Are prices due to crash?

[Amarillo]

I was browsing through some old photos and found a screenshot of a WeBuyAnyCar.com valuation from March 2018.

It gave my T6 Beach first registered March 2017 with 25,000 miles on the clock a valuation of £28,730.

A new valuation with 63,000 miles on the clock is £30,315.

My vehicle is gaining £500 per year in value, or 4p per mile.

I must drive more...

 

[soulstyledevon]

Staggering really.
Is it worth upgrading with residual values being so good for California owners...?

 

[sidepod]

Have you factored in the £10k delta between what they quote online to what they would actually give you on the day?

 

[Cali Phillip]

Interesting valuation for sure vs the forum sales page, up to £10K. ( maybe £20k with the mentioned delta)

 

[Tarquers]

Seems all of the sellers on AutoScout24 also believe in negative depreciation. Bought new cheaper than I could buy second hand.

 

[Amarillo]

Staggering really.
Is it worth upgrading with residual values being so good for California owners...?

No - our van is a keeper. It would cost ~£30,000 to replace with a T6.1 Beach Tour. We always intended Amarillo to be a family vehicle for about 10 years, until the boys reach early teens.

 

[Amarillo]

Have you factored in the £10k delta between what they quote online to what they would actually give you on the day?

If I do, £28,700 = £18,700 in March 2018. £30,315 = £20,315 in March 2021. Depreciation is still -£1,615 or a £538 gain per year or a 4.25p gain per mile.

 

[B J G]

I was browsing through some old photos and found a screenshot of a WeBuyAnyCar.com valuation from March 2018.

It gave my T6 Beach first registered March 2017 with 25,000 miles on the clock a valuation of £28,730.

A new valuation with 63,000 miles on the clock is £30,315.

My vehicle is gaining £500 per year in value, or 4p per mile.

I must drive more...

View attachment 74431

View attachment 74432

I always consider the true depreciation figure as what the cost will be to change from your existing vehicle to the same vehicle new.
eg in March 2016 the Cali cost £55,000. now valued at £40,000
New Cali March 2021 £70,000.
£30,000 needed to put back to same position as in 2016.

If not replacing then depreciation can be counted as purchase price minus sale price, with virtually zero interest rates now loss of potential earnings by saving the money can be disregarded.

Cali is currently, like all campers & motorhomes, proving to be amongst the slowest to depreciate.
A good thing given the current ability to use.

just notional figures used.

 

[Velma's Dad]

If I do, £28,700 = £18,700 in March 2018. £30,315 = £20,315 in March 2021. Depreciation is still -£1,615 or a £538 gain per year or a 4.25p gain per mile.

Ah but you haven't adjusted for inflation. If you're looking at investments it's usual to look at real valuations, not nominal. UK inflation very roughly 4% over past two years, that narrows your gain.

But you're still ahead, hooray... although not by comparison with most capital assets eg world stock markets (MSCI World Index in GBP) up 30%+ in same period.

 

[Amarillo]

I always consider the true depreciation figure as what the cost will be to change from your existing vehicle to the same vehicle new.
eg in March 2016 the Cali cost £55,000. now valued at £40,000
New Cali March 2021 £70,000.
£30,000 needed to put back to same position as in 2016.

If not replacing then depreciation can be counted as purchase price minus sale price, with virtually zero interest rates now loss of potential earnings by saving the money can be disregarded.

Cali is currently, like all campers & motorhomes, proving to be amongst the slowest to depreciate.
A good thing given the current ability to use.

just notional figures used.

I agree.

We paid £42,222 for Amarillo in March 2017.

A replacement T6.1 with similar spec and same 17% discount would be £56,750.

On that basis, using the recent WBAC.com valuation, Amarillo has lost £11,907 in value since March 2017 (a modest £2,977 per year or 18.9p per mile) and replacement cost would be £26,435 (a hefty £6,610 per year or hideous 42p per mile).

What I did (which has little real world benefit other than a bit of fun) was compare two WBAC.com valuations three years apart and came up with a theoretical negative depreciation.

The actual cost of owning and keeping a California Beach is high at over £6,500 per year.

 

[Amarillo]

Ah but you haven't adjusted for inflation. If you're looking at investments it's usual to look at real valuations, not nominal. UK inflation very roughly 4% over past two years, that narrows your gain.

But you're still ahead, hooray... although not by comparison with most capital assets eg world stock markets (MSCI World Index in GBP) up 30%+ in same period.

Yes - I should have sold Amarillo for £28,000 in March 2018 and bought 5 Bitcoin instead. Had I done so I would now have ~£200,000.

 

[andyinluton]

Yes - I should have sold Amarillo for £28,000 in March 2018 and bought 5 Bitcoin instead. Had I done so I would now have ~£200,000.

Even a 340 BMW touring would be preferable to a Bitcoin for camping in.

 

[willwander]

Ah but you haven't adjusted for inflation. If you're looking at investments it's usual to look at real valuations, not nominal. UK inflation very roughly 4% over past two years, that narrows your gain.

But you're still ahead, hooray... although not by comparison with most capital assets eg world stock markets (MSCI World Index in GBP) up 30%+ in same period.

Agree, and in my opinion CPI is a sham, not least because it doesn't account for HPI

Cali is still a liability rather than an asset

Tesla shares have outperformed Bitcoin, up 1166% since March 2018
You'd have £326k if you'd bought £28k of TSLA

 

[5i1ver8ack]

Yes - I should have sold Amarillo for £28,000 in March 2018 and bought 5 Bitcoin instead. Had I done so I would now have ~£200,000.

Don't even start to think about that!

If in July 2017 I'd bought Bitcoin instead of the Cali, I'd now have £1,076,115.28!

 

[Wildcamper]

Assuming this negative depreciation is true in the real world, how sustainable is it? Current times are not normal, especially holidays. As and when some resemblance of normality returns might there be a surplus supply of leisure vehicles available? As with all "investments" it's a gamble. If it's right for you do it.

 

[reserves]

I agree.

We paid £42,222 for Amarillo in March 2017.

A replacement T6.1 with similar spec and same 17% discount would be £56,750.

On that basis, using the recent WBAC.com valuation, Amarillo has lost £11,907 in value since March 2017 (a modest £2,977 per year or 18.9p per mile) and replacement cost would be £26,435 (a hefty £6,610 per year or hideous 42p per mile).

What I did (which has little real world benefit other than a bit of fun) was compare two WBAC.com valuations three years apart and came up with a theoretical negative depreciation.

The actual cost of owning and keeping a California Beach is high at over £6,500 per year.

Interesting, but highly doubtful 17% discount is achievable now, seems more like 12%

 

[SusiBus]

Interesting, but highly doubtful 17% discount is achievable now, seems more like 12%

These discounts seem very high to me. Are you talking about that sort of discount on factory orders, or buying stock off the forecourt? We've bought quite a few Californias as factory orders, and not obtained that level of discount. Did get a nice key ring though.

 

[reserves]

These discounts seem very high to me. Are you talking about that sort of discount on factory orders, or buying stock off the forecourt? We've bought quite a few Californias as factory orders, and not obtained that level of discount. Did get a nice key ring though.

Over 10% can be obtained easily be obtained by visiting Drive the Deal or Autoebid, I've not heard of 17% !!

 

[andyinluton]

DTD was between 12 & 14% at the end of December depending on model.

Ive just done a quick check on a 204 Ocean looks like £8k discount off a £70k order.

 

[Bumble The Van]

I have an ocean on order and last week sold my auto sleeper campervan on peugeot boxer engine for EXACTLY the same money i bought it for 3 years ago, and even more amazing that was from the same dealer i bought it from, proof indeed the market is so very buoyant. ( i know i could have got more privately but its huge hassle and also with lockdown restrictions it was to stressful , so when i haggled with dealer to give me what i wanted i was truly amazed and also dead happy as it was so easy and a day later it was gone) Selling to dealer also has the benefits of numerous phone calls asking how you turn the water on etc too lol I have never done that in all the years of owning vans etc so was actually very very happy indeed

 

[Amarillo]

These discounts seem very high to me. Are you talking about that sort of discount on factory orders, or buying stock off the forecourt? We've bought quite a few Californias as factory orders, and not obtained that level of discount. Did get a nice key ring though.

We negotiated the 17% by agreeing that Amarillo could be used as a road demonstrator for up to 3 months or 5,000 miles whichever came sooner before delivery, with a long stop delivery of 12 months from order.

In the end the garage timed things for the 2017 sales figures and delivered Amarillo at 11 months with delivery miles only. For the first three months of ownership the dealer was the registered keeper.

 

[westfalia]

sold my auto sleeper campervan on peugeot boxer engine for EXACTLY the same money i bought it for 3 years ago

And there was me in my Cali cocoon thinking that anything
other than a Vw Camper is gonna blow a few quid.
Although i've always had a sneaking suspicion that
we are not alone.

 

[westfalia]

Yes - I should have sold Amarillo for £28,000 in March 2018 and bought 5 Bitcoin instead. Had I done so I would now have ~£200,000.

But if you did sink all that cash into it, would you have let it ride
all the way?
That is the 21 Bitcoin question.

 

[Amarillo]

We negotiated the 17% by agreeing that Amarillo could be used as a road demonstrator for up to 3 months or 5,000 miles whichever came sooner before delivery, with a long stop delivery of 12 months from order.

So sorry - I have just checked. Our discount was 14% not 17%. It’s odd how my memory plays more and more tricks as I get older...

 

[Amarillo]

But if you did sink all that cash into it, would you have let it ride
all the way?
That is the 21 Bitcoin question.

I wouldn’t have had the balls to spend £28,000 on a bunch of electrons in a ledger on someone else’s computer in the first place.