Norway to 'completely ban petrol powered cars by 2025'

[Lightning]

The UK deadline for the switch is 2035. I imagine large cities will adopt the much change earlier.

Busting the myths and misconceptions about electric vehicles | National Grid Group

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When I was in Norway recently I was amazed at how many Tesla fast chargers there were around. There were lots of them all over the place.

 

[Calimili]

A better analogy might be between drug users and drug producers.

How guilty is an Afghan poppy farmer for the misery of a US addict?

I’m not sure I can answer that question, but I am pretty sure that the Afghan farmer grows poppies to lift himself out of poverty, and the US addict risks their use reducing themselves to poverty.

How that helps resolve the guilt or otherwise of oil producer/consumer is for debate.

Norway isn't a poor poppy ignorant farmer trying to lift himself out of poverty.
Norway is one of the richest countries in the world, that was the point made bringing the wiki article about its 1 trillion usd fund. It isn't either ignorant or a farmer, taking Equinor as an example it is a world class organisation.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equinor

 

[Lightning]

When I was in Norway recently I was amazed at how many Tesla fast chargers there were around. There were lots of them all over the place.

Tesla supercharger map.

Find Us | Tesla

Use the interactive Find Us map to locate Tesla charging stations, service centers, galleries and stores on the go.

www.tesla.com

 

[Amarillo]

Norway isn't a poor poppy ignorant farmer trying to lift himself out of poverty.
Norway is one of the richest countries in the world, that was the point made bringing the wiki article about its 1 trillion usd fund. It isn't either ignorant or a farmer, taking Equinor as an example it is a world class organisation.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equinor

Yes - I can see the flaw in my analogy. However, Norway wasn't rich before its oil reserves were discovered, and is now as addicted to oil exports as much as other countries are addicted to oil imports.

So maybe an improved analogy would be between a rich Afghan landowner and a US addict. Who is to blame for the misery of the addict?

 

[Saesneg Shaun]

The UK deadline for the switch is 2035. I imagine large cities will adopt the much change earlier.

Busting the myths and misconceptions about electric vehicles | National Grid Group

Can the electricity grid cope with more EVs? And what really happens to old EV batteries? Find out the answer to these and many more questions about electric vehicles in our comprehensive EV myth-buster.

www.nationalgrid.com

I expect they will but not without massive investment in the regional distribution networks which National Grid has no direct control. All the Distribution Network Operators are comitted to providing Low Carbon Networks but unless the regulator allows the funds to invest in EV charging this will be remain focused on sustainable generation.
True overall consumption is reducing and staggered charging might work with public re-education but only if you have access a charging point in the first place.
Cities may overcome this and I applaud Norway if they can go ICE free in 4 years but in the UK by 2035? I just can't see it.

 

[Calimili]

Yes - I can see the flaw in my analogy. However, Norway wasn't rich before its oil reserves were discovered, and is now as addicted to oil exports as much as other countries are addicted to oil imports.

So maybe an improved analogy would be between a rich Afghan landowner and a US addict. Who is to blame for the misery of the addict?

Agreed. It is debatable. The point I was trying to make is, there is bit of hypocrisy portraing Norway as "good" for their commitment to EV, where infact they got rich, and continue to profit enormously, from selling oil.
Peace!

 

[Lightning]

Agreed. It is debatable. The point I was trying to make is, there is bit of hypocrisy portraing Norway as "good" for their commitment to EV, where infact they got rich, and continue to profit enormously, from selling oil.
Peace!

That must have been your interpretation because nobody gave an opinion that it was good or bad except you.
Which is better?
1.Exporting oil and not converting to low carbon solutions domestically.
2. Exporting oil and converting to low carbon solutions domestically.
3. Importing oil and not converting to low carbon solutions domestically?

If Norway stopped supplying it, somebody else would, so what would be the benefit to the environment? It’s not hypocrisy it’s pragmatism in my view.

 

[Lightning]

I expect they will but not without massive investment in the regional distribution networks which National Grid has no direct control. All the Distribution Network Operators are comitted to providing Low Carbon Networks but unless the regulator allows the funds to invest in EV charging this will be remain focused on sustainable generation.
True overall consumption is reducing and staggered charging might work with public re-education but only if you have access a charging point in the first place.
Cities may overcome this and I applaud Norway if they can go ICE free in 4 years but in the UK by 2035? I just can't see it.

I’m not sure how they will deal with a charging network for all the cars that have to park on the street overnight. Apart from that, it sounds straightforward to replace petrol stations and car parks with fast chargers.

 

[Ch1pbutty]

Charge points would allow the supplier to charge whatever rate they want per unit. Imagine if a rule came in that prevented you from charging your car home due to the strain it puts on the local network, so you couldn’t charge at home.

Would people still be as keen on EV’s if the cost per mile was more expensive than they currently pay with petrol / diesel.

 

[Lightning]

Charge points would allow the supplier to charge whatever rate they want per unit. Imagine if a rule came in that prevented you from charging your car home due to the strain it puts on the local network, so you couldn’t charge at home.

Would people still be as keen on EV’s if the cost per mile was more expensive than they currently pay with petrol / diesel.

The national grid link above states if everybody switched tomorrow there would be a 10% increase in demand, as the charging would be largely at night. Intelligent chargers would be mandated to prevent charging at peak demand times in the evening and prevent overloading the network.
Today it costs about £30 to charge a Tesla model S from empty to full at a public supercharger. Doing it a home overnight can only be cheaper.

 

[Trevor Brown]

As I mentioned in a post in some previous occasion, when interested in buying a BMW i3, I asked how long the batteries lasted, and how much would they cost to replace. The answer given was “I have no idea...and cost to replace 4 batteries including Labour would be £8,00”. The opinion ultimately expressed was that the need could arise when 12 years old. You can draw your own conclusions. Incidentally the salesman expressed the opinion “you wouldn’t want to keep it that long anyway ....”.

 

[Lightning]

As I mentioned in a post in some previous occasion, when interested in buying a BMW i3, I asked how long the batteries lasted, and how much would they cost to replace. The answer given was “I have no idea...and cost to replace 4 batteries including Labour would be £8,00”. The opinion ultimately expressed was that the need could arise when 12 years old. You can draw your own conclusions. Incidentally the salesman expressed the opinion “you wouldn’t want to keep it that long anyway ....”.

Battery technology seems to be constantly improving. I suppose you just have to factor it in to the lifecycle cost. In all other respects I think EVs are said to be cheaper to maintain.

Tesla’s new low-cost, long-life battery set for 2021 launch | Auto Express

Tesla’s next-generation battery pack could bring cost of EVs in-line with combustion-engined vehicles

www.autoexpress.co.uk

 

[Saesneg Shaun]

The national grid link above states if everybody switched tomorrow there would be a 10% increase in demand, as the charging would be largely at night. Intelligent chargers would be mandated to prevent charging at peak demand times in the evening and prevent overloading the network.
Today it costs about £30 to charge a Tesla model S from empty to full at a public supercharger. Doing it a home overnight can only be cheaper.

IMO mandated intelligent charging would be a huge fail. How do you prioritise who gets the most convienient charging slots? That would quickly lead to a tiered pricing structure.
Proper network re-enforcement is the fairest solution but that will take a huge amount of investment in addressing the problems of a distribution system designed in the fifties.

 

[Lightning]

IMO mandated intelligent charging would be a huge fail. How do you prioritise who gets the most convienient charging slots? That would quickly lead to a tiered pricing structure.
Proper network re-enforcement is the fairest solution but that will take a huge amount of investment in addressing the problems of a distribution system designed in the fifties.

Businesses love tiered pricing structures. It’s almost certainly what will happen as nobody will want to invest in the distribution system if they don’t need to and can make more money by not doing so.

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

That must have been your interpretation because nobody gave an opinion that it was good or bad except you.
Which is better?
1.Exporting oil and not converting to low carbon solutions domestically.
2. Exporting oil and converting to low carbon solutions domestically.
3. Importing oil and not converting to low carbon solutions domestically?

If Norway stopped supplying it, somebody else would, so what would be the benefit to the environment? It’s not hypocrisy it’s pragmatism in my view.

4. Converting to low carbon solutions domestically AND ceasing the export of oil (export of pollution).

Surely it’s an all too easy ‘get out’ to say that if Norway doesn’t supply oil somebody else will. Isn’t the point is that a country can’t have conflicting green policies and remain convincing?

 

[Lightning]

4. Converting to low carbon solutions domestically AND ceasing the export of oil (export of pollution).

Surely it’s an all too easy ‘get out’ to say that if Norway doesn’t supply oil somebody else will. Isn’t the point is that a country can’t have conflicting green policies and remain convincing?

4. Converting to low carbon solutions domestically AND ceasing the export of oil (export of pollution).

Surely it’s an all too easy ‘get out’ to say that if Norway doesn’t supply oil somebody else will. Isn’t the point is that a country can’t have conflicting green policies and remain convincing?

Perfect is the enemy of good - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Perfect is the enemy of good - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Amarillo]

4. Converting to low carbon solutions domestically AND ceasing the export of oil (export of pollution).

Surely it’s an all too easy ‘get out’ to say that if Norway doesn’t supply oil somebody else will. Isn’t the point is that a country can’t have conflicting green policies and remain convincing?

I think that is spot on.

There are two measures of CO2 production:
1. By consumption
2. By production

Unfortunately Norway gets let off the hook by both measures, as pumping oil from below the sea bed and exporting it produces little CO2. It is burning the stuff that causes most CO2.

 

[WelshGas]

 

[BikerGran]

As the UK deadline is 2035 I guess I don't need to concern myself with it as I'm not that likely to be still driving as I'll be 88 by then. It's always good to find one less thing to worry about!

 

[Wildcamper]

Agree, they will ban sell new cars with petrol, not to drive them. I think it's a great news which should be implemented worldwide.

Electric is great if you know where it is going to come from. The UK used between 50 and 60 billion litres of petrol/diesel per year. At about 9.5kWh electric equivalent per litre this equates to 10 Hinckley Point C nuclear power stations. We don't have them and neither does anyone else. Alternatively it equates to covering the entire SW in wind turbines and/or solar cells. I again ask the question I have asked for 30 years; where is the electricity going to come from? I have driven a good selection of electric and fuel cells vehicles and they are great, but none are any good without a clear plan of how to fuel them.

 

[Lightning]

Electric is great if you know where it is going to come from. The UK used between 50 and 60 billion litres of petrol/diesel per year. At about 9.5kWh electric equivalent per litre this equates to 10 Hinckley Point C nuclear power stations. We don't have them and neither does anyone else. Alternatively it equates to covering the entire SW in wind turbines and/or solar cells. I again ask the question I have asked for 30 years; where is the electricity going to come from? I have driven a good selection of electric and fuel cells vehicles and they are great, but none are any good without a clear plan of how to fuel them.

The link above from the National Grid states that if everybody changed to electric cars tomorrow a 10% increase in output would be required. Smart chargers would be mandated to prevent overloading the national grid at peak times. They are responsible for managing the output and they state that sufficient capability exists today.

 

[Wildcamper]

The link above from the National Grid states that if everybody changed to electric cars tomorrow a 10% increase in output would be required. Smart chargers would be mandated to prevent overloading the national grid at peak times. They are responsible for managing the output and they state that sufficient capability exists today.

I've seen this. The numbers do not stack up. Believe it if you wish.

 

[Lightning]

I've seen this. The numbers do not stack up. Believe it if you wish.

It sounds convincing. Which number is incorrect?


Enough capacity exists
With the first of these, the energy element, the most demand for electricity we’ve had in recent years in the UK was for 62GW in 2002. Since then, due to improved energy efficiency such as the installation of solar panels, the nation’s peak demand has fallen by roughly 16 per cent. Even if the impossible happened and we all switched to EVs overnight, we think demand would only increase by around 10 per cent. So we’d still be using less power as a nation than we did in 2002 and this is well within the range of manageable load fluctuation.

'When' matters, not just 'how much'
More complicated though is the issue of when that power demand actually happens – is it all at once or spread through the day and week?

The traditional evening peak of electricity demand is between 6 and 8pm, and this might well coincide with people returning from their commute and plugging in their cars.

If we want to provide sufficient infrastructure and energy for EVs as cheaply as possible for consumers, we ideally don’t want to add to that evening peak and need to spread that demand better.

With this in mind, recently the Government’s EV Energy Taskforce recommended that all future car chargers should be ‘smart by design’. This means that no matter what time you come home and plug your car in at, it will charge when you need it but will pause during that evening peak when energy is most expensive and demand on the grid is highest.

 

[Wildcamper]

It sounds convincing. Which number is incorrect?


Enough capacity exists
With the first of these, the energy element, the most demand for electricity we’ve had in recent years in the UK was for 62GW in 2002. Since then, due to improved energy efficiency such as the installation of solar panels, the nation’s peak demand has fallen by roughly 16 per cent. Even if the impossible happened and we all switched to EVs overnight, we think demand would only increase by around 10 per cent. So we’d still be using less power as a nation than we did in 2002 and this is well within the range of manageable load fluctuation.

'When' matters, not just 'how much'
More complicated though is the issue of when that power demand actually happens – is it all at once or spread through the day and week?

The traditional evening peak of electricity demand is between 6 and 8pm, and this might well coincide with people returning from their commute and plugging in their cars.

If we want to provide sufficient infrastructure and energy for EVs as cheaply as possible for consumers, we ideally don’t want to add to that evening peak and need to spread that demand better.

With this in mind, recently the Government’s EV Energy Taskforce recommended that all future car chargers should be ‘smart by design’. This means that no matter what time you come home and plug your car in at, it will charge when you need it but will pause during that evening peak when energy is most expensive and demand on the grid is highest.

There are no hard numbers in the report, it is all "we think", " we believe" etc. The very first sentence you quote is meaningless. There is no such unit as a GW! It is GW.hours. Without the time element the 62GW means nothing. 62 GW over what time domain, one hour, a day, a week, a year. Who knows! I have attended electric and fuel cell meetings in most parts of the world going back to 1990. Every, that is in every single, meeting I have asked for hard numbers of where the electricity is to come from. I have never been giving any numbers in 30 years! So here are some numbers. UK used 50 billion litres of petrol/diesel per year (50-60 in 2018). One litre is the equivalent of 9.5kW.h of electricity. 9.5 x 50 billion is (9.5 x 50,000,000,000) 4.75 x 10E11kW.h. This is 475,000,000 MW.h or 475,000GW.h over the year. Hinckley Point C should produce 3.5GW.h at max out put so over a year that is 3.5x365x24 = 31,937.5 GW.h over the year but we need 475,000GW hours over the year. Hence the number of Hinckley Point C's needed is 475,000/32,937.5 = 14.4 Hinckley Point C's. Now assume I am 50% out, we still need 7 Hinckley Point C's. If you convert this to 2MW.h wind turbines (you need to triple the 475,000GW.h as one needs to install 3MW.h to get 1MW.h) each needing up to 4 acres of space the UK land area disappears! I am all for e vehicles but they need to be powered! Time to be honest with the public, but the politics does not allow that. Shame. The sh*t will hit the fan eventually.