Bubble about to burst

[CaliforniaBen]

I thought it was only so long we would see these crazy used Cali prices , i notice a lot are now hanging around and we are seeing reductions, looks like it could turn into a buyers market over the autumn

 

[The Blue Merle]

£60k for a 19 plate beach, £73&75k 4motion 19 plate cali. I think it’s a long way off popping!!!!

 

[itsSteve]

I've not been watching that closely but, covid notwithstanding, there's usually a drop in interest as the school holidays end and the evenings get shorter. Given the PX price that I've been offered, guaranteed against a Spring 2022 delivery, the trade clearly expects secondhand prices to pick up again next year

 

[two-saabs]

£60k for a 19 plate beach, £73&75k 4motion 19 plate cali. I think it’s a long way off popping!!!!

Are these the "sold for" or "asking for" prices?

Asking prices can ask for whatever they want, and can even determine the market, but only to a point (until somebody breaks from the group and reduces)

 

[Shuftie]

We had a pretty low spec 2018 Beach (satnav, cruise, parking sensors, awning) with 13k on the clock, that we sold to WBAC for about 8k more than we bought it for. Motorway indicated they could get about 2k more but that turned out not to be true when it actually went into one of their auctions.

Could we have held on for a private sale and secured that extra 2k? Perhaps, but my feeling was that it was unlikely; our beach was not cosmetically perfect, and missing the all-important heater, so I doubt we could have achieved 'top book' prices. I was happy with the offer from WBAC, and even managed to bid them up £325 against the motorway 'offer' - so they're still keen to get stock.

IMHO the market is still strong, but does seem to be cooling off WRT private sales.

We're happy enough with the deal we got, that has enabled us to trade up to a new Coast.

 

[two-saabs]

We had a pretty low spec 2018 Beach (satnav, cruise, parking sensors, awning) with 13k on the clock, that we sold to WBAC for about 8k more than we bought it for. Motorway indicated they could get about 2k more but that turned out not to be true when it actually went into one of their auctions.

Could we have held on for a private sale and secured that extra 2k? Perhaps, but my feeling was that it was unlikely; our beach was not cosmetically perfect, and missing the all-important heater, so I doubt we could have achieved 'top book' prices. I was happy with the offer from WBAC, and even managed to bid them up £325 against the motorway 'offer' - so they're still keen to get stock.

IMHO the market is still strong, but does seem to be cooling off WRT private sales.

We're happy enough with the deal we got, that has enabled us to trade up to a new Coast.

That's a good news story for a rainy Monday! Nice one

 

[Peter Bucknell]

I thought it was only so long we would see these crazy used Cali prices , i notice a lot are now hanging around and we are seeing reductions, looks like it could turn into a buyers market over the autumn

It has not happened yet if my experience is anything to go by. I put my Ocean up for sale on this site 2 weeks ago. I was inundated with enquiries from all over the country, had 3 people come to view, all of which made me an offer and the van was sold within 3 days for asking price. That tells me the market is still hot and not likely to slow down anytime soon. The vans that hang around are chancers who advertise them at an "aspirational" and hopelessly unrealistic price. We've all seen them.

 

[Karlos]

The market will IMO correct when people can travel freely world wide and when purchase plans are about to mature possibly increasing second hand stock.

 

[pumpsmynads]

3 year old versions of my vehicle with 30k miles are £10k more than i paid brand new 3 months ago.
As Karlos says, once people can fly freely back to their favourite places, or villas, there’ll likely be a correction to the market.

 

[OGII]

Summer being over may slow demand but given the long lead times on new orders, the ever increasing VW prices and relative scarcity I can't see prices plummeting any time soon.

Next summer will still see cautious people wanting the flexibility of their own travel bubble and if high numbers of advance bookings for "proper" holidays as reported today are true it could be that staycation/ camper type trips will be just as popular next year as other options may be sold out. A decent percentage of the recent converts to van life will stick with it, just as many of us do, supplementing van trips with exotic trips.

Older campers based on decent vans always bottom out at prices that seem silly. The high mileage T4 Autosleeper bought for a big premium this year may well fall back to its "normal" price and dodgy diy conversions of courier vans may well see big falls but I can't see the Cali prices dropping to bargain prices just yet.

As discussed before for many of us the prices we paid for our new vans circa three years back look like peanuts compared to new list prices so holding onto a euro6 recent van is a no brainer. I wouldn't want to find the difference for minimal updates or improvements.

 

[bagel.rhodes]

I've not been watching that closely but, covid notwithstanding, there's usually a drop in interest as the school holidays end and the evenings get shorter. Given the PX price that I've been offered, guaranteed against a Spring 2022 delivery, the trade clearly expects secondhand prices to pick up again next year

Interested in your comment about spring delivery. was this for new van from VW. I’ve ordered my Beach 22nd July and still no news on build date or any progress, appreciate they have had a break.

 

[pcevanrulo]

aren't price fluctuations a seasonal thing? going into winter time the prices drop a bit and when spring arrives and the first good sunshine prices will rise again? Just like motorcycles.
We are in The NL and I think the trend is the same. A 2020 Cali is only up to 5% cheaper than a brand new one. And even a used 2021 Cali ex-rental is more expensive than what we payed for our new (to be delivered next week) Cali, just because it is available now.

 

[Ozzy Pete]

aren't price fluctuations a seasonal thing? going into winter time the prices drop a bit and when spring arrives and the first good sunshine prices will rise again? Just like motorcycles.
We are in The NL and I think the trend is the same. A 2020 Cali is only up to 5% cheaper than a brand new one. And even a used 2021 Cali ex-rental is more expensive than what we payed for our new (to be delivered next week) Cali, just because it is available now.

It’s the old adage of supply and demand. VW are not going to up production and flood the market. They love it when their products are in demand it’s good for them, it’s good for owners but it’s not so good if you are looking to buy. As soon as Covid is limited then most will go back to their 2 weeks in Benidorm and motorhome, caravan and campervan sales will probably be the same as pre Covid times. I have to admit That holidaying in a Camper in the UK is not the same as the south of France and Spain. Well not for us anyway and must admit I’ve really missed it.

 

[itsSteve]

Interested in your comment about spring delivery. was this for new van from VW. I’ve ordered my Beach 22nd July and still no news on build date or any progress, appreciate they have had a break.

Hope to get our new GC "in the spring", having ordered it mid-June. The dealer offered a guaranteed price and said that if VW came up with a better offer in the meantime, he'd match that. I'm calling in to the dealers next week, so if I get any update, I'll post details

 

[jMacdent]

Interested in your comment about spring delivery. was this for new van from VW. I’ve ordered my Beach 22nd July and still no news on build date or any progress, appreciate they have had a break.

You’re unlikely to move from Status 00 for 3-4 months. You’ll then probably get provisional build dates (status 10) which will fluctuate back and forth for a couple of months before going to confirmed (status 20) 6-8 weeks before actual build. I wouldn’t start holding your breath until the new year. I’ve got a Beach on order too (July 7th) this time round!