Diesel and electric charge points? The battle

[MarkVw2017]

You're all an educated and well read bunch, so what year do you feel that electric charging points will match the number of Diesel/ petrol points and therefore start to outnumber Diesel / petrol pumps?

 

[Beeechke1]

That's a bit like the the governments Pension Wise booklet planning for your retirement. "The first question you have to consider in planning your retirement is how long do you expect to live"

 

[Legin]

Probably never as I suspect it will be another technology like hydrogen or nuclear.

 

[Borris]

You're all an educated and well read bunch, so what year do you feel that electric charging points will match the number of Diesel/ petrol points and therefore start to outnumber Diesel / petrol pumps?

Never. I think that it's much more likely that it will finally dawn on all those concerned that EVs aren't the answer. I beleive that will happen long before that point is ever reached. Pure EVs are useful but not everywhere and certainly not for all applications.

 

[B J G]

Fossil fuel 'recharge' takes minutes to complete enabling a fast throughput of vehicles.
Electric Power recharge takes many hours currently. This entails a parking facility, space is at a premium in UK and City based refuelling points would take an uneconomic purchase of land to accommodate parking facilities.
Motorway Services would also need greatly expanded parking areas. Service area hopping with fast part charging wouldn't change the National need for charging.

no doubt someone can produce the charge time per mile driven ratio.

 

[Amarillo]

You're all an educated and well read bunch, so what year do you feel that electric charging points will match the number of Diesel/ petrol points and therefore start to outnumber Diesel / petrol pumps?

EVs will only ever work as city cars. Nearly every socket in your home is a potential charging point, so they already outnumber the number of diesel/petrol points. So following this pedant's point, the question is whether rapid charge points will outnumber diesel/petrol pumps, and I cannot possibly know the answer to that. If it takes ~5 minutes to refuel at a pump and ~30 minutes to re-charge at a rapid point, you might expect the crossover to occur when the number of EVs are about a sixth of the number of ICEVs.

 

[MarkVw2017]

EVs will only ever work as city cars. Nearly every socket in your home is a potential charging point, so they already outnumber the number of diesel/petrol points. So following this pedant's point, the question is whether rapid charge points will outnumber diesel/petrol pumps, and I cannot possibly know the answer to that. If it takes ~5 minutes to refuel at a pump and ~30 minutes to re-charge at a rapid point, you might expect the crossover to occur when the number of EVs are about a sixth of the number of ICEVs.

Good answer, but plus sockets are usually 24 hour charge, sigh, so I suppose I did mean super dooper fast charging points, but again, are Extinction Rebellion groups looking at EVs as the transport 'green' alternative?

 

[Amarillo]

Good answer, but plus sockets are usually 24 hour charge, sigh, so I suppose I did mean super dooper fast charging points, but again, are Extinction Rebellion groups looking at EVs as the transport 'green' alternative?

I expect they'd like to see more cycling, more rail travel and EVs used between station and destination.

 

[MarkVw2017]

I expect they'd like to see more cycling, more rail travel and EVs used between station and destination.

Literally just read this from the Honda boss, so might be able to hold onto our Diesel Cali's for about longer than first thought.

 

[Louis II]

I think never. I suspect there are vast numbers of vehicles out there that never do more than 300 miles in one day and will never need a public charge point. Pretty sure my wife's car never has. I would replace it with an eV in a heartbeat except it would cost me twice as much for a car half as good.
For those that do more than 300 miles per day we need another solution.

 

[Velma's Dad]

I think never. I suspect there are vast numbers of vehicles out there that never do more than 300 miles in one day and will never need a public charge point. Pretty sure my wife's car never has. I would replace it with an eV in a heartbeat except it would cost me twice as much for a car half as good.
For those that do more than 300 miles per day we need another solution.

Completely agree. Four out of five UK drivers do less than 10,000 miles per year - that's an average of 27 miles a day - so for most people, very few days will involve a need to top-up charge. Even ignoring the long range Tesla, most of the current generation of EVs can do 150 miles on a charge even in winter conditions.

That model doesn't work of course for car owners who don't have a private driveway/charging point. But I see lamp-post chargers already going in in a lot of places.

I realise this doesn't cater for the campervan use-case, but the re are millions of people for whom the EV is a perfectly practical proposition even if there are no public charging points.

I have no doubt our next daily-driver car will be an EV. We'll then use the Cali as our long range transport even if we can't be @rsed to use the train more.

 

[Whistler]

Completely agree. Four out of five UK drivers do less than 10,000 miles per year - that's an average of 27 miles a day - so for most people, very few days will involve a need to top-up charge. Even ignoring the long range Tesla, most of the current generation of EVs can do 150 miles on a charge even in winter conditions.

The problem with averages is its an average. People may have low daily mileage but make a number of longer trips during the year so an electric car with 150 mile range is no good to them.

I also don't buy that rapid charging is going to take off. Lets assume charging a 45 kWh battery in 45 minutes. That would need a power requirement of 60kW, assuming it was 100% efficient . Using a 3 phase supply (415v) that would need over 80 amps per phase to a single charging station. For comparison, the supply to my house is single phase and fused at 100 Amps. Despite what the EV lobby say about charging, the laws of physics will continue to apply.

 

[Amarillo]

The problem with averages is its an average. People may have low daily mileage but make a number of longer trips during the year so an electric car with 150 mile range is no good to them.

I also don't buy that rapid charging is going to take off. Lets assume charging a 45 kWh battery in 45 minutes. That would need a power requirement of 60kW, assuming it was 100% efficient . Using a 3 phase supply (415v) that would need over 80 amps per phase to a single charging station. For comparison, the supply to my house is single phase and fused at 100 Amps. Despite what the EV lobby say about charging, the laws of physics will continue to apply.

If EVs do take off (and that's a big if), I image motorway service stations will look similar to today's, but just about every parking spot will have a charging point, and a great chain of pylons will be leading from the nearest wind farm, solar farm, nuclear reactor or tidal barrier to an electricity substation at the service station.

 

[Bellcrew]

The problem with averages is its an average. People may have low daily mileage but make a number of longer trips during the year so an electric car with 150 mile range is no good to them.

I also don't buy that rapid charging is going to take off. Lets assume charging a 45 kWh battery in 45 minutes. That would need a power requirement of 60kW, assuming it was 100% efficient . Using a 3 phase supply (415v) that would need over 80 amps per phase to a single charging station. For comparison, the supply to my house is single phase and fused at 100 Amps. Despite what the EV lobby say about charging, the laws of physics will continue to apply.

When was the last time you heard a chartered power engineer being interviewed about the problems of balancing the grid with the dramatically variable "reusable" inputs with the diminishing nuclear base load and at the same time avoiding the use of the evil hydrocarbons.
Lots of arts graduates with zero mathematical/technical knowledge will of course be in charge.

 

[larrylamb]

My take on the whole EV idea is that it won't be suitable for everyone in my lifetime, but if we could get to 40-50% of vehicles being electric how good would that be for localised vehicle emissions. It's got to be better than where we stand now.
The technology will improve massively as each year goes by, battery development creating longer range, quicker charging, better charging networks and more affordability. We will see inductive charging with no need for cables on pavements etc, more charging whilst driving ie. solar, regenerative, also cars giving back electric to the national grid at peak times to enable charging at a cheaper rate off peak etc etc.
We are not there yet of course but it will be a viable alternative to the ICE for many in years to come, i bet a lot of people on this forum have 2, 3 maybe more cars in their household, if it was possible to change one to electric for localised journeys, commutes etc would you?? I've not got big pockets but at some point it will be affordable for me to swap one of my cars for electric and I won't have a problem with that. Just not sure how far away that decision will be.

 

[willwander]

Affordability is the key. As soon as EVs are better and cheaper than ICE, adoption will be swift.

If we reach that point, and the demand is there, then I'm sure it would be possible to roll out a charging infrastructure within a couple of years.

 

[Amarillo]

Affordability is the key. As soon as EVs are better and cheaper than ICE, adoption will be swift.

I'm not sure EVs need to be cheaper than ICEs in terms of purchase price, only cheaper in terms of purchase price and medium term (5-10 years) running costs combined.

 

[Sunstoner]

The technology will improve massively as each year goes by, battery development creating longer range, quicker charging, better charging networks and more affordability. We will see inductive charging with no need for cables on pavements etc, more charging whilst driving ie. solar, regenerative, also cars giving back electric to the national grid at peak times to enable charging at a cheaper rate off peak etc etc.

This is exactly what I was gonna say too re inductive charging. All new homes with Solar panels, storage batteries, cars with solar panels giving excess back to the system. Electricity is all there to be had, theres just not the right infrastructure nor technology but that'll come.

With wireless technologies in place, charging should almost be a myth. Not quite yet though.

 

[ShmBK]

As a Tesla and a Cali owner, I often time the detour to a garage, queue, fill and pay. It’s always 10-15 mins.

Time to supercharge in Dundee 20-30 mins. but I can go for a pee, get a snack, walk the dog.

so for a rare long journey, Leaving home with the Tesla on full charge, and then stopping at a supercharger (usually conveniently placed on a motorway like in Perth or Dundee), means a well planned Aberdeen to Carlisle trip takes about same time in a Tesla than it does in Cali.

day to day travelling. I can easily charge every 4th or 5th day at home. Or detour to a charger next to ikea, coffee shop or dog walking destination. And that would be a free charge (in Scotland)

100% electric transport is very achievable for most people. With cars. Sadly, I think an electric Cali is a long way off.

I doubthat batteries with rare earth metals are better in the long run. But I know I’m contributing to cleaner air in our towns and cities.

 

[Louis II]

I'm not sure EVs need to be cheaper than ICEs in terms of purchase price, only cheaper in terms of purchase price and medium term (5-10 years) running costs combined.

Not sure the general population are that sophisticated in their decision making and will subconsciously attribute greater significance to any upfront cost l, loan commitment etc than to ongoing maintenance / running costs.

 

[Soton Campers]

Maybe it'll become like camping gaz. Just swop that empty battery for a new one! Obviously would need standards on battery size, capacity, connections etc but I wonder...

 

[Gary&Heather]

I think EV's will play their part but mainly for commuting short journeys as it's been said before there is a limit and they are not the answer and I'm still wondering where all this wonderful electricity is going to come from when we can't even boil a kettle in between an England match

 

[willwander]

As a Tesla and a Cali owner, I often time the detour to a garage, queue, fill and pay. It’s always 10-15 mins.

Time to supercharge in Dundee 20-30 mins. but I can go for a pee, get a snack, walk the dog.

so for a rare long journey, Leaving home with the Tesla on full charge, and then stopping at a supercharger (usually conveniently placed on a motorway like in Perth or Dundee), means a well planned Aberdeen to Carlisle trip takes about same time in a Tesla than it does in Cali.

day to day travelling. I can easily charge every 4th or 5th day at home. Or detour to a charger next to ikea, coffee shop or dog walking destination. And that would be a free charge (in Scotland)

100% electric transport is very achievable for most people. With cars. Sadly, I think an electric Cali is a long way off.

I doubthat batteries with rare earth metals are better in the long run. But I know I’m contributing to cleaner air in our towns and cities.

Tesla and a Cali, my perfect combo

Unfortunately, both a bit pricy.
knackered old golf for now lol

 

[Ch1pbutty]

..

I think EV's will play their part but mainly for commuting short journeys as it's been said before there is a limit and they are not the answer and I'm still wondering where all this wonderful electricity is going to come from when we can't even boil a kettle in between an England match

nuclear & renewables

 

[ShmBK]

I think EV's will play their part but mainly for commuting short journeys as it's been said before there is a limit and they are not the answer and I'm still wondering where all this wonderful electricity is going to come from when we can't even boil a kettle in between an England match

Plenty renewables in Scotland. Ask Nicola for a discount when we’re independent (/joke)