Residuals dropping

[Billy]

I have been monitoring used Cali prices over the last few months and have noticed prices appear to be dropping. Various dealers have been reducing prices on some of their stock, I assume this is because there is quite a lot available. Also private classifieds Cali's seem to no longer be selling unless they are very competitively priced. I assume the change has occurred for various reasons, be it roof corrosion, T6 manual gearbox problems, Marco Polo etc. Also I suspect now the T6 is in full flow there is a lot more stock around.

Let's hope prices don't drop too far.

 

[Borris]

What T6 manual gearbox problems?

 

[Victor]

What T6 manual gearbox problems?

I think it is only the 204ps

 

[DM]

The value of something only matters if you intend to sell. And no one should buy a motor vehicle as an investment (vintage models excepted). Enjoy your pride and joy whilst you have it and worry about its value when the time comes.

 

[2into1]

I have been monitoring used Cali prices over the last few months and have noticed prices appear to be dropping. Various dealers have been reducing prices on some of their stock, I assume this is because there is quite a lot available. Also private classifieds Cali's seem to no longer be selling unless they are very competitively priced. I assume the change has occurred for various reasons, be it roof corrosion, T6 manual gearbox problems, Marco Polo etc. Also I suspect now the T6 is in full flow there is a lot more stock around.

Let's hope prices don't drop too far.

I think you are right. I would have expected to see things moving faster now there are signs of Spring. I think pricing is an issue. List prices have increased so much in the last few years. Even though owners selling earlier vans can virtually get back all of what they paid for their van, there is a huge gap to fund the replacement. Odd vans are popping up with great prices, others look to be taking the micky based on the lead time and duty changes.

I think the blow from T6 roof corrosion shouldn't be under estimated (for those who research before they buy). The fact that VW have launched a new model with the same fault that first appeared in 2006 (ish) has made the issue look a whole lot more serious.

Edit: and the worries / continuing uncertainty about the causes / extent of the 180hp engine's oil cooler must be spreading. 180s form a huge part of Cali population, vs "converters" vans where they are virtually unknown.

 

[Meoncoast]

I loved our 180 DSG and being 2012 and until recently thought that the oil high all use and engine failure was on pre 2012 vans. We traded in without any high high oil use at + 60k on the clock. Just after trading in lots of chatter on forums re there being an issue with the EGR on t5 180 engines. In recent weeks I would ask the question who would risk buying a 180 van at the moment esp on a private sale without a warranty?
Many private sale Cali's are as much or more than the odd older van you see for sale at VW dealers.

I would also say you would loose more on a conversion which are harder to price.


If prices drop for new owners they will have fun for less. To many people what too much for a second hand van

 

[jess]

Friends of ours wanted to buy a California so we pointed them here for more information, all they read was the bad stuff and how poorly owners are treated by VW so they decided to look at alternatives. I realise forums normally have just the bad stuff and the grass is not always greener on the other side but I just wonder how many other people view this forum without posting who had their heart set on a Cali and then ended up buying something else. We also purchased our Cali at this time of year and there was hardly anything available when we were looking but I notice at the moment there are loads for sale both private and by dealers. Lets hope prices do not fall any further as we plan to sell next year.

 

[Loz]

THAT is exactly why I asked for these threads to be moved out of the general chat area!

 

[Digger]

The negativity in many posts would put off most and perhaps deny them of the real pleasure in owning a California. If some are unhappy maybe they should sell and move on. Its a short life we have on this planet and I for one would rather be positive and enjoy my time.

 

[GrannyJen]

If all the negativity on this forum has depressed sales of California's so badly why are people having to wait months for a new one?

I have just scratched my bi-monthly "shall I or shan't I trade in" itch, had interest expressed from quite a few places regarding Albert then looked at current waiting times and decided the wait was not worth it.

Residuals may be dropping but given the cries of "second hand vehicles are at ridiculous prices" for the last couple of years perhaps they are dropping to where they should be from where they were inflated to by the stuttering introduction of the T6.

 

[fatty thumb]

Maybe if vw are reading this the maybe they will take note that they are losing sales due to the inability to fix major problems. Maybe if they are hit in the pocket they may act,But as Jen says no shortage of buyers for new ones.

 

[WelshGas]

Just wait until the new VED comes into force. At the moment owners have unloaded their T5's to fund the purchase of the new T6. I wouldn't be at all surprised that post 1st April prices firm up for 2nd hand Californias. As far as the 180 is concerned then you can always trade in and let the Dealer sort it out.
Most of the buying public don't seem that concerned about residuals when it comes to a vehicle purchase except of course California Owners.
Virtually every make has a website where owners vent their fury about problems with their vehicles. There are over 9,000 members of this Forum. If even 50% have a T5/T6 and these problems were so common then I would expect a lot more individual posters, and don't forget there are probably a lot of happy owners who don't post or who aren't even members.
And finally, a vehicle is only worth what the buyer thinks, not the seller and unfortunately some sellers have an inflated idea of their vehicles worth in the real world.

Just my personal opinion.

 

[Meoncoast]

If some are unhappy maybe they should sell and move on.

and stop visiting the forum and stirring up.
Lets hope with spring around the corner people will get out and about more in their camper vans and post some great trip posts and positives.

 

[sidepod]

Maybe if vw are reading this the maybe they will take note that they are losing sales due to the inability to fix major problems. Maybe if they are hit in the pocket they may act,But as Jen says no shortage of buyers for new ones.

Ha ha ha , Almost fell of my chair laughing!!

 

[Victor]

I think the days are numbered to when you could buy a brand new Cali and sell it for the same money a year later, residuals will always be good on the California but they are falling now. There is a hell of a lot of used stock out there at the moment and the only ones that seem to be selling are the ones that are priced correctly.

 

[pjm-84]

The price may be dropping but used stock on the VW website is low in comparison to what it was a few years ago.

Markets = supply and demand. Less demand will equate to a price drop. The reduced demand can be linked to numerous factors but I don't believe this to do with the VAG issues as they have always been there.

 

[Richardmk]

Possibly the result of residuals becoming more realistic and not over inflated by lack of supply? It it was a result of VAG issues, then sales of new vans should be dropping instead of increasing year on year (606 Oceans sold in the U.K. Last year.)

The leisure vehicle market in general is seeing growth in new sales, fuelled by changes in pensions. If these potential customers are opting to pay more for a new vehicle then this would impact on used sales


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[MattBW]

It's also seasonal so I don't think you can know until you have observed the whole year. Come spring and bit of sunshine everyone will want a camper and demand rockets.

Seen the same with our old vans, and with motorbikes too. Autumn winter always sees a dip in demand for this kind of product.

 

[snowy55]

THAT is exactly why I asked for these threads to be moved out of the general chat area!

As a child I was raised to be honest and open and I carry those values in my adult life.
Burying bad news is never a good idea, it will catch up with you sooner or later.
Can I ask admin to keep the bad news threads in the general chat threads please.

 

[jts46]

As a child I was raised to be honest and open and I carry those values in my adult life.
Burying bad news is never a good idea, it will catch up with you sooner or later.
Can I ask admin to keep the bad news threads in the general chat threads please.

Entirely agree with @snowy55

 

[Loz]

As a child I was raised to be honest and open and I carry those values in my adult life.
Burying bad news is never a good idea, it will catch up with you sooner or later.
Can I ask admin to keep the bad news threads in the general chat threads please.

Its not about burying anything, just put any of the terms into google and they pop up, just less in your face, that's all.
I have every sympathy with the problem and I expect to have to deal with it in due course, but I'm just not getting hysterical over it and there is a perfectly suitable topic area in the elevating roofs section they could live thats all I said.

 

[JonnieBoy]

For what it's worth i don't believe residuals have been hit hardly at all. In my mind there are reasons as to why one might perceive this to be the case though. The main being the not insignificant price rises that have been implemented over the last 12 months or so. For example, the launch price of a base T6 150 DSG Ocean in 2015 was quoted at £49,621, it's now £51,846 - a rise of nearly £2,225. And the out going list price for the equivalent T5 SE 140 DSG was £47,867 that's just shy of £4K less than the current T6. So when you compare the prices of second hand vehicles make sure you compare them to the cost when they were new and i think you'll find they are still holding up pretty well. Particularly when dealer discounts have also been taken into account.
I've just done a like for like price comparison on my own vehicle and comparing the May 2016 price list to the current one, if i was buying it new today it would cost me nearly £2.5k more for the same vehicle - that's in just six months.
Also regarding numbers available there are currently 29 listed on VW's website, there were over 50 a couple of weeks ago - the number being swelled by VW releasing it's press/courtesy fleet into the dealer network and most of those have now been snapped up (typically vans with KX prefix registrations).
Yes there may be one or two hanging around and even being dropped in price but i can tell you that having scoured the country for close to four months looking for a Cali there are a few 'less than pristine' examples out there and it's those that i still see being advertised.

 

[MrP]

The second hand market for VW campers is and always will be difficult to read. Tracking my van (2008 year) over the past few months has noticed a £10k 'for sale' price difference between similar mileage and condition vans. This doesn't happen in the normal car / van world.
A number of reasons have been already mentioned why values fluctuate. There are a couple of others that spring to mind:
1. Market is becoming saturated
2. Conversion companies are reducing prices and increasing quality due to the increase of competition. These companies originally made huge profits by basing the price in comparison with a cali, they now have competition to factor in as well.
3. The new values are going up. However, most folk don't have the funds to by nearly new still so price falls to get the nearly new second hand sales up.

 

[jts46]

The second hand market for VW campers is and always will be difficult to read. Tracking my van (2008 year) over the past few months has noticed a £10k 'for sale' price difference between similar mileage and condition vans. This doesn't happen in the normal car / van world.
A number of reasons have been already mentioned why values fluctuate. There are a couple of others that spring to mind:
1. Market is becoming saturated
2. Conversion companies are reducing prices and increasing quality due to the increase of competition. These companies originally made huge profits by basing the price in comparison with a cali, they now have competition to factor in as well.
3. The new values are going up. However, most folk don't have the funds to by nearly new still so price falls to get the nearly new second hand sales up.

So how much is mine worth?????

 

[MrP]

So how much is mine worth?????

Look at Parkers + £10k and hope no one inspects the roof