Goodbye Brussels, hello Burnley.

[DavidofHook]

He decided to stay in and was rewarded with a treat and a cooling swim just around the bend.View attachment 14926 If only politics were that simple!

Where are you, it looks very nice. (Not sure that I should ask as it may be off thread but I can say that, being in France I would like to go there to seek their views on Brexit)

 

[DavidofHook]

You mean.....

Rupert Murdoch may get it wrong, or even bend truth?

No!!


Goodness, never

Jen, I guess that we could say the same about the RBC. (Remain Broadcasting Corporation) of course. Oops sorry, the BBC.

I was just saying that the implication that something is accurate because it is widely reported is not necessarily the case. (Sounding pompous now, oh dear).

Are you still in Northern France and if so what is the weather like as we have to come home soon and, after reading your post, thought that we may go to Ypres on the way. But it is hot here(near Orange) and if it is wet and cold up there, we probably won't! (sorry, off thread but only slightly)

 

[fred]

Sorry Fred but I haven't a clue what you're on about here and I suspect others are in the same boat. What does the difference between social and constitutional democracy have to do with Mike's observation that (to paraphrase him, I hope correctly) we used a referendum to choose whether to join the EU in the first place, so it seems fair to accept the result of another referendum to come out?

Social democracy is a system where (loosely) all citizens are involved in all decisions. It's not the democratic system we have in place: the UK is not run along the same lines as X Factor.
Constitutional democracy in the UK is one where the the Sovereign (the Queen) bestows upon an elected upper and lower Representative house the authority to make decisions for the country. We, like many other developed countries have a triparty system of checks and balances, with an unelected Executive function (reporting to the Queen, hence they're called Her Majesty's... (HMRC being an example), and a Judiciary to enforce authority over both other functions. (The Judiciary is kept in check by way of the fact that the Representative function determines the laws and the Executive function carries it out.

The key point here is that a referendum has no binding authority in Constitutional democracy. As I've said many times, it has the democratic weight of a public opinion poll, or a petition. That's not to say it carries no social weight at all, just not in any legal or political authority in the way in which democracy is defined. The only way it will is if the UK seeks to redefine Constitutional democracy. Mike was saying that we've somehow voted to Leave and should now all move on (and out of the EU). But we have to remember that this was a referendum, not an election.

I set this out (admittedly rather mischievously) in this post and the couple of pages following in the other thread and also here in this thread where I tried to explain it clearly. This paper issued by the House of Lords also broadly confirms what I'm saying, though I accept that not everyone accepts this position yet.

 

[T6 CFO]

No. Solvency II (and Basel III and a host of other ECB directives are there to make sure financial services companies keep enough capital to respond to significant changes in markets, to prevent another government bailout of the industry. The BoE has already had to abandon some of that to manage the crisis, easing rules on net capital for banks until 2017 in order to keep money flowing.

I think I've made my expectations pretty clear in the past on the previous thread. We will see sterling hit $1.10*, high interest rates to service UK debt, and that coupled with a mass exodus of entrepreneurs and investors (which keep this country going economically whether you like it or not) means that I think the UK is looking at an IMF bailout by around 2019.

* this means a 30-40% haircut on everyone's savings, pensions and property.

In the near term, taxes wil be going up. You can expect income tax up by 2-3%, perhaps VAT up by 2%, and likely pension fund contributions to be cut and inheritance tax to rise. Corporation tax will have to come down by 3-5% to try to stem the capital flight but it won't be effective enough.

If anyone wants to point out that the ftse 100 is marginally up, then you clearly have no idea how markets work. The ftse 100 is mostly international companies and anyway the index just got 20% cheaper due to currency devaluation.

In the past I've been accused of scaremongering or being overly dramatic, particularly when I said that leave voters would be voting for sovereignty over a bankrupt little island. Not only do I stand by this but a combination of the political and constitutional turmoil since the referendum has made me even more certain that the UK is in economic free fall.

I agree with you on the FTSE it is purely a number and not very representative of the economy. As for your predictions time will tell and as you know will depend largely on the world economy and not just our relationship with the EU.
I believe uncertainty is the single biggest issue as is a positive attitude to the change in our relationship.
Short term implications were guaranteed it is the long term that is paramount. We have to remember that remaining had implications and risks and the financial risks have to be set against a greater democracy, self determination and hopefully greater equality.
Sentiment is everything in the markets but unfortunately so many people will be trying to profit from the volatility.
It's going to be a wild ride on the markets.


Mike

 

[Velma's Dad]

Social democracy is a system where (loosely) all citizens are involved in all decisions. It's not the democratic system we have in place: the UK is not run along the same lines as X Factor.
Constitutional democracy in the UK is one where the the Sovereign (the Queen) bestows upon an elected upper and lower Representative house the authority to make decisions for the country. We, like many other developed countries have a triparty system of checks and balances, with an unelected Executive function (reporting to the Queen, hence they're called Her Majesty's... (HMRC being an example), and a Judiciary to enforce authority over both other functions. (The Judiciary is kept in check by way of the fact that the Representative function determines the laws and the Executive function carries it out.

The key point here is that a referendum has no binding authority in Constitutional democracy. As I've said many times, it has the democratic weight of a public opinion poll, or a petition. That's not to say it carries no social weight at all, just not in any legal or political authority in the way in which democracy is defined. The only way it will is if the UK seeks to redefine Constitutional democracy. Mike was saying that we've somehow voted to Leave and should now all move on (and out of the EU). But we have to remember that this was a referendum, not an election.

I set this out (admittedly rather mischievously) in this post and the couple of pages following in the other thread and also here in this thread where I tried to explain it clearly. This paper issued by the House of Lords also broadly confirms what I'm saying, though I accept that not everyone accepts this position yet.

Okay thanks for that Fred. I now understand what you meant by 'social democracy' in this sense - although I'd have described what you're talking about as 'direct democracy' (social democracy to most political scientists would mean something rather different, eg see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_democracy).

If anyone ever thought that the referendum result had direct, legal force of itself, then I'd say they didn't understand the rudiments of the British Constitution (okay, that probably still includes a large proportion of the electorate, but that's not their fault).

However, I think we can all agree that the referendum result carries massive political weight and makes the will of the population abundantly clear to parliament. Despite having personally voted for Remain, I believe any attempt now by parliamentarians to subvert the declared will of the people, who voted in the government who said they would host an EU referendum (even though, again, I didn't vote for them) would be deeply wrong and I would be one of those marching on the streets against it. Okay, well I'd be sounding off on the Cali forum anyway...

 

[Amarillo]

T6 CFO a Beach or Ocean ? I think if I had a young family again I would opt for a beach. Plus I could get yellow.

That would be a great choice.

 

[Teejay]

Never been called a troll before.....wow. My post was jovial and I'm sad you didn't see it that way.

What have you got under your bridge then ?

 

[T6 CFO]

Sorry but I can't agree with that!

Fred for the sake of clarity and even though answered very well by Velma's Dad.
My point is not on the legalities or the technicalities. This may well have significance to some but to the masses it will not. It was a simple question which was answered and they will demand a simple execution. Yes there will be some wiggle room but an exit will be demanded.
It's a mess and we need a more equal society. This may be a way of getting there but will be at a cost.


Mike

 

[GrannyJen]

I assume you mean you haven't heard of Andrea Leadsom, not Theresa May? (Although May kept a cannily low profile throughout the campaign).

Leadsom may well be a fine and honourable politician, but I nearly choked yesterday when I heard her proudly proclaim, without irony, her "real world experience"... which appears to consist entirely of a 20-year career in City banking! Sorry love, that's still a very long way from the real world that most of the electorate inhabit.

(Apologies to any forum members who work in financial services, no personal slight intended! )

She could be a sound investment now that Boris has cashed in his chips!

 

[pjm-84]

Will need to go and have a look. Where do I find it?

 

[LowMan]

No man is an island,
Entire of itself,
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thy friend's
Or of thine own were:
Any man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in mankind,
And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.

John Donne - 1624 ad

 

[GrannyJen]

Jen, I guess that we could say the same about the RBC. (Remain Broadcasting Corporation) of course. Oops sorry, the BBC.

I was just saying that the implication that something is accurate because it is widely reported is not necessarily the case. (Sounding pompous now, oh dear).

Are you still in Northern France and if so what is the weather like as we have to come home soon and, after reading your post, thought that we may go to Ypres on the way. But it is hot here(near Orange) and if it is wet and cold up there, we probably won't! (sorry, off thread but only slightly)

David,


My comment was tongue in cheek and an attack on Murdoch, not anyone else

I have long since stopped taking this thread seriously and am far more interested in getting on with it, even if it was not what I voted for

I am currently in Normandy. I am not sure why. I promised to show my Sister Pegasus bridge as she has more than a passing interest in the parachute regiment and now waiting for Brittany ferries to start boarding. Weather is at last warm and dry so Ypres will be passable I think.

All this hanging around is making me appreciate Eurotunnel even more

 

[Amarillo]

I changed the setting after I was labelled as a racist by some of the lovely remain contributors.

I was accused of "illegal" discrimination. Not nice, but not true either so I pretty much ignored it.

SOUTH LONDON AND PROUD OF IT

Plenty to be proud about. Culturally diverse, and like Scotland and Northern Ireland, strongly in favour of remaining in the EU.

 

[Amarillo]

high interest rates to service UK debt

I hope this prediction is wrong. I'm expecting the BoE to cut interest rates to between 0 and 0.25% to stimulate investment.

 

[Velma's Dad]

and even though answered very well by Velma's Dad

Actually I got all that from Velma herself. Although she was 'pre-loved' and we didn't choose all her options ourselves, it turns out she came with the Comparative Constitutional Law (LLB, University of Hanover) option installed. Also she has Advanced Littoral Morphology so don't get her started on the Beach/Ocean question or we'll be here all day.

 

[DavidofHook]

David,


My comment was tongue in cheek and an attack on Murdoch, not anyone else

I have long since stopped taking this thread seriously and am far more interested in getting on with it, even if it was not what I voted for

I am currently in Normandy. I am not sure why. I promised to show my Sister Pegasus bridge as she has more than a passing interest in the parachute regiment and now waiting for Brittany ferries to start boarding. Weather is at last warm and dry so Ypres will be passable I think.

All this hanging around is making me appreciate Eurotunnel even more

Thanks Jen,
Sounds as if Ypres may be on

Pegasus Bridge, another thing we have never got to see in our obsessive rush for the sun. It is on the list!

Have a good trip

 

[pjm-84]

20 years a go the rate would have gone up to protect the £ and control inflation. It will follow when and if the economy can absorb the stress. I have a tracker mortgage at base + 0.82

 

[T6 CFO]

I found the below article very interesting. It is quite long and you need to get to the end to reach an alternative form of democracy called sortition.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/why-elections-are-bad-for-democracy


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Amarillo]

Never been called a troll before

I have never quite understood the term "troll".

Might a "troll" boast to remain supporters, before the Brexit referendum, that they would be shuttling elderly people to and from polling stations with the implicit expectation that they are more likely to vote leave?

 

[Amarillo]

I have a tracker mortgage at base + 0.82

Very nice. My mortgage is at the usurers rate of 2.08% + BR.

 

[T6 CFO]

Double post removed

 

[T6 CFO]

I have never quite understood the term "troll".

Might a "troll" boast to remain supporters, before the Brexit referendum, that they would be shuttling elderly people to and from polling stations with the implicit expectation that they are more likely to vote leave?

I really don't believe that is called for. Have you no idea that sometimes it's better to be silent. Comment Flood made was not directed at you and he was obviously a little upset by an earlier episode. Winding him up serves no purpose. You obviously have issues!
And yes I am replying on a point that does not concern me but hopefully constructively. Very sad!

Edit: it was post 471 over a month ago and his post said more than that.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[AlanC]

David,


My comment was tongue in cheek and an attack on Murdoch, not anyone else

I have long since stopped taking this thread seriously and am far more interested in getting on with it, even if it was not what I voted for

I am currently in Normandy. I am not sure why. I promised to show my Sister Pegasus bridge as she has more than a passing interest in the parachute regiment and now waiting for Brittany ferries to start boarding. Weather is at last warm and dry so Ypres will be passable I think.

All this hanging around is making me appreciate Eurotunnel even more

Maybe, but the restaurant and the wine list is way better on the boat

 

[fred]

I hope this prediction is wrong. I'm expecting the BoE to cut interest rates to between 0 and 0.25% to stimulate investment.

It will be cut in the near term, possibly as early as next week. But really there's very little room for manoeuvre. In the mid term were looking at significant rises.

 

[Amarillo]

It will be cut in the near term, possibly as early as next week. But really there's very little room for manoeuvre. In the mid term were looking at significant rises.

I am hoping you are wrong. Although I have cut my borrowing by about 40% since February 2014, loan interest is a significant cost, and every extra 0.25% interest reduces my net income by about 2.25%.

I am planning 12-15 months away with my family beginning June 2017; a 2% rate rise would cut our available income by about 20%. We do have about 60% of our expected income available in savings as a contingency, so it is unlikely that we would have to cancel or shorten our trip.