Are prices due to crash?

[two-saabs]

Hard to say if there'll be a crash or not. I'm following the market closely here in Switzerland as I'm also looking to buy. What I've noticed is:

1. Used asking prices are still stratospheric. A 10yr old van with > 100k Km on the clock should be less than 50% of new. They are out of their minds
2. Pre-registered vans are available. Small discount over same spec from dealers, but immediately available (no long wait) if the spec is what you want. Yet they don't seem to be shifting (one seller has had the same 18 vans for sale for a month, none sold)
3. VW Dealer is keen to make a deal, getting in touch with relative frequency. He is not offering a discount other than the initial 2% he offered in February
4. On top of this, with the war going on, and oil prices sky high, I suspect there's a lower appetite for high fuel consumption vehicles (lets face it, a 3 ton loaded van is going to be a heavy drinker)

Instinctively I would expect demand to falter post Covid. VW likely expected as much, which is why they didn't invest in increasing supply (or chip shortage didn't make it possible, probably both). But I'd expect the used market to become more fluid. This whole Covid mess started in early 2020, so perhaps from early 2023 we will see 3yr vans coming to the end of their financing deals going on the market.

Time will tell if/when this is reflected in prices. I've decided to wait until the Autumn to go back in the market, and will watch from the sidelines. As I intend to use the van year round, I have zero problems with buying one in December, as long as the heater is working

Interesting.

Our dealer (near Zurich) just offered to buy our 4 month old van for more than we paid for it, clear sign it’s still a seller’s market.

Saying that, for us, we’re in it for the long term so the price it’s valued is irrelevant.

I’d think a lot of Cali buyers have the same idea to keep way longer than a normal car, hence market to stay the same.

 

[two-saabs]

I just got back from 10 days in Portugal. Lovely Apartment/Hotel with all the usual Spa facilities. The apartment had 2 big bedrooms, lounge, dining room, modern kitchen, balcony and huge roof terrace. It worked out about £165 a night.
It makes me question how much camping I will do over the next 12months. When most campsites are full for the holiday season & over run with to many guests.
Doesn’t sound that appealing really…

I think this year, I will spent more time in hotels and less time on campsites with the odd roadside camps in between…

The hotel / flights vs California / camping comparison is not the right question imho.

Driving off on a Friday night, pulling up somewhere in the mountains, having a grill then playing cards before cosying down for the night… wonderbar

 

[two-saabs]

A California is an investment - NOT a financial growth investment but a lifestyle and well being investment. If you are concerned about loss then think about the great times and adventures the Cali can provide - priceless. Life is too short!

This.

 

[calibeach76]

Real values are probably as they were in mid 2020 imho. I'll keep my powder dry until I'm ready to get back in and then I might buy a few at the right money and rent them at a fair price too

 

[two-saabs]

Bitcoin anyone?

Still the best performing asset in the last 10 years:

 

[two-saabs]

You may not be selling, therefore won’t be setting the price. Those who need to sell will be setting the price which is set on the margin. Those whose mortgage doubles and then can’t run to the £500 a month on the Cali and need it to go, they’ll be setting the price.

That’s a sad but fair point

 

[two-saabs]

You lost me here.

Agree.

Personally I like the argument “a Cali is so expensive it’s just a metal box with seats in it!”

yeah… as opposed to a car, which is a metal box, with, seats in it

 

[calibeach76]

Agree.

Personally I like the argument “a Cali is so expensive it’s just a metal box with seats in it!”

yeah… as opposed to a car, which is a metal box, with, seats in it

No it's a van with seats in it...

 

[two-saabs]

No it's a van with seats in it...

So, still a metal box then

 

[Perfectos]

Real values are probably as they were in mid 2020 imho. I'll keep my powder dry until I'm ready to get back in and then I might buy a few at the right money and rent them at a fair price too

One mans loss is another mans gain, but you’d be looking to get back in & for people to rent your fleet of stupidly expensive builders vans at a price that fill your pockets As a result of the stupid market price ?

 

[calibeach76]

One mans loss is another mans gain, but you’d be looking to get back in & for people to rent your fleet of stupidly expensive builders vans at a price that fill your pockets As a result of the stupid market price ?

Exactly that. Use money to make money...

 

[BerndRos]

Exactly that. Use money to make money...

Never use another’s dilemma or distress to further your own aims.

You will need sleeping pills.

 

[andyinluton]

My most recent investments have been Onion Sets. Will be going into Seed Potatoes soon

I've tried that, runner beans are as good as potatoes with regard as to returns based on effort needed.
Don't see the point in onions you put one in & get one slightly larger one out if you are lucky.
Rhubarb is better still plant once cover in *hit & harvest every year with no effort.

All far more fun than gold.

 

[BeagleMum]

A few cheap ones here

View attachment 100434

I was in a showroom Monday, 4 motion Ocean was £79K.

 

[Perfectos]

Exactly that. Use money to make money...

Just so long as we have a proper perspective on your previous posts

Capitalism rules, so long as it’s not at prices you consider stupid, then others are stupid for being caught out, just before you sweep in & buy distressed assists ?

waiting for a predictable market conditions can be a dangerous game, it has a history of catching lots of people out and reliving them of their hard earned (just as you suggest)

when you’re out it’s too expensive, when your in it’s a bargain ?
hindsight can be a wonderful thing

 

[chockswahay]

No it's a van with seats in it...

Nah, it’s a van with a highly versatile interior that you can sleep, eat etc in………. can’t do that in a car!

 

[Elmo3]

Exactly that. Many are predicting a surge I gold well North of 5k an oz so buying at 1500 an oz is cheap. Either way it is much safer than cash in the bank especially in light if looming bail ins that will be coming...

Gold hasn‘t been a brilliant investment but I think it’s good to have a bit as a hedge. Some used to say put 10% of your wealth in gold and hope it doesn’t go up. Look at gold miners if you think the price is going to rise. Trouble is now, you’re buying a dollar commodity with sterling on the floor (could go lower of course).

 

[Corradobrit]

Nah, it’s a van with a highly versatile interior that you can sleep, eat etc in………. can’t do that in a car!

Well you can (I've tried it), but was one of the most uncomfortable experiences of my life. The versatile Cali is the perfect jack-of-all-trades. And that comes at a price.

 

[scottk]

The prices do seem to be levelling off but there are still many at the over priced and of the market. I have never seen to many for sale in the 4 odd years I have been looking. There are over 150 on autotrader currently.

 

[California_Ocean]

If you are not someone who needs to dispose of their van, then the current prices are irrelevant. There will still be a finite number of VW Campers in the world after this crisis, probably even less as fewer new ones will be sold, so when demand picks up again, and supply dwindles as a result, everything will return to its previous state.

You only actually suffer a loss if you have to sell in a hurry ... otherwise the current "value" of your van is meaningless.

 

[reserves]

The prices do seem to be levelling off but there are still many at the over priced and of the market. I have never seen to many for sale in the 4 odd years I have been looking. There are over 150 on autotrader currently.

I’m in the market as I said but cannot bring myself to pay more than I sold my previous Cali’s for!

Guess I could suck it up and pay the asking prices but looking at used prices I can order a brand new 23 plate Ocean for £67k which I’m guessing will be here late Spring which offers way better value than a 2020 T6 for £60k

 

[andyinluton]

There are over 150 on autotrader currently.

Supposedly 140 today, but there's one company responsible for about 15 of the adverts that actually only has 2 vans for sale, many of the other trade sellers have duplicate adverts as well.

There have been over 100 for sale for the last few months but the turnover on the trade stuff seems quite quick with just high priced private sales seeming to stick at the moment.

 

[reserves]

Supposedly 140 today, but there's one company responsible for about 15 of the adverts that actually only has 2 vans for sale, many of the other trade sellers have duplicate adverts as well.

There have been over 100 for sale for the last few months but the turnover on the trade stuff seems quite quick with just high priced private sales seeming to stick at the moment.

Knowing people in the trade, traders are very quick & sensitive to changes in values & demands.

Private sellers, quite the opposite!

 

[steve and lisa]

We are still looking to replace ours and dealers are anxious to offer discounts again and with the lead time getting shorter this will naturally have an affect on these silly used prices some people are trying to achieve

 

[Soton Campers]

I’m in the market as I said but cannot bring myself to pay more than I sold my previous Cali’s for!

Guess I could suck it up and pay the asking prices but looking at used prices I can order a brand new 23 plate Ocean for £67k which I’m guessing will be here late Spring which offers way better value than a 2020 T6 for £60k

Can you share who confirmed that order price of £67k please?