Goodbye Brussels, hello Burnley.

[fred]

People are likely to feel the consequences most in in the cost of goods they buy. A triple effect of weak sterling that can't buy much, higher import tariffs and increased domestic taxes is really going to hurt.

 

[fred]

I am hoping you are wrong. Although I have cut my borrowing by about 40% since February 2014, loan interest is a significant cost, and every extra 0.25% interest reduces my net income by about 2.25%.

I am planning 12-15 months away with my family beginning June 2017; a 2% rate rise would cut our available income by about 20%. We do have about 60% of our expected income available in savings as a contingency, so it is unlikely that we would have to cancel or shorten our trip.

I wouldn't worry too much about interest rates, when I say mid term I'm talking 18-60 months. I guess you'll be vulnerable to weak sterling as your income is presumably in £ and costs in €

 

[Keith Smith]

I'm not sure they can increase interest rates much, so many people are in so much debt, particularly mortgage debt, that any serious increase would create a social as well as economic disaster. I've lived through two periods of 15% interest rates and I don't think younger people would cope with the sort of personal austerity measures we had to take, just to hang onto the house.

 

[kave]

Well, the interest should reflect inflation and if the GBP gets lower in value, the interest will rise.

 

[fred]

It's quite conceivable that if we don't have plan that involves free movement of goods, services and people with the EU, a VW Cali at £50k pre-Brexit will go up in price 15% due to currency changes, 10% due to trade tariffs and 2% due to a VAT rise.

Obviously a Cali isn't in the basket of goods used to calculate inflation but if inflation really is in the 10-20% range you can easily see how high interest rates will have to climb.

I agree that puts us in a position of high social unrest and economic instability and this will open the door to far right / far left populist politics.

 

[Digger]

On brea for 6 weeks so rather than play game of we're doomed' will enjoy the vacation away from negativity.

 

[snowy55]

It's quite conceivable that if we don't have plan that involves free movement of goods, services and people with the EU, a VW Cali at £50k pre-Brexit will go up in price 15% due to currency changes, 10% due to trade tariffs and 2% due to a VAT rise.

Obviously a Cali isn't in the basket of goods used to calculate inflation but if inflation really is in the 10-20% range you can easily see how high interest rates will have to climb.

I agree that puts us in a position of high social unrest and economic instability and this will open the door to far right / far left populist politics.

That will be very good for existing Cali residuals!

 

[pjm-84]

Wow.... my UK property fund now down 17%. Ouch. I can only laugh as it was predictable.

"Scaremongering"..... no sorry that's been done. WHERE is Boris!

 

[Amarillo]

I wouldn't worry too much about interest rates, when I say mid term I'm talking 18-60 months. I guess you'll be vulnerable to weak sterling as your income is presumably in £ and costs in €

Yes - that's about right. I wish now that I had changed about £20,000 into Euros at 1.40. I would now be €4,500 better off had I done so. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Perhaps the pound will be a little stronger by June next year.

 

[DavidofHook]

On brea for 6 weeks so rather than play game of we're doomed' will enjoy the vacation away from negativity.

Just avoid campsites with good wifi, you will only get drawn in again!

 

[pjm-84]

6 weeks break.....nice. Enjoy.

 

[T6 CFO]

Well it appears we can put this thread to bed unless we get some drastic U turns.
Very good speech by May at 12 which is worth listening to in its entirety.
Big shift to inclusion and to the left and a firm confirmation of Brexit.
Leadsom 10 mins later withdraws with full support behind May.
Personally I am much happier now as indecision has been removed and a positive exit from the EU can now be made.
Andrea Eagle will hopefully get roasted by Jeremy and we can have a party to the left of a far more inclusive centrist Conservative party.
Hopefully this will all hopefully prevent any rise from the right which is something I personally feared .





Mike

 

[GrannyJen]

I do understand though that a candidate just left of Corbyn though is about to announce their candidature, which could through the whole process into confusion.

Some bloke called leonard Trotsky, or something like that.....

Apparently ice axes are banned for party headquarters

 

[fred]

May is obliged to be committed to Brexit in order to get in. She'll then soft-negotiate a Brexit plan with the EU and put this to the electorate in a second referendum or a general election (odds halved over the weekend) or at the very least to parliament in the autumn. It won't pass (how could it, factories are already shutting in Brexit towns), and then she'll have a justifiable reason to avoid giving article 50 notice to the EU. Et voila, democracy!

 

[Velma's Dad]

May is obliged to be committed to Brexit in order to get in. She'll then soft-negotiate a Brexit plan with the EU and put this to the electorate in a second referendum or a general election (odds halved over the weekend) or at the very least to parliament in the autumn.

I might have been more inclined to entertain that analysis if she hadn't said the following in her speech today (apologies for quoting a whole chunk, but I think it's all of the essence):

"Many of our political and business leaders have responded by showing that they still don’t get it. There are politicians - democratically-elected politicians - who seriously suggest that the government should find a way of ignoring the referendum result and keeping Britain inside the European Union. And there are business leaders whose response has not been to plan for Britain’s departure or to think of the opportunities withdrawal presents - but to complain about the result and criticise the electorate. Well, I couldn’t be clearer. Brexit means Brexit. And we’re going to make a success of it. There will be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to rejoin it by the back door, and no second referendum. The country voted to leave the European Union, and as prime minister I will make sure that we leave the European Union."

I would agree with you Fred that there will need to be a vote in parliament. But I'd pretty confidently predict that it will be along the lines of "...conform to the wishes as expressed in the referendum" and will be passed by a majority of MPs, who know a fait accompli when they see one.

 

[T6 CFO]

I might have been more inclined to entertain that analysis if she hadn't said the following in her speech today (apologies for quoting a whole chunk, but I think it's all of the essence):

"Many of our political and business leaders have responded by showing that they still don’t get it. There are politicians - democratically-elected politicians - who seriously suggest that the government should find a way of ignoring the referendum result and keeping Britain inside the European Union. And there are business leaders whose response has not been to plan for Britain’s departure or to think of the opportunities withdrawal presents - but to complain about the result and criticise the electorate. Well, I couldn’t be clearer. Brexit means Brexit. And we’re going to make a success of it. There will be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to rejoin it by the back door, and no second referendum. The country voted to leave the European Union, and as prime minister I will make sure that we leave the European Union."

I would agree with you Fred that there will need to be a vote in parliament. But I'd pretty confidently predict that it will be along the lines of "...conform to the wishes as expressed in the referendum" and will be passed by a majority of MPs, who know a fait accompli when they see one.

I agree and felt positive for the first time since the referendum today. Yes much can still happen but I believe there is a momentum building for a positive exit.
I listened to her whole speech and having done more research on her feel as confident as it is possible to be in such a complicated scenario.
Reaction from EU will be interesting to observe over the coming days and weeks.


Mike

 

[WelshGas]

May is obliged to be committed to Brexit in order to get in. She'll then soft-negotiate a Brexit plan with the EU and put this to the electorate in a second referendum or a general election (odds halved over the weekend) or at the very least to parliament in the autumn. It won't pass (how could it, factories are already shutting in Brexit towns), and then she'll have a justifiable reason to avoid giving article 50 notice to the EU. Et voila, democracy!

You obviously live in hope of getting your own way. Dream on. I don't remember Mrs May being very vociferous during the "Remain" campaign.
It must be so reassuring to be able to predict the future so accurately. It must be galling that real life is just that, real and unpredictable in oh so many ways.

 

[fred]

Actions speak louder than words https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10426/theresa_may/maidenhead/votes

 

[WelshGas]

Actions speak louder than words https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10426/theresa_may/maidenhead/votes

And the point is?
The future has yet to come and the past has gone.

 

[fred]

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-human-rights-what-did-she-mean-a7130961.html

 

[Amarillo]

Well it appears we can put this thread to bed unless we get some drastic U turns.

This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. It is, possibly, the end of the beginning.

All key Brexiteers have fled, leaving a pro remain Prime Minister to implement impossible promises (such as £350 million per week for the NHS).

My prediction: Article 50 notice will never be given.

 

[Velma's Dad]

All key Brexiteers have fled, leaving a pro remain Prime Minister to implement impossible promises (such as £350 million per week for the NHS).

Eh? What promise, impossible or otherwise, does Theresa May inherit on NHS funding (£350m or whatever other number)???

 

[WelshGas]

Oh dear. Boeing have just announced an increase in their UK workforce of some 2000 jobs.
That wasn't predicted, was it?

 

[T6 CFO]

This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. It is, possibly, the end of the beginning.

All key Brexiteers have fled, leaving a pro remain Prime Minister to implement impossible promises (such as £350 million per week for the NHS).

My prediction: Article 50 notice will never be given.

You are a lost cause as you cannot move on, I was writing a proper reply that you could not twist but it would be a waste of my effort. On your tombstone you can have inscribed "I'm telling you they said on that bus 350 million"
You are lost in minutiae and have no ability to look at the big picture or any vision for the country.


Mike

 

[WelshGas]

Virgin Airlines have just ordered 8 new Airbus 380s and guess which country supplies the wings and engines. Oh dear, all that job security. How terrible.