Covid 19 Vaccination and International Travel.

[WelshGas]

So, the end game is insight with a number of apparently safe and effective vaccinations awaiting approval.
But what will this mean for International Travel as with the coming of Covid 19 Vaccines we also see a rise in the " Antivax Conspiracy Brigade ".
How will International Travel increase.
Will countries just accept your word?.
Will you need a Paper Certificate, easily forged, or something more secure?
Will you require some form of antibody test?
Will countries insist on quarantine until they have completed their own Vaccination Programmes to protect their own citizens?

Or something different eg: Travel Insurance that specifically excludes medical treatment for Covid 19 unless you have the Vaccination, as it would appear vaccination stops you getting infected and if you are you don't require hospitalisation..

Any thoughts?

 

[Romke]

For some strange reason you can travel to Spain by plane or ferry as long as you can prove at arrival that you don't have C19 (a 72-hour recent test is required) but you can enter the country without checks if you travel by car.

 

[Jester]

So, the end game is insight with a number of apparently safe and effective vaccinations awaiting approval.
But what will this mean for International Travel as with the coming of Covid 19 Vaccines we also see a rise in the " Antivax Conspiracy Brigade ".
How will International Travel increase.
Will countries just accept your word?.
Will you need a Paper Certificate, easily forged, or something more secure?
Will you require some form of antibody test?
Will countries insist on quarantine until they have completed their own Vaccination Programmes to protect their own citizens?

Or something different eg: Travel Insurance that specifically excludes medical treatment for Covid 19 unless you have the Vaccination, as it would appear vaccination stops you getting infected and if you are you don't require hospitalisation..

Any thoughts?

I'm sure it will not be easy in Auss, rightly so.

 

[WelshGas]

I'm sure it will not be easy in Auss, rightly so.

Fortunately they have a smaller population to vaccinate.

 

[Velma's Dad]

There has been a (sort of) equivalent for many years, ie the international yellow fever vaccination certificate. A lot of countries used to require you to carry when you enter and I think a few still do which is why I still hold onto mine.

It was/is a standard WHO format "International Certificate of Vaccination or Prophylaxis" and although mainly used for YF specifically, it can have any type of vaccination listed. It used to be a flimsy form but is actually a little yellow booklet nowadays. (Unlike the example below mine has the actual vaccine labels affixed and proper stamps).



Yes it could be forged but presumably for most people it would be simpler just to get the jab and a genuine certificate?

 

[Jester]

Fortunately they have a smaller population to vaccinate.

Wonder when they will let us in.

 

[WelshGas]

Wonder when they will let us in.

Personally, mid 2021 onwards, unless they accept some form of Vaccine Certificate before then.

 

[Romke]

Yes it could be forged but presumably for most people it would be simpler just to get the jab and a genuine certificate?

You're more likely to get a QR code to store on your phone.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Anyone who’s travelled a lot over the last 20 years will have had many different vaccinations for various reasons.
To be honest, I’ve been fine with all of them, except the strange little pills for malaria. Didn’t like them much.

Just add Covid to the list...

 

[WelshGas]

There has been a (sort of) equivalent for many years, ie the international yellow fever vaccination certificate. A lot of countries used to require you to carry when you enter and I think a few still do which is why I still hold onto mine.

It was/is a standard WHO format "International Certificate of Vaccination or Prophylaxis" and although mainly used for YF specifically, it can have any type of vaccination listed. It used to be a flimsy form but is actually a little yellow booklet nowadays. (Unlike the example below mine has the actual vaccine labels affixed and proper stamps).

View attachment 69888

Yes it could be forged but presumably for most people it would be simpler just to get the jab and a genuine certificate?

Unfortunately, with most illnesses that have a vaccine available, when you are infected you are ill/symptomatic. With Covid 19, that is not the case for a substantial number of people who are infected, asymptomatic but able to infect others easily.
So a Certificate that can be forged can be extremely dangerous.

 

[Velma's Dad]

So a Certificate that can be forged can be extremely dangerous.

Looked at another way, the IFR for YF is ten times that of covid so forging YF certificates is much more dangerous. If the odd few people do forge and use covid certificates then that would undermine the effectiveness of a scheme to some extent, however the great majority of people are decent folks who wouldn't dream of doing so.

Playing with numbers just for fun... let's say 1% of all travellers travelled without having been vaccinated, by means of a forged chitty. Of those, only a very small percentage would presumably be incubating or infectious at the time they travelled, let's say 1% of them (which would be three times the current UK community levels of the virus at present, but let's say the forgers tended to be young reckless party animals so more likely than average to be infectious).

On that basis, a certification scheme, even if not perfect, would be 99.99% effective in preventing cross border transmission. One covid plague rat person in about 60 Ryanair planeloads would 'slip through'.

That might not be enough for a covid-free country like NZ, but for most purposes would surely be good enough?

Other than that maybe the covid jab should be engineered to leave a distinctive skin mark like the huge craters left by those old jabs we used to get when we were kids (showing my age).

 

[marchugo]

Unfortunately, until now we don't know anything about the effects of the coming vaccines. How long will they work? Will they only prevent that I can be infected, and secondly prevent too that I can be infectious to others? (which are different things).
There are only some press bulletins, no scientific peer group opinions.

But: if about 70 percent of the population has been successfully vaccinated, than there's no need for a certificate anymore.

Marc.

 

[WelshGas]

Unfortunately, until now we don't know anything about the effects of the coming vaccines. How long will they work? Will they only prevent that I can be infected, and secondly prevent too that I can be infectious to others? (which are different things).
There are only some press bulletins, no scientific peer group opinions.

But: if about 70 percent of the population has been successfully vaccinated, than there's no need for a certificate anymore.

Marc.

But that has to be 70%+ of the country you plan to visit and with long haul holidays that could be problematic in some countries. USA, India are just 2 countries where it wouldn't matter at the moment. Australia and New Zealand it would although with their smaller populations they would probably be able to get to 70%+ before us.

 

[sbmcd]

If I was a conspiracy theorist I would say an implant chip would be the answer, bit like a dog chip

 

[willwander]

Personally I have nothing against it.
However, I’m a bit of a libertarian, so it does raise a debate and proof of vax for travel may be a slippery slope, do we then extend to other things, proof of vax for health insurance, mortgage, employment etc.

 

[sbmcd]

Personally I have nothing against it.
However, I’m a bit of a libertarian, so it does raise a debate and proof of vax for travel may be a slippery slope, do we then extend to other things, proof of vax for health insurance, mortgage, employment etc.

A very slippery slope indeed.

 

[AlisonF]

Many professional workers have been travelling to and from the UK during the whole lock down since March. The ones I know locally (direct neighbours) have not had to quarantine. But were tested most days whilst working overseas.
Another friend travelling back to Europe after a 3 year posting, was not required to have a test before travelling, but did so anyway and had documentation with him in case his flight was cancelled, delayed or diverted (many have been due to reduced numbers flying and airlines cancelling flights with no notice)... so there a lot of variables to think about.

 

[barry]

Publicised information on the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine trials has raised a number of 'red flags' over the last couple of days which might suggest plans on its use are seriously premature.
The paper in Wired by Hilda Bastian earlier today pulls these together and gives a full clear explanation about what the problems might be. She is a skilled analyst of health care intervention claims.
I thought it might be useful to provide a link to this paper ...

The AstraZeneca Covid Vaccine Data Isn't Up to Snuff

There's been even more good news this week, this time from the Oxford-AstraZeneca trials. But a closer look reveals some very shaky science.

www.wired.com

 

[Wogga]

I don't think it will stop at travel, workplaces may introduce Covid vaccination for their employees, probably driven by the insurance companies to prevent claims from employees claiming they caught the virus at work! Where there's blame there is a claim. In a post Covid world I am sure it will be a major insurance consideration.

I came from an industry where certain vaccinations were mandatory due to the nature of the work, no vax no job. H&S over ruled human rights etc. No shortage of candidates looking for work and accepting the rules.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Publicised information on the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine trials has raised a number of 'red flags' over the last couple of days which might suggest plans on its use are seriously premature.
The paper in Wired by Hilda Bastian earlier today pulls these together and gives a full clear explanation about what the problems might be. She is a skilled analyst of health care intervention claims.
I thought it might be useful to provide a link to this paper ...

The AstraZeneca Covid Vaccine Data Isn't Up to Snuff

There's been even more good news this week, this time from the Oxford-AstraZeneca trials. But a closer look reveals some very shaky science.

www.wired.com

That's a pretty disturbing article shows the risks of medicine-by-press-release. If the FDA declines to licence the Oxford-AZN vaccine without a new, unified, phase three trial, that would quite likely scupper its public acceptance in the UK even if MHRA approved it.

I tend to be a natural optimist but still I'm not booking a venue for my end-of-covid party any time soon.

 

[Wogga]

That's a pretty disturbing article shows the risks of medicine-by-press-release. If the FDA declines to licence the Oxford-AZN vaccine without a new, unified, phase three trial, that would quite likely scupper its public acceptance in the UK even if MHRA approved it.

I tend to be a natural optimist but still I'm not booking a venue for my end-of-covid party any time soon.

I am optimistic, but also a cynic the report I see it as a drug company war about where you should spend the dollar. Preserving the business discredit the opposition. You just have to look at the recent election at how good our friends across the pond at producing convincing reports and narrative to convince people which way to turn. I'd trust a UK bunch of scientists before a US one any day. Still doesn't need -80 to store.

 

[Anthony1]

There has been a (sort of) equivalent for many years, ie the international yellow fever vaccination certificate. A lot of countries used to require you to carry when you enter and I think a few still do which is why I still hold onto mine.

It was/is a standard WHO format "International Certificate of Vaccination or Prophylaxis" and although mainly used for YF specifically, it can have any type of vaccination listed. It used to be a flimsy form but is actually a little yellow booklet nowadays. (Unlike the example below mine has the actual vaccine labels affixed and proper stamps).

View attachment 69888

Yes it could be forged but presumably for most people it would be simpler just to get the jab and a genuine certificate?

When travelling in the 70's overland to Singapore, we had to have and show our Small Pox, Polio, Hepatitus and other vacinations in a similar certificate. We also had yellow Fever jabs although you only needed them if you came from a country that had Yellow Fever.

 

[Anthony1]

If I was a conspiracy theorist I would say an implant chip would be the answer, bit like a dog chip

I'm sure that is in the pipeline somewhere. Some companies already chip their staff (volutarily at the moment), so they can open security doors, use drinks machines, unlock computers etc. I just wonder if they can see where you go after work.

 

[Anthony1]

Looked at another way, the IFR for YF is ten times that of covid so forging YF certificates is much more dangerous. If the odd few people do forge and use covid certificates then that would undermine the effectiveness of a scheme to some extent, however the great majority of people are decent folks who wouldn't dream of doing so.

Playing with numbers just for fun... let's say 1% of all travellers travelled without having been vaccinated, by means of a forged chitty. Of those, only a very small percentage would presumably be incubating or infectious at the time they travelled, let's say 1% of them (which would be three times the current UK community levels of the virus at present, but let's say the forgers tended to be young reckless party animals so more likely than average to be infectious).

On that basis, a certification scheme, even if not perfect, would be 99.99% effective in preventing cross border transmission. One covid plague rat person in about 60 Ryanair planeloads would 'slip through'.

That might not be enough for a covid-free country like NZ, but for most purposes would surely be good enough?

Other than that maybe the covid jab should be engineered to leave a distinctive skin mark like the huge craters left by those old jabs we used to get when we were kids (showing my age).

...like the huge craters left by those old jabs we used to get when we were kids (showing my age).

BCG.

 

[willwander]