Are prices due to crash?

[Velma's Dad]

I wouldn’t have had the balls to spend £28,000 on a bunch of electrons in a ledger on someone else’s computer in the first place.

Me neither. Guano trading is the future, I perceive. You can use it to grow tulips.

 

[The Merle]

I wouldn’t have had the balls to spend £28,000 on a bunch of electrons in a ledger on someone else’s computer in the first place.

I think your beach is worth way more than webuyanycar quote!

 

[Amarillo]

Me neither. Guano trading is the future, I perceive. You can use it to grow tulips.

We have a steady supply of chicken sh!t. Any future in that?

 

[calidog]

I knew when I bought my Cali beach 15 months ago, the depreciation was one of the best about. It was the difference on me buying it, instead of the Mercedes, which I thought was better to drive and plusher.
I have now sold it for more then I bought it for, which is astounding!.
We live in strange times

 

[Amarillo]

I knew when I bought my Cali beach 15 months ago, the depreciation was one of the best about. It was the difference on me buying it, instead of the Mercedes, which I thought was better to drive and plusher.
I have now sold it for more then I bought it for, which is astounding!.
We live in strange times

There is a member @Max-Felix I think, who uses seasonal variations in price to buy and sell Cali’s always making a profit, and having a season’s free use.

 

[calidog]

There is a member @Max-Felix I think, who uses seasonal variations in price to buy and sell Cali’s always making a profit, and having a season’s free use.

I think we must be in different times to the normal seasonal variations.
I bought my Beach for £39500, 15 mths ago with 50 miles on the clock, from a dealer, with £1K of chosen free extras. The same vehicle is now on the forecourt for nearly £48000!
That can't be normal!

 

[Lightning]

I think we must be in different times to the normal seasonal variations.
I bought my Beach for £39500, 15 mths ago with 50 miles on the clock, from a dealer, with £1K of chosen free extras. The same vehicle is now on the forecourt for nearly £48000!
That can't be normal!

It’s not good for most of us. It’s like house prices, unless you are leaving the market permanently or down sizing the next van also costs a lot more.

 

[soulstyledevon]

It’s not good for most of us. It’s like house prices, unless you are leaving the market permanently or down sizing the next van also costs a lot more.

Or the arse end the falls out the market and someone’s left with an £82k fast deprecating nightmare...

 

[andyinluton]

Or the arse end the falls out the market and someone’s left with an £82k fast deprecating nightmare...

Even thats only a problem if you want out. If there was huge depreciation and you own rather than PCP it, it makes more sense to keep it longer & get more use out of it.

For us, changing ours recently, once you got past the headline list price & found what they were really available for, coupled with the excellent trade in values of the old van made the cost to change acceptable.

I think the big depreciation could be in 2-3 years time when all those vans bought on PCPs over the last 12 months hit the dealers, coupled with possibly less demand as people will be flying off on holiday again.

 

[Tarquers]

In part it is how you purchase. I bought new cash rather than second hand due to inflated used prices vs 5 year warranty on a newer spec. While the cash is gone, I have an asset that is depreciating faster than my un-invested cash would be, but off set against the cost of a second vehicle.

I am planning on keeping the vehicle as long as possible, so at some point my depreciating asset will pass the theoretical second vehicle costs which would cost less but depreciate faster. With no finance costs, I know what the actual costs are, and projecting ahead, in terms of NPV and IRR, if I squint a little I can make the maths work.

this of course only works if I don’t look at pumping the money into (pick your investment here) but I would still need to have a second vehicle so for me, this way makes sense.

By the time I do come to change, if ever, there will be an asset value plus increased savings to repeat. if I was keeping for 3 years then finance makes sense and would make the capital work hard to cover the monthly or part thereof.

 

[Lightning]

As I let out my property and live full time in my van, the longer I keep it, the more money I make, and the less work I have to do. I have never been happier!

 

[Max-Felix]

There is a member @Max-Felix I think, who uses seasonal variations in price to buy and sell Cali’s always making a profit, and having a season’s free use.

Hi guys - not been on for a long time as we have been Cali-less for nearly two years.

It was not really seasonal variation (ironically I always bought at the 'wrong' time - ie buy June, sell September) more just being super quick to spot a very keenly priced Cali (with accessories that can also be sold on separately to help , ie awnings etc) and then taking care of any little issues and selling with a good ad at the 'right' price.

IME in 'normal' (pre-C times) the time of year had little to do with Cali prices.

It worked four times for us (16/17/18/19) wonderfully as we had the use of a Cali for a 4/5 week summer Europe tour every year and made a bit on the sale to offset the holiday costs. The alternative of hiring would mean a bill of £thousands rather than a profit!

Obviously you have to be quick and confident buying used vehicles etc and know Calis well.

Crazy thing is all four of the Calis we bought/sold, even the one sold in '16 is now probably worth more years later.

That first Beach we sold in 2016 after the first summer was a gorgeous and immaculate three year old example that we sold with 13,000 miles for just £30,250. Must be worth close on that now being five years older and probably 50,000+ miles.

I've always said the single thing that makes Cali ownership financially sensible is the residuals and VW always help owners by never failing to keep raising the new prices and in turn the used values.

 

[Max-Felix]

Just a theory but I will add to the above that although the Cali price over time has always plotted an ever rising graph, this could see a blip in the years to come.

We have all seen the occasional Calis for sale; '...barely used, bed never slept in, cooker never cooked on...'

In the past 'Covid-year' and in the year to come the huge increase in new Cali orders will perhaps contain many more of these less considered purchases with dare I say buyers with more money than sense making an impulse purchase and for whom the dream of Cali-life is not what they imagined.

This is not just true of campers but anyone involved in any leisure business particularly outdoors will have seen a crazy rise in sales with people desperate to spend 'free' money on bicycles, SUPs, small boats, hot tubs etc, etc.

And if Cali order books are really 3x fuller then one day perhaps a glut of these barely used campers will saturate the used market and prices will only go one way...?

 

[reserves]

Just a theory but I will add to the above that although the Cali price over time has always plotted an ever rising graph, this could see a blip in the years to come.

We have all seen the occasional Calis for sale; '...barely used, bed never slept in, cooker never cooked on...' In the past 'Covid-year' and in the year to come the huge increase in new Cali orders will perhaps contain many more of these less considered purchases with dare I say buyers with more money than sense making an impulse purchase and for whom the dream of Cali-life is not what they imagined.

This is not just true of campers but anyone involved in any leisure business particularly outdoors will have seen a crazy rise in sales with people desperate to spend 'free' money on bicycles, SUPs, small boats, hot tubs etc, etc.

And if Cali order books are really 3x fuller then one day perhaps a glut of these barely used campers will saturate the used market and prices will only go one way...?

The price of second hand Cali's will definitely fall back down after the current situation is over, no doubt about that.

I know people who have brought motorhomes on a whim and now are coming to terms with the fact they don't really get on with them.

The fact I can probably sell my 2014 Cali at the moment for almost as much as I brought it for is crazy.

If buyers had a little bit more foresight they would realise they could get a brand new Cali for close to 2nd hand prices. A brand new T6.1 Ocean can be had for £60k if you order direct and 2018 T6 Oceans are being advertised for around £56k, it's crazy.

 

[Wongo]

Arexwe now in Porsche Panamera territory? Output & lead times unable to cope with demand causing a bull market.

 

[soulstyledevon]

The price of second hand Cali's will definitely fall back down after the current situation is over, no doubt about that.

I know people who have brought motorhomes on a whim and now are coming to terms with the fact they don't really get on with them.

The fact I can probably sell my 2014 Cali at the moment for almost as much as I brought it for is crazy.

If buyers had a little bit more foresight they would realise they could get a brand new Cali for close to 2nd hand prices. A brand new T6.1 Ocean can be had for £60k if you order direct and 2018 T6 Oceans are being advertised for around £56k, it's crazy.

Yep, I’ve come across this too.
People who have never camped and were never interested in camping. Sink £££ into one and realise it’s not for them.
I’ve must have said it a million times. Hire one for two weeks and see how you get on. Honestly, they never seem to listen.
There’s some sort of hypnotic, romantic pull that convinces them without even trying it first...?

 

[NessL]

Yep, I’ve come across this too.
People who have never camped and were never interested in camping. Sink £££ into one and realise it’s not for them.
I’ve must have said it a million times. Hire one for two weeks and see how you get on. Honestly, they never seem to listen.
There’s some sort of hypnotic, romantic pull that convinces them without even trying it first...?

People do the same with narrow boats and they’re a lot more expensive. Mystifying!

 

[Hamish S]

As they say "a fool and his money are soon parted".

 

[Amarillo]

People do the same with narrow boats and they’re a lot more expensive. Mystifying!

Oh good! I guess that means there is a good supply of second hand narrow boats.

 

[Wildcamper]

Oh good! I guess that means there is a good supply of second hand narrow boats.

Can you park a Cali on a narrow boat?

 

[Hamish S]

Big enough narrow boat and a ramp.............

 

[NessL]

Big enough narrow boat and a ramp.............

Might be an issue getting under bridges

 

[Hamish S]

Might be an issue getting under bridges

Parking would be OK though, just not moving.......

 

[Amarillo]

Can you park a Cali on a narrow boat?

At 6’10 wide, and the lowest bridge being 6’2 you might be able to design a parking bay for a Cali on a narrow boat, but the Cali would have to sit very close to the waterline.

 

[Ch1pbutty]

At 6’10 wide, and the lowest bridge being 6’2 you might be able to design a parking bay for a Cali on a narrow boat, but the Cali would have to sit very close to the waterline.

And watch out for the ‘squat effect’ with the reduced draft / additional weight.