Are prices due to crash?

[reserves]

Let me make sure I’ve got this right.

We purchased our first Cali for £41,000 in 2014

We sold it in 2020 for £39,500

Let’s say £40k from 2014 was only worth £30k 2020 due to inhalation.

Did I not do ok then?

What I don’t understand is that my £40k would’ve been only worth £30k in 2020 if I bought a Cali or hid the cash under the pillow?

 

[pjm-84]

Less buying power

 

[JGov]

I'm looking to sell also and finding it very difficult to set a correct price. Our van is a Coast T6.1, manual transmission, 40350 km's, impeccable condition. Bought it for 49.900 euro's in 2020.
If I look around online there are some comparable vehicles with asking prices ranging from 57000 to 67000. My question is: are these vans also buying bought at these prices?

Am I an absolute nitwit putting a price of 50000 on this van?
Got a quote from a big secondhand camper company for 44000, no further questions asked.

At a loss here. I'm in no hurry to sell.

 

[reserves]

I'm looking to sell also and finding it very difficult to set a correct price. Our van is a Coast T6.1, manual transmission, 40350 km's, impeccable condition. Bought it for 49.900 euro's in 2020.
If I look around online there are some comparable vehicles with asking prices ranging from 57000 to 67000. My question is: are these vans also buying bought at these prices?

Am I an absolute nitwit putting a price of 50000 on this van?
Got a quote from a big secondhand camper company for 44000, no further questions asked.

At a loss here. I'm in no hurry to sell.

Difficult to know for me as I’ve only been tracking UK prices. Plus we never had T6.1 Manuals, only DSG.

Seems that here Coasts get listed for at least 10% lower than Oceans if that helps at all!

In the UK a Coast would probably be listed for £50k.

The only way to really know is to list it and see and reduce accordingly

 

[pjm-84]

The UK is a different market.

Years ago I sold a motorbike to a Dutch buyer. He told me that in comparison to Holland, us Brits were crazy due to a massive discrepancy between pricing on new and s/h vehicles. i.e the new bike in Holland is cheaper / but the value of the second hand bike is much more.....hence he visited the UK on regular basis to buy stock

 

[JuanVecino2023]

Let me make sure I’ve got this right.

We purchased our first Cali for £41,000 in 2014

We sold it in 2020 for £39,500

Let’s say £40k from 2014 was only worth £30k 2020 due to inhalation.

Did I not do ok then?

What I don’t understand is that my £40k would’ve been only worth £30k in 2020 if I bought a Cali or hid the cash under the pillow?

Your cash under the pillow would have received compound interest at the risk free rate. Had you stuck it in a deposit account instead of your mattress.

You’ve got a double whammy comparing that with spending it on a vehicle. Not only is the cash devaluing due to inflation and therefore reduced purchasing power, but you’ve added depreciation into the mix.

Or compound interest at the stock market return say average 10-12% pa.

There’s an old ‘rule of seven’ - money invested at 7% doubles in value (absolute terms not PPI), over 7 years.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

There’s an old ‘rule of seven’ - money invested at 7% doubles in value (absolute terms not PPI), over 7 years.

If only it were so. The rule is Rule of 72. Divide 72 by the interest rate to give you the number of years to double your money.
So 7% would take just over 10 years.

 

[larrylamb]

@Amarillo would have this in the bag.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

@Amarillo would have this in the bag.

Yes, where is Amarillo. I miss him.

 

[JuanVecino2023]

If only it were so. The rule is Rule of 72. Divide 72 by the interest rate to give you the number of years to double your money.
So 7% would take just over 10 years.

Sorry, you are absolutely right. It’s 10% over 7 years. Average market return. I got carried away with my sevens!

 

[ajdowson]

Cali T6 just for sale on AT - 2016 76,000 204ps manual. Dropped from 39,750 to 37,750 then 35,750. I was thinking about it even though manual but looks like it's sold. Interesting to see if picked up by a dealer to resell.

PS T5 owners keep listing under T6 Ocean at optimistic prices clogging up the list of real T6s.

 

[reserves]

Update on my approx valuations, which is based on my own research and gut feeling.

Feel free to ignore

Initial thoughts from a few months back

Assuming average miles for a California and private sales:

“
T5: £22k - £25k
T5.1: £28k - £35k
T6: £42k - £48k
T6.1: £53k - £56k

New T6.1 £68k”

I’m happy with those except:

T6’s seem to have fallen a bit lower, revise to £40-46k

T6.1 - the coasts are struggling to sell from what I can see, seems that if people are paying £50k and up they want the top of the line.

Ocean - Dealers (Breeze etc) are advertising early T6.1 from £56k.

So don’t think I’m too off here except private sellers seem to be holding out for higher prices.

I’d revise my T6.1 private sales to £50-56k, however I haven’t seen any average mileage T6.1 Ocean at £50k, so clearly I’m on my own here but I think they will fall to this on the next few months.

Dealers have stock left of T6.1 Oceans with 5 years servicing, 0% finance etc at £68k. So the gap of £18k for a 3 year old van, private sale seems reasonable to me.

Updated, assume private sale & average Cali mileage.

“T5: £22k - £25k
T5.1: £28k - £35k
T6: £40k - £46k
T6.1: £50k - £56k

New T6.1 £68k”

 

[ajdowson]

T6.1 auto 2021 42k miles - advertised under £50k. Is that a first?

Auto Trader UK - New and Used Cars For Sale

Find your next car with Auto Trader UK, the official #1 site to buy and sell new and used cars. Over 400,000 cars online. Simple, easy, quick!

www.autotrader.co.uk

Lots of stock has not shifted for ages - the cheapest red T6 oceans around £37k at dealer still unsold.

New californias are added daily - though at a spread of prices.

128 T6 ocean for sale at the moment.

 

[2into1]

T6.1 auto 2021 42k miles - advertised under £50k. Is that a first?

That's a rather 'special' colour combo. I'm sure that's not helping the price.

 

[Kernowboy]

Didn’t think there was such a thing as a bad Cali colour until I saw that one.
Have to say that there have been a number of adverts marked as sold on this site recently at fairly strong prices, noticeable compared to the past few months. I had put it down to the end of run bulge of new Calis with decent discounts and the 0% HP running out. Sales / prices will always be slow this time of year, nothing unusual.

 

[pjm-84]

Yep....horrible. Not sure you could spec that.....opps private seller.... hopefully not on here.

 

[larrylamb]

Lots of stock has not shifted for ages - the cheapest red T6 oceans around £37k at dealer still unsold.

New californias are added daily - though at a spread of prices.

128 T6 ocean for sale at the moment.

183 for sale in the car section. There was more in the summer though.
I think the sell off will quieten down now the T6.1's flooding the market has passed and the new Cali being quite unpopular generally. No one has owned up to ordering one yet!
Those basic red high mileage T6's are usually ex rental. Why would you buy one of those with so much other choice.

 

[reserves]

Have a friend in the trade, demand / prices for the T6.1 and Grand Cali dropped substantially in the last few weeks.

That’s said it’s hardly a ‘crash’ just an adjustment.

Could just be seasonal, could just be the new T6.1’s which are hanging around.

I still feel like £50k should be the starting point for T6.1, whereas it seems to be £55k, so even a 10% adjustment isn’t exactly a crash.

 

[Justinitus]

Yep....horrible. Not sure you could spec that.....opps private seller.... hopefully not on here.

That was specced new with the Style Pack

“Includes 17" ‘Devonport’ alloy wheels, darkened rear LED tail lights, stainless steel front and rear underbody cladding with contrast finish on lower doors and front and rear bumper in ‘Black Frost’ metallic paint.”

First one I’ve seen!

 

[AscotGreyCali]

I thought it was the Style Pack which we considered for ours.

I quite like the spec of the one in the advert ..Copper Bronze with a Style Pack a rare California.

 

[Corradobrit]

Acquired taste for sure and not one I would want on the driveway. Probably a good reason why its so rare.

 

[ajdowson]

Have a friend in the trade, demand / prices for the T6.1 and Grand Cali dropped substantially in the last few weeks.

That’s said it’s hardly a ‘crash’ just an adjustment.

Could just be seasonal, could just be the new T6.1’s which are hanging around.

I still feel like £50k should be the starting point for T6.1, whereas it seems to be £55k, so even a 10% adjustment isn’t exactly a crash.

Interesting to see if price points change - once there are 6.1s under 50k, then the high 40s T6.0 start to look high - noting the private (non-rental) but manual T6.0 up for only 36k.

The rentals at 37k look high if you can in reality get lower milage private for similar.

 

[Wannabecamperman]

T6.1 auto 2021 42k miles - advertised under £50k. Is that a first?

Auto Trader UK - New and Used Cars For Sale

Find your next car with Auto Trader UK, the official #1 site to buy and sell new and used cars. Over 400,000 cars online. Simple, easy, quick!

www.autotrader.co.uk

Lots of stock has not shifted for ages - the cheapest red T6 oceans around £37k at dealer still unsold.

New californias are added daily - though at a spread of prices.

128 T6 ocean for sale at the moment.

I also spotted that, though I'd rather pay the extra 2-3k for one of the several ex-rentals on a 22 plate with lower mileage.

I even checked the brand new Surf with 5 year+ promise plan at UNDER £60k!!

Auto Trader Vans - New and Used Vans For Sale

Find your next van with Auto Trader UK, the official #1 site to buy and sell new and used vans. Over 30,000 vans online. Simple, easy, quick!

www.autotrader.co.uk

Its the same as an Ocean but has no digi-dash, smaller Clayton alloys and no fog lights or chrome grill. - Or have I missed something else?

 

[reserves]

That was specced new with the Style Pack

“Includes 17" ‘Devonport’ alloy wheels, darkened rear LED tail lights, stainless steel front and rear underbody cladding with contrast finish on lower doors and front and rear bumper in ‘Black Frost’ metallic paint.”

First one I’ve seen!

Sounds good but that van looks awful to me with the Copper colour, looks like someone has gone around the bottom of the Cali with black PPF.

 

[2into1]

looks like someone has gone around the bottom of the Cali with black PPF.

or the 'Underseal' I used to try and hide the rust on my Mk3 Cortina GXL