Are prices due to crash?

[reserves]

A Cali that’s been advertised here for a few weeks just sold at Auction.

Seller was asking £50k here

Sold for £41.5k at auction.

Seems a shame that the seller couldn’t reduce the price and sell privately for say £44 / £45k

 

[Ch1pbutty]

A Cali that’s been advertised here for a few weeks just sold at Auction.

Seller was asking £50k here

Sold for £41.5k at auction.

Seems a shame that the seller couldn’t reduce the price and sell privately for say £44 / £45k

Most likely now on a forecourt for £50k complete with third party warranty for ‘peace of mind’.

 

[larrylamb]

A Cali that’s been advertised here for a few weeks just sold at Auction.

Seller was asking £50k here

Sold for £41.5k at auction.

Seems a shame that the seller couldn’t reduce the price and sell privately for say £44 / £45k

T5.1 or T6?

 

[Vagophile]

or just call collect the parents while broke at college

The parents of the girl I married had a phone, number 201. That's a very easy tap.

 

[Vagophile]

If/when there are blackouts this winter, some of might be concerned about how we store our eggs

Will last perfectly well in a dark,cool place.

 

[reserves]

T5.1 or T6?

T6 Beach

 

[Cali Phillip]

Mobiles weren't working but was able to call 111 for a neighbour. They had a landline but wireless phones.Still got the old BT plugin phone.

Of course BT are going to voice over internet so be interesting to see if theres any back up. Our work phones are VOI and they fail but for now have a BT landline for emergencies and mobile signal poor.

 

[2haw]

A Cali that’s been advertised here for a few weeks just sold at Auction.

Seller was asking £50k here

Sold for £41.5k at auction.

Seems a shame that the seller couldn’t reduce the price and sell privately for say £44 / £45k

As it’s a T6, 41.5k is probably still extremely strong compared to it’s list price when new.

 

[Perfectos]

Dont look at T5 / 5.1 used prices vs Original new purchase cost, you’ll have a heart attack !

 

[Ch1pbutty]

Dont look at T5 / 5.1 used prices vs Original new purchase cost, you’ll have a heart attack !

Or a great big smile!

 

[Perfectos]

Or a great big smile!

And why not, you’ve used it and have had the enjoyment & still it holds it value extremely well, good on ya

 

[ArunAlec]

Dont look at T5 / 5.1 used prices vs Original new purchase cost, you’ll have a heart attack !

Just had a quick look at my 2013 T5.1 …. 28% depreciation over 9 years.
Of that 28% only around 9% was since 2015 when I bought it.
Bought from dealer and traded in to same dealer.

 

[dspuk]

Been itching to add this so doing now as the thread has come back on topic - but considering most of the big players at the NEC show were sold out until 2024 earliest, and that is without any discounts, rumours of a ”crash” in prices seems a mix of exaggeration and wishful thinking.

 

[Digger]

Been itching to add this so doing now as the thread has come back on topic - but considering most of the big players at the NEC show were sold out until 2024 earliest, and that is without any discounts, rumours of a ”crash” in prices seems a mix of exaggeration and wishful thinking.

Scary. Not for values but too many vans will result in even more aggro with the rest of the population in areas frequented.

 

[WelshGas]

Been itching to add this so doing now as the thread has come back on topic - but considering most of the big players at the NEC show were sold out until 2024 earliest, and that is without any discounts, rumours of a ”crash” in prices seems a mix of exaggeration and wishful thinking.

I suppose it really depends haw many of those orders were placed since March this year or possibly August/September when inflation started to bite.

 

[blakeley]

Not a crash but prices are coming down very steady now, I have been monitoring around 20 Cali's for about three weeks now at both at dealers and private sales, all of these are still for sale apart from just one and 15 of them have been slowly reducing the prices each week , one of them has knocked off £6k

 

[ArunAlec]

Not a crash but prices are coming down very steady now, I have been monitoring around 20 Cali's for about three weeks now at both at dealers and private sales, all of these are still for sale apart from just one and 15 of them have been slowly reducing the prices each week , one of them has knocked off £6k

Trouble is with only having the last 3 weeks data is identifying whether the downward trend is an annual “end of season” drop or a longer term decline. Spreadsheet time!

 

[dspuk]

I suppose it really depends haw many of those orders were placed since March this year or possibly August/September when inflation started to bite.

For sure things will have slowed down, given current economics, but many vans on the stands either had sold on them (for that specific van) or at some points during the day out of stock on them and generally till 2024.

Some stands were doing a roaring trade, Jebra for instance, with small queues of people waiting to sit down with the sales staff.

Popped into Rainbow Screens the other day for a measure as they v close to me and we chatted to them on stand. He said they were now backed up for at least 3 months due to sales at the show and the amount of orders and queries generated.

Strange times in the past. Stranger times to come.

 

[dspuk]

Not a crash but prices are coming down very steady now, I have been monitoring around 20 Cali's for about three weeks now at both at dealers and private sales, all of these are still for sale apart from just one and 15 of them have been slowly reducing the prices each week , one of them has knocked off £6k

Good news. I still stand by my current comment which is, a little like the current house market, things got too hot and cheap credit allowed people to over price and still get a sale. Prices for both (houses and vans) are coming down, but from the hot price, not to "when I were a young un" prices.

 

[OGII]

Trouble is with only having the last 3 weeks data is identifying whether the downward trend is an annual “end of season” drop or a longer term decline. Spreadsheet time!

I'd bet it's end of season, with a healthy dose of people getting out due to to the predicted chaos following Trusseconomics.

Demand will resume in spring as it always has, and probably always will. As with any purchase the low mileage 2 seat Beach loaded with options will sell better than a poverty spec one in a dodgy colour, just as the right 204 4motion Ocean will fly off the forecourt compared with some others. Come Easter even the written off kebab shop accident type vans will find their new owners.

 

[kernnowkarmann]

Just going to give my perspective having moved to Luxembourg from UK in summer and having just bought a Cali Ocean.

I sold my Renault Trafic conversion as the authorities here don't like conversions and unless it has TUV certification you can't register it. So, basically you are left with the choice of a VW or Marco-Polo if you don't want a motorhome.

After I'd got over my shock at how high the prices were I spent A LOT of time researching what was available mainly in Germany as they were the easiest to view.

What shocked me was how many were 80k € +, some were even over 100k. I thought this may be due to the lack of the conversion market (although earlier I saw the £131k EcoWagon conversion on Youtube so maybe I shouldn't judge too quickly!!)

My big problem was finding the colour I wanted - no offence to the majority but I really don't want grey, or indium or white etc, I really like the 2 tone vans (so disappointed to see that only offering grey/white in UK now, when did we become so dull?!), the 2 tone is reminiscent of the Type 1 and 2's (my last VW was a 74 T2 in Orange/White when I was 20, I sold that in 2002 for £2,500 , don't get me started on the low price I sold my Karmann Ghia for, I'll cry....)

So, I found a lovey red and white 2017 with low mileage (26k) and high specs. It cost me a lot. As I was using UK funds it could have cost me more but got in just before Truss crashed the £.

Looking at red/white Cali's sold in the UK I don't think I overpaid against the current climate - and that's my point in a sense - we could have held off and waited for prices to come down but we wanted a van to go exploring around Europe, it's part of our new adventure. Sure some people will say well you could have got a T5 for less or a lot of hotel rooms for that price but it's not the same.

With the long wait on new vans I can't see prices coming down soon. It's sh't if you can't afford it at the time though... and I've been in that situation before.

Now I've got it I'm going to enjoy it! As long as the kids don't get it too dirty

 

[soulstyledevon]

All converters are sold for three reasons:

1 - Covid and the restrictions on travel saw more enquiries for self-sustained travel - Campervans therefore being in high demand.
2 - The van chassis supply chain has been playing catch-up and that still continues.
3 - The war in Ukraine.

Example.
The van I’m waiting on, had a delivery due date of May 2022.
It was delayed to June because of Fiat Chassis delays to Hymer.
Delayed again to end of July and then again to October with a 6% price hike.
The original customer was offered a full refund because of delays and the price increase.
I happen to enquire not long after this cancellation.

However, I am willing to accept the price increase and delay of delivery (now December/January 22/23) because I know there aren’t any others available, anywhere.

I could order a mid 23 van, but garages won’t guarantee price or delivery dates. It’s a case of order and see when it turns up and at what cost…??? Anyones guess.

One of the dealerships I spoke to at the show said, average year they sell 50 chassis. 2022 they sold 12 because that’s all they can get hold of.

Let’s see what happens 2023, but my guess is a drop in current demand levels…

 

[reserves]

At auction:

2020 Coast 18k miles sold for £61.5k
2020 Ocean 8k miles 4Motion sold for £72k

If prices have crashed, no one has told the traders.

 

[rod_vw]

The parents of the girl I married had a phone, number 201. That's a very easy tap.

Why do you think that in the days of old fashioned strowger telephone exchanges the service number was 290. For the younger reader, 9 & 0 were dialable from a telephone box without inserting money and 2 was easy to 'tap'.

Yes I did work for the GPO (later BT).

 

[rod_vw]

All converters are sold for three reasons:

1 - Covid and the restrictions on travel saw more enquiries for self-sustained travel - Campervans therefore being in high demand.
2 - The van chassis supply chain has been playing catch-up and that still continues.
3 - The war in Ukraine.

Example.
The van I’m waiting on, had a delivery due date of May 2022.
It was delayed to June because of Fiat Chassis delays to Hymer.
Delayed again to end of July and then again to October with a 6% price hike.
The original customer was offered a full refund because of delays and the price increase.
I happen to enquire not long after this cancellation.

However, I am willing to accept the price increase and delay of delivery (now December/January 22/23) because I know there aren’t any others available, anywhere.

I could order a mid 23 van, but garages won’t guarantee price or delivery dates. It’s a case of order and see when it turns up and at what cost…??? Anyones guess.

One of the dealerships I spoke to at the show said, average year they sell 50 chassis. 2022 they sold 12 because that’s all they can get hold of.

Let’s see what happens 2023, but my guess is a drop in current demand levels…

Luckily my MAN TGE (base vehicle for a bespoke camper) which was ordered in August 2021 and due for delivery in a week or so will not incur any extra price increase, I have it in writing!