Is supply now outstripping demand?

[Borris]

A few months ago, you'd be lucky to find a dozen used Calis on VW's Commercial web site. I have just looked and there are currently more than seventy advertised!

Do we now have a buyers market? If they have that many Calis up for sale there must at least be the potential for some great discounts for those interested in buying now. Why are there suddenly that many available?

 

[Meoncoast]

end of summer always seem more avalible

 

[Borris]

end of summer always seem more avalible

I agree but I have never seen that many for sale on that site. Also a substantial number of them are effectively new vehicles.

 

[larrylamb]

Scary prices on so many of them. Listers seem very expensive. They have an Ocean 150DSG on sale at £66K! Perhaps the factory has caught up after initially very high demand. Prices for a lot of these Calis in stock seem higher than the configurator prices. @GrannyJen has noticed this as well.

 

[Laura Hill]

I think it could be a combination of several factors, including

1. VED changes earlier this year prompting several to purchase sooner than they might have done. The higher rate VED will also impact some purchases.

2. The pricing strategy.

3. The poor attitude of some dealers (e.g. we were quoted list price and told to forget any chance of a discount at all as 'customers were queuing up to purchase').

4. Brexit! I'm sure some will disagree, but from our perspective (and I voted remain although OH leave), the rhetoric coming from some European ‘politicians’ means we have been in a state of flip-flopping between “yes, let’s buy” to “never buying any German manufactured vehicle again”.

5. The VW diesel emissions cheating scandal and the resultant problematic 'fixes'.

6. The appalling attitude of VW customer services (we have experience from the purchase of previous VW group cars).

7. The current backlash against diesel vehicles.

3, 4, 5 and 6 have had a big impact on our decisions over the last year, with #7 meaning we have some slight concerns whether such a large investment right now is the correct course to take.

Do I think we will get a California? I would like to think yes, but … if there was an acceptable Far East / USA / UK variant then we would go that route.

It does however seem to me that the market is switching more to a buyers than a sellers market – so good luck to those dealers that were both rude, off-hand and refused to offer any negotiation when we visited earlier this year (I won’t name them because the salesmen may well have moved on to tarnish other companies).

 

[soulstyledevon]

Yes, I agree with a lot of the above.
We have been pondering a lot about changing ours. But a few doubts stick in my mind.
1 - VED is a serious concern. Why would I want to pay more tax for a vehicle which will be very similar to what I already own.
2 - Brexit uncertainty. Do I want to invest in what I would call a luxury item at this moment in time. It's better to have the safety net in case things really take a turn for the worst.
3 - Volkswagens customer service and the fact roof corrosion still isn't sorted is putting me off.
4 - T6 isn't much of an upgrade to my current T5.1. My current Cali is reliable, so maybe stick with it.
5 - VW is German and with all the goings on right now, perhaps a replacement vehicle should come from these shores. I think going forward I will be looking to buy cars manufactured here such as from JLR.

 

[GrannyJen]

Yes, I agree with a lot of the above.
We have been pondering a lot about changing ours. But a few doubts stick in my mind.
1 - VED is a serious concern. Why would I want to pay more tax for a vehicle which will be very similar to what I already own.
2 - Brexit uncertainty. Do I want to invest in what I would call a luxury item at this moment in time. It's better to have the safety net in case things really take a turn for the worst.
3 - Volkswagens customer service and the fact roof corrosion still isn't sorted is putting me off.
4 - T6 isn't much of an upgrade to my current T5.1. My current Cali is reliable, so maybe stick with it.
5 - VW is German and with all the goings on right now, perhaps a replacement vehicle should come from these shores. I think going forward I will be looking to buy cars manufactured here such as from JLR.

Agree with it all.

I am looking now to replace but when is still an open question.

Yes I want another Cali, for me a better choice in the factory made camper market: buying a conversion though could mean it slips under the VED threshold and it does mean half of it at least is made here but not the one stop shopping that I want and quite frankly the Cali beats everything that I have seen.

VW customer service is appalling and I just hate the thought of buying another one off them but so I'm told the competition is no better.

Now I have just bought a Caravan to partner my Cali I must just take a step back and have a rethink, although buyers market or not the trade-in that has been suggested to me for Albert is silly money and I'm tempted to take the money now rather than have uncertainty into the future.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Yes I know where you are coming from.
Having gone down the conversion route many times before, I do prefer the hard wearing plastics of the California interior over carpet on the walls.
Never thought about VED with regards to buying a van and converting. I guess that is a good way to avoid the higher road tax costs.
Plus roof corrosion is another bullet I would like to dodge.

I still love my Cali and nothing else compares.
It's a tough decision.

In the back of my mind, I think stick with what I've got and keep piling the miles on until she's had enough...???

 

[motacyclist]

Now I have just bought a Caravan to partner my Cali I must just take a step back and have a rethink, although buyers market or not the trade-in that has been suggested to me for Albert is silly money and I'm tempted to take the money now rather than have uncertainty into the future.

Do you mean silly high or silly low? Tend to think it will the latter, but hopefully you will prove me wrong!

 

[Annik]

I really don't think VED would affect sales, if you can afford a brand new California you can afford the increased VED.

 

[Ocean Spirit]

I really don't think VED would affect sales, if you can afford a brand new California you can afford the increased VED.

I don't know about that.
It's a tough call. I have talked my way up from an older used Cali to new and that is do-able but the VED is definitely a big factor holding me back right now. Based largely on the fact I can spend less on a Cali and not throw so much money away every 12 months just because of when it was registered. It's a very frustrating thing to be interfering with my decision making. But point being every buyer has a different threshold.

 

[GrannyJen]

Do you mean silly high or silly low? Tend to think it will the latter, but hopefully you will prove me wrong!

Keep the faith...

Silly high.

In four years of the most outrageous pleasure Albert would have cost me in depreciation £3,000 per year. On a totally subjective basis, based on nights away, he would have saved me £5,000 per year. In relation to the car I would have kept had I not traded it in for an Albert the depreciation on that car would have far exceeded £3,000 per year.

In terms of that silly intangible, quality of life, Albert has been priceless.

 

[calicasas]

Yes, I agree with a lot of the above.
We have been pondering a lot about changing ours. But a few doubts stick in my mind.
1 - VED is a serious concern. Why would I want to pay more tax for a vehicle which will be very similar to what I already own.
2 - Brexit uncertainty. Do I want to invest in what I would call a luxury item at this moment in time. It's better to have the safety net in case things really take a turn for the worst.
3 - Volkswagens customer service and the fact roof corrosion still isn't sorted is putting me off.
4 - T6 isn't much of an upgrade to my current T5.1. My current Cali is reliable, so maybe stick with it.
5 - VW is German and with all the goings on right now, perhaps a replacement vehicle should come from these shores. I think going forward I will be looking to buy cars manufactured here such as from JLR.

Totally agree with the above. I was planning on a new camper, but certainly not a VW because of the unresolved issues surrounding oil consumption on some engines... (Mine has done only 30k from new!!), roof corrosion etc.. Brexit is another main reason - we should hold onto our money as we will very likely be in recession or close to it in the near future... We are far enough away from the last recession for people to have forgotten...

 

[CampervanTime]

The VED thing is a pain, yes, but I'm not going to let the government influence what I want to do if I can at all help it. Yes I might have to pay more tax but that's just life.

 

[ChrisB]

I have just bought a new T6 Ocean 150 DSG 4 motion with tow bar and some other bits & bobs. Drive away price including taxes at 31% was 62500 euros (£55300 at current exchange rates). I recently saw a late 2015 model T5 SE 140 DSG 2WD with 3000kms on the clock for 56500 euros + transfer taxes at 4%. (It did have a bike rack and a few other extras) Out here, the T5 140's seem to hold their prices a bit better than the 180's. They were offering immediate delivery and it sold within a couple of weeks. Based upon projected usage and savings on regular fly/ drive visits to the UK, I have calculated that the new Cali will prove it's value to us within 10 years.

 

[RodCouncil]

140s are a rarer beast and easily tuneable, I mitigated as much as I could against the above points which I agree with, Swedish government is much more aggressive on diesels or diesels that are motorhomes and it's set to get worse so UK VED is actually ok in comparison.

 

[Hotel California]

Can't comment on VED as not aware .

My thoughts (mainland vison that is)

yes end of summer and some selling recent verhicles after the renting season.

New stock in showroom needs clearance , even for some dealers it's a lot of money just sitting there ....

2nd hand still seems popular

But however even i was close to swapping to a 6-er Coast petrolversion IF i could have sold mine at a reasonable (high) price as you see them advertised i still needed 15.000€ on top witch is a lot to get a Cali witch would bring me to thesame places mine does now .
Ok in time you start new and have new warrenty and get a Coast petrol,....etc
But i waited , maybe in the future i might look in to it again.

 

[ChrisB]

Can't comment on VED as not aware .

My thoughts (mainland vison that is)

yes end of summer and some selling recent verhicles after the renting season.

New stock in showroom needs clearance , even for some dealers it's a lot of money just sitting there ....

2nd hand still seems popular

But however even i was close to swapping to a 6-er Coast petrolversion IF i could have sold mine at a reasonable (high) price as you see them advertised i still needed 15.000€ on top witch is a lot to get a Cali witch would bring me to thesame places mine does now .
Ok in time you start new and have new warrenty and get a Coast petrol,....etc
But i waited , maybe in the future i might look in to it again.

A lot of Spanish dealers have trade contacts with Germany and import second hand vehicles directly to sell on in Spain. A dealer in Madrid does this in the spring, but like I said in my post, the prices are high. I preferred to wait the extra few months and buy new.

 

[MattBW]

5 - VW is German and with all the goings on right now, perhaps a replacement vehicle should come from these shores. I think going forward I will be looking to buy cars manufactured here such as from JLR.

Yeah you may want to wait until JLR sort out their awful quality issues that are very common right now.

 

[Jay586]

Yeah you may want to wait until JLR sort out their awful quality issues that are very common right now.

I was very tempted by a Disco Sport, when looking for my new vehicle. Their fora are equally interesting. The first generation Sports, some of them were being recalled for additional spot welding to ensure the roof was connected!

 

[Ryemslie]

As I'm still looking to buy I've been asking the same question as it appears to me that there is more than just the end of summer pushing the prices towards a buyers market. I myself am noticing the squeeze due to inflation, driven a lot by brexit. The scaremongering on used diesel valuations will not be helping either, already down 9% this year apparently. The fact that governments ATM look likely only to target diesels further towards their 2020 proposed bans is also making me wonder about the Californias usability in terms of an all in one vehicle to drive into any major city within Europe etc as the stigma attached to "dirty diesels" by then could be poisonous itself.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Yeah you may want to wait until JLR sort out their awful quality issues that are very common right now.

I hear what your saying. However i would be looking into leasing as i don't want to own another vehicle. Potentially 3 year, give it back at the end. Not sure how it all works as i never leased before.
We have 2 vehicles already including Cali which we plan on keeping and possibly a third as the everyday mule.
JLR aren't perfect, but the competition isn't exactly spot on in my opinion...

 

[Digger]

The reality is no one knows the long term future. Recognising that the greenhouse gas CO2 will continue to be restricted and taxed also seriously damns the petrol versions with their high output of pollutants.
It is down to the individual to decide on purchase to get the lifestyle and freedom whilst they may or sit back and let the good times pass.
Wait for electric if you want but it will be a long term if ever.

 

[Ocean Spirit]

Yeah you may want to wait until JLR sort out their awful quality issues that are very common right now.

That is certainly a fact that rivals what I have been reading on this forum regards VW aftersales and quality.
I am coming from JLR though and never experienced any of the horror stories (touch wood) that I read about. So all in all manufacturer to manufacturer, I think theres not much in it.

 

[Harrythecat]

Keep the faith...

Silly high.

In four years of the most outrageous pleasure Albert would have cost me in depreciation £3,000 per year. On a totally subjective basis, based on nights away, he would have saved me £5,000 per year. In relation to the car I would have kept had I not traded it in for an Albert the depreciation on that car would have far exceeded £3,000 per year.

In terms of that silly intangible, quality of life, Albert has been priceless.

What that lady says! We've had ours five years and it's depreciation is far less than a comparable car. It's been a commuter car, a run about, a skip, and a mobile home.

A good friend of ours has a 20 year old VW camper that would still fetch a decent price with a bit of TLC despite its mileage. Just don't look at them the same way as you would look at a car. It's not all about trade in and resale value.