Amarillo
Tom
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If that's the case why haven't the Seven Barrage and the Swansea Bay Barrage schemes never progressed beyond the initial design stage?
Capital costs. Gas is so much cheaper.
If that's the case why haven't the Seven Barrage and the Swansea Bay Barrage schemes never progressed beyond the initial design stage?
If that's the case why haven't the Seven Barrage and the Swansea Bay Barrage schemes never progressed beyond the initial design stage?
This comes as no surprise - unfortunately.More problems.
Electric car boom fuels global scramble for nickel and cobalt
A surge in demand for crucial metals could lead to sourcing problems for the growing electric car industry
ByOlivia Rudgard, US TECHNOLOGY REPORTER, SAN FRANCISCO21 September 2020 • 1:01pm
The sun sets on one of the open pit copper and cobalt mines at Mutanda Mine in Kolwezi, DRC. Glencore suspended operations there last year because of difficulties sourcing the sulphric acid needed to extract the metals. CREDIT: Per-Anders Pettersson
Tesla’s quarterly earnings calls are rarely dull. The most recent one was no exception.
In July, chief executive Elon Musk made a direct plea to the mining industry for an element he said he was desperate to get his hands on.
“Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally-sensitive way. So hopefully, this message goes out to all mining companies. Please get nickel,” he said.
The company is due to unveil new battery technology at its highly-anticipated "battery day" on Tuesday. Whatever technology it will announce, it is certain to still need nickel and lithium - two elements that aren't always easy to get.
Their growing scarcity is a problem that is weighing heavy on not just Musk, but the entire electric car industry. Demand for nickel is expected to increase six-fold by 2030, and supply isn't keeping up.
“All of us in the industry have known that there is an abyss coming,” says Martin Vydra, president and director of Giga Metals, which is aiming to become a major supplier of cobalt and nickel through a proposed mining project Turnagain, in British Columbia, Canada.
From the Arctic wastes of northern Siberia to the tropical islands of Australasia, nickel deposits can be found around the globe - but mining them in sufficient quantity and without damaging the environment represents a big challenge.
Of the 2.1m metric tons of refined nickel that is produced annually, only 400,000 tons is in a form that can easily be converted into nickel sulphate, the form required for electric car batteries.
Demand is exploding, with electric car sales taking off in Europe and nickel consumption by the battery market predicted to hit half a million tons by the late 2020s.
Nickel mining projects have shifted to become more focused on nickel laterites, largely based in Indonesia, which are easier to find than the historically more frequently mined form of nickel sulphide, but these require a lot more work and money to refine.
Nickel also comes from projects in Madagascar and the Philippines, but there is growing unease about the reliability of these supply chains, especially since refining capacity is dominated by China.
At the moment the battery market is dwarfed by other uses for the metal, such as the production of stainless steel, so is having a limited impact on prices and demand.
But the urgent need to build longer range and smaller, lighter batteries is pushing manufacturers towards formulas with a greater nickel density. Automakers like Musk fear a looming crunch in availability - especially if they want to limit their carbon footprint and source ethically.
Caspar Rawles, of London-based Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, says that the volatile prices of elements like lithium, nickel and cobalt are a key issue for legacy automakers wanting to conquer the electric car market.
“The price risk really sits with them, and also because of the dealership structure they can’t change their prices very quickly if the price of lithium goes up, and they can't hedge their price because there's no hedging mechanism for lithium or cobalt.
“For nickel there is a hedging mechanism, so it’s slightly less of a concern, but in that case it’s just [that] access to the material in, let’s say, five years’ time is potentially going to be an issue.”
A flurry of recent nickel projects in Canada and European countries including Finland and Norway are promising, but not enough to head off an expected price crunch within the next decade.
Musk has expressed a desire to phase out cobalt from Tesla’s batteries, citing its high cost and ethical concerns over the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s artisanal mines, but in June signed a long-term deal with Glencoreto source the metal - a concession to the practical realities of current battery technology.
Almost three-quarters of the world’s cobalt comes from the DRC, and the rest is scattered from sources around the world.
This means it is vulnerable to local political and logistical issues. Earlier this summer prices spiked because of Covid-19 lockdowns at South Africa’s sea ports, which are the main export points for shipments of cobalt hydroxide from the DRC and Zambia.
Phasing out cobalt is a safety issue, because reducing its levels makes a battery more likely to spontaneously burst into flames, and also reduces a battery’s life cycle capacity.
A shift to solid-state batteries makes the elimination of cobalt more likely, because of the lower risk of overheating. “In 10 years, is there possibility cobalt could be eliminated from lithium-ion batteries? I would say that might be a possibility,” says Vydra.
But major battery manufacturers, including LG Chem and SK Innovation, have repeatedly promised that new low-cobalt formulations would soon be commercially viable, and repeatedly missed their own targets.
Cobalt-focused projects are still going ahead, including a Bill Gates-backed initiative by startup KoBold Metals to scour a 1,000-kilometre area in Canada for the element.
“These technology changes which are quite commonly talked about by battery companies and people in the supply chain as relatively easy to do, they're really not, they're very challenging,” says Rawles.
Robin Goad, president and chief executive of Fortune Minerals, a Canadian mining company looking to establish a project in Canada’s Northwest Territories, said he was “quite confident” in predicting a shortage of cobalt within the next five years.
“Having a North American supply, where we have the rule of law, where we have very stringent environmental regulations as well as social licences to operate, and having transparency from the mining activity right through to the production of the cobalt chemicals is very desirable,” he said.
For all three elements a major problem is a lack of investment in getting them out of the ground. Investors are likely to be scared off by disasters including the bankruptcy of Nemaska Lithium last year, having spent CA$411.4m (£235.2m) failing to launch a mine in Quebec.
Low prices also make things tough. Buzz around battery and TV demand pushed cobalt prices up in 2016 and 2017 but they fell in 2018 and have remained low since. Lithium prices have also fallen because of a glut of supply and China’s cut in subsidies for electric car companies.
“It's hard for these companies to attract capital, even though they could have very viable projects. When the prices are low investment money goes elsewhere,” says Rawles.
This raises the prospect of demand spiking and the supply failing to materialise. Mining is a slow-moving industry. A mine which moves from discovery to development in seven years is considered a speedy project.
Musk's promise in July to provide nickel-mining companies "giant contracts" may go someway to reassure the industry of future profits. But in such a slow-moving sector, it's unlikely to stave off a shortage.
Let's continue to burn oil then" if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally-sensitive way "
nice idea, but impossible....
The whole problem is going to be very difficult to fix. Doubling the wind and solar infrastructure will barely scratch the surface of what is required - wish I was wrong. Have you considered how much land will be required for that level of increased wind/solar infrastructure? A 2MW wind turbine needs about 2 acres of land area. Also bear in mind that with wind/solar because of their intermittent nature to get 2MW output one needs to install 6MW! Offshore is possible but very expensive especially with all that salt water about. Easy this is not going to be.I think you are a bit pessimistic. As a first estimate we probably have to double the existing electricity production to satisfy the demand for a complete switch over to electric driving in the next 10 years or so. This can be done by doubling the number of wind mills and solar panels. And we have time for that.
“We do these things not because they are easy, but because they are hard...”The whole problem is going to be very difficult to fix. Doubling the wind and solar infrastructure will barely scratch the surface of what is required - wish I was wrong. Have you considered how much land will be required for that level of increased wind/solar infrastructure? A 2MW wind turbine needs about 2 acres of land area. Also bear in mind that with wind/solar because of their intermittent nature to get 2MW output one needs to install 6MW! Offshore is possible but very expensive especially with all that salt water about. Easy this is not going to be.
You are absolutely right, just don't underestimate the challenge and the knock on effects, +ve and -ve as both will be present.“We do these things not because they are easy, but because they are hard...”
If you are drowning you cannot tread water forever, eventually you have to try to swim towards a shore.
...and other cliches
I have an optimistic outlook, we might not be able to do the final, perfect solution, but that should not stop us from trying
Progress is incremental. Moving just 10% of cars to an ever so slightly better solution would be fantastic, if we can do more even better
Yep, another of the knock on aspects of wind energy. As the blades are glass fibre composites they are a pain to recycle. I was involved in a project looking into recycling aerospace composites and specifically looking at the Boeing 787 and Airbus 350, both composite aircraft. A major aircraft dismantled said after some thought, " all we can do is dig an f***ing big hole and bury the f***ing things. Aluminium is easy to recycle.Something I thought I’d throw into the mix View attachment 66648
“We do these things not because they are easy, but because they are hard...”
If you are drowning you cannot tread water forever, eventually you have to try to swim towards a shore.
...and other cliches
I have an optimistic outlook, we might not be able to do the final, perfect solution, but that should not stop us from trying
Progress is incremental. Moving just 10% of cars to an ever so slightly better solution would be fantastic, if we can do more even better
There is so much discussion about how much more energy will be needed for electric cars, and almost no discussion of what is currently the largest source of available energy: conservation. Every time I walk past one of those huge department stores, with their “air curtains” blasting down hot air in winter and cold air in summer in front of wide open street entrances with no doors, or look at glass high rises with no openable windows or sun shades, or look down on a whole city with roofs with no vegetation (Toronto has now passed a law that every new roof must have vegetation to absorb thermal variation, starting next year every new home in California must include both passive conservation and active technology to be net zero in energy consumption), I wonder how we became so entitled to brazenly waste energy needlessly and then complain when our “right” to waste is in any way limited.
Its simple, just drive less. You will cut emissions overnight.
1) DoneIt’s surprisingly easy to slash carbon emissions whilst running a Cali.
1) Become vegan (or vegetarian). That will cut emissions by about 20 percent.
2) walk or cycle to work (if within, say, 10-15 miles). Another big cut in emissions.
3) Buy ‘green’ electricity and biogas.
4) Eat organic.
5) Put a jumper on in winter rather than turn up the thermostat.
6) Buy a lot less ‘stuff’, get it secondhand if you can be bothered, and fix it when it breaks.
That will virtually eliminate emissions, you’ll have to work a lot less hard to buy stuff, and you’ll have money left over to drive your Cali as much as you like. I’m not sure my suggestions will go down so well with most people but it depends on where your conscience lies. My Cali is called Greta, btw. I’m not sure ms Thunberg will be amused though!
7) get off our smartphones.It’s surprisingly easy to slash carbon emissions whilst running a Cali.
1) Become vegan (or vegetarian). That will cut emissions by about 20 percent.
2) walk or cycle to work (if within, say, 10-15 miles). Another big cut in emissions.
3) Buy ‘green’ electricity and biogas.
4) Eat organic.
5) Put a jumper on in winter rather than turn up the thermostat.
6) Buy a lot less ‘stuff’, get it secondhand if you can be bothered, and fix it when it breaks.
That will virtually eliminate emissions, you’ll have to work a lot less hard to buy stuff, and you’ll have money left over to drive your Cali as much as you like. I’m not sure my suggestions will go down so well with most people but it depends on where your conscience lies. My Cali is called Greta, btw. I’m not sure ms Thunberg will be amused though!
So they drove 2 motorbikes 12,000 miles with a portable power station in tow! Why? Puzzled!Watch Long Way Up on Apple TV (free 12m subscription if you’ve recently bought an iPhone) if you think electric is viable for anything but local trips.
They’re trying to ride 2 electric Harleys from Cape Horn to LA with a range of 80 miles and a 6 hour charge time with a high current supply. They’ve had to install high current chargers en route (12000 miles) but the cold temperatures and reliance on 13a supplies in many places is reducing overnight charges to 40 miles. Hence they also got a sprinter Support van with a huge Solar panel on the roof and a flat bed with massive 10kva generator.
I think they’re sitting around wishing they’d taken the R1200GS or KTM petrol options. Impressive prototype Rivian pickups tho which can also be towed to charge.
Because they were being paid a big chunk of dosh . Perhaps we should pitch a long journey in a fleet of electric Californias to Apple TV. I quite fancy London to Beijing. .So they drove 2 motorbikes 12,000 miles with a portable power station in tow! Why? Puzzled!
Range seems almost entirely useless for anything other than taking the kids to school.
How can the prestige German marques be so far behind Tesla? None of them see to understand what the customer wants (or they do but are unable to produce it). Even the ID3 is starting to look like a missed opportunity.
I’m inBecause they were being paid a big chunk of dosh . Perhaps we should pitch a long journey in a fleet of electric Californias to Apple TV. I quite fancy London to Beijing. .
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