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EU Referendum - 23rd June - How will you vote?

EU Referendum

  • Stay in the EU

    Votes: 90 51.4%

  • Leave the EU

    Votes: 85 48.6%
  • Total voters
    175
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
I understand what you mean Mike - I think that aside from it being a very nuanced decision with lots of pros and cons we're just not used to the differences between an election and a referendum. We're not voting for a Party or an MP or a Prime Minister this time & "the media" just loves a personality contest.

If it can be dumbed down to an X Factor type vote then they're all over it, I think that's why we're barraged with a daily update on who's said what. Above all they've got pages to fill between adverts every day & reader retention is best served by reinforcing the views already held by their target demographic.

The trick for me is surely to pick through this (mostly) nonsense for & against and come up with a personal decision - there's as much garbage coming from both sides, and it's a shame that there has to be 'sides' on something this important for all of us.

Nobody can surely be 100% one way or another here - I don't think anyone can honestly say that everything about staying-in is bad, or that everything about leaving would be bad. I'm reluctant to quote another newspaper column, but the Simon Jenkins opinion piece here most closely represents what I now think - he acknowledges the shortcomings of both sides of the debate presented so far for me:

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...nance-remain-eu-referendum-britain-votes-stay
 
On the Euro single-currency, no, I'm not in favour of the UK being part of the Euro. I was initially in favour in the 90's when it seemed like an attractive idea for ease of trade, travel & collective benefit, but shortly afterwards I changed my mind. Possibly the only time I've agreed with Gordon Brown.

At the time it got started in the short-term there seemed to me to be too much disparity between the economies of the enlarged EU, and a single currency felt like too much of a blunt instrument for one size fits all across 28. With the benefit of hindsight there was even then already too much variance even between the earlier EEC countries (eg: Italy & Spain).

In the longer term & if everyone could magically be brought up to the same level then I still don't think it's a completely bad idea. I guess now that short-term may have meant 30-years though, and longer-term might still be 150 ...
 
Crispin Family said:
Fearful might be a better description: fearful that the overwhelming majority will suffer because of a British utopia dreamed about by a slim majority.
Click to expand...
Sorry but you cannot Agree with the Democratic process when it goes your way and Disagree when it does not.
 
hirsty said:
I understand what you mean Mike - I think that aside from it being a very nuanced decision with lots of pros and cons we're just not used to the differences between an election and a referendum. We're not voting for a Party or an MP or a Prime Minister this time & "the media" just loves a personality contest.

If it can be dumbed down to an X Factor type vote then they're all over it, I think that's why we're barraged with a daily update on who's said what. Above all they've got pages to fill between adverts every day & reader retention is best served by reinforcing the views already held by their target demographic.

The trick for me is surely to pick through this (mostly) nonsense for & against and come up with a personal decision - there's as much garbage coming from both sides, and it's a shame that there has to be 'sides' on something this important for all of us.

Nobody can surely be 100% one way or another here - I don't think anyone can honestly say that everything about staying-in is bad, or that everything about leaving would be bad. I'm reluctant to quote another newspaper column, but the Simon Jenkins opinion piece here most closely represents what I now think - he acknowledges the shortcomings of both sides of the debate presented so far for me:

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...nance-remain-eu-referendum-britain-votes-stay
Click to expand...
That Hirsty is a good measured article and recognises the reality of the situation we find ourselves in.

It is an article laying out the basic issues and accepting how difficult the decision is.

I don't entirely agree with the conclusion as I feel that without change the threat from the Right across Europe will grow due to the pressures caused by the single currency and its implications on economic migration.
This is an awful medium for trying to discuss these issues

The Euro experiment has caused untold damage and does effect us and especially low paid workers. Yes we have some lazy people who wouldn't do these jobs but it is all to easy to blame them and the issue is far more complex.

I believe it is now not seriously argued that the single currency is a disaster. It has prevented countries from floating, caused unemployment and rightly those unemployed have sought a solution by moving to more prosperous areas. This is a good thing when controlled but causes significant problems to the low paid in those countries whilst at the same time providing cheap labour to companies. It is that benefit that makes me question the opinions of the entitled who are happy at the top of the tree with their well educated nannies, gardeners crop pickers, waiters etc and the nice lifestyle and profits this gives them.

As for these migrants, they tend to be the better educated and more motivated and many are doing menial jobs and living in poor accommodation. Many are just fodder feeding our lifestyle, serving us and yes looking after our old. It's not right, a better way needs to be found. It's not good for their own countries where the talent is being sucked out and their children leaving. With floating currencies the pendulum would swing back but not in a single currency. We are not in it but we are open to its effects. If this would be recognised and remedies sought I would consider remain. I fear not though as the elite know a better way and that way is ever increasing Union. It will fail and we will hopefully be in a stronger position to help by being out.
 
The Euro was always doomed.

You cannot control currency union without a degree of political union, or, in the case of Greece and to a lesser extent Italy, authoritarian dictat from the centre.

There are now three Europe's, those in the currency and quasi political union, those like the UK with a negotiated opt out and those with no opt out but not yet ready to join such as some of the former soviet countries..

For me if there is one factor that propels me to the exit door, from being an otherwise committed remainer, it is the inevitable move to political union within the eurogroup despite the citizens of both France and the Netherlands rejecting conclusively any such move. The can cannot forever be kicked down the road. Sooner or later the citizens of those two countries are going to react against something being implemented that was so democratically rejected.

Do I want to be in a disintegrating Europe or, out but an otherwise embroiled bystander unable to influence events that are inevitably going to influence us?
 
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There's a lot going on in the world right now, and all at the same time too - I can equally understand people taking either extreme positions at either end, or being apathetic feeling disconnected and powerless to change anything - this is maybe where the 'take back control' theme comes from, I don't know.

I feel that a lot of people will now vote Leave as a consequence of this broader wave, to feel like they're "doing something". That's not to belittle anyones viewpoint or their equal vote, but to me it's lashing out at the wrong target, but for once everyone gets an equal say this time.

In only the last few years we've collectively lost faith in so many cornerstones with one scandal after another coming to light & many of them cross-linked (BBC, MPs, Churches, Newspapers, Banks, Police, Monarchy, Food, EU / Euro, Big Business inc. VW!) there's not much left untainted in our daily lives, it's understandable people demand change - a lot of otherwise inexplicable phenomena have surely come out it. Exhibit A being Trump ...

I don't vote along party lines & am genuinely conflicted on the EU. Whilst I've been thinking about it recently I've realised I've drifted leftwards since the 2008 crash - whilst watching all of these Muppets on the TV I just keep thinking that they'll be alright Jack either way, post-crash austerity has barely dented the one-percenters whilst everyone else is still picking up the pieces. Phillip Green shrugging off his responsibility for 11,000 BHS workers being a prime example yesterday (bonus 2nd Guardian link today):

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ip-green-bhs-tycoon-tax-parliamentary-inquiry
 
Interesting as I to have drifted left in my views. Conventional wisdom assumes we are supposed to be moving in the other direction.

I have been following the BHS Phillip Green debacle and yes it is representative.



Mike
 
I think there is a simpler cause for the Brexit response.

Peoples across the democratic world are sick to death of mealy-mouthed, question-avoiding, ducking and diving professional politicians who put self and party interest before the national one.

How can I believe the arguments spouted by a politician who cynically puts the national interest to one side in order to favour "the party candidate" for the London Mayoral election?

How can I believe the former London mayor who so often spouted the successes of the nation's capital as a leading service industry provider when he now, simply for his own political ambition, espouses policies likely in many ways to do great harm to that standing?

How can I believe a government that now stands ready to renege on Leveson, whilst the press barons they so protect, tax-avoiding ex pats or Australian turned American holding parliament in contempt, spew implausible, hysterical and misleading propaganda at an electorate voting on this nation's very future?

In part We are seeing with Brexit the same phenomenon as that propelling Trump in the US, the desire by an electorate to give the established political class a kick where it hurts. Sadly in doing so that kick may hurt us all but hey-ho, we live in a democracy, thank Goodness, and I'm terribly sorry Messrs Cameron and Osborne, but that means rejecting your arrogant, condescending attempt at intimidation by telling us all that unless we believe you then economic terror is what awaits us all, excepting a few like Phillip Green.

For me the hardest part of deciding how to vote has been putting my contempt for our political ruling class to one side and try to think the arguments through rationally. It has been an interesting process and whatever I vote it will be a personal marginal decision.
 
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T6 CFO said:
Do you agree with the Euro?
Click to expand...

I do not understand the sense in which you ask that question. Here are some matters related to the Euro with which I agree:
  • I agree that the Euro exists.
  • I agree that sovereign nations within the EU had a choice in 1999 to join the Euro if certain fiscal conditions were met.
  • I agree that Britain, Denmark and Sweden are EU members not in the Euro.
  • I agree that membership of the Euro has caused financial distress to some EU nations, particularly Greece and Portugal, but also to Ireland, France, Spain and Italy.
  • I agree that the Euro makes it easier for me to travel between countries in the Eurozone.
  • I agree that London is the most important city for the clearing and settlement of euro-transacted deals.
  • I agree with the European Court ruling against the European Central Bank who wanted to ban the clearing and settlement of euro-transacted deals in the UK.
  • I agree that if we choose to leave the EU the European Court may review its decision.
  • I agree that the forthcoming referendum on Britain's membership of the EU is not a vote on the competency or otherwise of the European Central Bank's management of the Euro.
I hope that helps you to understand my position on the Euro, for what it's worth.
 
Crispin Family said:
I do not understand the sense in which you ask that question. Here are some matters related to the Euro with which I agree:
  • I agree that the Euro exists.
  • I agree that sovereign nations within the EU had a choice in 1999 to join the Euro if certain fiscal conditions were met.
  • I agree that Britain, Denmark and Sweden are EU members not in the Euro.
  • I agree that membership of the Euro has caused financial distress to some EU nations, particularly Greece and Portugal, but also to Ireland, France, Spain and Italy.
  • I agree that the Euro makes it easier for me to travel between countries in the Eurozone.
  • I agree that London is the most important city for the clearing and settlement of euro-transacted deals.
  • I agree with the European Court ruling against the European Central Bank who wanted to ban the clearing and settlement of euro-transacted deals in the UK.
  • I agree that if we choose to leave the EU the European Court may review its decision.
  • I agree that the forthcoming referendum on Britain's membership of the EU is not a vote on the competency or otherwise of the European Central Bank's management of the Euro.
I hope that helps you to understand my position on the Euro, for what it's worth.
Click to expand...
Have a look at posts since this question. The discussion has moved on and the importance of the Euro discussed.


Mike
 
GrannyJen said:
For me if there is one factor that propels me to the exit door, from being an otherwise a committed remainer, it is the inevitable move to political union within the eurogroup despite the citizens of both France and the Netherlands rejecting conclusively any such move.
Click to expand...

I'm not so sure about that premise GJ, if you mean that the conveyor belt towards political union will just roll along. I think there's a broader and much more uncertain range of possible futures for the European project. Events since 2008 might have been expected to have propelled at least the eurozone countries to some kind of realpolitik join-up, but if it hasn't. So when is it going to, and what will it look like? And how will we (if we remain) be affected by each of these different possible outcomes? And indeed, how will the UK's actions affect those outcomes?

I am pretty clear, by the way, that the euro is so fundamentally flawed that something has to give pretty soon (if you're not so convinced, I'd recommend reading Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek former finance minister turned 'rock star economist') but what will that give rise to? Yanis's prediction of a fracturing along the Rhine into a core-euro (read: deutschmark) zone, with the southern states, maybe led by the Italians, taking a different road? There are just so many plausible scenarios which have a constellation of implications for the UK (as a member of... well what exactly? Are we voting to stay in EEA, EFTA, or what?).

Even if we're able to ignore the politicians and campaigners and try to stick to our own analysis, this for me remains the biggest problem of the referendum: its timing. It's too early in the course of events, I believe, to be able to divine what kind of animal the EU is going to look like next. Maybe the plates still won't have stopped shifting in five or ten years from now, but it surely couldn't be less clearer then than it is right now.

That's okay of course if you're a Brexiter by dint of your views on sovereignty fundamentals, controls of immigration or whatever, as you just want out in any case, fair enough. But if you want to place your bet based on what a future Europe will look like economically and politically, because you see both opportunities and pitfalls for the UK, I think it's far too soon to tell. Why do we need to make the call now?

Unfortunately though, we can't say "Stay, For Now" because a repeat referendum in 'our lifetime' seems unlikely as the political risks for whoever calls one are massive - as Cameron is likely to see.

So we all have to make our personal call next week. Given the impenetrable fog of future events on the continent, that means I can only decide based on things that I believe I can reasonably predict, including the strong possibility (no more than that, I think) of a Leave vote creating at least a timing delay in economic investment, and the quite high likelihood of it triggering a second Scottish referendum. I hate being forced to make a decision on such short term factors.

I wish there was a third box on the ballot: "Go away and maybe ask me again in a few years when we've all got a better idea of what's going to happen in Brussels and Berlin and Rome and Ankara."
 
T6 CFO said:
I have tried very hard to get to the point where issues can be discussed.
Click to expand...
Mike. What are the issues for you as a possible out voter? If I may, I'll add mine and let's make a simple list together, ok? i feel fairly confortable that there is a compelling argument for to remain in the EU at every single level and I'm happy to discuss these points objectively with you as long as we agree no personal attacks, no celebrity trump cards and no invoking of Godwin's law. Fair enough?
 
fred said:
Mike. What are the issues for you as a possible out voter? If I may, I'll add mine and let's make a simple list together, ok? i feel fairly confortable that there is a compelling argument for to remain in the EU at every single level and I'm happy to discuss these points objectively with you as long as we agree no personal attacks, no celebrity trump cards and no invoking of Godwin's law. Fair enough?
Click to expand...
Fred have a read of post 580 from me which just about covers it. It's not a case of just having a list. The issues are complex and related. There has been some good debate on here today and it should be clear to you what I feel and why if you read this post.




Mike
 
After a series of personal attacks from some members of the board I've had to put some members on ignore. So your post 580 isn't the same as my post 580
 
Velma's Dad said:
I'm not so sure about that premise GJ, if you mean that the conveyor belt towards political union will just roll along. I think there's a broader and much more uncertain range of possible futures for the European project. Events since 2008 might have been expected to have propelled at least the eurozone countries to some kind of realpolitik join-up, but if it hasn't. So when is it going to, and what will it look like? And how will we (if we remain) be affected by each of these different possible outcomes? And indeed, how will the UK's actions affect those outcomes?

I am pretty clear, by the way, that the euro is so fundamentally flawed that something has to give pretty soon (if you're not so convinced, I'd recommend reading Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek former finance minister turned 'rock star economist') but what will that give rise to? Yanis's prediction of a fracturing along the Rhine into a core-euro (read: deutschmark) zone, with the southern states, maybe led by the Italians, taking a different road? There are just so many plausible scenarios which have a constellation of implications for the UK (as a member of... well what exactly? Are we voting to stay in EEA, EFTA, or what?).

Even if we're able to ignore the politicians and campaigners and try to stick to our own analysis, this for me remains the biggest problem of the referendum: its timing. It's too early in the course of events, I believe, to be able to divine what kind of animal the EU is going to look like next. Maybe the plates still won't have stopped shifting in five or ten years from now, but it surely couldn't be less clearer then than it is right now.

That's okay of course if you're a Brexiter by dint of your views on sovereignty fundamentals, controls of immigration or whatever, as you just want out in any case, fair enough. But if you want to place your bet based on what a future Europe will look like economically and politically, because you see both opportunities and pitfalls for the UK, I think it's far too soon to tell. Why do we need to make the call now?

Unfortunately though, we can't say "Stay, For Now" because a repeat referendum in 'our lifetime' seems unlikely as the political risks for whoever calls one are massive - as Cameron is likely to see.

So we all have to make our personal call next week. Given the impenetrable fog of future events on the continent, that means I can only decide based on things that I believe I can reasonably predict, including the strong possibility (no more than that, I think) of a Leave vote creating at least a timing delay in economic investment, and the quite high likelihood of it triggering a second Scottish referendum. I hate being forced to make a decision on such short term factors.

I wish there was a third box on the ballot: "Go away and maybe ask me again in a few years when we've all got a better idea of what's going to happen in Brussels and Berlin and Rome and Ankara."
Click to expand...

I quite like the timing of this referendum.

There are no easy answers. There is no convincing case. The imponderables outnumber the facts.

No party politics, quiet Corbyn, frothing Farage, Michael Gove doing a good impression of a clueless Michael Gove, Boris raising buffoonery to an art form, I think that bloke who leads the liberals might have said something once but I must have missed it, IDS fading into the woodwork (if he ever came out of it), Kim Jong Osborne forecasting apocalypse whist dynamic Dave waffles,

Angela and Francois looking gloomier by the minute, which fills me full of joy, in the meantime cries of "Remember Sevastopol" echoing around the Squares of Marseilles and Lille.

and no one really has a clue, except Mark Carney who Jacob Rees Mogg tried to rubbish in quite shameful fashion.

Brilliant. John Cleese could not have directed it better.
 
fred said:
After a series of personal attacks from some members of the board I've had to put some members on ignore. So your post 580 isn't the same as my post 580
Click to expand...
It was 5hrs ago and in response to an excellent post by Hirsty


Mike
 
GrannyJen said:
I quite like the timing of this referendum.

There are no easy answers. There is no convincing case. The imponderables outnumber the facts.

No party politics, quiet Corbyn, frothing Farage, Michael Gove doing a good impression of a clueless Michael Gove, Boris raising buffoonery to an art form, I think that bloke who leads the liberals might have said something once but I must have missed it, IDS fading into the woodwork (if he ever came out of it), Kim Jong Osborne forecasting apocalypse whist dynamic Dave waffles,

Angela and Francois looking gloomier by the minute, which fills me full of joy, in the meantime cries of "Remember Sevastopol" echoing around the Squares of Marseilles and Lille.

and no one really has a clue, except Mark Carney who Jacob Rees Mogg tried to rubbish in quite shameful fashion.

Brilliant. John Cleese could not have directed it better.
Click to expand...

Ministry of silly walks

https://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/v...&sigb=12hfoiqop&sigt=10nmbfike&sigi=12bqvn9va
 
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Maybe time to close this thread. The points have been made.
 
GrannyJen said:
I hear all the "back to"....

The only "back to" I remember is bankrupt Britain. All my life until around 1984 Britain was bankrupt.

We applied to join the EC in 1961 (?) but heard the French say "Non". By the skin of our teeth we avoided being drawn into the Vietnam war, blackmailed by our unpaid war debt to the USA, and resisted only with the threat of closing Mildenhall and Fylingdale BMEWS.

I remember vividly Ted Heath switching the lights off because of our dependence on oil. hostage to Arab regimes who are as far removed from democracy as Genghis Khan was from world peace.

Trying to bring up two children up with inflation raging at 25% , as 2/3rds of the population voted to stay in the EC as the only hope for Bankrupt Britain, but even despite that vote 4 years later we were to suffer the national humiliation of Jim Callaghan and Dennis Healey going cap in hand to the IMF so that we could continue to pay pensions to the elderly and provide care for the sick.

Dark days in stark contrast to the prosperity and security that we have today.

So, please, no one say to me, "Give me my country back, let's return to where we were". Where we were was bankrupt, blackmailed by our friends the Americans, held hostage by some of the most authoritarian regimes on earth, taxed to death. in constant conflict between it's citizens and mortgaged to the IMF.

This is from a floating voter btw.
Click to expand...

I remember our mortgage interest rate was 15% in the seventies and on a 3 day week. So no, I don't want to go back to the way we were either.

Alan
 
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