Sorry I have to disagree again.
I have been monitoring the used market for over twelve months now and where we are today is the most used Cali's I have ever seen for sale, I would say it is up by over 300% compared to this time last year. Several dealers also told me they have seen the biggest year for new California sales and many were using up their allocation. This in turn will mean we will see more and more for sale and once the quantity goes up the prices will have to come down, I see the biggest price drop in used vans in the autumn as this tends to be when you asee the majority come up for sale.
It will then become a buyers market
Well you may be right but we shall see.
Second hand Cali's "Up by over 300% compared to this time last year" and "many (dealers) using up there allocation" sounds impressive but no mention of actual numbers? Unless VW increase production, dealers using up their allocations translates into shortages of supply and therefore firm second hand prices.
However as the discussion is about used Cali prices, how many have you seen for sale at what you would consider to be a sensible price?
When looking at motorhomes before buying our Cali I was also told by a dealer that there has been a rise in demand right accross the caravan, motorhome, campervan market due in part, I am sure, to the hassle attached to foriegn air travel and the numerous acts of terrorism worldwide to name but two possible reasons. Apparently, more and more of us Brits are now holidaying in the UK. With the rise in demand for new vehicles of this type there will also be a rise in demand for second hand vehicles. Not everyone can afford a new one. An extra £7k for a new one will put ownership beyond many people, so second hand, albeit a relatively expensive option, might be their only choice.
In adition, the approaching crippling changes in the VED will no doubt affect new car sales and is likely, for a short while at least, to strengthen second hand prices. There is also going to be uncertainty over how Brexit will effect the pound and correspondingly, new car prices. It may become more expensive to buy new and therefore more cost effective to buy second hand.
You may be right but it's my guess that used prices will continue to remain firm.