Norway is shutting down

[WelshGas]

I refuse to join you in the gutter.
You can either remain civilized or be ignored.

Ignore me by all means. The Truth often does hurt
And just who mentioned " The Gutter " , only those already in it trying to climb out.
Respect others views and stop trying to claim your " correct " view is the one and only. Fortunately you are not in our government and not one of our scientific advisors and certainly not one of our decision makers, so I can sleep easily at night.

 

[WelshGas]

I agree with you, but an integral part of this strategy is withholding the truth from those who will die. As a strategy to protect the long term survival of a society, I agree. But as an individual, would I be prepared to make that sacrifice? That is the question that it looks like the current policy is trying to hide from young people.

Anyone would think that the " at risk " group you are referring to are so stupid and uncomprehending that they don't understand their last days might be coming. Many I've spoken to accept and understand this and we will have to exist in some way for at least 18 months until a vaccine is available. That is the real truth of the matter.

Unless the population immunity grows or a vaccine comes along very, very quickly the 'At risk " group has a 15 - 20% mortality.
Those of us who still have our marbles - we know what's coming down the track.

The bigger problem is do the younger generations know, understand and are prepared to accept what needs to be done. Judging by some of the comments - they don't .

 

[clarinetbcn]

Anyone would think that the " at risk " group you are referring to are so stupid and uncomprehending that they don't understand their last days might be coming. Many I've spoken to accept and understand this and we will have to exist in some way for at least 18 months until a vaccine is available. That is the real truth of the matter.

Unless the population immunity grows or a vaccine comes along very, very quickly the 'At risk " group has a 15 - 20% mortality.
Those of us who still have our marbles - we know what's coming down the track.

The bigger problem is do the younger generations know, understand and are prepared to accept what needs to be done. Judging by some of the comments - they don't .

You've missed the point. As the more experienced older generation shelters, and free movement shifts the contagion to younger generations, do you think young people realize that they will be the ones to be sacrificed in order to achieve herd immunity?

 

[Palm]

is Sweden open ? i'm off there sunday ? I hope

Risk minimization for own sake and others is best done at home. We have ourselves canceled a planned trip to the Netherlands and Belgium.
Sweden's borders are open so far, but things are changing fast right now and Denmark closed its borders yesterday (14 Mar). Car via Denmark is therefore excluded. A small possibility could be the ferry Rostock - Trelleborg or Travemünde - Trelleborg. However, whether that road is open tomorrow is unclear.
But! The Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs advises against non-essential travel to all countries
14 March 2020

 

[WelshGas]

You've missed the point. As the more experienced older generation shelters, and free movement shifts the contagion to younger generations, do you think young people realize that they will be the ones to be sacrificed in order to achieve herd immunity?

I think Yes, because until they catch it, and they will catch it, and the majority will have little to no symptoms then medical facilities will be available for those smaller numbers who have more severe symptoms if the older members of society are shielded for a longer time. Quarantining the whole population just delays things by 2 weeks and then its back again and the same procedure all over again.
Numbers have decreased in Wohan because of the quarantine but as soon as it is lifted they'll start increasing. This will go on and on until 80% of the population has immunity, or a vaccine is distributed to artificially immunise the population.

 

[ShmBK]

Coronavirus is the same as family or viruses as the common cold. Do we have herd immunity to he common cold?
Herd immunity requires either a long lasting immune response or a vaccine. Covid 19 has neither.

the virus has already mutated. At least 8 genetically distinct groups and several subgroups.

it will mutate further.

Spanish flu had 3 waves at least. The second was the deadliest.

 

[Palm]

There is no doubt that many, perhaps all, will somehow fall ill in convid-19. The problem is the simultaneity and the impact it has on the ability to care for those who really need hospital care to survive. Ex. if 60% of sweden polulation becomes ill in convid-19 at the same time, an estimated 1% must be taken care of in hospitals, thus 60,000 people need care sites, equipment and healthcare personnel at the same time.

 

[Amarillo]

Coronavirus is the same as family or viruses as the common cold. Do we have herd immunity to he common cold?

That is not how I understand herd immunity.

My understanding is that herd immunity doesn't mean that people cannot get the virus, just that the virus cannot go viral because there are too many people with the necessary antibodies - much like seasonal flu.

The problem with a new virus, such as COVID-19, is that at the outset no one had immunity so the virus goes viral.

Please do correct me if my understanding of this is incorrect.

=====

The mathematics might be this:

x is the number of people one infected person will on average infect.

1-(1/x) is the minimum proportion of the population who need to have immunity from the virus to prevent it going viral.

=====

Think of it like a funny picture circulating on Facebook.

The person who creates the picture sends it to three people; each of those three people send it to three more people; those nine people each send it to three more people, but some of those 27 will have already seen the picture and won't send it on. Eventually sufficient people will have already seen the picture and won't send it on. Eventually the picture stops being sent, except occasionally one who has never seen the picture before sees it, and sends it to three more people - who don't send it on because they've already seen it. Herd immunity to the picture is thus maintained even though the picture rears itself again from time to time.

 

[Jay gas]

Now I’m not sure if this is fake news or what but there has been some reports coming out of Japan that a person in there 40’s was infected in January with Covid-19 and given the all clear. This person has now presented with a second bout of covid-19. I’m now curious where that leaves us with the herd immunity aspect Of all this

 

[Amarillo]

Now I’m not sure if this is fake news or what but there has been some reports coming out of Japan that a person in there 40’s was infected in January with Covid-19 and given the all clear. This person has now presented with a second bout of covid-19. I’m now curious where that leaves us with the herd immunity aspect Of all this

There have been several reports of people getting COVID-19 twice. With the number of tests worldwide there are bound to be a percent which give either a false positive or a false negative. But if we can all get COVID-19 multiple times we might be doomed.

 

[Jay gas]

There have been several reports of people getting COVID-19 twice. With the number of tests worldwide there are bound to be a percent which give either a false positive or a false negative. But if we can all get COVID-19 multiple times we might be doomed.

The first part of your post puts my mind at rest over that. The last part of the post Sends shivers down my spine

 

[Jabberwocky]

The first part of your post puts my mind at rest over that. The last part of the post Sends shivers down my spine

And everybody elses!

 

[Lightning]

People in Norway have been ordered to leave their countryside cabins and return to their homes, due to fears rural hospitals could be ovewhelmed, according to Norwegian media.
The municipalities that have many cottages should be able to take care of their own inhabitants in a very demanding situation, health minister Bent Høie reportedly said.
This means that everyone now has to follow the strong request of the prime minister to pack their cases and go home. If they do not, we will prohibit them from staying in the cabin.

 

[Lightning]

Here is some from Matt Hancock’s announcement earlier. He said requesting all over 70-year-olds to self-isolate is a “very big ask”, but is a measure which is for their own “self-protection”.
In the coming weeks, over-70’s will be asked to self-isolate for up to four months, in order to protect them from the virus, he told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday.

 

[ShmBK]

That is not how I understand herd immunity.

My understanding is that herd immunity doesn't mean that people cannot get the virus, just that the virus cannot go viral because there are too many people with the necessary antibodies - much like seasonal flu.

The problem with a new virus, such as COVID-19, is that at the outset no one had immunity so the virus goes viral.

Please do correct me if my understanding of this is incorrect.

=====

The mathematics might be this:

x is the number of people one infected person will on average infect.

1-(1/x) is the minimum proportion of the population who need to have immunity from the virus to prevent it going viral.

=====

Think of it like a funny picture circulating on Facebook.

The person who creates the picture sends it to three people; each of those three people send it to three more people; those nine people each send it to three more people, but some of those 27 will have already seen the picture and won't send it on. Eventually sufficient people will have already seen the picture and won't send it on. Eventually the picture stops being sent, except occasionally one who has never seen the picture before sees it, and sends it to three more people - who don't send it on because they've already seen it. Herd immunity to the picture is thus maintained even though the picture rears itself again from time to time.

Doi: I’m a GP with a second degree in physiology. I’m not professing to be an expert in this or in immunology, but there in currently NO evidence I am aware of that covid elicits the required immune response.
The fact that the U.K. is an outlier in the worldwide management of this and has been criticised by the WHO for this approach should speak volumes.

their guidelines are also out of step and suggest to me that they want maximal exposureof the population to this virus based on this herd immunity theory:
- 7 day isolation instead of 14 days
-Healthcare works are to continue to work despite exposure and only stop if symptom
- no social distancing
- no travel restrictions

 

[ShmBK]

I didn’t vote for this government and I did not consent to being pet of their experiment.

90% of a&e, critical care doctors and GPs disagree with this plan.
Make your own choices but do not underestimate this disease.

that’s my Public Health Service done.

 

[WelshGas]

Lets be in no doubt the older generation and those with underlying medical conditions will bear the brunt of this infection. Hospitals caring for this group of patients, nursing homes and those receiving community care are most at risk and some very difficult decisions will have to be made. Many with degenerative brain conditions will just not be able to cope with the treatment and just receive palliative care until the inevitable happens . There are others who may not be offered maximal treatment as the outcome is inevitable. Sad though it may be that is the inevitable state of affairs. The fitter elderly, able to look after themselves have the best chance of surviving with the support of family and the wider community in the longterm.

 

[WelshGas]

I didn’t vote for this government and I did not consent to being pet of their experiment.

90% of a&e, critical care doctors and GPs disagree with this plan.
Make your own choices but do not underestimate this disease.

that’s my Public Health Service done.

Well 100% of my former colleagues in Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine that i'm still in contact with fully support the present guidelines.

 

[GrannyJen]

I didn’t vote for this government and I did not consent to being pet of their experiment.

90% of a&e, critical care doctors and GPs disagree with this plan.
Make your own choices but do not underestimate this disease.

that’s my Public Health Service done.

My critical care doctor friend is 100% in agreement with current policy as it is buying time for a maximum response when the outbreak peaks, an event that is unavoidable.

 

[ShmBK]

Let me clarify - 90% of doctors I have had contact
about this are in agreement. I’m not playing too trumps who has what friends. Make your own choices - but we all have the power to stop the chain of infection.

 

[Amarillo]

but we all have the power to stop the chain of infection.

I think this is probably incorrect. We might be able to delay and/or slow the chain of infection but stopping it is not a realistic option.

 

[ShmBK]

I think this is probably incorrect. We might be able to delay and/or slow the chain of infection but stopping it is not a realistic option.

no stopping it definitely not possible. But reducing spread and doing our best to stop spread to vulnerable people is completely possible.

 

[WelshGas]

no stopping it definitely not possible. But reducing spread and doing our best to stop spread to vulnerable people is completely possible.

By the vulnerable isolating themselves - Yes.
By isolating the whole population - very, very debatable, if realistic.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Let me clarify - 90% of doctors I have had contact
about this are in agreement. I’m not playing too trumps who has what friends. Make your own choices - but we all have the power to stop the chain of infection.

Ninety percent of medics are not epidemiology/public health specialists and I'm sure wouldn't therefore claim to have superior knowledge to those who are. Those epidemiologists I have met (not on this outbreak, but elsewhere) told me that each outbreak/pandemic is unique in the way it plays out, largely due to the unpredictability of human behaviour. So I'm sure in this one we'll only be able to say what the 'best' response was, retrospectively. Meanwhile I see no reason to believe the govt's approach is inherently flawed, or to try to be an armchair disease control expert.

 

[Lightning]

This Epidemiologist is not impressed.

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire | William Hanage

Vulnerable people should not be exposed to Covid-19 right now in the service of a hypothetical future, says William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard

www.theguardian.com