Where oh where did VW go wrong?

[FivetonesCali]

Volkswagen are in a proper mess aren’t they?

I’ve been putting thought to a replacement for my T6 Ocean 150. Like many of you in this thread I’ve been through the options. It’s just me mostly that uses the van, I walk and mountain bike and I have a small dog that comes with me. I wild camp mostly so don’t always use the pop top. I’d like 4WD ideally. I want an EV (to replace my T6 and my Mini SE combined).

My observations:
- The Buzz LWB could be made to work, especially in the LWB GTX (4WD) form. The pricing on these aren’t terrible either (£70k, though far from a value vehicle). The problem is the weight but also the flexibility of the interior. It doesn’t have the Cali/Caravelle/Multivan rails so a modular approach would be difficult.
- The new MV Cali - hybrid 4WD would work for me but in reality it’s an interim technology and £90k is a big commitment.
- The new T7 - it’s a Ford dressed up and if electric that might be ok in Panamericana form if they did a 4WD. The Transit Custom Nugget is £80k (PHEV) . I don’t see VW wanting to compete with themselves - the MV Cali will likely give them higher margins, a halo effect for the Multivan which doesn’t seem to be selling that well and can likely be produced in their own facilities more readily.
- For a T6 owner upgrading to a T6.1 is an option but the VED changes on newer vehicles,

End of the day the conclusion I’ve come to is to stick with my current Cali. It’s still the best option - the “Swiss Army knife”.

Generally, EV subsidies need to be reintroduced in the UK to boost sales of new vehicles and manufacturers need to commit more to supporting older EVs to shore up the residuals. (Longer battery warranty etc), and there still needs to be huge investment in the north in particular in fast EV charging infrastructure. Lastly, the long held promise of solid state batteries still looks 4-5 years off.

For VW in particular - most of the character has gone from their current offerings, they’ve dropped the ball on the EV shift and they can’t compete with subsidised Chinese EVs (tariffs could damage their Chinese sales - though their current strategy seems to close German factories and shift them to China). Arguably the Buzz, though flawed, is the only vehicle they currently offer that has any charm they should build on this and make sure they hurry on the PPE-based (the next platform after MEB) so it becomes the replacement for the T7/MV/MEB Buzz mess.

 

[Pineweasel]

T7 California is based on the VW Multivan chassis. The MV replaced the Caravelle but is based on a car platform, not the Transporter. Look at the specs for load & towing capacity. It's a longer vehicle but definitely smaller internally.

The T7 Transporter is a collaboration with Ford, hence the discussion of engineering above, just launched as a commercial van.

Interestingly VW have now dropped all mention of the confusing "T7" designation from their website and press releases for both the Cali and the new Transporter.

 

[larrylamb]

Interestingly VW have now dropped all mention of the confusing "T7" designation from their website and press releases for both the Cali and the new Transporter.

About time, confused so many people.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Volkswagen are in a proper mess aren’t they?

I’ve been putting thought to a replacement for my T6 Ocean 150. Like many of you in this thread I’ve been through the options. It’s just me mostly that uses the van, I walk and mountain bike and I have a small dog that comes with me. I wild camp mostly so don’t always use the pop top. I’d like 4WD ideally. I want an EV (to replace my T6 and my Mini SE combined).

My observations:
- The Buzz LWB could be made to work, especially in the LWB GTX (4WD) form. The pricing on these aren’t terrible either (£70k, though far from a value vehicle). The problem is the weight but also the flexibility of the interior. It doesn’t have the Cali/Caravelle/Multivan rails so a modular approach would be difficult.
- The new MV Cali - hybrid 4WD would work for me but in reality it’s an interim technology and £90k is a big commitment.
- The new T7 - it’s a Ford dressed up and if electric that might be ok in Panamericana form if they did a 4WD. The Transit Custom Nugget is £80k (PHEV) . I don’t see VW wanting to compete with themselves - the MV Cali will likely give them higher margins, a halo effect for the Multivan which doesn’t seem to be selling that well and can likely be produced in their own facilities more readily.
- For a T6 owner upgrading to a T6.1 is an option but the VED changes on newer vehicles,

End of the day the conclusion I’ve come to is to stick with my current Cali. It’s still the best option - the “Swiss Army knife”.

Generally, EV subsidies need to be reintroduced in the UK to boost sales of new vehicles and manufacturers need to commit more to supporting older EVs to shore up the residuals. (Longer battery warranty etc), and there still needs to be huge investment in the north in particular in fast EV charging infrastructure. Lastly, the long held promise of solid state batteries still looks 4-5 years off.

For VW in particular - most of the character has gone from their current offerings, they’ve dropped the ball on the EV shift and they can’t compete with subsidised Chinese EVs (tariffs could damage their Chinese sales - though their current strategy seems to close German factories and shift them to China). Arguably the Buzz, though flawed, is the only vehicle they currently offer that has any charm they should build on this and make sure they hurry on the PPE-based (the next platform after MEB) so it becomes the replacement for the T7/MV/MEB Buzz mess.

Does a SWB Crafter not appeal…?
The buzz fails down because of the fixed seating arrangement.

It’s too early to call on the Ford/Volkswagen partnership.
Might be worth re-visiting in a couple of years, to see how reliable that engine is…

 

[FivetonesCali]

Does a SWB Crafter not appeal…?
The buzz fails down because of the fixed seating arrangement.

It’s too early to call on the Ford/Volkswagen partnership.
Might be worth re-visiting in a couple of years, to see how reliable that engine is…

I had considered the smaller Crafter but it’s a touch big for me really.

What powers the Ford/VW is of concern but only in that the EV setup doesn’t look that great either (and PHEV set up is likely worst of all worlds).

 

[owen_h]

What powers the Ford/VW is of concern but only in that the EV setup doesn’t look that great either (and PHEV set up is likely worst of all worlds).

Friend of mine ha had the 2.5 PHEV in a Ford Kuga for ~ 4 years and not had any issues. Its got a good reputation for reliability and would be my engine of choice in the Ford/VW versions.
Been looking around at what would be a suitable replacement for my 2012 Beach. New Cali Coast is still on the list but the Nugget or Westfalia Club Joker Urban probably favourite at the moment. Or a conversion or electric car and micro caravan or ...... I cant decide and still like the current Beach.

 

[FivetonesCali]

Good to know @owen_h

I really hope the VW version is better than this…

https://vans.honestjohn.co.uk/owner-reviews/ford/transit-custom-phev-2024/

 

[larrylamb]

Seen a post on a FB group today from a VW campervan converter. Apparently the last of the T6.1's with tailgate are selling out fast as converters snap them up. VW dealer quoted as saying uptake on the new colab Transporter is very poor. Hang on to your T6.1/6 etc folks

 

[soulstyledevon]

Seen a post on a FB group today from a VW campervan converter. Apparently the last of the T6.1's with tailgate are selling out fast as converters snap them up. VW dealer quoted as saying uptake on the new colab Transporter is very poor. Hang on to your T6.1/6 etc folks

Give it 12 months and the T6.1 will look very tired.
I quite like the new van. Has a lot going for it.
Not seen the VW, but liked the Ford version.

 

[Jay586]

People whinged a lot going from 5 to 6 and then 6.1...

 

[larrylamb]

Give it 12 months and the T6.1 will look very tired.
I quite like the new van. Has a lot going for it.
Not seen the VW, but liked the Ford version.

Have to disagree. Would never buy one for the engine alone.

 

[FivetonesCali]

The 5.1/6/6.1 were just facelifts/updates to a much loved VW base vehicle in reality. The next vehicles are more of a challenging change for people to stomach. The principle that everyone hates a new model or facelift at first is completely true though.

People whinged a lot going from 5 to 6 and then 6.1...

 

[larrylamb]

The 5.1/6/6.1 were just facelifts/updates to a much loved VW base vehicle in reality. The next vehicles are more of a challenging change for people to stomach. The principle that everyone hates a new model or facelift at first is completely true though.

For me the new one isn't a Transporter. It's a Transit with a Transit engine with a different front end and badges. Big mistake by VW IMO. Sales figures will define whether it's a success or not. We'll see.

 

[Ch1pbutty]

For me the new one isn't a Transporter. It's a Transit with a Transit engine with a different front end and badges. Big mistake by VW IMO. Sales figures will define whether it's a success or not. We'll see.

I like the design of the new Ford as it looks like a van + transits have always been slightly wider than T5/T6.
Think it will be successful especially if they do a fully electric high top westfalia conversion! To date we have only purchased vans that have been min 9 years old as have always sold them 4/5 years later for more than original purchase price…..but a decent EV camper would tempt me into losing cash on depreciation as a smooth drive is so different to ICE/Hybrid.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

VW as a business is having a full on existential crisis. One of the foundations of German industry weirdly planning on shutting factories. How bad must their projections be and how come they don’t believe they can fix the problems. Not long ago the Golf was Europe’s best selling car.

The van issue is just a small part of it. Two weeks ago I switched 100% of my Europe pension investments to Japan and USA.

 

[WelshGas]

VW as a business is having a full on existential crisis. One of the foundations of German industry weirdly planning on shutting factories. How bad must their projections be and how come they don’t believe they can fix the problems. Not long ago the Golf was Europe’s best selling car.

The van issue is just a small part of it. Two weeks ago I switched 100% of my Europe pension investments to Japan and USA.

Very simple, as with all European car manufacturers they are being forced to sell EVs that no one wants and will be fined if they do not sell sufficient numbers, so they will reduce numbers of IC vehicles made so that the ratio of EV/IC vehicles doesn’t trigger the ridiculous fines the EU and U.K. governments threaten them with.
This means reduced production, factory closures and redundancies. The others will be following VW and Stellantis if the various governments stick to their guns, until the scale of closures and redundancies force them to reassess

 

[The Tall Luthier]

Very simple, as with all European car manufacturers they are being forced to sell EVs that no one wants and will be fined if they do not sell sufficient numbers, so they will reduce numbers of IC vehicles made so that the ratio of EV/IC vehicles doesn’t trigger the ridiculous fines the EU and U.K. governments threaten them with.
This means reduced production, factory closures and redundancies. The others will be following VW and Stellantis if the various governments stick to their guns, until the scale of closures and redundancies force them to reassess

Whilst some of this may be true, the situation is multi factorial.

VW group is a global company, its cars are sold in nearly every country worldwide, including China. However it works out that the Chinese are pretty nifty at making technology-stuff and have recently been making excellent E-Cars (BYD). VW can't compete on labour costs alone, so for a considerable period of time they will have to scale back operations to compensate for a shrinking market share. BYD is not the only new kid in town either, VINFAST is also doing very well for itself.

As for E-Cars, in the UK, they're just far too expensive, this coupled with the shocking residuals is the reason people won't choose them over ICE cars.

 

[BenCar]

My take on it is that this is a problem affecting all 'legacy'' car makers. If you follow the industry you'll see that spending a decade making 2 ton SUVs has allowed 'new' auto makers to progress in efficiency and speed of development. VW take 4 years to bring a new generation car to market and Zeekr (chinese) take 18 months. Factor in the incredible advancement of tech we're seeing is going to mean very few automakers lasting very long.

 

[FivetonesCali]

So will VW end up being just another badge on Chinese produced identikit EVs like Lotus, MG, Volvo, Mini?

 

[BenCar]

So will VW end up being just another badge on Chinese produced identikit EVs like Lotus, MG, Volvo, Mini?

Well I guess there will be some rationalisation of companies (and a culling of brands). See Honda and Nissan attempted merger last week. Stellantis in trouble and obvs VW group. The ones with the best tech will last longest.

The current VW tech is fairly old and they've nothing new coming this year which is disastrous as they need to be iterating quickly. I think Mercedes is innovating quickly, not sure about BMW.

China is currently negotiating with the EU over 'fair' access to the EU car market which is going to be pretty important.

 

[Flower Power]

We love our 6.1 Ocean but would not contemplate taking it for 3 weeks of camping. Might stop for 3-5 nights in between Airbnb or hotels. But wouldn’t use it as the only accommodation.

Agree 100% and that is how we are using our Cali

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Agree 100% and that is how we are using our Cali

It’s what we do every summer. 4 of us. Fabulous times forming fabulous family memories.
Horses for courses.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Very simple, as with all European car manufacturers they are being forced to sell EVs that no one wants and will be fined if they do not sell sufficient numbers, so they will reduce numbers of IC vehicles made so that the ratio of EV/IC vehicles doesn’t trigger the ridiculous fines the EU and U.K. governments threaten them with.
This means reduced production, factory closures and redundancies. The others will be following VW and Stellantis if the various governments stick to their guns, until the scale of closures and redundancies force them to reassess

I don’t understand why they can’t make competitive EVs. My BMW i3 clearly has very few parts. I know ‘its the battery stupid!’ that costs the money but surely those are getting cheaper?

Porsche seem to be doing it. Different prices I suppose.

Stellantis and others have always cried wolf in order to get govt subsidies. Been doing that for decades.

 

[Ian in Leicester]

Give it 12 months and the T6.1 will look very tired.
I quite like the new van. Has a lot going for it.
Not seen the VW, but liked the Ford version.

This is why I opted for the new California Ocean even though I love the T6.1. As a couple there is plenty of space in the new van and it definitely feels much more premium (if that bothers you). Better fuel economy is important for me as well. Slightly annoying that you can't fit a bike rack but tow bar is better anyway - but expensive. The pop top slider is much better and seats swivel much more easily. Twin sliding doors etc... I think people will take to it in time, but the good thing is we all have the choice.

 

[FivetonesCali]

At least when the German tax payer subsidises they take a stake in the company…

The i3 is a good example of EV economics. Arguably that particular vehicle is still cutting edge today (lightweight carbon fibre, well CFRP, monocoque, excellent battery management, novel design). However, it was allegedly sold at a loss by BMW as a technology demonstration at production volumes. The price was still high and sales not particularly stellar. It is a future classic though imo.

Now battery prices have come down significantly, one issue is that automotive manufacturers don’t’ want to undermine their ICE market. Again, arguably they are all complicit in the slowing of transition - governments lose tax revenue, would have to accept lower economic growth figures over a politically relevant period, and fossil fuel companies and auto manufacturers would have to face climate change economics in environmentally relevant timescales. The european automotive industry is also behind in technology.

The Chinese, and to a lesser extent, the South Korean governments have faced this challenge 5 or more years earlier than Europe and their government subsidies are huge which has boosted the tech and gives us artificially cheaper pricing for their vehicles. This distorts the market (which @BenCar references above).

The bottom line is that there’s a reckoning upon VAG now for not moving quickly enough, for not having good enough tech (including VW’s CARIAD software), and for Europe not subsidising the companies enough. The German car industry is in real danger of going down the tubes like the British car industry did in the 70s/80s. The next few years will get very interesting.