Amarillo
Tom
Super Poster
VIP Member
Not if you want to replace with another Cali.worth thinking about?
Not if you want to replace with another Cali.worth thinking about?
The GAP in value tends to remain pretty constant in percentage terms. higher new price is reflected in higher second hand price. Problem is in reality that as inflation increases so does the Gap making it a painful financial process to upgrade.Very interesting point about price rises, VED and future "cost of replacement gap" but are you not comparing that with todays second hand values? Surely these will harden because of that gap? i.e. more people who would buy new today will consider more seriously a second hand Cali and create more demand and hence that hardening of prices I mentioned above. I wouldn't be too quick to think this is all doom and gloom. Markets always react to changing economic circumstance. For example I would not be surprised if come July/August this year with another price increase from VW already imposed if you could not sell a Cali bought before December (16) increase for very close to what you paid for it - worth thinking about?
So true!In reality if you 'want' a new Cali then you will make the figures work for you regardless!
From what I can find on categories of tax Government information it looks like all cars and light commercial vehicles have been put into this £40,000 surcharge category.
The dividing point being at 3.5 tonnes GVW. LGV's & HGV's come under a different regime.
My previous Motorhome was rated at 3.5 Tonnes so I would think that all small Motorhomes will fall foul of this change, as would any converted new Campervan.
Looks like even a T6 Van with a higher spec if over the £40K will go into the higher VED category,.
It should be possible to buy a new van, then at a later date have it converted but you wouldn't have a genuine 'Cali' and probably spend nearly as much.
Hello Jabberwocky,Very interesting point about price rises, VED and future "cost of replacement gap" but are you not comparing that with todays second hand values? Surely these will harden because of that gap? i.e. more people who would buy new today will consider more seriously a second hand Cali and create more demand and hence that hardening of prices I mentioned above. I wouldn't be too quick to think this is all doom and gloom. Markets always react to changing economic circumstance. For example I would not be surprised if come July/August this year with another price increase from VW already imposed if you could not sell a Cali bought before December (16) increase for very close to what you paid for it - worth thinking about?
Not 'rubbish'.Hello Jabberwocky,
I completely agree with you about second hand prices remaining firm and that it's due mainly because of the price of a new Cali. I also agree that Calis purchased before April will almost certainly be commanding very good prices for some time to come. However my point is:
Will there eventually be a price ceiling for new Cali purchases beyond which demand starts to fall off?
With prices now pushing £70k, will UK buyers at some point soon, begin to say NO that's just too expensive for a new Camper van? I imagine that if that point is reached and demand no longer outstrips supply, VW will be faced with several choices:
1. Drop their prices to encourage more sales.
2. Chuck every optional extra they have at it to encourage sales.
3. Discontinue Cali production for the UK market at least or........
4. Start selling a T7 Cali.
All standard manufacturer sales tactics.
I don't think that we are anywhere near that point at the moment but I feel sure that the time will come. I don't see it as being doom and gloom but merely a reality of motor manufacturing.
Just my opinion, (which has been known to be rubbish before).
Bottom priced Beach is £39,336 leaving a £663 margin for extras and that's it.Wherever possible, I think manufacturers will start to remove options in order to get their vehicle below the tax point figure. Things like heated seats, cruise control, parking sensors, even radios may start to be aftermarket dealer fit items. Obviously they would need to remove an awful lot from an Ocean, but the Beach could probably be made to fit below £40k.
Certainly not rubbish!Hello Jabberwocky,
I completely agree with you about second hand prices remaining firm and that it's due mainly because of the price of a new Cali. I also agree that Calis purchased before April will almost certainly be commanding very good prices for some time to come. However my point is:
Will there eventually be a price ceiling for new Cali purchases beyond which demand starts to fall off?
With prices now pushing £70k, will UK buyers at some point soon, begin to say NO that's just too expensive for a new Camper van? I imagine that if that point is reached and demand no longer outstrips supply, VW will be faced with several choices:
1. Drop their prices to encourage more sales.
2. Chuck every optional extra they have at it to encourage sales.
3. Discontinue Cali production for the UK market at least or........
4. Start selling a T7 Cali.
All standard manufacturer sales tactics.
I don't think that we are anywhere near that point at the moment but I feel sure that the time will come. I don't see it as being doom and gloom but merely a reality of motor manufacturing.
Just my opinion, (which has been known to be rubbish before).
Quite so. I suspect that VW have been losing potential customers for some time because of the many excellent conversions now being offered. Possibly people who thought that the Cali has already become too expensive. Also with the new Mercedes Benz Marco Polo coming to the UK market soon the campervan market is only going to get more competitive.Not 'rubbish'.
Another factor that may come into it is that traditional Motorhome manufacturers are now increasingly producing highly spec'd van conversions for similar or less money than Cali's. Hymer Car even has a pop top.
Well I know we all like the many toys that can be optioned these days but I personaly find the thought of a basic no thrills Cali quite exciting. Just the essence of the California SE/Ocean stripped of all the unecessary complications and potential problem areas. Manual roof, manual gear box, manual windows etc etc. Just as long as it has still got that auxilliary heater. It's my bet that there would be a lot less problems to report on this forum and IMO it wouldn't dilute the fabulous Cali feeling of freedom to roam either.Wherever possible, I think manufacturers will start to remove options in order to get their vehicle below the tax point figure. Things like heated seats, cruise control, parking sensors, even radios may start to be aftermarket dealer fit items. Obviously they would need to remove an awful lot from an Ocean, but the Beach could probably be made to fit below £40k.
Oh, indeed! I can hear him complaining to this day! Bless him.£1700 in 1962 is around £34K in today's money. Still a fair chunk of cash!
http://www.hl.co.uk/tools/calculators/inflation-calculator
Well I like your story about your Dad and I think you may have just put your finger on it. Maybe, I am just getting old and with age goes the knowledge of how much things used to cost. Those memories often cause that familiar old skinflint's cry of HOW MUCH?Certainly not rubbish!
I agree that the manufacturers will use all the "tricks" they can and of course so will all the other manufacturers so I am guessing that whilst Cali prices will continue to rise so will all other vehicles at a similar rate. The issue for VW is will others costs/prices increase the same as their's? Well I think that this is also very likely. We have seen this be the case over many, many years for all vehicles, not just the Cali but also for those vehicles in parallel markets/sectors. It is a fact therefore that all vehicles will increase in price quite significantly in the next couple of years. Brexit will drive some of this (exchange rate, inflation etc.) especially as some 85% of all vehicles registered in UK are imported - MMA). The matter is complex and I don't pretend to have all the answers but what is overriding in my mind right now is at what time will we and the next generations loose the need/desire to be out and about enjoying the freedom that only the kind of life our Cali's can provide?
I suspect never and as such we will always find a way to get the cash be it for a new one or second hand!!
To illustrate - My dear dad bought two campervans, one secondhand in 1962 and then a new one in 1964. If my recollection is right he paid about £1700 for the new one!!! He complained at that but was still won over by the lure of the life it offered - we are no different.
He would have been horrified at the cost of a Cali today and no doubt would be of the view that £55k+ was "just too much" yet here we are in todays market buying new and secondhand and justifying these prices to ourselves - I think this will continue into the foreseeable future in a similar way.
Interesting. VW clearly have a good order book and are at production limit with what they have set up. Lead-times are long. The length of the UK lead-time has been increasing over the last year and even when VW decide to increase the UK annual allocation by 300 units the lead-time still increases. As far as UK conversions are concerned I have experienced two in the last year (one was from a "UK leading" supplier- god help us if this was one of the best!! And was no cheaper than a Cali to buy) and was not overly impressed by either which was partly what drove me to order a new Cali warts and all!Quite so. I suspect that VW have been losing potential customers for some time because of the many excellent conversions now being offered. Possibly people who thought that the Cali has already become too expensive. Also with the new Mercedes Benz Marco Polo coming to the UK market soon the campervan market is only going to get more competitive.
All that said he was younger than I when he bought his first campervan. Was he (my Dad) a skinflint then - yeah probablyWell I like your story about your Dad and I think you may have just put your finger on it. Maybe, I am just getting old and with age goes the knowledge of how much things used to cost. Those memories often cause that familiar old skinflint's cry of HOW MUCH?
Sounds like me today after being charged £3 to park on a piece of muddy ground outside Beeston Castle.old skinflint's cry of HOW MUCH?
Excellent! We're all a bit tight with our cash - need to be to pay for our CalisSounds like me today after being charged £3 to park on a piece of muddy ground outside Beeston Castle.
(We would have had to pay to get in too, but we are members of Cadw so entitled to free entry at English Heritage; however we still had to pay for No 3 son + £6.70. Beeston Castle is not marvellous, just a crumbling ruin, the views from the top are good but there are plenty of other free hills .)
Out of interest what mpg are you getting?
Our T5 Cali has these too, we were a bit dubious after our earlier Cali with the spring out ones, but they are a lot easier to pack away.One niggle used the internal cab blackouts rather than our external screen the magnetic driver and passenger door window blinds are nowhere as good as our old spring out T5 ones
What do you think of the sliding windscreen blinds?
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