Electric & self driving cars vs Cali

[hirsty]

I remember we did this one last summer? I agree above it'll all happen a lot quicker than most people expect & certainly well within your lifetime @hotel california

Whatever the equivalent of Moores Law is will mean batteries will get better more quickly & motors will become more efficient more quickly - increased demand will lead to more charging points being installed & wireless chargers will begin embedded in the road like cats eyes. Elon Musk is making big things happen by himself, but massive fleets like Uber & forthcoming Amazon grocery delivery trucks will bring huge scale & price drops for the tech.

Taxation will be used to make the choice that Governments want you to take appear a no-brainer (eg: battery-only cars will be the only VED exempt from April) and anyone hanging on will eventually be gouged by their Insurers as the human owner/operator will be so much more risky to cover than a rented self-driver.

Youngsters take little interest in driving & tying themselves down to job > salary > lifelong car repayments. Now that house ownership is hereditary a lot of things will change very quickly right across the board, motoring included.

We'll get used to it though, no-one misses double-declutching, cleaning their points or AM radio. I expect to get 10 enjoyable years out of my current Cali but it's surely going to get progressively dearer to fuel, tax and insure & I'm not expecting much of a resell!

 

[Kirchberg]

Driving the California from Munich to the Uk last Sunday, I would have loved the car to take over from time to time.


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[Hotel California]

I remember we did this one last summer? I agree above it'll all happen a lot quicker than most people expect & certainly well within your lifetime @hotel california

Whatever the equivalent of Moores Law is will mean batteries will get better more quickly & motors will become more efficient more quickly - increased demand will lead to more charging points being installed & wireless chargers will begin embedded in the road like cats eyes. Elon Musk is making big things happen by himself, but massive fleets like Uber & forthcoming Amazon grocery delivery trucks will bring huge scale & price drops for the tech.

Taxation will be used to make the choice that Governments want you to take appear a no-brainer (eg: battery-only cars will be the only VED exempt from April) and anyone hanging on will eventually be gouged by their Insurers as the human owner/operator will be so much more risky to cover than a rented self-driver.

Youngsters take little interest in driving & tying themselves down to job > salary > lifelong car repayments. Now that house ownership is hereditary a lot of things will change very quickly right across the board, motoring included.

We'll get used to it though, no-one misses double-declutching, cleaning their points or AM radio. I expect to get 10 enjoyable years out of my current Cali but it's surely going to get progressively dearer to fuel, tax and insure & I'm not expecting much of a resell!

In the 1980's prediction was we will be fying in air by 2010 with our cars so no traffic jams anymore....
Selfdriving cars are made and are driving , agree ...but never ever in my (and i think all others on this forum) lifetime we will be driving on the "autoroute du soliel " to south France sitting in the rear with a cup of thee .
...or you are taking the train

 

[hirsty]

VW already have the building blocks of wireless LAN, CANBUS and GPS (plus Siri ) built into your van. A computer already controls the precise amount of braking required individually for each wheel at all times.

Options like Lane Assist & Adaptive Cruise - which people seem to find very handy - are the stepping stones to autonomy.

The diesel boom is over & Tesla S has done wonders for repositioning electric upmarket. I'm not so sure it'll be all that far away ...

 

[MattBW]

Regretfully the fact is the extra demand is covered by imports. Not media spin government data. I just hope the boffins in engineering can make hydrogen cells a reality mainstream.

Not always the case but possible yes.


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[Velma's Dad]

In the 1980's prediction was we will be fying in air by 2010 with our cars so no traffic jams anymore....
Selfdriving cars are made and are driving , agree ...but never ever in my (and i think all others on this forum) lifetime we will be driving on the "autoroute du soliel " to south France sitting in the rear with a cup of thee .
...or you are taking the train

Well there are 19 companies, including nearly all the big car makers, saying they will have fully self-driving cars for sale by 2021. I'm quite middle-aged (and much older than my avatar pic, which was taken 20 years back) but I remain cautiously optimistic that I'll still be drawing breath then.

 

[Amarillo]

Well there are 19 companies, including nearly all the big car makers, saying they will have fully self-driving cars for sale by 2021. I'm quite middle-aged (and much older than my avatar pic, which was taken 20 years back) but I remain cautiously optimistic that I'll still be drawing breath then.

Train companies are having a difficult time reducing the number of staff on trains from two to one, but the Docklands' Light Railway has been operating autonomously for 30 years, and lifts in buildings for considerably longer than that. In the last 5-10 years drones have really taken off (and landed successfully). The final barrier is road travel, but I'd hate to lay money on it taking another 5 years or 50 years, but I'd happily lay a wager on it taking something between 5 and 50 years for 50% or more of motor vehicles on the road having the ability to drive themselves.

 

[briwy]

Taxation will be used to make the choice that Governments want you to take appear a no-brainer (eg: battery-only cars will be the only VED exempt from April) and anyone hanging on will eventually be gouged by their Insurers as the human owner/operator will be so much more risky to cover than a rented self-driver.

Probably so and then a few years on they will decide it's all wrong and change their minds again.
Bit like diesel really

Surely the whole point of electric vehicles, self driving or not, is for environmental reasons.
Presently and for a long time to come as far as I can see this isn't working. Batteries use nasty components and don't currently last long and overall electric cars are horrendously expensive compared to normal vehicles.
No doubt things will improve but I can't see charging times come down to the same time it takes to fill up with petrol/diesel soon so the vast majority of people won't take it up.
I think it will be the preserve of the few who can afford these things as a second vehicle or a a novelty for a long time.
I'm not sure about the rental thing. Cars are very personal things to a lot of people and most of us carry quite a bit stuff around in them and like to customise them to our personal requirements/taste. You only need to look at the threads on here about altering things.
Regarding safety I think it's far too soon to make bold statements that self driving vehicles will be safer. There are far too few around at present to make a judgment on that. Automatic trains bear no resemblance to roads. Fixed tracks, no pedestrians, cyclists, errant dogs/sheep/cattle etc wandering around. I'd love to see it in India.

 

[johnyboy]

I can't help but feel that a campervan is a sentimental purchase though and that there will still be a strong market for life-changing investments. For me, the natural consequence of a service and experience driven economy is more people buying campervans not less.

I'm genuinely thinking of buying a second van to rent out - rather than be tarred with the "landlords are evil and ruining the housing market" brush I am looking at other things to buy and rent

 

[johnyboy]

No doubt things will improve but I can't see charging times come down to the same time it takes to fill up with petrol/diesel soon so the vast majority of people won't take it up.

Regarding safety I think it's far too soon to make bold statements that self driving vehicles will be safer.

First point is a fallacy - your vehicle spends at least 90% of the time not driving, it could be plugged in, even to a three pin domestic plug and have 300 miles range as you leave your drive. If your bladder lasts 300 miles then you're a more advanced human than me!

Second point is fact - fatalities per mile driven are lower with Tesla Autopilot (1st generation not even the update!) than human driven miles

 

[Velma's Dad]

Train companies are having a difficult time reducing the number of staff on trains from two to one, but the Docklands' Light Railway has been operating autonomously for 30 years, and lifts in buildings for considerably longer than that. In the last 5-10 years drones have really taken off (and landed successfully). The final barrier is road travel, but I'd hate to lay money on it taking another 5 years or 50 years, but I'd happily lay a wager on it taking something between 5 and 50 years for 50% or more of motor vehicles on the road having the ability to drive themselves.

I wouldn't bet with you on that, as I'd see it as a 'racing certainty' in your favour. But I reckon it's much closer to your 5 year point than your 50.

As a "thought experiment": say (a) fully self-driving vehicles are available from 2021; (b) there is a 'legacy ' vehicle fleet equal to 10 years annual sales; (c) on new vehicle sales, share of self-drive rises in 10% increments each year until it reaches 90% (retaining a 10% of conventional sales indefinitely for special cases eg people who still want to drive manually, emergency or other special vehicles, and to allow for classic cars etc); (d) average lifespan of a vehicle is 10 years.

I just did the maths on those assumptions and your 50% self-drive percentage of the total fleet would be reached between 2029 and 2030, that is twelve years from now. It would reach my 90% assumed saturation level by 2037, that is in 20 years' time.

Twenty years is a fairly long time in technological innovations. The railways in Britain were built within that time span. Mobile phones is another example: after a slow ramp-up in the first decade (1987-97), ownership then shot up from 18% to 97% in the next ten years (1997-2007).

 

[Velma's Dad]

Second point is fact - fatalities per mile driven are lower with Tesla Autopilot (1st generation not even the update!) than human driven miles

To be fair the Tesla's use-case is quite limited right now, ie major roads. But there are lots of other trials going on - Google's cars alone have driven 2.5 million miles on various kinds of roads with no fatalities.

Meanwhile, 1.2 million people die on the road each year around the world. That's like a Boeing 737 falling out of the sky every hour. I don't think anyone looking seriously at the autonomous vehicle sector could imagine that the technology will be permitted if it allowed even the tiniest fraction of that carnage.

Sadly, the technology will at first be mainly rolled out in environments that are already fairly safe, simply because it won't be as affordable in the poorer countries that have the highest road accident rates. Hopefully that will change quickly though as maybe Chinese or Indian manufacturers take the tech to scale.

 

[briwy]

First point is a fallacy - your vehicle spends at least 90% of the time not driving, it could be plugged in, even to a three pin domestic plug and have 300 miles range as you leave your drive. If your bladder lasts 300 miles then you're a more advanced human than me!

Second point is fact - fatalities per mile driven are lower with Tesla Autopilot (1st generation not even the update!) than human driven miles

Fallacy, I don't think so. We often drive more than 300 miles and I certainly don't want to stop and wait ages for a recharge assuming I could find one that is where I am and that isn't being used. No my bladder probably doesn't last 300 miles but then again it doesn't take me a few hours to go to the loo either, not yet anyway.
Second point, as I have already said there are not enough of these vehicles on the road to make statements like that. Humans make mistakes but so do computers.

 

[Amarillo]

Second point, as I have already said there are not enough of these vehicles on the road to make statements like that. Humans make mistakes but so do computers.

An interesting point here. Who would be liable in the event of a crash:

• software writer
• vehicle manufacturer
• owner
• passenger
• hirer

I can see a lucrative trade for lawyers to resolve this. And also dubious claims from software writers, "We guarantee that our software will not be the cause of a crash." Try resolving liability from a multiple vehicle pile up on an autonomous section of the M25 between Junction 3 Swanley and Junction 7 M23.

 

[hirsty]

There's a surprising amount of thought already going into it across Insurance, Tech firms, Manufacturers & Legal ...

https://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/insurance2025/

 

[hirsty]

faked, but fun:

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[johnyboy]

but then again it doesn't take me a few hours to go to the loo either, not yet anyway.

35mins 80% charge have a cuppa

 

[T6 CFO]

Fairly simple to answer the OP question now.
Electric:- Cali as I need it now. Even 5 years time is no good to me.
Self driving. Cali as I need it now and 10 years + definitely to long.

Mike

 

[Velma's Dad]

There's a surprising amount of thought already going into it across Insurance, Tech firms, Manufacturers & Legal ...

https://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/insurance2025/

I know very little about the insurance industry but I'm sure they've been all over this for years. The motor insurers will be pretty terrified about their business model.

I gather Volvo, Google and Mercedes plan to accept all liabilities for their cars when they're in fully autonomous mode, and I'd bet the others will end up following suit.

The manufacturers can off course offset some of that risk through reinsurance but in the long term I'd expect the annual payouts by the car industry to be very small per unit, compared to the costs of insuring us human drivers (an outlay which we would then avoid if we agree not to drive ourselves, enhancing the economic case for a self-driving car - but decimating the traditional car insurance industry, who meanwhile will do all they possibly can to scare consumers about the risks of self-drive cars).

 

[Amarillo]

I gather Volvo, Google and Mercedes plan to accept all liabilities for their cars when they're in fully autonomous mode, and I'd bet the others will end up following suit.

Absurd.

OK - fake I know, but how can they accept liability for their car driving into that!?

 

[Velma's Dad]

Absurd.

OK - fake I know, but how can they accept liability for their car driving into that!?

Ha ha. But seriously, I assume there will be the usual insurance-like cop-outs like fire, flood, war etc.

I'm also assuming they won't accept liability if the car is, for example, rear-ended by a human driver, Just like your insurance wouldn't accept liability if Velma rear-ended Amarillo.

One self-drive vehicle rear-ending another self-driving vehicle simply won't arise, unless the brakes fail or something like that which could happen but will be so vanishingly rare that it can be ignored for business planning purposes.

 

[Amarillo]

Just like your insurance wouldn't accept liability if Velma rear-ended Amarillo.

Amarillo is now called The Mustard Pot. Rear ending a mustard pot is not recommended.