Are prices due to crash?

[Corradobrit]

Personally i think there will be a glut of late T6 T6.1 coming on to the market as people offload their Calis. Far too many people jumped on the Cali bandwagon either due to covid or trying to profiteer and will get there fingers slightly singed if not burned. Prices will drop from their recent (inflated) highs. Just my opinion.

I see them falling more inline with retail prices. Same price without the extended 6-12 month wait.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

All I can say that is if the Governor of the Bank of England is following this thread ( extremely unlikely ! ) he will be highly delighted.
The majority view seems to be that high interest rates will stifle demand for new Calis and that a glut of vans coming off PCP deals will also cause used prices to fall.
That is exactly what he wants to happen.
There was a bubble in house prices and used vehicle prices and high interest rates have punctured the bubble.
For what it’s worth my prediction is that interest rates will continue to rise until inflation is well under control.
Inflation will come down from the current 11.1% to the target of 2%, sometime in 2024.
Interest rates will then reduce, but not to the record low levels we enjoyed for years. The days of cheap money are over. It was good while it lasted.

 

[Corradobrit]

Inflation will come down from the current 11.1% to the target of 2%, sometime in 2024.

I'll believe it when I see it. Latest US GDP figures were just announced and exceeded economists expectations. This adds more inflationary pressures encouraging the Fed to continue the upward trend of interest rate rises. I see a similar trend happening in the UK and other G7 economies. That 2% inflation rate is pie in the sky at least for the foreseeable future, thanks to the overly long QE debacle.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

I'll believe it when I see it. Latest US GDP figures were just announced and exceeded economists expectations. This adds more inflationary pressures encouraging the Fed to continue the upward trend of interest rate rises. I see a similar trend happening in the UK and other G7 economies. That 2% inflation rate is pie in the sky at least for the foreseeable future, thanks to the overly long QE debacle.

Point taken about QE going on too long but we are now in QT ie the B of E is selling bonds now, not buying them. Bond buyers know that more bonds are coming to the market and will rightly demand a higher interest rate to buy them, driving interest rate upwards.
Bank Of England has one job, and one job only, and that is to get inflation down to 2%. Despite past mistakes I am fairly confident they will get there.
But hey, as the old saying goes, time will tell, time will tell.

 

[sidepod]

What’s the current rate of unemployment?
I always understood we need at least 3 million unemployed to keep inflation at manageable levels.

 

[66tim99]

the demise of the Diesel engine from consumer cars.

The demise of new diesel engines from consumer cars. In 2030. Those sold in 2029 will potentially run until 2050 and beyond.

 

[soulstyledevon]

What’s the current rate of unemployment?
I always understood we need at least 3 million unemployed to keep inflation at manageable levels.

Ask anyone with their own company how hard it is to find labour?
Even more of a mission for companies looking for a certain skill set. I changed job this year after 15 years at the same place. Negotiated a three day week at five days pay.
5 o clock Wednesday is now my favourite part of the week…

 

[Ch1pbutty]

Ask anyone with their own company how hard it is to find labour?
Even more of a mission for companies looking for a certain skill set. I changed job this year after 15 years at the same place. Negotiated a three day week at five days pay.
5 o clock Wednesday is now my favourite part of the week…

Its very difficult to find skilled people at the moment even when offering decent salary & benefits (UK, Singapore, Australia, USA, Germany, Brazil & China.).

Graduates / trainees are like gold dust.

If you want a change of career, now is the time to do it.

 

[66tim99]

Negotiated a three day week at five days pay.

What business are you in if you don’t mind me asking?

 

[subthree]

What business are you in if you don’t mind me asking?

Member of parliament.

 

[sidepod]

Graduates / trainees are like gold dust.

Read “Cheap”

 

[Defender90]

I see them falling more inline with retail prices. Same price without the extended 6-12 month wait.

Just put my cali into motorway again it’s gone up 72,055.00 lol the graph shows they have increased.Not many 4 motion about and any that are are 77k up over in the main dealer

 

[Mansfieldman750]

Just put my cali into motorway again it’s gone up 72,055.00 lol the graph shows they have increased.Not many 4 motion about and any that are are 77k up over in the main dealer

If you’re serious about selling that looks like a good offer to me.
1.8 million homeowners in the UK need to remortgage in 2023. Some of them probably own a California. They will be coming off a record low mortgage rate to a much higher rate. Anyone can go on a mortgage calculator and put in the relevant figures.
So if you need to find a few hundred quid more for your mortgage and you have a Cali on the drive costing you a few hundred quid a month on PCP, you may have a decision to take.
Before I get shot down in flames, I know that not everyone has a mortgage and not everyone has their van on PCP.
So I’m going to rest my case on this topic by repeating my prediction that used prices will fall ( but not exactly crash ) and wait a couple of years and see if I was right or wrong.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

1.8 million remortgages that is. I need to re-read before I send

 

[WelshGas]

1.8 million remortgages that is. I need to re-read before I send

You do know that as a VIP member you can Edit your forum post after posting it. Bottom L corner of your Post. Only the original poster can do this.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

You do know that as a VIP member you can Edit your forum post after posting it. Bottom L corner of your Post. Only the original poster can do this.

Thanks for that, good to know.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

There you go, sorted

 

[Defender90]

If you’re serious about selling that looks like a good offer to me.
1.8 million homeowners in the UK need to remortgage in 2023. Some of them probably own a California. They will be coming off a record low mortgage rate to a much higher rate. Anyone can go on a mortgage calculator and put in the relevant figures.
So if you need to find a few hundred quid more for your mortgage and you have a Cali on the drive costing you a few hundred quid a month on PCP, you may have a decision to take.
Before I get shot down in flames, I know that not everyone has a mortgage and not everyone has their van on PCP.
So I’m going to rest my case on this topic by repeating my prediction that used prices will fall ( but not exactly crash ) and wait a couple of years and see if I was right or wrong.

If I was in that position it would be sold in a second but I have neither pcp or mortgage thank god.I only put the information into motorway out of interest, it has to be said the Cali is one of the best vehicles I have owned.

 

[larrylamb]

Just checked out some prices on Autotrader and there are 6 x 2019/2020 Ocean's for sale (3 at main dealers) for less than 60K. Some are 199hp with LED etc. That's quite a bit cheaper than comparable private ads on here. Trade is obviously adjusting to the current market quicker,

 

[chockswahay]

, it has to be said the Cali is one of the best vehicles I have owned.

Going by your username so was the Defender I would imagine. We had a Defender 110 V8 back in the day…….loved it! (but not the 16mpg)

 

[andyinluton]

Just checked out some prices on Autotrader and there are 6 x 2019/2020 Ocean's for sale (3 at main dealers) for less than 60K. Some are 199hp with LED etc. That's quite a bit cheaper than comparable private ads on here. Trade is obviously adjusting to the current market quicker,

None of the 2019/2020 Oceans on Autotrader under £60k are T6.1 ones, all are the older T6 models.

Apart from one, all the over £60k Oceans for sale on here are T6.1

I'm not sure you are comparing apples with apples....

 

[larrylamb]

None of the 2019/2020 Oceans on Autotrader under £60k are T6.1 ones, all are the older T6 models.

Apart from one, all the over £60k Oceans for sale on here are T6.1

I'm not sure you are comparing apples with apples....

I count 5 x 2019 T6 Oceans over £60k on here. I am trying to do an honest comparison.
2 @65k,
1@63k
[email protected]
1@61k

 

[andyinluton]

I count 5 x 2019 T6 Oceans over £60k on here. I am trying to do an honest comparison.
2 @65k,
1@63k
[email protected]
1@61k

Strange - I agree now, must have had some sort of filter on.

Theres still a lot of overpriced stuff at the dealers - one still has a "showroom" van in stock 18 months old & the price keeps going up in line with current list. Won't budge a penny on price, shame as its an acceptable colour/spec.

 

[Borris]

ARE PRICES DUE TO CRASH? No.​

 

[andyinluton]

ARE PRICES DUE TO CRASH? No.​

Have Porsche 991 prices crashed - YES
Ive been tracking prices of a particular model, there appears to be about a £25k / 20% drop in the asking price in the last 3 months.
Reduced future values & interest rates on finance trebling mean that if you want one on finance the total cost has increased significantly whether thats on PCP or HP.
As a cash buyer it could be good news.