Are prices due to crash?

[Corradobrit]

I priced a similar spec Ocean to my Coast on the German VW configurator and the current list price is tickling €100K. As a consequence I don't see used prices on recent, low mileage examples falling anytime soon.
Covid is alive and kicking and in many parts increasing (we just don't get the daily ear bashing about it on the news). Yes the recession is coming but a large proportion of the population who might be future owners are mostly insulated from all these cost of living increases. It may make some take stock and think a little longer but ultimately if their interest is peaked they will buy one. Since new orders are taking 12-18 months to materialise, these fortunates will pay above the odds to buy a newer Campervan now.
I'm glad I ordered when I did, could wait out the delivery delays and will have the Cali perfectly spec'ed for my needs.

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

All about supply and demand, but I can’t see used prices dropping significantly until VW reduces the new price of a Cali’ along with the delivery timescale.

 

[ArunAlec]

Won’t be long until people have to pay Capital Gains on sales!

 

[Corradobrit]

Won’t be long until people have to pay Capital Gains on sales!

Its already started in the US when selling through Ebay/Paypal

 

[The Merle]

I think you’d be brave sinking £91k into a California at the moment…

That’s got to be one of them vat mistake cali as it ain’t even a 4motion.
They add vat when they shouldn’t bet you see that price change soon.

 

[scottk]

Hopefully nobody is daft enough to pay that price. The wait is difficult but in our case we really have too much on our plate until after August. Realistically won’t see our van until the end of the year the way things are going although it would be a pleasant surprise if it landed earlier. We looked at second hand but decided it just wasn’t worth it which has turned out quite well for us as we would be struggling to get a night away currently!

 

[Calimili]

I think prices will drop quickly and considerably in a year or two and I certainly hope to be wrong.
I love camping, I love my Cali especially now that after 3 years of ownership I dialed it exactly to fit my needs regarding its setup/accessories, what to take on holiday and what not.
But i have started considering selling it, maybe. Because it is the environment that has changed. Not sure in UK , but here in Europe now there are twice as many camping buses, motorhomes, caravans compared to pre-covid. But the number or camping pitches has remained the same, actually it has decreased, as many camping operators have placed their own "Mobile Homes" - Bungalows, on pitches that were previously for tents/caravans/motorhomes.
I have become mad trying to find available pitches for example along the north-eastern coast of Italy, all fully booked since months. In fact I could only find something in Trieste, near the Slovenian border.
So much for spontaneous holidays. They killed it.
Not much better in the alps. Some camps have pitches you can't book. It's on a first come first served basis. Tried last year, huge number of people waiting for a pitch becoming available, ended up in a football field as "interim" stay while i waited for a pitch. this year is even worse.
I can't drive hundreds of miles with a small daughter and dog without knowing if I have a place to sleep. Way, way too many motorhomes.
Hence, if I am becoming demotivated with camping even though i love it, maybe other people will too, and they will sell.
Being quoted 125€ per night in Cavallino-Jesolo for a standard pitch with 1 adult+1 child+1 dog also didn't help.

 

[Corradobrit]

I think prices will drop quickly and considerably in a year or two and I certainly hope to be wrong.
I love camping, I love my Cali especially now that after 3 years of ownership I dialed it exactly to fit my needs regarding its setup/accessories, what to take on holiday and what not.
But i have started considering selling it, maybe. Because it is the environment that has changed. Not sure in UK , but here in Europe now there are twice as many camping buses, motorhomes, caravans compared to pre-covid. But the number or camping pitches has remained the same, actually it has decreased, as many camping operators have placed their own "Mobile Homes" - Bungalows, on pitches that were previously for tents/caravans/motorhomes.
I have become mad trying to find available pitches for example along the north-eastern coast of Italy, all fully booked since months. In fact I could only find something in Trieste, near the Slovenian border.
So much for spontaneous holidays. They killed it.
Not much better in the alps. Some camps have pitches you can't book. It's on a first come first served basis. Tried last year, huge number of people waiting for a pitch becoming available, ended up in a football field as "interim" stay while i waited for a pitch. this year is even worse.
I can't drive hundreds of miles with a small daughter and dog without knowing if I have a place to sleep. Way, way too many motorhomes.
Hence, if I am becoming demotivated with camping even though i love it, maybe other people will too, and they will sell.
Being quoted 125€ per night in Cavallino-Jesolo for a standard pitch with 1 adult+1 child+1 dog also didn't help.

Thats disappointing but very understandable if you have constraints that require a dedicated pitch. If I was not prepared to spend much of my time wild camping I might be second guessing a decision to buy a Campervan too. Luckily with a lot of flexibility I don't need to plan my trips around school and traditional holiday periods ie July/August, preferring to take vacations during off and mid season. I remember how bad it was finding camping in August when I lived in Italy. The company I worked at shutdown for the August holiday and we were obliged to take vacation then and we generally headed to the Islands of Corsica and Sardinia. They were still busy but easier to find a pitch away from the tourist hotspots.
It certainly sounds like the spontaneity a Cali can offer is now somewhat tempered.

 

[Borris]

ARE PRICES DUE TO CRASH?​

Why should this matter?

If you bought your van to enjoy and go camping then it will still do that just the same regardless of what the market says it's worth. It's a motor vehicle and was always going to depreciate over time.

If you bought it to speculate or for somewhere safe to put your cash then that was rather naïve as values are always linked to market forces which are themselves affected by any number of other often unforeseen factors. The recent high second hand values were only a temporary aberration and if that situation is now over then that can't really be called a "crash".

As for a drop in demand due to the current economic climate? Well that may happen to a certain extent and may result in some better discount deals but I doubt if they will amount to much, if anything at all, unless the supply of new vehicles improves significantly. Even during an economic squeeze there will still be buyers with the cash or disposable ready to purchase.

 

[Corradobrit]

If the T7 Multivan is going to be the platform for the next Cali, T6.1 and earlier owners don't need to worry about resale. Its fugly

 

[WelshGas]

If the T7 Multivan is going to be the platform for the next Cali, T6.1 and earlier owners don't need to worry about resale. Its fugly

View attachment 95515

That’s what was said about the T6.

 

[Corradobrit]

That’s what was said about the T6.

I also saw a few ID Buzz's too. In the flesh, without all the glitzy camerawork and lighting, I wasn't all that impressed to be honest.

 

[apreading]

The T7’s elongated car based nose is subtracted from the interior space, so even the LWB version doesn't have the same interior and luggage space as a SWB T6, while being longer overall. The SWB T7 is shorter than the T6 so not viable really as a camper.

Not an advance in packaging, but a savings for VW since it is essentially the same chassis as the Caddy, with a false double A pillar tacked on to disguise the long nose, front row moved rearward and loss of cargo space. It really doesnt work as a van or camper.

 

[Digger]

The T7 Multivan is a people carrier so why is everyone so negative. Having sat and driven a T7 Style with leather seating it does exactly what is was designed for and does it well. Drives much better than a van and anyone who has driven one will agree. A minor modification to lower grill would help and companies will have this planned.
No the next Transporter will be the Ford built van and then the wailing will be justified.

 

[Karlos]

There has to be a correction in all markets at some point, I was going to take early retirement this year but as things are I have put those plans on hold, still waiting for my new non VW van conversion from one of the established motorhome builders and yes I'm possibly buying at the top of the market but the new van is still less than I sold our Cali for and we intend to keep it for around 10 years. I think Cali's will loose less than others and the overpricing of used vehicles will reduce but there will always be a market for these vehicles.

 

[reserves]

Full disclosure, we’ve sold our last Cali & miss having one so are on the look out.

Asking prices have not dropped at all from what I can see, Cali’s are selling though only the ones priced sensibly.

I can’t see prices dropping unless someone *has* to sell which is only individually.

A lot of people brought at the top or through Covid and don’t want to make a loss so would rather hold o to them.

We’ve had various Californias since 2014 and I’ve had a close eye on used prices.

With a new Cali available to order for £67k this is where I think prices should be and certainly not far off asking prices pre Covid:

T5 Cali’s (Euro 4) - £23-25k (these are close to these prices)
T5.1 2010 (Euro 5) - £30k
Late T5.1 (Euro 5) - £35k
T6 (Euro 6) - £40-50k
T6.1 (Euro 6) - £55-60k
T6.1 Brand new - £67k

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Our t6.1 is a month short of 2 years old and the Motorway online valuation was more than the price we paid. So, no sign of prices dropping at the moment. BTW we’re not selling

 

[calibeach76]

Just looking at the amount of used Cali's for sale at the moment , normally this time of year everything sells as soon as advertised yet im seeing the same ones for sale now for weeks on end , even Auto Trader has over 100 Cali's for sale

The market is saturated with all leisure vehicles and the market will go pop in a big way. I have two friends in the trade and one who owns a very large specialist dealer supplying top end European models has been drastically reducing their stock over the summer to minimise exposure. They made their money over the last 2 years and are ready to weather the storm. With the affordability crisis leading nobody immune luxury products will be the first to go and as soon as the numbers going through the auctions creep up and dealers don't want to over stock there's only one way prices will go. We bought in April and sold in September for 10% more than we paid and had the use of it for the summer. That is good man maths.... I will wait with cash in the bank to buy when values return to sensible levels but will likely buy another a class as it will suit our family needs better.

 

[reserves]

Our t6.1 is a month short of 2 years old and the Motorway online valuation was more than the price we paid. So, no sign of prices dropping at the moment. BTW we’re not selling

Congrats!

Motorway are an auction house though so it’s not a guaranteed price.

 

[calibeach76]

Congrats!

Motorway are an auction house though so it’s not a guaranteed price.

Motorway will bid selectively. There will be a lot less final interest in a California now than two months ago. The dealer who bought mine at 10% more than I paid in April 22 still has it and 6 others for sale.... this time last year it was very different.

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Congrats!

Motorway are an auction house though so it’s not a guaranteed price.

Same valuation from WBAC recently @reserves and they’re obviously going to look at adding a margin. Prices may drop as the cost of living crisis bites however that’s not a certainty.

Example - one of my sons has recently ordered a brand new LWB CamperKing VW conversion as has a friend of his. 2 other friends have recently taken delivery also. Their ‘groupthink’ seems to be that as young couples with several kids each, campervan holidays are a good option in the coming years. Cheaper and less hassle than flying. They won’t be alone.

Like Covid, the latest financial crisis might just stimulate the market for UK and EU camping holidays. Who knows?

 

[California_Ocean]

There is an upside to a crash in sales, it means that in a few years, vehicles from 2022/2023 will be in short supply on the second-hand market - I have a friend who was looking for a 4x4 911 and his budget at the time put his target car squarely in the middle of the last financial crash - unfortunately, that meant the cars were rare as hens teeth and anything that was available was commanding a huge premium. Means the owners bought at a good price during the crash (dealers fighting for sales), and on resale sold at a premium due to the low volume of available second-hand cars.

As a private buyer who wants to use the vehicle, buying during a crash and selling during a subsequent recovery can make a lot of sense.

 

[reserves]

[

Same valuation from WBAC recently @reserves

Wow. Personally I’d bite their hand off and order a brand new one but I’m very price / depreciation sensitive.

Like I said, I believe Cali asking prices *should* be dropping but evidence shows they are not.

I have friends in the car trade and one particular desirable car, prices have crashed 15-20% in the last 2 weeks as shown by Motorway & WBAC. Motorpoint have even stopped buying them completely.

Californias are and always have been an exception to the rule.

I’m ordering a brand new Cali at a discount with a refundable deposit and if I don’t find a reasonably priced second hand one I’ll go with that.

 

[calibeach76]

If you can afford to have your cash in one and have it at risk to depreciation that's brilliant plus you have the upside of using it which to many is priceless. I personally wanted to get my cash out and it all went into gold and silver NOT the bank. If you've bought on finance I suspect there will be a lot when prices do crash that will choose to gand it back or will default and therein increases supply suppressing prices. The reality is that as prices stand and it pains me to say the California is a very overpriced vehicle at current prices imho...

 

[Elmo3]

Their ‘groupthink’ seems to be that as young couples with several kids each, campervan holidays are a good option in the coming years.

Sounds like a good reason to sell the Cali!
We are in turbulent times. Very cheap money has gone and living costs are rapidly rising. There are people around who don’t think house prices will fall, despite mortgage rates which could easily be 3X come renewal time. I’d put folk who don’t think the price of a van will fall in a similar category.