** POLL** When do you thing you'll be able to freely use your Cali again?

[Karlos]

I wanted 5-6 months but that's not there. I am hoping we will be able to use our Cali and have free movement mid to late August.

 

[Gazellio]

I think it will be in about 2 months as the government is keen to get out of its lock-down strategy as although its stops the spread it only stops it temporarily so catch 22. I believe within a month we will be asked to go back to work but use masks etc and take precautions with regular hand washing etc. This way the Herd Immunity will build and an end to the virus will be in sight even though a long way off.

 

[Amarillo]

I strongly suspect schools will be closed until September.

After the traditional Easter school holiday, i.e. in two weeks, there may well be a limited lifting of restrictions. Perhaps shops other than supermarkets open to passing trade.

 

[Gazellio]

Cant disagree with the thought process but if this were the case there will be nothing worth saving. I don't see how the govt can feasibly maintain this beyond end May.

There are many flights to most major destinations in Europe available to book now daily and having checked hotel booking is still normal availability across Europe. So who is using these flights and hotels if we are banned from travelling at the moment?

 

[calibeach76]

I think it will be in about 2 months as the government is keen to get out of its lock-down strategy as although its stops the spread it only stops it temporarily so catch 22. I believe within a month we will be asked to go back to work but use masks etc and take precautions with regular hand washing etc. This way the Herd Immunity will build and an end to the virus will be in sight even though a long way off.

I'm with you and info I hear about from various sources would indicate similar..

 

[calibeach76]

I strongly suspect schools will be closed until September.

After the traditional Easter school holiday, i.e. in two weeks, there may well be a limited lifting of restrictions. Perhaps shops other than supermarkets open to passing trade.

It is being indicated at my eldest daughter's school that likely school will resume in September. Far be it from me to question this

 

[Gazellio]

There are many flights to most major destinations in Europe available to book now daily and having checked hotel booking is still normal availability across Europe. So who is using these flights and hotels if we are banned from travelling at the moment?

Having checked travel is not legally bannedby law but strictly advised against....
COVID-19 Exceptional Travel Advisory Notice
As countries respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, including travel and border restrictions, the FCO advises British nationals against all but essential international travel. Any country or area may restrict travel without notice. If you live in the UK and are currently travelling abroad, you are strongly advised to return now, where and while there are still commercial routes available. Many airlines are suspending flights and many airports are closing, preventing flights from leaving.

 

[Mac545]

There are many flights to most major destinations in Europe available to book now daily and having checked hotel booking is still normal availability across Europe. So who is using these flights and hotels if we are banned from travelling at the moment?

I’m an air traffic controller. Nobody are using these flights......air traffic down 90% compared to last year. Any flights now are freight, repositioning flights or repatriation flights. It’ll take a good 3-6 months before airlines even start slowly to build up to any kind of schedule.

 

[westfalia]

There are many flights to most major destinations in Europe available to book now daily and having checked hotel booking is still normal availability across Europe. So who is using these flights and hotels if we are banned from travelling at the moment?

At the moment its not allowed in Germany, not saying that it was
ever on your list, but here's a press release.

If the minimum distance is not adhered to, the interpretation instructions for punishing administrative offenses are subject to a fine of 100 euros. It costs 200 euros if more than two people are in public without permission. Shopkeepers who open their shop have to pay 2500 euros. Who opens his hotel for tourists: 4000 to 5000 euros.

 

[Gazellio]

I’m an air traffic controller. Nobody are using these flights......air traffic down 90% compared to last year. Any flights now are freight, repositioning flights or repatriation flights. It’ll take a good 3-6 months before airlines even start slowly to build up to any kind of schedule.

OK thanks I was looking at https://www.flightradar24.com/46.74,10.02/5

 

[Mac545]

OK thanks I was looking at https://www.flightradar24.com/46.74,10.02/5

 

[2into1]

I believe that the determining factor as to when things can start to get back to 'normal' will be the speed at which we learn how to save more of those who end up in intensive care.

The data is a bit hard to find for Joe Public but worldwide I'm hearing that only 50% entering intensive care are surving. The expected mortality at the Nightingale hospital where less critical cases will be sent is still expected to be 20%.

How might that improve?

There is great worldwide sharing (excl China) of how to improve those numbers. Any bits of best practice are being shared openly and quickly.

There are some signs of encouragement from the repurposing of older drugs.

As soon as having a bad case of Covid begins to have better outcomes, then the Government will have the moral space it needs to ease the lock down.

It will be gradually lifted by age and risk profile, with the most vulnerable being kept in isolation until a vaccine arrives maybe next Spring. Obviously being able to show you have the antibodies will release you too.

 

[daz60]

We are using our California at this moment spag bol for two nice red on the drive listening to Leisa Tarbuck

 

[daz60]

Sorry plus a view from are van

 

[Lightning]

I believe that the determining factor as to when things can start to get back to 'normal' will be the speed at which we learn how to save more of those who end up in intensive care.

The data is a bit hard to find for Joe Public but worldwide I'm hearing that only 50% entering intensive care are surving. The expected mortality at the Nightingale hospital where less critical cases will be sent is still expected to be 20%.

How might that improve?

There is great worldwide sharing (excl China) of how to improve those numbers. Any bits of best practice are being shared openly and quickly.

There are some signs of encouragement from the repurposing of older drugs.

As soon as having a bad case of Covid begins to have better outcomes, then the Government will have the moral space it needs to ease the lock down.

It will be gradually lifted by age and risk profile, with the most vulnerable being kept in isolation until a vaccine arrives maybe next Spring. Obviously being able to show you have the antibodies will release you too.

My understanding is that in severe cases it turns into Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. The mortality for this, which can occur after trauma or sepis for example, is I think around 50% independently of corona. I think your chances significantly improve the younger you are. I don’t think there is much opportunity for improving the mortality for ARDS at the moment or they would probably know how to do so already.
I suffered ARDS in ICU after a bad motorbike crash 10 years ago, so I am familiar with it unfortunately.

 

[GregW]

Cant disagree with the thought process but if this were the case there will be nothing worth saving. I don't see how the govt can feasibly maintain this beyond end May.

They won’t maintain it, they will relax and tighten it as needed to keep the flow of infections at a manageable level.

But my point is that countries will not allow foreign tourists in (i.e. us into Europe) until the ‘relax and tighten’ phase is over.

 

[Amarillo]

But my point is that countries will not allow foreign tourists in (i.e. us into Europe) until the ‘relax and tighten’ phase is over.

You can still use Le Shuttle to France if travelling to a main residence, travelling for 'essential work' and medical staff. Once non-essential businesses in France reopen I would expect the cross channel restrictions to be relaxed. I expect it is the reopening of hotels that would signal the reopening of cross channel traffic for all.

 

[2into1]

My understanding is that in severe cases it turns into Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. The mortality for this, which can occur after trauma or sepis for example, is I think around 50% independently of corona. I think your chances significantly improve the younger you are. I don’t think there is much opportunity for improving the mortality for ARDS at the moment or they would probably know how to do so already.
I suffered ARDS in ICU after a bad motorbike crash 10 years ago, so I am familiar with it unfortunately.

Yes that’s a good addition. I’ve heard several explanations about your lungs effectively filling with liquid when that happens, they then can’t do their job of getting oxygen into your blood, so you effectively drown. Thank god you are asleep by then in ICU.
So the improvement I referred to (desperately hoping for) is a treatment to stop the infection developing ARDS in so many cases.

 

[Amarillo]

I think that there is another way out of this mess which has not had much of a mention here.

When the daily infections fall below a certain level, and I have no idea what that level might be: 1000s, 100s, tens or single digits, extensive testing could be used to catch infectious people early and isolate. Then trace and test all those in contact with the infectious person. This would reduce the average number of people each infectious person infects, and if that is below one the problem will fade.

 

[T6 CFO]

Andrew Marr today was extremely impressive.

Not much point in summarising it but worth watching.

Neil Ferguson was impressive.

Matt Hancock was seriously impressive and passionate.


Exit strategies were discussed.



Mike

 

[Velma's Dad]

Andrew Marr today was extremely impressive.

Not much point in summarising it but worth watching.

Neil Ferguson was impressive.

Matt Hancock was seriously impressive and passionate.


Exit strategies were discussed.



Mike

Yes I found it very helpful to actually hear what Ferguson thinks, from the horse's mouth.

Unfortunately I found Keir Starmer (also on Marr) less impressive (I'm not making any party political observation). Admittedly he has not yet been fully briefed. However he was talking about vaccination as an exit strategy from the lock-down. I think that's highly unrealistic, unless he thinks it's feasible to maintain the lock-down for many months (and even then there may be no vaccine). To be fair he did also acknowledge that test-and-contact trace is viable as an exit strategy assuming adequate testing capacity can be achieved.

 

[willwander]

I think that there is another way out of this mess which has not had much of a mention here.

When the daily infections fall below a certain level, and I have no idea what that level might be: 1000s, 100s, tens or single digits, extensive testing could be used to catch infectious people early and isolate. Then trace and test all those in contact with the infectious person. This would reduce the average number of people each infectious person infects, and if that is below one the problem will fade.

We could ship them all to an island like we used to with lepers, Canvey island would make a fine lazarette

 

[T6 CFO]

Yes I found it very helpful to actually hear what Ferguson thinks, from the horse's mouth.

Unfortunately I found Keir Starmer (also on Marr) less impressive (I'm not making any party political observation). Admittedly he has not yet been fully briefed. However he was talking about vaccination as an exit strategy from the lock-down. I think that's highly unrealistic, unless he thinks it's feasible to maintain the lock-down for many months (and even then there may be no vaccine). To be fair he did also acknowledge that test-and-contact trace is viable as an exit strategy assuming adequate testing capacity can be achieved.

Agreed. I purposefully left him off my list for the reasons you gave.

Nice to see AM pull him up when he started referring to not criticising and then the mistake of going for herd immunity approach which he had just heard a very detailed answer given my MH. He was better from there.


Mike

 

[GregW]

I think that there is another way out of this mess which has not had much of a mention here.

When the daily infections fall below a certain level, and I have no idea what that level might be: 1000s, 100s, tens or single digits, extensive testing could be used to catch infectious people early and isolate. Then trace and test all those in contact with the infectious person. This would reduce the average number of people each infectious person infects, and if that is below one the problem will fade.

I don’t think that will work. The effort to close this thing down by trying to track and trace infections is immense because the R0 number is so high when a lockdown is in place. But the even bigger problem is that it leaves the population vulnerable to this virus every time an outbreak appears. We can’t keep shutting down the economy.
Having a large proportion of the population acquire immunity whether by surviving infection or an eventual vaccine is the only way.

 

[GregW]

I don’t think that will work. The effort to close this thing down by trying to track and trace infections is immense because the R0 number is so high when a lockdown is in place.

I meant to say ‘a lockdown isn’t in place’