canvas issue is properly sorted.

Time maybe against you with order books closing imminently.

 

[CamperFam]

For context, we bought our used Cali Ocean 199 in June 2020 for 56k with 2k miles. It's currently valued at 52k with 24k miles.

Tough to predict the future, especially with the T6.1 production end in June (and order books almost full), but expect values to remain bouyant for a time.

 

[Lee.Van.Cleef]

On this subject, I've been looking to sell my Cali Ocean as I made a mistake and really need something bigger which I bought brand new in Dec 23, it's only done 700 miles and has a list price of 80k. I tried 6 different dealers and everyone refused to bid on it as they're all saying they have too much stock. The only trade quote I could get offered me a messily £64k, WBAC offered £56k!!!!

I agree in the long term term they've got some of the best residuals out there, but things are starting to return to the pre Covid levels. I know many people say don't even think about depreciation, and if you're planning to keep yours for 10 - 15 years I agree. However if you're looking to flip every 3 to 5 years into a new one, I'd expect lower residuals than we've seen over the past 5 years.

Lots to ponder. Imagine we'll be looking to upsize to something bigger in a year or two, so I've been keeping half an eye on residual values, really just as food for thought at this stage. I couldn't take WBAC seriously but would be interested to know which dealers offer the most uesful prices either as a purchase or trade in.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

Sell privately. Just sold ours locally on Facebook Marketplace!

Have you kept your record intact and made a profit on this one ?

 

[Mansfieldman750]

On this subject, I've been looking to sell my Cali Ocean as I made a mistake and really need something bigger which I bought brand new in Dec 23, it's only done 700 miles and has a list price of 80k. I tried 6 different dealers and everyone refused to bid on it as they're all saying they have too much stock. The only trade quote I could get offered me a messily £64k, WBAC offered £56k!!!!

I agree in the long term term they've got some of the best residuals out there, but things are starting to return to the pre Covid levels. I know many people say don't even think about depreciation, and if you're planning to keep yours for 10 - 15 years I agree. However if you're looking to flip every 3 to 5 years into a new one, I'd expect lower residuals than we've seen over the past 5 years.

Wow, it’s changed days. I remember when I picked up ours in October 2021 from Eurovans Crawley. As I was about to pull away Dave Marney the salesman opened the door and said “ John, I know you’re going to love that van, but if for any reason you don’t get on with it, let me know and I’m sure we can give you more than you paid for it. “
That’s markets for you. Supply and demand.

 

[Jimmylondon07]

On this subject, I've been looking to sell my Cali Ocean as I made a mistake and really need something bigger which I bought brand new in Dec 23, it's only done 700 miles and has a list price of 80k. I tried 6 different dealers and everyone refused to bid on it as they're all saying they have too much stock. The only trade quote I could get offered me a messily £64k, WBAC offered £56k!!!!

I agree in the long term term they've got some of the best residuals out there, but things are starting to return to the pre Covid levels. I know many people say don't even think about depreciation, and if you're planning to keep yours for 10 - 15 years I agree. However if you're looking to flip every 3 to 5 years into a new one, I'd expect lower residuals than we've seen over the past 5 years.

pretty sure I remember you poo-pooing them a while back Bazza (correct me if I’m wrong) but have you tried out a GC? VW might be willing to give you a bit more for your Ocean if p/exing it against another VW.

I’ve had similar feelings about getting something bigger but I’m going to give it a go this spring and summer, if you only got it in December you probably haven’t experienced your Ocean at its full potential yet.

 

[JollyGoodShow]

A slow afternoon in the office, so I typed in the age, mileage and price for 50 of the California Oceans and SEs on sale in AutoTrader today and ran some very basic stats.

89% of the quoted prices on AutoTrader for California Oceans and SEs are explained by the formula £76,770 less £3,439 per year. That 89% (the R-squared) suggests a strong correlation between age and price. You can see the scatter chart below, assuming I have pasted it correctly.

So for example, the formula suggests that the advertised price for a brand new Ocean is £76,770, and that the average price for a 10 year old SE is £76,770 less £34,390 which is £42,380.

I wouldn't expect someone to pay the asking price on AutoTrader, so actual prices price might be (say) 5% - 15% lower. That doesn't matter too much so long as the negotiated prices are roughly the same percentage of the asking price for all ages and values.

I would expect - if market conditions remain the same - the AutoTrader asking price for a California bought now to drop by around £3.5k, or about 5%, per annum.

New car prices rise each year, so a new California bought 10 years ago would have cost less than £76,700. If new car prices had risen by 5% per annum (not compounded) over that period, then someone buying a Cali 10 years ago might have paid around £42,380 at the time for a new van, and therefore wouldn't have experienced much if any depreciation at all. In fact I found a table in another post (see below) showing OTR prices in 2014 varied from £45k - £52k, so someone buying at list price in 2014 would likely have experienced a very small amount of depreciation - perhaps £500 per year, on average. A shrewd negotiator who looked after their van could easily see no depreciation or even (as some people here are saying) gains.

Someone contemplating buying a 2019 (5 year old) van would, using my formula, expect to see asking prices of about £59.5k, and assuming they negotiate that down by 10%, pay about £54k.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

A slow afternoon in the office, so I typed in the age, mileage and price for 50 of the California Oceans and SEs on sale in AutoTrader today and ran some very basic stats.

89% of the quoted prices on AutoTrader for California Oceans and SEs are explained by the formula £76,770 less £3,439 per year. That 89% (the R-squared) suggests a strong correlation between age and price. You can see the scatter chart below, assuming I have pasted it correctly.

So for example, the formula suggests that the advertised price for a brand new Ocean is £76,770, and that the average price for a 10 year old SE is £76,770 less £34,390 which is £42,380.

I wouldn't expect someone to pay the asking price on AutoTrader, so actual prices price might be (say) 5% - 15% lower. That doesn't matter too much so long as the negotiated prices are roughly the same percentage of the asking price for all ages and values.

I would expect - if market conditions remain the same - the AutoTrader asking price for a California bought now to drop by around £3.5k, or about 5%, per annum.

New car prices rise each year, so a new California bought 10 years ago would have cost less than £76,700. If new car prices had risen by 5% per annum (not compounded) over that period, then someone buying a Cali 10 years ago might have paid around £42,380 at the time for a new van, and therefore wouldn't have experienced much if any depreciation at all. In fact I found a table in another post (see below) showing OTR prices in 2014 varied from £45k - £52k, so someone buying at list price in 2014 would likely have experienced a very small amount of depreciation - perhaps £500 per year, on average. A shrewd negotiator who looked after their van could easily see no depreciation or even (as some people here are saying) gains.

Someone contemplating buying a 2019 (5 year old) van would, using my formula, expect to see asking prices of about £59.5k, and assuming they negotiate that down by 10%, pay about £54k.

View attachment 119814

View attachment 119815

Impressive work, but if someone bought a van in 2014 for £42,380 and the van is worth £42,380 in 2024, the van has not depreciated in nominal terms only.
But in real terms, according to the Bank of England inflation calculator £42,380 in 2014 £s is equivalent to £55,743.95 in 2024 £s, so it has depreciated.

 

[JuanVecino2023]

A slow afternoon in the office, so I typed in the age, mileage and price for 50 of the California Oceans and SEs on sale in AutoTrader today and ran some very basic stats.

89% of the quoted prices on AutoTrader for California Oceans and SEs are explained by the formula £76,770 less £3,439 per year. That 89% (the R-squared) suggests a strong correlation between age and price. You can see the scatter chart below, assuming I have pasted it correctly.

So for example, the formula suggests that the advertised price for a brand new Ocean is £76,770, and that the average price for a 10 year old SE is £76,770 less £34,390 which is £42,380.

I wouldn't expect someone to pay the asking price on AutoTrader, so actual prices price might be (say) 5% - 15% lower. That doesn't matter too much so long as the negotiated prices are roughly the same percentage of the asking price for all ages and values.

I would expect - if market conditions remain the same - the AutoTrader asking price for a California bought now to drop by around £3.5k, or about 5%, per annum.

New car prices rise each year, so a new California bought 10 years ago would have cost less than £76,700. If new car prices had risen by 5% per annum (not compounded) over that period, then someone buying a Cali 10 years ago might have paid around £42,380 at the time for a new van, and therefore wouldn't have experienced much if any depreciation at all. In fact I found a table in another post (see below) showing OTR prices in 2014 varied from £45k - £52k, so someone buying at list price in 2014 would likely have experienced a very small amount of depreciation - perhaps £500 per year, on average. A shrewd negotiator who looked after their van could easily see no depreciation or even (as some people here are saying) gains.

Someone contemplating buying a 2019 (5 year old) van would, using my formula, expect to see asking prices of about £59.5k, and assuming they negotiate that down by 10%, pay about £54k.

View attachment 119814

View attachment 119815

Beautiful. "Without data, you are just another person with an opinion"

 

[JollyGoodShow]

I just did the same stats using the Cali Oceans and SEs on sale on this website. These are an older population of Calis, without the distortions of the new £85k Calis on AutoTrader.

The data here suggest that the formula for the asking price of a Cali Ocean or SE is £70,022 less £2,880 per year, but on this dataset that formula only explains 75% of the variation in the data (with specification and mileage presumably explaining some of the rest).

On this dataset, a 2019 Cali would have an asking price of £55,622, somewhat lower than the prediction using Auto Trader data alone.

 

[SusiBus]

A slow afternoon in the office, so I typed in the age, mileage and price for 50 of the California Oceans and SEs on sale in AutoTrader today and ran some very basic stats.

89% of the quoted prices on AutoTrader for California Oceans and SEs are explained by the formula £76,770 less £3,439 per year. That 89% (the R-squared) suggests a strong correlation between age and price. You can see the scatter chart below, assuming I have pasted it correctly.

So for example, the formula suggests that the advertised price for a brand new Ocean is £76,770, and that the average price for a 10 year old SE is £76,770 less £34,390 which is £42,380.

I wouldn't expect someone to pay the asking price on AutoTrader, so actual prices price might be (say) 5% - 15% lower. That doesn't matter too much so long as the negotiated prices are roughly the same percentage of the asking price for all ages and values.

I would expect - if market conditions remain the same - the AutoTrader asking price for a California bought now to drop by around £3.5k, or about 5%, per annum.

New car prices rise each year, so a new California bought 10 years ago would have cost less than £76,700. If new car prices had risen by 5% per annum (not compounded) over that period, then someone buying a Cali 10 years ago might have paid around £42,380 at the time for a new van, and therefore wouldn't have experienced much if any depreciation at all. In fact I found a table in another post (see below) showing OTR prices in 2014 varied from £45k - £52k, so someone buying at list price in 2014 would likely have experienced a very small amount of depreciation - perhaps £500 per year, on average. A shrewd negotiator who looked after their van could easily see no depreciation or even (as some people here are saying) gains.

Someone contemplating buying a 2019 (5 year old) van would, using my formula, expect to see asking prices of about £59.5k, and assuming they negotiate that down by 10%, pay about £54k.

View attachment 119814

View attachment 119815

OK, You've lost me! So, being interested in depreciation, is it the right decision to buy one of the last T6.1's?

 

[JollyGoodShow]

Either way, it looks to me like depreciation on a California has historically been very low indeed. If the past is a guide, I can't refute the assertion that someone buying a Cali now might experience zero depreciation in nominal terms.

 

[JollyGoodShow]

OK, You've lost me! So, being interested in depreciation, is it the right decision to buy one of the last T6.1's?

No one say what will happen in the future. What the data show is that historically Californias have suffered incredibly low depreciation.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

Either way, it looks to me like depreciation on a California has historically been very low indeed. If the past is a guide, I can't refute the assertion that someone buying a Cali now might experience zero depreciation in nominal terms.

No doubt about it. Nothing to touch them for holding their value.

 

[Elmo3]

I can see how, in the short term, values could be under pressure. When looking at a fairly new van, the current list price is irrelevant, because a decent discount on a factory order is possible, you get 5 year warranty and servicing but most importantly, 5 years 0% finance on 50% of the balance.

Even if you have the cash, you can earn circa 5% risk free on your £35K or so. Work out the present value of that over a 5 year term, it’s thousands of pounds of essentially further discount. Your 6 month old 80K list price van is suddenly worth circa 65K new, so needs to be less than that to sell used.

 

[Barry Chuckle]

pretty sure I remember you poo-pooing them a while back Bazza (correct me if I’m wrong) but have you tried out a GC? VW might be willing to give you a bit more for your Ocean if p/exing it against another VW.

I’ve had similar feelings about getting something bigger but I’m going to give it a go this spring and summer, if you only got it in December you probably haven’t experienced your Ocean at its full potential yet.

Jimmy you must have read my mind! You're absolutely spot on, I've really wrestled with the option of a GC and keep going back to see if I can live with them, they're very discounted and many of the dealers I called said they could only consider my Cali if it was a trade for GC. I've looked at them and tried to change my views, but to me they're just too clinical & utilitarian looking for me,. They're really good value for money but just don't feel 'warm' like the Cali or other larger conversions. I really don't want to offend any GC owners as with 0% over 5 years and discounts of c10% they're a very compelling proposition.

The best Crafter/Man conversion to me the Sven Hedin which imo is the perfect blend of modern interior and homely feel, but for most the 2 berths wouldn't work. The Widax Altair seems really good value at the moment with many discounted new from £97k to £90k.

I do love the Cali and it's cemented my love of campers (my first ever) but as my years advance I know I'm going to want an integrated bathroom/shower & fixed bed which the Cali doesn't offer. I'm guessing you've done some research yourself the only other option avoiding wide Motorhomes is the Hymer but I can't quite work out what the extra 20k - 30k over the former gets you?