Norway is shutting down

[WelshGas]

I do so hope you are right. Is the UK response making it clear to older people that they should shelter while younger people face the brunt to give time to develop a vaccine?

Yes. Nursing homes have isolated themselves. Many gated communities retired folk have imposed restrictions on visitors or banned them totally. A definite change in the demographics of the people out and about and many clubs etc: frequented by the retired have suspended meetings as they follow the Government Scientific advice to protect the elderly and those at risk.

 

[WelshGas]

First, who is calling for a complete quarantine?
We are talking about pro-active government measures to prevent what has obviously happened (evidence) in other countries from happening in your neck of the woods.
We are only talking about two weeks of restricted movement, not months.
Logic and facts are what count.
Leadership means making the tough decisions.
We'll see where the UK comes out after all is said and done.
I think I've done my part, at least.

The thing is no one asked you to " do your part ". Panic never helps anyone.

 

[Maskweech]

The thing is no one asked you to " do your part ". Panic never helps anyone.

I refuse to join you in the gutter.
You can either remain civilized or be ignored.

 

[ShmBK]

“Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate.” – Michael Leavitt

 

[Lightning]

The challenge is to prevent needless deaths and the collapse of the health system. This can best be achieved by restricting non-essential movement for a period of two weeks.
There is no playbook to consult.
There is only logic to employ:
1. The virus can only be transmitted through human contact.
2. The virus is highly contagious when the carrier is asymptomatic.
3. It runs its course in about two weeks.
4. Testing negative does not mean you won't be infected.
5. Being asymptomatic results in risky behavior.
Solution: Restricted movement until the virus runs its course.

Did you hear the rationale the Chief medical officer and Chief scientist gave for their position. When they explained why they were doing it, it made sense. They looked at the data, and considered the wider implications of each option and concluded accordingly. It may be counterintuitive but it is science based. They kept repeating that timing is important and gave their reasons which seemed reasonable.

 

[clarinetbcn]

Yes. Nursing homes have isolated themselves. Many gated communities retired folk have imposed restrictions on visitors or banned them totally. A definite change in the demographics of the people out and about and many clubs etc: frequented by the retired have suspended meetings as they follow the Government Scientific advice to protect the elderly and those at risk.

Is the UK making it clear to younger people that many of them will die while the inoculation of the herd occurs, even while older people shelter? The Chinese doctor who tried to sound the alert and was repressed by the Chinese government subsequenty died. He was 35.

 

[jamessclarke]

Do you think it is OK for different people to have different views? I do and I welcome Maskweech's contributions.

 

[Maskweech]

Did you hear the rationale the Chief medical officer and Chief scientist gave for their position. When they explained why they were doing it, it made sense. They looked at the data, and considered the wider implications of each option and concluded accordingly. It may be counterintuitive but it is science based. They kept repeating that timing is important and gave their reasons which seemed reasonable.

There is, unfortunately, no "reasonable" solution to Covid-19.
It has to be obvious that the tried and true methods of dealing with the flu are inadequate.
A "measured response" to something that is happening silently, without evidence that it is occurring, without some scientific way of quantifying the scope of the problem, is illogical.
If something can't be measured, how can you have a measured response?
You can only look at the evidence of what has occurred in other places and count your blessings that you have the opportunity to be pro-active.
Or not...

 

[Amarillo]

Herd immunity

I hope I have this broadly correct.

Herd immunity kicks in when on average each infected person passes on the virus to less than one person.

The natural infection rate of COVID-19 is about R0 = 2.2. Each infected person passes the virus onto 2.2 people. This will vary by country due to different social habits - kissing, etc, and some control by changes in lifestyle.

To reduce R0 <= 1 in the natural state, i.e. no lifestyle changes, a portion of the population needs immunity from infection and then recovery. This portion will be greater than 1 - (1/2.2); 6/11 of the population.

6/11 of 66,000,000 is 36,000,000 people. 36,000,000 people need to become infected and then recover from Coronavirus for herd immunity to become effective, without other control measures, (isolation, etc.)

A small portion of those who become infected will have a serious illness, perhaps 5%; and an even smaller portion will die, perhaps 1%.

If true, for the herd immunity to work, and for us to revert to our previous lifestyles and habits, approximately 1.8 million people will have a serious illness and approximately 360,000 of those will die.

Do I have this broadly correct?

 

[clarinetbcn]

Herd immunity

I hope I have this broadly correct.

Herd immunity kicks in when on average each infected person passes on the virus to less than one person.

The natural infection rate of COVID-19 is about R0 = 2.2. Each infected person passes the virus onto 2.2 people. This will vary by country due to different social habits - kissing, etc, and some control by changes in lifestyle.

To reduce R0 <= 1 in the natural state, i.e. no lifestyle changes, a portion of the population needs immunity from infection and then recovery. This portion will be greater than 1 - (1/2.2); 6/11 of the population.

6/11 of 66,000,000 is 36,000,000 people. 36,000,000 people need to become infected and then recover from Coronavirus for herd immunity to become effective, without other control measures, (isolation, etc.)

A small portion of those who become infected will have a serious illness, perhaps 5%; and an even smaller portion will die, perhaps 1%.

If true, for the herd immunity to work, and for us to revert to our previous lifestyles and habits, approximately 1.8 million people will have a serious illness and approximately 360,000 of those will die.

Do I have this broadly correct?

Finally. Some clarity.

 

[Lightning]

There is, unfortunately, no "reasonable" solution to Covid-19.
It has to be obvious that the tried and true methods of dealing with the flu are inadequate.
A "measured response" to something that is happening silently, without evidence that it is occurring, without some scientific way of quantifying the scope of the problem, is illogical.
If something can't be measured, how can you have a measured response?
You can only look at the evidence of what has occurred in other places and count your blessings that you have the opportunity to be pro-active.
Or not...

They cannot stop it spreading, they can only slow it down.
The rationale was more about wider implications. For example, if they close schools, then health workers would need to stay home to look after the kids, and the kids would still mix anyway in reality, and the grandparents would look after them too. Also minimising the time people are isolated is necessary because isolation can itself be mentally harmful and difficult.
Perhaps you should listen to their rationale, which is science based and considered. You may even change your mind. It may be wrong, but who knows.

 

[Maskweech]

They cannot stop it spreading, they can only slow it down.
The rationale was more about wider implications. For example, if they close schools, then health workers would need to stay home to look after the kids, and the kids would still mix anyway in reality, and the grandparents would look after them too. Also minimising the time people are isolated is necessary because isolation can itself be mentally harmful and difficult.
Perhaps you should listen to their rationale, which is science based and considered. You may even change your mind. It may be wrong, but who knows.

The spread cannot be stopped, and, at some point, we will all have come in contact with Covid-19.
The idea is to prevent the collapse of the already heavily burdened health systems by slowing down the spread and making the situation more manageable.
There will never be a cure and an approved vaccine will come after everyone has already been exposed.
I repeat, no one is claiming to have a solution.
We can only make things more bearable and prevent needless suffering.

 

[Lightning]

There was s

Herd immunity

I hope I have this broadly correct.

Herd immunity kicks in when on average each infected person passes on the virus to less than one person.

The natural infection rate of COVID-19 is about R0 = 2.2. Each infected person passes the virus onto 2.2 people. This will vary by country due to different social habits - kissing, etc, and some control by changes in lifestyle.

To reduce R0 <= 1 in the natural state, i.e. no lifestyle changes, a portion of the population needs immunity from infection and then recovery. This portion will be greater than 1 - (1/2.2); 6/11 of the population.

6/11 of 66,000,000 is 36,000,000 people. 36,000,000 people need to become infected and then recover from Coronavirus for herd immunity to become effective, without other control measures, (isolation, etc.)

A small portion of those who become infected will have a serious illness, perhaps 5%; and an even smaller portion will die, perhaps 1%.

If true, for the herd immunity to work, and for us to revert to our previous lifestyles and habits, approximately 1.8 million people will have a serious illness and approximately 360,000 of those will die.

Do I have this broadly correct?

The problem with this according to a professor on the radio tonight, is that at its peak, two people under 40 will need each icu bed available. The clinical decisions will be based upon likelihood of a positive outcome, so anybody over 40 will be unlikely to get a bed during this period.

 

[Lightning]

The spread cannot be stopped, and, at some point, we will all have come in contact with Covid-19.
The idea is to prevent the collapse of the already heavily burdened health systems by slowing down the spread and making the situation more manageable.
There will never be a cure and an approved vaccine will come after everyone has already been exposed.
I repeat, no one is claiming to have a solution.
We can only make things more bearable and prevent needless suffering.

This is the whole basis of the U.K. approach. Nobody is doing anything intentionally harmful or negligent.

 

[jamessclarke]

How about respecting each other's views ?

 

[GrannyJen]

I do so hope you are right. Is the UK response making it clear to older people that they should shelter while younger people face the brunt to give time to develop a vaccine?

Quite frankly the constant, unremitting drone from every single element of news media that I, and everyone else over the age of 65, is facing imminent extinction, is ensuring that we ancient old and frail folk are fully versed that we should dig a big hole in the ground and hunker down.

Meanwhile us oldies are quite happy to put our heads above the shell hole and look after people like Henry, my 5 y/old grandson with respiratory problems, educate him to cleaning his hands whilst taking him to his (and mine) favourite pizza restaurant, continue doing my bit at the local night shelter for the homeless and vulnerable and if God wants to take me home now that is his choice but otherwise whilst ensuring meticulous attention to anti-viral hygiene it's business as usual in the Granny Jen household.

 

[Amarillo]

There was s
The problem with this according to a professor on the radio tonight, is that at its peak, two people under 40 will need each icu bed available. The clinical decisions will be based upon likelihood of a positive outcome, so anybody over 40 will be unlikely to get a bed during this period.

Isn't the Government's plan to ratchet up social control measures to reduce the rate of infection and ensure there is sufficient medical care available while the virus runs its course?

If true, a risky strategy, but, if it works, the correct strategy!

 

[Lightning]

How about respecting each other's views ?

I was not disrespecting his views. I was suggesting he listens to rationale given for the UK approach being different at this time.

 

[Lightning]

Isn't the Government's plan to ratchet up social control measures to reduce the rate of infection and ensure there is sufficient medical care available while the virus runs its course?

If true, a risky strategy, but, if it works, the correct strategy!

This outcome seems to be the best they think they can do with the 4000 icu beds available. If they can get more beds they can save more people.

 

[jamessclarke]

It seems to me that some folks think we will be able to control this epidemic. That is just not the case. There is also no real way of controlling the UK population either. Look at toilet rolls vanishing from shelves. Not in line with government advice but it has still happened. Boris didn't want to halt large gatherings but the situation overtook him. The FA stopped fixtures off their own bat.

I expect we will have more restrictions and I hope they do slow the spread of the virus. I expect to be doing more working from home with video/telephone conferences rather than face to face meetings.

 

[Amarillo]

This outcome seems to be the best they think they can do with the 4000 icu beds available. If they can get more beds they can save more people.

Somehow 4,000 beds between 1.8 million people doesn't sound sufficient.

 

[flying banana]

It seems to me that some folks think we will be able to control this epidemic. That is just not the case. There is also no real way of controlling the UK population either. Look at toilet rolls vanishing from shelves. Not in line with government advice but it has still happened. Boris didn't want to halt large gatherings but the situation overtook him. The FA stopped fixtures off their own bat.

I expect we will have more restrictions and I hope they do slow the spread of the virus. I expect to be doing more working from home with video/telephone conferences rather than face to face meetings.

I am engineer. I doubt they are going to fetch the trains to my house for me to fix

 

[Amarillo]

Can you trust a person with a name like that?

“What we are seeing is not rocket science,” professor Balloux said. “You have two cases, then four, then eight, then 16.” ​

​

Epidemiological models show Europe faces Italy-like coronavirus surges within weeks

‘Italy is about two weeks ahead of Britain and the rest of Europe,’ professor Francois Balloux says

www.independent.co.uk

 

[clarinetbcn]

This is the whole basis of the U.K. approach. Nobody is doing anything intentionally harmful or negligent.

I agree with you, but an integral part of this strategy is withholding the truth from those who will die. As a strategy to protect the long term survival of a society, I agree. But as an individual, would I be prepared to make that sacrifice? That is the question that it looks like the current policy is trying to hide from young people.

 

[WelshGas]

How about respecting each other's views ?

How about having a view instead of happily clicking the " Disagree" button.