Coronavirus Impact

[DrJuanKerr]

SC or Swimmer Canoeist = SBS

SBS Like the SAS only better

 

[ArunAlec]

SBS Like the SAS only better

This could get good!

 

[Amarillo]

This observation I would hasten to add is not from me, so no questions please. I’m good at sums not maths


A few things things be aware of.....

1) like they say, you cannot extralopolate out in a straight line
2) the r2 number is based in 10 darapoints so not to be trusted. It wont be statistically significant - the f-test is one of the main checks for this, but they don't mention or talk about central limit theroum which is key
3) the r2 number assumes normal distribution
4) real world actions change the equation - I.e., Borris announcement yesterday or a vaccination.

I'd need to relook at the matchs for historic diseases to check but I would say a poisson distribution is more likely than a normal distribution with a steep incline early then a long tail negating a lot of the maths in the video.

Basically, by assuming normal distribution the maths assumes we will take as long to reach the peak from day 0 as we will to get back to 0 from the peak. I would say its far more likely is we reach the peak very quickly then takes a long time to go away with a long tail (as characterised by poisson) up to the point of vaccination where we will see a big drop off.

The video is trying to show how exponential growth is applied to a virus curve, but as the narrator explains, it is not true exponential growth.

Neither is is normal distribution, as the video (poorly) illustrates with the curve.

What we have is an exponential type growth, where instead of the growth being controlled by a constant (the video says about 1.15) it is controlled by a variable trying to suck the growth off the exponential curve.

In the early days of the growth the variable is not very effective at distorting the exponential curve, but as more people become infected the variable has a greater influence, which eventually becomes overwhelming and slows the rate of growth.

To quote Trump:
"It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear,"

It’s not a miracle - it’s maths. The virus runs out of people to infect. Our concern is the fallout from that infection, and what we can do to manage it. As the video beautifully demonstrated, if we can reduce the ~1.15 growth to ~1.05 growth it has a massive massive massive impact on the number of infections. And the way we do that is to reduce the growth among the majority to near 1.0 by isolation in small family groups, while our key workers remain at 1.15.

 

[pjm-84]

This could get good!

If I told you about SBS selection I would have............. Let's just say a common cold and selection testing do not mix well. Ill for months afterwards.

 

[Joker 1299]

Let’s not turn this into a song line contest. Or, maybe we should?

I’m breaking the habit, I’m breaking the habit, tonight

 

[ArunAlec]

I’m breaking the habit, I’m breaking the habit, tonight

Sex an Drugs and Rock and Roll...... I wish.

 

[Joker 1299]

Let’s not turn this into a song line contest. Or, maybe we should?

Eleanor Rigby, buried along with her name, nobody came.

 

[Borris]

If I told you about SBS selection I would have............. Let's just say a common cold and selection testing do not mix well. Ill for months afterwards.

You have just reminded me that my grandfather was in the SBS during WW2. He was a lovely gentle loving man who would never talk about his experiences during the war. Having read several books on the SBS during WW2 I can see that firstly he couldn't as members weren't allowed to divulge their exploits and secondly they almost certainly were'nt the sort of things to tell a young man in peace time. Thirdly, old soldiers often don't want to recall a disturbing period from their past.

British parliament member Simon Wingfield-Digby went so far as to label the then war time Special Boat Squadron " as a band of murderous, renegade cut-throats”.

Amongst his limited papers and photos, I still have a wartime Dinner menu with all the signatures of his fellow SBS members on it. Other clues place him in the mediteranian and the Aegean during this period.

 

[Joker 1299]

You have just reminded me that my grandfather was in the SBS during WW2. He was a lovely gentle loving man who would never talk about his experiences during the war. Having read several books on the SBS during WW2 I can see that firstly he couldn't as members weren't allowed to divulge their exploits and secondly they almost certainly were'nt the sort of things to tell a young man in peace time. Thirdly, old soldiers often don't want to recall a disturbing period from their past.

British parliament member Simon Wingfield-Digby went so far as to label the then war time Special Boat Squadron " as a band of murderous, renegade cut-throats”.

Amongst his limited papers and photos, I still have a wartime Dinner menu with all the signatures of his fellow SBS members on it. Other clues place him in the mediteranian and the Aegean during this period.

Totally agree. My dad was in the navy during the war. He was an able seaman on HMS Escapade. He would not talk much about it.

 

[Joker 1299]

Essential services?

 

[Amarillo]

9.30am 16 March


11am 24 March

 

[ArunAlec]

Essential services? View attachment 56478

Probably in readiness for all the Sports Direct customers to jog around the park in their Nike trainers (70% discount).

 

[pjm-84]

Dogs had box wars in the garden this morning. Long single walk this evening.

In work, trying to close the office down, find a smaller office, and finish work

 

[Velma's Dad]

Probably in readiness for all the Sports Direct customers to jog around the park in their Nike trainers (70% discount).

You don't expect people to take their one permitted daily period of exercise in last season's trainers, do you? The Horror.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Probably in readiness for all the Sports Direct customers to jog around the park in their Nike trainers (70% discount).

I actually need some new table tennis balls...

 

[DrJuanKerr]

You have just reminded me that my grandfather was in the SBS during WW2. He was a lovely gentle loving man who would never talk about his experiences during the war. Having read several books on the SBS during WW2 I can see that firstly he couldn't as members weren't allowed to divulge their exploits and secondly they almost certainly were'nt the sort of things to tell a young man in peace time. Thirdly, old soldiers often don't want to recall a disturbing period from their past.

British parliament member Simon Wingfield-Digby went so far as to label the then war time Special Boat Squadron " as a band of murderous, renegade cut-throats”.

Amongst his limited papers and photos, I still have a wartime Dinner menu with all the signatures of his fellow SBS members on it. Other clues place him in the mediteranian and the Aegean during this period.

The old man was RSM for forty commando and it was only after he died in the late 90's my mother told me that he'd gone SB. Even though for a short while we were in together neither of us spoke much about our roles. She gave me a load of his old kit, photographs and the like. I was gutted and chuffed at the same time tbh. Even though [on paper] I outranked him he still used to put the fear of god in me when ashore! He always used to accuse me of being in a dog watch or jokingly say "call me sea daddy junior"

As a child if I had a £1 for every time he'd say to me or my brother "Can't means won't and won't means brig" or "You're a loafer. Stop loafing about the place" I could have retired. This phrase was nearly always followed up with "2 days ROPes", or "3 days ROP'es" depending on the severity of my "crime"

 

[pjm-84]

RSM .... A breed apart. Respect and scary at the same time. (They always put the fear of God into me).

Appears I may need to say, Sir!

 

[Velma's Dad]

RSM .... A breed apart. Respect and scary at the same time. (They always put the fear of God into me).

Appears I may need to say, Sir!

Fear of God is one thing, but RSMs able to induce much deeper dread.

 

[DrJuanKerr]

RSM .... A breed apart. Respect and scary at the same time. (They always put the fear of God into me).

Appears I may need to say, Sir!

lol. Not any more. I jumped ship and took terminal leave in 2015 before the pensions upheaval. I dabbled with going the full 34 years commissioned but it didn't work out financially sound. Spent last 5 years in civvy street but with a humdinger pension

 

[DrJuanKerr]

Fear of God is one thing, but RSMs able to induce much deeper dread.

hahaha. Yes. I often wondered why I chose to join the corps considering the grief he gave us

 

[Borris]

RSM .... A breed apart. Respect and scary at the same time. (They always put the fear of God into me).

Appears I may need to say, Sir!

I seem to remember that my grandfather was also an RSM.

I've always found his wartime history very interesting. Due to his pre-war occupation in nursing he started the war in the RAMC as part of the British Expeditionary Forces. He was still in France after Dunkirk eventually being evacuated from Saint Nazaire but not before witnessing the sinking of the fully loaded troop ship Lancastria.

He was later involved in the African desert campaign but at some point contracted Scarlet Fever I believe and wound up in hospital in Alexandria. Once recovered, he joined the SAS and later either voluteered or was shoved into the SBS. He was known as Doc although I don't believe he ever was one.

I'd love to know more about his service history and that of my other grandfather who served with the Royal Artillery during the Great War. Sadly, I doubt if there is very much recorded.

 

[Calitreks]

Struggled to find the right place to post this so hope ok here. I thought I would circulate just in case there is anyone stuck in Morocco

 

[Elly Swanson]

Even though it’s only virtual, let’s sit down and have a chat.

 

[Ch1pbutty]

 

[CaliBear]

My new LEGO set has arrived!