Norway is shutting down

[Lightning]

It may not be voluntary...

As the UK death toll reached 35 on Sunday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said over-70s could be told to stay home for up to four months within the ‘coming weeks’. Under the Health Protection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020, which were passed last month, a person who is required to be kept in isolation can be taken there by a constable, with the use of ‘reasonable force, if necessary’. Failure to comply with restrictions, or absconding from isolation, is punishable with a fine of up to £1,000.


Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/peop...trict-coronavirus-rules-12402879/?ito=cbshare

Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/

 

[Velma's Dad]

I appreciate your situation.
Making light of something as serious as this is dangerous, however, because it spurs others to do the same and ignore reality in favor of self-delusion.
The herd immunity "plan" is a recipe for disaster.
It all but ensures the collapse of your NHS. A contagion left to run rampant the way Covid-19 has demonstrated it can-and will-leads to catastrophic overburdening of the healthcare system, as has been demonstrated in Italy where doctors have had to choose to let older people die in favor of treating younger people. Not by choice, but by necessity driven by lack of resources.
For your sake, I hope your "government" comes to its senses, although I fear it's already too late.

I've no expertise in public health or disease control but, I'm sorry, the above appears to me to be utter twaddle.

There is no "herd immunity plan" as you put it. The UK Government's current approach involves attempting to "flatten the curve" of the outbreak using various measures, so that at any point there is enough critical care capacity in the health system to cope with the numbers of critical cases presenting, while also preserving human resource availability in the NHS for the same reason. That is the reason for the decision not to close schools at present (it probably will be done at the peak of the outbreak) because closing schools is assessed to have little impact on disease transmission but is very likely to have perverse consequences of increasing exposure of vulnerable older people (grandparents) and also would tie up healthcare and other essential workers caring for children.

Talking about a "contagion running rampant" suggests that you think Covid-19 can be stopped. The UK authorities believe it cannot be, but that it is possible to modify the epi-curve so that that the peak demand on critical care resources is smoothed as far as possible.

Other countries are taking different approaches, possibly because their national factors are different. Who is right and who is wrong will only become discernible in retrospect.

 

[Maskweech]

I've no expertise in public health or disease control but, I'm sorry, the above appears to me to be utter twaddle.

There is no "herd immunity plan" as you put it. The UK Government's current approach involves attempting to "flatten the curve" of the outbreak using various measures, so that at any point there is enough critical care capacity in the health system to cope with the numbers of critical cases presenting, while also preserving human resource availability in the NHS for the same reason. That is the reason for the decision not to close schools at present (it probably will be done at the peak of the outbreak) because closing schools is assessed to have little impact on disease transmission but is very likely to have perverse consequences of increasing exposure of vulnerable older people (grandparents) and also would tie up healthcare and other essential workers caring for children.

Talking about a "contagion running rampant" suggests that you think Covid-19 can be stopped. The UK authorities believe it cannot be, but that it is possible to modify the epi-curve so that that the peak demand on critical care resources is smoothed as far as possible.

Other countries are taking different approaches, possibly because their national factors are different. Who is right and who is wrong will only become discernible in retrospect.

Fine, perhaps you will believe the following:

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire | William Hanage

Vulnerable people should not be exposed to Covid-19 right now in the service of a hypothetical future, says William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard

www.google.com

 

[Joker 1299]

I appreciate your situation.
Making light of something as serious as this is dangerous, however, because it spurs others to do the same and ignore reality in favor of self-delusion.
The herd immunity "plan" is a recipe for disaster.
It all but ensures the collapse of your NHS. A contagion left to run rampant the way Covid-19 has demonstrated it can-and will-leads to catastrophic overburdening of the healthcare system, as has been demonstrated in Italy where doctors have had to choose to let older people die in favor of treating younger people. Not by choice, but by necessity driven by lack of resources.
For your sake, I hope your "government" comes to its senses, although I fear it's already too late.

Spanish ‘government’ got it right did they? Chill out. What will be will be.

 

[GrannyJen]

It may not be voluntary...

As the UK death toll reached 35 on Sunday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said over-70s could be told to stay home for up to four months within the ‘coming weeks’. Under the Health Protection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020, which were passed last month, a person who is required to be kept in isolation can be taken there by a constable, with the use of ‘reasonable force, if necessary’. Failure to comply with restrictions, or absconding from isolation, is punishable with a fine of up to £1,000.


Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/peop...trict-coronavirus-rules-12402879/?ito=cbshare

Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/

I appreciate it will be involuntary.

I also appreciate I have a responsibility towards others to do exactly as advised by those who I have to trust to be empowered with all the facts and with all the science.

 

[Lightning]

I appreciate it will be involuntary.

I also appreciate I have a responsibility towards others to do exactly as advised by those who I have to trust to be empowered with all the facts and with all the science.

On the radio, it sounds like you could still go out for a run or walk the dog alone, but not go to bingo or the cinema, so it may not be too restrictive if this is the case.

 

[Joker 1299]

On the radio, it sounds like you could still go out for a run or walk the dog alone, but not go to bingo or the cinema, so it may not be too restrictive if this is the case.

That’s ok, my dogs don’t like bingo.

 

[Maskweech]

Spanish ‘government’ got it right did they? Chill out. What will be will be.

The Spanish government waited far too long, I'm afraid.
It is asinine to make this about national identity, but methinks you can't help yourself.
Go ahead, stick your head in the sand and get your ass kicked.
Don't say you weren't warned.

 

[GrannyJen]

On the radio, it sounds like you could still go out for a run or walk the dog alone, but not go to bingo or the cinema, so it may not be too restrictive if this is the case.

Sadly no one knows what is to be proposed, everything is "possibly" or "might be" or "perhaps at some point in the future".... either way yesterdays announcement was enough to crash most online supermarket sites

I have heard it may be a "social distancing" requirement to keep 2 Metre separation from anyone else which means that as I live 200 yards from a beach I can still walk my dog and I have about 10 miles of promenade/greenswarde/beach to run on. If so my sanity may well be preserved!

Either way the last thing I want to be doing is cluttering the NHS up and occupying a valuable bed because knowing I could be vulnerable I decided to ignore advice and mix with people. It could after all be my Grandson deprived of a bed, little Henry, 6 years old and asthmatic.

 

[Joker 1299]

The Spanish government waited far too long, I'm afraid.
It is asinine to make this about national identity, but methinks you can't help yourself.
Go ahead, stick your head in the sand and get your ass kicked.
Don't say you weren't warned.

Don’t worry mate, I won’t blame you, whatever happens.

 

[Maskweech]

Sadly, Boris and Donald think Covid-19 treats their nationals differently from those in China or Italy, etc.
Even more sadly, there are many who subscribe to this nonsense.
Covid-19 doesn't wave a flag.
Only the self-delusional do.
It seems the only virus even stronger and more destructive than Covid-19 is nationalism.
One would think that the lessons from history in the mid-20th Century would be sufficient to dissuade those who are tempted to fall prey to this most insidious of national ailments, but, I guess one would be wrong...
Pity.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Sadly, Boris and Donald think Covid-19 treats their nationals differently from those in China or Italy, etc.
Even more sadly, there are many who subscribe to this nonsense.
Covid-19 doesn't wave a flag.
Only the self-delusional do.
It seems the only virus even stronger and more destructive than Covid-19 is nationalism.
One would think that the lessons from history in the mid-20th Century would be sufficient to dissuade those who are tempted to fall prey to this most insidious of national ailments, but, I guess one would be wrong...
Pity.

Calm down. Covid-19 DOES in fact treat Brits and Americans differently from Chinese or Italian people. That's because each country has a unique geography, social structure, customs and norms, health system, public acceptance of voluntary and mandatory measures, etc etc. So you wouldn't expect the disease control strategies to be similar in every case, would you?

 

[Norfolk Jim]

After 18 months planning and saving Mrs willwanders son and his girlfriend left their jobs on Friday to go ‘traveling’, bad timing.

Due to fly to Oz on Wednesday, found out This morning they will have to self quarantine for 14 days on arrival. Insurance not looking like it will pay out. Tough call.

My son and his girlfriend left here in Sept and did 4 months in South America before going to Oz and at this moment are on small island off Thai coast trying to sort out a flight home as can't get into Myanmar or India - they were hoping to campervan across Canada before returning home in June. So far the island is free but they need to get out PDQ as visa's being revoked by several countries out there. They have friends who arrived in Myanmar only to be taken to a hostel for 14 day quarantine - no mention on countries gov website or anywhere!

 

[Maskweech]

Calm down. Covid-19 DOES in fact treat Brits and Americans differently from Chinese or Italian people. That's because each country has a unique geography, social structure, customs and norms, health system, public acceptance of voluntary and mandatory measures, etc etc. So you wouldn't expect the disease control strategies to be similar in every case, would you?

Are you serious?
Tell me you aren't serious...
You are pissing in the wind, my friend.
Don't forget that only true friends will care enough to tell you that.

 

[Joker 1299]

Sadly, Boris and Donald think Covid-19 treats their nationals differently from those in China or Italy, etc.
Even more sadly, there are many who subscribe to this nonsense.
Covid-19 doesn't wave a flag.
Only the self-delusional do.
It seems the only virus even stronger and more destructive than Covid-19 is nationalism.
One would think that the lessons from history in the mid-20th Century would be sufficient to dissuade those who are tempted to fall prey to this most insidious of national ailments, but, I guess one would be wrong...
Pity.

I think that there is only you who is making this nationalistic.

 

[Amarillo]

Fine, perhaps you will believe the following:

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire | William Hanage

Vulnerable people should not be exposed to Covid-19 right now in the service of a hypothetical future, says William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard

www.google.com

I read that article yesterday and it struck me that the author left out one small but significant detail: the over 70s and at high risk groups are going to be required to self isolate for up to four months.

 

[Maskweech]

I think that there is only you who is making this nationalistic.

On the contrary.
I believe Covid-19 doesn't carry a flag and have said so.
To respond to this virus differently just because you are British or American is ludicrous.
Thinking the virus will treat you differently just because of your nationality is even more silly.
But that's basically been the response here:
"We British know what we are doing."
"You don't know how we do things around here."
That's nationalism.
But, it's also well-known of nationalists to turn things around and blame those who are calling them out for exactly that of which they themselves are guilty.
I've seen all this before, my friend.

 

[Maskweech]

I read that article yesterday and it struck me that the author left out one small but significant detail: the over 70s and at high risk groups are going to be required to self isolate for up to four months.

He addresses that:
"And the mortality rate will climb when the NHS is overwhelmed. This would be expected to happen, even if we make the generous assumption that the government were entirely successful in restricting the virus to the low-risk population, at the peak of the outbreak the numbers requiring critical care would be greater than the number of beds available."

 

[GrannyJen]

I appreciate your situation.
Making light of something as serious as this is dangerous, however, because it spurs others to do the same and ignore reality in favor of self-delusion.
The herd immunity "plan" is a recipe for disaster.
It all but ensures the collapse of your NHS. A contagion left to run rampant the way Covid-19 has demonstrated it can-and will-leads to catastrophic overburdening of the healthcare system, as has been demonstrated in Italy where doctors have had to choose to let older people die in favor of treating younger people. Not by choice, but by necessity driven by lack of resources.
For your sake, I hope your "government" comes to its senses, although I fear it's already too late.

Did you bother to read my post?

 

[Velma's Dad]

Did you bother to read my post?

No, he's set to "transmit".

 

[Joker 1299]

On the contrary.
I believe Covid-19 doesn't carry a flag and have said so.
To respond to this virus differently just because you are British or American is ludicrous.
Thinking the virus will treat you differently just because of your nationality is even more silly.
But that's basically been the response here:
"We British know what we are doing."
"You don't know how we do things around here."
That's nationalism.
But, it's also well-known of nationalists to turn things around and blame those who are calling them out for exactly that of which they themselves are guilty.
I've seen all this before, my friend.

I bow to your superior knowledge on these things. May the force be with you.

 

[Amarillo]

On the contrary.
I believe Covid-19 doesn't carry a flag and have said so.
To respond to this virus differently just because you are British or American is ludicrous.
Thinking the virus will treat you differently just because of your nationality is even more silly.
But that's basically been the response here:
"We British know what we are doing."
"You don't know how we do things around here."
That's nationalism.
But, it's also well-known of nationalists to turn things around and blame those who are calling them out for exactly that of which they themselves are guilty.
I've seen all this before, my friend.

The R0 figure (speed of infection) is going to be different for all countries, and different for different communities within counties depending on how close a contact different communities have with one another. For example, from a casual observation of Mediterranean life, there appears to be a greater frequency of large multi-generational meals than in the UK, and a greater proportion of British live in houses not flats. In China a greater proportion live in villages than Europe.

Britain is gradually ratcheting up restrictions to increase social distance while preparing to build a social firewall around the over 70s and other vulnerable groups.

There is nothing to prevent a later greater shutdown as seen in Wuhan, Italy and Spain if that is what it takes. But a phased ratcheting up of restrictions while protecting the most vulnerable seems to make a great deal of sense.

 

[Maskweech]

Did you bother to read my post?

Yes, I did.
IMHO, the situation doesn't warrant all the smiley faces here.
Just my opinion.

 

[GrannyJen]

Yes, I did.
IMHO, the situation doesn't warrant all the smiley faces here.
Just my opinion.

If you had read my post then you would have read the government intention to impose a 4 month quarantine on those over 70 and those of vulnerability due to underlying health issues. This is probably the most draconian measure introduced anywhere on one sector of a population affected by coronavirus.

How you can accuse it of being complacent when considering telling otherwise healthy people to stay in their homes for 4 months, not a two week lockdown - 4 months, is something that I fail to understand.

 

[Maskweech]

The R0 figure (speed of infection) is going to be different for all countries, and different for different communities within counties depending on how close a contact different communities have with one another. For example, from a casual observation of Mediterranean life, there appears to be a greater frequency of large multi-generational meals than in the UK, and a greater proportion of British live in houses not flats. In China a greater proportion live in villages than Europe.

Britain is gradually ratcheting up restrictions to increase social distance while preparing to build a social firewall around the over 70s and other vulnerable groups.

There is nothing to prevent a later greater shutdown as seen in Wuhan, Italy and Spain if that is what it takes. But a phased ratcheting up of restrictions while protecting the most vulnerable seems to make a great deal of sense.

Earlier I posted a link to an article in the Washington Post.
You should read it.
How people behave in different countries is irrelevant.
Unless you proactively slow down the spread, you will be faced with exponential growth and health system collapse.
Social behavior and living arrangements notwithstanding.