Norway is shutting down

[Maskweech]

But if Grandma wasn’t at home the Mother and daughter would get the infection, recover and be immune. Then they could hug grandmother as much as they like .
Quarantining the whole population still leaves Grandmother at risk.
This is the big difference between the Mediterranean countries and the U.K. Multigenerational homes are significantly less common in the U.K. So it is much easier for the older generation to isolate themselves while the younger generation go about their daily lives. Closing schools however means the elderly are roped into childcare duties while the parents are working thus exposing the elderly to infection.
Its a fine line and we will not know which is effective for many weeks or months .

Again, not acting until it's too late may be an acceptable strategy for some, but those who suffer and die might have a problem with it.
After all, we are talking about the actions taken-or not taken-by a government sworn to protect and serve.
It's easy to second-guess when you don't have the responsibility for the safety of others.
What would you say if you were the one who were held responsible for inaction that causes the death of a loved one?

 

[GrannyJen]

Again, not acting until it's too late may be an acceptable strategy for some, but those who suffer and die might have a problem with it.
After all, we are talking about the actions taken-or not taken-by a government sworn to protect and serve.
It's easy to second-guess when you don't have the responsibility for the safety of others.
What would you say if you were the one who were held responsible for inaction that causes the death of a loved one?

Yes, but government and those sworn to protect us have a duty to take the best advice and not put emotion and social clamour before considered action.

As I said in my preceding post the UK as yet has no identifiable hot spots where there is evidence of large community - infection. It will happen, and the response to it happening I am sure has been prepared and ready to put in place, but a knee jerk too early may kick the bucket over and result in a negative effect.

We are alll in the same situation, just at different timescales. We will have an Italian or Spanish type reaction, but when the degree of infection demands the response, not before for to do it before may lead to too much too early and the effect too little. This virus will not go away by isolating people, this virus will go away only when the herd immunity is large enough. Anyone who has looked at the 1918/1919 influenza epidemic is of the same mind, this virus could mutate any time into something far more virulent and deadly so allowing as broad an introduction into society of the virus whist resisting overwhelming the available health resources is the best approach to avoiding the 1919 pandemic.

 

[Maskweech]

Yes, but government and those sworn to protect us have a duty to take the best advice and not put emotion and social clamour before considered action.

As I said in my preceding post the UK as yet has no identifiable hot spots where there is evidence of large community - infection. It will happen, and the response to it happening I am sure has been prepared and ready to put in place, but a knee jerk too early may kick the bucket over and result in a negative effect.

We are alll in the same situation, just at different timescales. We will have an Italian or Spanish type reaction, but when the degree of infection demands the response, not before for to do it before may lead to too much too early and the effect too little. This virus will not go away by isolating people, this virus will go away only when the herd immunity is large enough. Anyone who has looked at the 1918/1919 influenza epidemic is of the same mind, this virus could mutate any time into something far more virulent and deadly so allowing as broad an introduction into society of the virus whist resisting overwhelming the available health resources is the best approach to avoiding the 1919 pandemic.

At the beginning of February, there were two cases reported in Italy.
Everyone was as calm and complacent as you all seem to be now in the UK.
Everyone in Italy said the same things you are saying now.
No one in Italy thought a Chinese scenario was possible there.
Few in the UK think an Italian scenario is possible where you are.
Italy is now locked down to prevent further damage.
The latest in Italy: 15000 confirmed cases and 1000 deaths.
Wouldn't you prefer to prevent this from happening in your own backyard?

 

[clarinetbcn]

But if Grandma wasn’t at home the Mother and daughter would get the infection, recover and be immune. Then they could hug grandmother as much as they like .
Quarantining the whole population still leaves Grandmother at risk.
This is the big difference between the Mediterranean countries and the U.K. Multigenerational homes are significantly less common in the U.K. So it is much easier for the older generation to isolate themselves while the younger generation go about their daily lives. Closing schools however means the elderly are roped into childcare duties while the parents are working thus exposing the elderly to infection.
Its a fine line and we will not know which is effective for many weeks or months .

This is when the worst cultural and racial stereotypes come into play. There are virtually no multigenerational households in urban Spain, where over 80% of the population lives.

 

[WelshGas]

This is when the worst cultural and racial stereotypes come into play. There are virtually no multigenerational households in urban Spain, where over 80% of the population lives.

Oh for heavens sake “ worst cultural and racial stereotypes “ get a life in the real world. I’ve been to rural areas in Spain and Italy and it is very common for generations to live very close to each other if not under the same roof.

If families don’t live in Multigenerational groups/households then in that case it is easy for the elderly and those at risk to isolate themselves from the general, younger population while the background immunity grows.

 

[GrannyJen]

At the beginning of February, there were two cases reported in Italy.
Everyone was as calm and complacent as you all seem to be now in the UK.
Everyone in Italy said the same things you are saying now.
No one in Italy thought a Chinese scenario was possible there.
Few in the UK think an Italian scenario is possible where you are.
Italy is now locked down to prevent further damage.
The latest in Italy: 15000 confirmed cases and 1000 deaths.
Wouldn't you prefer to prevent this from happening in your own backyard?

What evidence do you have to suggest that a complete lockdown now would prevent an "Italian scenario"?

At present, both British and WHO scientists and practitioners versed in epidemiology suggest the UK approach is correct. How do you support your assertion that they are wrong?

Did you read in my post my response that ultimately the UK will have to respond as Italy and China have responded? Or even France and Spain who are following the same path? We are all following the same path, but at a different rate of footsteps as our situations are all different.

Panic never achieves anything. The only way Covid-19 will be defeated is when herd immunity takes over. Therefore a measured response into introducing it into the human population is the only long term answer.

 

[flying banana]

Scenario: Young mother comes home from work, not knowing she has been infected. She hugs and kisses her daughter, who later does the same with her frail old grandma. Grandma dies three weeks later.
Not restricting the movements of the general public puts everyone at risk of causing the death of an elderly person, perhaps someone we'd like to have around as long as we can.
If we see human life as sacred, and if we see it as a duty to protect the weak and the elderly, we will have to absorb the economic consequences.
Life is more than just about money, isn't it?

Same thing happens with flu doesn't it?

 

[Maskweech]

But if Grandma wasn’t at home the Mother and daughter would get the infection, recover and be immune. Then they could hug grandmother as much as they like .
Quarantining the whole population still leaves Grandmother at risk.
This is the big difference between the Mediterranean countries and the U.K. Multigenerational homes are significantly less common in the U.K. So it is much easier for the older generation to isolate themselves while the younger generation go about their daily lives. Closing schools however means the elderly are roped into childcare duties while the parents are working thus exposing the elderly to infection.
Its a fine line and we will not know which is effective for many weeks or months .

My scenario said nothing about where grandma lives.
Italy is unlike China and the UK is unlike Italy. Both are heavily affected.
Welcome to the non-discriminatory world of Covid-19.
Nationalist hubris and misplaced feelings of superiority are what have stood in the way of pro-active measures in the face of a known threat.
When will people ever learn how to learn from others' mistakes???

 

[clarinetbcn]

Yes, but government and those sworn to protect us have a duty to take the best advice and not put emotion and social clamour before considered action.

As I said in my preceding post the UK as yet has no identifiable hot spots where there is evidence of large community - infection. It will happen, and the response to it happening I am sure has been prepared and ready to put in place, but a knee jerk too early may kick the bucket over and result in a negative effect.

We are alll in the same situation, just at different timescales. We will have an Italian or Spanish type reaction, but when the degree of infection demands the response, not before for to do it before may lead to too much too early and the effect too little. This virus will not go away by isolating people, this virus will go away only when the herd immunity is large enough. Anyone who has looked at the 1918/1919 influenza epidemic is of the same mind, this virus could mutate any time into something far more virulent and deadly so allowing as broad an introduction into society of the virus whist resisting overwhelming the available health resources is the best approach to avoiding the 1919 pandemic.

I do understand what you are saying. However, I grew up with the family knowledge that my father lost his whole family in the 1918/1919 flu (which the entire world seems to have forgotten until recently), and at my 64 years would sincerely hope that we could find the courage, and and beyond all else, discipline, to do better this time.

 

[WelshGas]

At the beginning of February, there were two cases reported in Italy.
Everyone was as calm and complacent as you all seem to be now in the UK.
Everyone in Italy said the same things you are saying now.
No one in Italy thought a Chinese scenario was possible there.
Few in the UK think an Italian scenario is possible where you are.
Italy is now locked down to prevent further damage.
The latest in Italy: 15000 confirmed cases and 1000 deaths.
Wouldn't you prefer to prevent this from happening in your own backyard?

If you are so adamant that what we are doing is wrong would you like to give us the evidence on which your expert opinion is based.

For your information, I am in the elderly at risk group but I’ve also had some 40+ years experience working in Medicine, abroad and in the NHS and had 20+ years as a Director of Critical Care Services so I have a little knowledge of what I am talking about.

 

[flying banana]

I do understand what you are saying. However, I grew up with the family knowledge that my father lost his whole family in the 1918/1919 flu (which the entire world seems to have forgotten until recently), and at my 64 years would sincerely hope that we could find the courage, and and beyond all else, discipline, to do better this time.

Funny how we are classed as old and vulnerable over 65. But when it comes to claiming a pension its 68

 

[Maskweech]

What evidence do you have to suggest that a complete lockdown now would prevent an "Italian scenario"?

At present, both British and WHO scientists and practitioners versed in epidemiology suggest the UK approach is correct. How do you support your assertion that they are wrong?

Did you read in my post my response that ultimately the UK will have to respond as Italy and China have responded? Or even France and Spain who are following the same path? We are all following the same path, but at a different rate of footsteps as our situations are all different.

Panic never achieves anything. The only way Covid-19 will be defeated is when herd immunity takes over. Therefore a measured response into introducing it into the human population is the only long term answer.

The challenge is to prevent needless deaths and the collapse of the health system. This can best be achieved by restricting non-essential movement for a period of two weeks.
There is no playbook to consult.
There is only logic to employ:
1. The virus can only be transmitted through human contact.
2. The virus is highly contagious when the carrier is asymptomatic.
3. It runs its course in about two weeks.
4. Testing negative does not mean you won't be infected.
5. Being asymptomatic results in risky behavior.
Solution: Restricted movement until the virus runs its course.

 

[WelshGas]

My scenario said nothing about where grandma lives.
Italy is unlike China and the UK is unlike Italy. Both are heavily affected.
Welcome to the non-discriminatory world of Covid-19.
Nationalist hubris and misplaced feelings of superiority are what have stood in the way of pro-active measures in the face of a known threat.
When will people ever learn how to learn from others' mistakes???

We are learning from others mistakes. Yours probably.

 

[flying banana]

If you are so adamant that what we are doing is wrong would you like to give us the evidence on which your expert opinion is based.

For your information, I am in the elderly at risk group but I’ve also had some 40+ years experience working in Medicine, abroad and in the NHS and had 20+ years as a Director of Critical Care Services so I have a little knowledge of what I am talking about.

No you dont

 

[clarinetbcn]

Oh for heavens sake “ worst cultural and racial stereotypes “ get a life in the real world. I’ve been to rural areas in Spain and Italy and it is very common for generations to live very close to each other if not under the same roof.

If families don’t live in Multigenerational groups/households then in that case it is easy for the elderly and those at risk to isolate themselves from the general, younger population while the background immunity grows.

Quick edit to try to save face?

 

[WelshGas]

The challenge is to prevent needless deaths and the collapse of the health system. This can best be achieved by restricting non-essential movement for a period of two weeks.
There is no playbook to consult.
There is only logic to employ:
1. The virus can only be transmitted through human contact.
2. The virus is highly contagious when the carrier is asymptomatic.
3. It runs its course in about two weeks.
4. Testing negative does not mean you won't be infected.
5. Being asymptomatic results in risky behavior.
Solution: Restricted movement until the virus runs its course.

Evidence please. That’s not evidence that a complete quarantine works . The virus will never run its course until the younger generations gain immunity and total quarantine will prolong that from weeks to months.

 

[WelshGas]

Quick edit to try to save face?

Your face Yes. Panic never helps.

 

[GrannyJen]

I do understand what you are saying. However, I grew up with the family knowledge that my father lost his whole family in the 1918/1919 flu (which the entire world seems to have forgotten until recently), and at my 64 years would sincerely hope that we could find the courage, and and beyond all else, discipline, to do better this time.

So do I. Which in some disenchanted way I think the UK is on the right path. 1919 happened because 1918 was so covered up. It was not one epidemic but two and recognising it was two may well explain why a staggered response is more advisory.

 

[WelshGas]

No you dont

Sorry, but I do.

 

[Maskweech]

If you are so adamant that what we are doing is wrong would you like to give us the evidence on which your expert opinion is based.

For your information, I am in the elderly at risk group but I’ve also had some 40+ years experience working in Medicine, abroad and in the NHS and had 20+ years as a Director of Critical Care Services so I have a little knowledge of what I am talking about.

"What you are doing" isn't wrong.
Your refusal to act is negligent.
When will you set aside what can only be your nationalist feelings of superiority and simply look at the mounting evidence?
The virus doesn't discriminate.
You are just as vulnerable as the Chinese and the Italians.
Doing nothing or reacting is fatal.
Being pro-active is the right course of action.
Learn from others' mistakes.
You are fortunate to be in the position to do so.
Don't squander the opportunity.

 

[Maskweech]

We are learning from others mistakes. Yours probably.

How childish...

 

[WelshGas]

"What you are doing" isn't wrong.
Your refusal to act is negligent.
When will you set aside what can only be your nationalist feelings of superiority and simply look at the mounting evidence?
The virus doesn't discriminate.
You are just as vulnerable as the Chinese and the Italians.
Doing nothing or reacting is fatal.
Being pro-active is the right course of action.
Learn from others' mistakes.
You are fortunate to be in the position to do so.
Don't squander the opportunity.

We won’t. We’ll just follow the science.

 

[flying banana]

Sorry, but I do.

Fancy a fight

Sorry, but I do.

Top man. I love the fact its all bollox

 

[clarinetbcn]

So do I. Which in some disenchanted way I think the UK is on the right path. 1919 happened because 1918 was so covered up. It was not one epidemic but two and recognising it was two may well explain why a staggered response is more advisory.

I do so hope you are right. Is the UK response making it clear to older people that they should shelter while younger people face the brunt to give time to develop a vaccine?

 

[Maskweech]

Evidence please. That’s not evidence that a complete quarantine works . The virus will never run its course until the younger generations gain immunity and total quarantine will prolong that from weeks to months.

First, who is calling for a complete quarantine?
We are talking about pro-active government measures to prevent what has obviously happened (evidence) in other countries from happening in your neck of the woods.
We are only talking about two weeks of restricted movement, not months.
Logic and facts are what count.
Leadership means making the tough decisions.
We'll see where the UK comes out after all is said and done.
I think I've done my part, at least.