Electric & self driving cars vs Cali

[Californicator]

If you believe the hype it will be a mere few years before electric cars & (allegedly) self driving vehicles become mainstream.

Given that a California is a fairly huge outlay of cash, are any owners or prospective owners concerned that it may become an obsolete purchase in the near future?!

Cali ownership likely goes against some of these trends but was interested on views given the large financial outlay involved....

 

[Meoncoast]

Just get a self driving Cali - stay in the back make tea put the kettle on and on a long trip put the bed up a sleep

 

[Hotel California]

If all cars ever be self driving it will sure not be during my life on this planet.

A selfdriving car is something i never would get anyway.
I like to drive , feel the car , experience driving....
Just take the train or a plain if you want to read the newspaper and drink thee while travelling.

I keep the "myself driving Cali"....

All cars selfdriving ....never will happen.

Btw , been discussed before on the forum in other treads.

 

[Velma's Dad]

If you believe the hype it will be a mere few years before electric cars & (allegedly) self driving vehicles become mainstream.

Regarding self-driving vehicles (autonomous vehicles - AVs) I don't think it's hype, and there is a huge weight of economic logic and competitive industrial impetus. But it depends what you mean by 'mainstream'.

AVs will have to be able to share the road with human-controlled vehicles, for the foreseeable future. Initially it seems very likely that AVs will be confined to delimited areas, starting with cities and intercity routes, although those areas will steadily expand. That process could be pretty quick actually - think how quickly mobile phone networks expanded.

The question of how many conventional vehicles will remain will depend I think on how much cheaper it ends up being to use AVs compared to conventional vehicles. Note I say 'use' rather than 'own': most commentators are expecting that AVs will be much more like driverless taxis - ie you call up and use one when you need it. The number of people owning their own vehicle will steadily fall until it becomes a small minority who keep one.

Once AVs are an option, at least for some journeys, I think there's bound to be an acceleration in the number of young people who don't bother to learn to drive. They will just use a combination of pooled AV services and conventional public transport. In the UK we have already seen a very significant drop in young people taking driving tests, attributed to a number of factors including the increasing shift to living in cities and also the increasing costs of learning and insurance.

Conventional human-driven campervans and MHs will eventually, become the preserve of well-heeled oldies. Actually, what am I saying... 'eventually'??

 

[sidepod]

Get a grip.

 

[Californicator]

Regarding self-driving vehicles (autonomous vehicles - AVs) I don't think it's hype, and there is a huge weight of economic logic and competitive industrial impetus. But it depends what you mean by 'mainstream'.

AVs will have to be able to share the road with human-controlled vehicles, for the foreseeable future. Initially it seems very likely that AVs will be confined to delimited areas, starting with cities and intercity routes, although those areas will steadily expand. That process could be pretty quick actually - think how quickly mobile phone networks expanded.

The question of how many conventional vehicles will remain will depend I think on how much cheaper it ends up being to use AVs compared to conventional vehicles. Note I say 'use' rather than 'own': most commentators are expecting that AVs will be much more like driverless taxis - ie you call up and use one when you need it. The number of people owning their own vehicle will steadily fall until it becomes a small minority who keep one.

Once AVs are an option, at least for some journeys, I think there's bound to be an acceleration in the number of young people who don't bother to learn to drive. They will just use a combination of pooled AV services and conventional public transport. In the UK we have already seen a very significant drop in young people taking driving tests, attributed to a number of factors including the increasing shift to living in cities and also the increasing costs of learning and insurance.

Conventional human-driven campervans and MHs will eventually, become the preserve of well-heeled oldies. Actually, what am I saying... 'eventually'??

Completely agree with all of this....
And I think it will come slot sooner than most people realise. Also agree with the sentiment about wanting the pleasure of driving yourself/freedom of the road etc & the essence of van ownership.

Leaving AV/self driving aside, what are people's views on the wisdom of spending a large amount of cash on a diesel with electric cars looming large?

 

[Digger]

As we struggle to produce electricity just now to cover our needs I would not concern myself.
I just get out and enjoy the freedom without worrying about those headlines and techno ideas flouted by big self interest corporations. Life is too short

 

[Californicator]

A we struggle to produce electricity just now to cover our needs I would not concern myself.
I just get out and enjoy te freedom without worrying about those headlines and techno ideas flouted by big self interest corporations. Life is too short

A good philosophy I suspect - & I note the other threads here on this topic, good to see I'm not the only one concerned but good for thought. If only 2nd hand Cali's weren't so pricey would be more relaxed!

 

[motacyclist]

I don't think electric power would suit the intended use of a camper vehicle like the Cali. There are very few electric charging points when you travel away from towns and motorways and I don't know of any camp site offering the facility. Having a plug in hybrid ourselves, we have already experienced being unable to access charging points because they are already being used.

And they just take too long to charge up. It's not like waiting a couple of minutes in a filling station for the car in front to move off, they are there for hours.

Sometimes when you arrive the points are out of order, or you don't have a subscription to that particular one.

I suppose you could plug in to the EHU points on site, but drawing near maximum current from a 16 amp connection for hours on end would cause problems, and I don't think the site owners would be too happy. And you can forget about wild camping!

Another point to consider - just turning on the heating/air con can cause a very significant reduction in the electric range; and it's not very pleasant in the winter trying to get a few more miles by turning it off when the windows keep misting up and your feet are freezing!

I am hoping we can get rid of our plug in hybrid before it becomes the Betamax of the 21st century! Hydrogen fuel cells are on the way but I wouldn't let it influence my purchase of a vehicle now.

 

[MattBW]

There is a long way to go with this tech and a lot of challenges to tackle before they are truly mainstream.

The Grid in the UK has generation surplus of about 5%, electric cars would require significantly more investment in power generation than we have today before we can all adopt them. Demand will drive that investment in generation over time.

There are already electric converted vintage beetles and campers but their range isn't yet great, 100 miles for a beetle and about 35-40 miles for a camper. Advances in battery and charging tech will be the game changer here and things are in the pipeline but a few years off.

Self driving cars have a lot of regulatory and technical challenges to overcome too before they become a genuine reality and don't need someone sat at the wheel concentrating as if they were actually driving (realistic expectation?). The amount of safety checks that go into car software/electronics is already pretty huge, to do the same for a car driving itself even more of a mammoth task. There are huge challenges where roads are shared between automatic cars and people, because people are very likely to "bully" auto vehicles if they realise they can get away with it. The way vehicles see also brings challenges and isn't there yet, which is why a tesla crashed into a white lorry and killed its driver. Liability in these accidents also a unresolved issue.

I think what I'm trying to say is, I personally look forward to having an auto driving campervan but I think mainstream adoption is quite a few years off yet. Same with electric vehicles, exciting but maybe in another 10 years we will start getting something.

 

[MattBW]

I am hoping we can get rid of our plug in hybrid before it becomes the Betamax of the 21st century! Hydrogen fuel cells are on the way but I wouldn't let it influence my purchase of a vehicle now.

Hydrogen is an interesting one because at the moment we use electricity to get the hydrogen from water, as most electricity is from fossil fuels its not ideal.

However solar seems to be taking off massively and this may be the key to making hydrogen work as a fuel source. It does seem to all be coming together and it is the one thing humans seem to be good at, overcoming challenges, takes time but it happens.

 

[johnyboy]

Have to disagree on a few points.

1) there is more than enough capacity in the grid https://cleantechnica.com/2014/02/03/grid-capacity-electric-vehicles-actually-problem-studies-find/ and in fact sooner rather than later EVs will help by storing solar energy and releasing in the early evening peak, adding to grid capacity and continuing their charge in the wee hours of the night when there is very little use.

2) Self driving cars ARE real - they are on the road now. Tesla model S is shipping with fully autonomous capabilities but is throttled by the law. Model 3 will reach our shores (and my drive) next Summer and again will be capable of driving without a driver in the seat, but restricted until law changes.

this is why Intel just shelled out a fortune for a hardware manufacturer as it feared falling behind other chip makers like NVidia who are putting a supercomputer in the Tesla to process everything

The driving I see on the roads I say roll on self-driving. No ego, not attitude. However with the autopilot death that you raised, there was a lot of human error, it wasn't ever claiming autonomy and the speed was allowed to be set too high. That being said there have still be fewer fatalities (1) for the millions of miles on autopilot vs human operated deaths.

 

[johnyboy]

Here is the UK grid for reference

 

[Teejay]

Have to disagree on a few points.

1) there is more than enough capacity in the grid https://cleantechnica.com/2014/02/03/grid-capacity-electric-vehicles-actually-problem-studies-find/ and in fact sooner rather than later EVs will help by storing solar energy and releasing in the early evening peak, adding to grid capacity and continuing their charge in the wee hours of the night when there is very little use.

2) Self driving cars ARE real - they are on the road now. Tesla model S is shipping with fully autonomous capabilities but is throttled by the law. Model 3 will reach our shores (and my drive) next Summer and again will be capable of driving without a driver in the seat, but restricted until law changes.

this is why Intel just shelled out a fortune for a hardware manufacturer as it feared falling behind other chip makers like NVidia who are putting a supercomputer in the Tesla to process everything

The driving I see on the roads I say roll on self-driving. No ego, not attitude. However with the autopilot death that you raised, there was a lot of human error, it wasn't ever claiming autonomy and the speed was allowed to be set too high. That being said there have still be fewer fatalities (1) for the millions of miles on autopilot vs human operated deaths.

That video is a bit spooky. One day the time will come when the car buggers off on holiday without you..

Of course it will take pictures and post them on insta-face-gram and you will be able to see what a great time it had without you.



..me..

 

[MattBW]

Have to disagree on a few points.

1) there is more than enough capacity in the grid https://cleantechnica.com/2014/02/03/grid-capacity-electric-vehicles-actually-problem-studies-find/ and in fact sooner rather than later EVs will help by storing solar energy and releasing in the early evening peak, adding to grid capacity and continuing their charge in the wee hours of the night when there is very little use.

Should point out that is an American case study that one I dont know enough about EVs to comment on whether that is applicable here. There is a lot of good info on the challenges with renewables and electric cars. Our useage has actually dropped despite demand growing thanks for LED lightbulbs and more efficient appliances etc. Cars are reversing that trend because its ramping up demand again. We are closing and mothballing coal fired stations, investment in generation plants takes time. We do have about 5% capacity above useage at peak .

Storage only exists on a distribution level at the moment, transmission storage isnt there yet. Storage will really transform things too. I watch Tesla storage with interest.

I stand by my first statement if we all adopted electric cars now we would have a real challenge but its going to take time so there is no real concern. Yup if everyone also adopted solar and storage at the same time maybe a different story but that's not a given. Consumers drive these things as do government policy and regulations. The demand will drive what the industry does, if we all start buying more cars then investors will invest in generation and renewables faster.

If you like that stuff you will find this all very informative.
You can download the National Grid Future energy scenarios here:
http://fes.nationalgrid.com/fes-document/
Also the electricity 10 year statement.
http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Ind...ure-of-Energy/Electricity-Ten-Year-Statement/

Self driving cars are indeed real, but they are new, a way to go as I said before we are all sleeping in our cars whilst we travel to work. That opinion is based upon conversation with someone who works in automotive software and is working on auto driving cars software and social challenges. They aren't ready for release on the public road without someone sat there concentrating ready to take over in an emergency.

 

[Digger]

Every winter the British national grid comes close to being unable to cope with a capacity of about 4% to spare. Using American data is wrong on all counts. Transport Dept estimated the power increase would require massive increase in generation through nuclear. Not my first choice would rather use cleaner fossil fuels instead of nuclear.
As for Tesla I wait to see the future as its head seems intent on world domination. I for one want freedom of choice and hydrogen seems the best option. As for AI driving me about - No thanks.

 

[johnyboy]

Out of the way Gramps we're coming through

 

[Lewis]

Note I say 'use' rather than 'own': most commentators are expecting that AVs will be much more like driverless taxis - ie you call up and use one when you need it. The number of people owning their own vehicle will steadily fall until it becomes a small minority who keep one.

I agree entirely with this and I'd say this is also a natural progression of what people are calling the sharing economy (although I don't agree with the label). Accepting renting over ownership of homes, streaming and renting media rather than buying it, and investing much more in experiences rather than ownership of 'stuff'. Hailing a car sounds much simpler than ownership and I work with a lot of students and 20-something colleagues who share this outlook on materialism (albeit very SE Metropolitan oriented). I can't help but feel that a campervan is a sentimental purchase though and that there will still be a strong market for life-changing investments. For me, the natural consequence of a service and experience driven economy is more people buying campervans not less.

 

[WelshGas]

Love to see a Self Driving vehicle cope with the cyclists in Amsterdam.

 

[Amarillo]

Love to see a Self Driving vehicle cope with the cyclists in Amsterdam.

I expect that initially at least, self driving vehicles would be some sort of hybrid whereby the driver/operator activates self drive mode on roads like motorways and takes control for city driving.

Campervans seem ideal for self driving: instead of driving to a destination then sleeping, you would sleep to a destination then explore.

 

[WelshGas]

I expect that initially at least, self driving vehicles would be some sort of hybrid whereby the driver/operator activates self drive mode on roads like motorways and takes control for city driving.

Campervans seem ideal for self driving: instead of driving to a destination then sleeping, you would sleep to a destination then explore.

They would have to in Amsterdam.
Yet to see a Cycle Helmet nor any form of helmet on Moped riders only Motor Bikes.

 

[MattBW]

Every winter the British national grid comes close to being unable to cope with a capacity of about 4% to spare.

Don't fret too much that's mostly media spin making it sound worse than it is, there are contracts in place to cover extra demand albeit not from the main generators.


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[Amarillo]

They would have to in Amsterdam.
Yet to see a Cycle Helmet nor any form of helmet on Moped riders only Motor Bikes.

To many it just doesn't make sense, but generally, the lower the helmet wearing rates the lower the cyclist head injury rates. The Netherlands had one of the lowest head injury rates for cyclist in the world, yet hardly anyone wears a helmet.

The same is generally true of towns and cities in the UK. Cambridge, for example, has a good cyclist safety record, and again, few wear helmets.

It seems that helmet use is a distraction to cyclists' safety: cyclists' best defence is in numbers.

 

[Digger]

I expect that initially at least, self driving vehicles would be some sort of hybrid whereby the driver/operator activates self drive mode on roads like motorways and takes control for city driving.

Campervans seem ideal for self driving: instead of driving to a destination then sleeping, you would sleep to a destination then explore.

Is that not what buses and trains are for?

 

[Digger]

Don't fret too much that's mostly media spin making it sound worse than it is, there are contracts in place to cover extra demand albeit not from preferred generators.


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Regretfully the fact is the extra demand is covered by imports. Not media spin government data. I just hope the boffins in engineering can make hydrogen cells a reality mainstream.