** POLL** When do you thing you'll be able to freely use your Cali again?

[Amarillo]

I don’t think that will work. The effort to close this thing down by trying to track and trace infections is immense because the R0 number is so high when a lockdown is in place. But the even bigger problem is that it leaves the population vulnerable to this virus every time an outbreak appears. We can’t keep shutting down the economy.
Having a large proportion of the population acquire immunity whether by surviving infection or an eventual vaccine is the only way.

Isn't that what they are doing in South Korea?

 

[GregW]

Isn't that what they are doing in South Korea?

South Korea jumped on tracing interactions from Infection one, its far to late for that to work in the U.K.

There are too many to test and trace, and infections are most likely between 10x and 100x the official reported number.

 

[Amarillo]

South Korea jumped on tracing interactions from Infection one, its far to late for that to work in the U.K.

There are too many to test and trace, and infections are most likely between 10x and 100x the official reported number.

I know. But what I mean is that once Britain has squished the curve back down to perhaps 100 cases a day, it could try to keep the curve squished by testing all those who have come into contact with a known infected person, and quarantining all those found to be infected. Isn't that what the WHO recommend, and isn't it what Germany are doing too?

 

[GregW]

Let’s hope they can squish it that low without turning us into the type of 3rd world country who’s ruined economy forces them to tolerate malaria which kills 400,000 a year.

 

[Velma's Dad]

South Korea jumped on tracing interactions from Infection one, its far to late for that to work in the U.K.

There are too many to test and trace, and infections are most likely between 10x and 100x the official reported number.

I'm only an armchair epidemiologist (like most of us) but I think the point is that once the proportion of 'recovereds' in the population rises to a high enough level the number of new infections falls to a level where test-and-trace-and-quarantine can then be effective - if adequately resourced - to keep new cluster outbreaks under control among a small proportion of the population who remain 'susceptibles'

There's a very good explainer in last week's Economist, from which I found graphic very helpful:

Let’s hope they can squish it that low without turning us into the type of 3rd world country who’s ruined economy forces them to tolerate malaria which kills 400,000 a year.

In the case of malaria, which of course is a parasitic disease, there is little or no immunity and indeed remains an awful scourge in many poor countries which cannot afford the necessary vector control measures. Whereas viral diseases like Covid can be reasonably predicted to burn down to a low level.

 

[Amarillo]

Austria is now easing some restrictions. Barbers (who are related to the early surgeons) are to open, as are non essential shops.