Coronavirus Impact

[clarinetbcn]

The success of Korea is due to before having even 50 cases, they did massive testing, contact tracing and quarantine of positives and contacts. They were ready. As a result they cut the exponential spread without a general lockdown, because they were able to do a specific rapid and strict lockdown only of those affected even before showing symptoms. That boat has sailed for us.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Of course we all talk about the Italian and Spanish lockdown, how about the Korean one, the one that never happened but still the South Koreans managed, without draconian measures, to manage the epidemic better than any other nation? It's not all about lockdown, but then the Korea, and to some extent Singapore, governments have powers that in our liberal western societies would never be tolerated, such as using the mobile phone network for surveillance. The Koreans also managed to predict, and have a better outcome of prediction, how their population would react, which was with discipline and with national cohesion, perhaps something to do with being on a war footing for the last 70 years.

While it's still obviously premature to draw many firm conclusions about national responses, it looks from what I've read that South Korea was successful in implementing a 'containment' strategy, and it appears that was achieved by a number of tactics but crucially very extensive diagnostic testing coupled with effective contact tracing and isolation.

Hence, they never had to progress to mitigation measures which is where we (and most of the other European countries) are at now.

South Korea had the "benefit" of the 2005 MERS outbreak, in which they preformed poorly and were castigated for it in a WHO report. They learnt from that, it appears.

 

[soulstyledevon]

The success of Korea is due to before having even 50 cases, they did massive testing, contact tracing and quarantine of positives and contacts. They were ready. As a result they cut the exponential spread without a general lockdown, because they were able to do a specific rapid and strict lockdown only of those affected before showing symptoms. That boat has sailed for us.

That’s right...
The Korean’s tested tested and tested.
This is what the WHO have said time and time again. Which again we are not doing.
We are second guessing .

 

[clarinetbcn]

This article spells it out in detail. I've posted it before, those who haven't read it might want to take a look.

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time

medium.com

 

[Amarillo]

We must do more, NOW...!!!

Getting the timing right on this is everything. Lock down too early and you have overreacted and people will ignore advice and hundreds will die. Lock down too late and hundreds will die. Time it right and you are either a sage or very lucky. Boris is definitely no sage so he is either going to be guilty of killing hundreds or very lucky. I hope he is the latter.

 

[clarinetbcn]

Also for those who are interested, worldwide tracking and comparison of infection rates by country.

CoVID 19 Growth Rate

 

[GSX1300R]

I’m 44, I ride a motorbike, I drink as well, and I’m an intensive care physician in the most affected city in the world. Let me say this thing: we leave healthy people aged 65-70 die because there’re no beds in ICUs. We pushed the limits beyond and beyond, and we count thousands of deaths, not only for coronavirus, but because health system is collapsed. I live and work in the richest part of Italy, eith probably the best health system. When other regions of the country will reach our point, will be catastrophic. Ambulances used to reach a patients in less than 8 minutes, now they need one hour or more. I don’t know if you’re prepared in UK or not, if your health system is better than our. But the sing’ll the fan, and if you think it won’t block you at home, you must be really, really stupid. Sorry buddy, good luck

My heart goes out to you my friend. Only 2 and a half weeks ago Myself and my wife were walking by the side of the Marina in Vilamoura Portugal....Not a care in the world staring at the 3 million Euro boats and having a lovely meal in one of the many restaurants there... I feel Guilty now that I was enjoying myself, But who was to know this was going to Explode ALL OVER THE WORLD like this... If a Country like Italy has been put on its knees then what hope do countries with NO health care system..Please dont give up we need people like you...

 

[WelshGas]

We must do more, NOW...!!!

And they will once Parliament has voted in the Emergency Power legislation.
That is one of the problems of a Parliamentary Democracy. As we have seen in the recent past The Government has to abide by the Law of the land.

 

[GrannyJen]

While it's still obviously premature to draw many firm conclusions about national responses, it looks from what I've read that South Korea was successful in implementing a 'containment' strategy, and it appears that was achieved by a number of tactics but crucially very extensive diagnostic testing coupled with effective contact tracing and isolation.

Hence, they never had to progress to mitigation measures which is where we (and most of the other European countries) are at now.

South Korea had the "benefit" of the 2005 MERS outbreak, in which they preformed poorly and were castigated for it in a WHO report. They learnt from that, it appears.

Thank you. Pretty much my understanding but good to hear it from someone who knows and understands a lot better than me.

Before I start to look like a complete apologist for the UK approach I do get very concerned when I keep hearing about "the plan", which as most people understand is so often the first casualty of war. I have a dislike of the "blame game" in any emergency where clearly there are no win situations but I could not help yesterday after witnessing first-hand yesterday how voluntary public response was failing continue marching along muttering under my breath "lockdown now".

 

[Borris]

I don't for a moment believe that the scientific movement / advisors would have been against stricter isolation measures & earlier implementation of them !

Well I'm pretty certain that we in the UK are where we are as a direct result of the advice given by those scientific and medical experts/advisors. If they had been advising the implementation of stricter isolation measures earlier then I'm sure the Government would have taken the appropriate steps. They known full well what's happening elsewhere around the world. I don't know what detailed advice the government have been given but you can bet your boots that they won't just be sitting on their hands. It has been explained to us all that there is strategy for dealing with this virus that has been specifically designed to give our NHS the best chance of managing what's coming. It involves delaying those stricter measures until they will have the optimum effect. Since many aren't taking much notice of the issued advice at present it looks like that strategy may well be correct.

I haven't a clue if they are right or wrong and only time will tell but I am sure that the government will have arrived at the current strategy after very careful consideration of all of the known facts, advice and data. I'm just fortunate that I'm not one those responsible for making these decisions.

 

[DrJuanKerr]

Black human and Bootnecks go hand in hand. I nearly stated a favourite saying, when up against it, that has been handed down by many at CTCRM.

The "young uns" have it easy at CTCRM these days. They've got "human rights" and everything

 

[westfalia]

sleepwalk into a catastrophe, as the Italians now admit to doing by imposing lockdown too soon.

Ive had a look but i cannot find anything about that.

It wasn't in one of the tabloids was it.

 

[Joker 1299]

Newquay’s “come if you want” response does not follow the governments message of stay at home. Clearly putting profit and wealth before the care of its owners, families or holiday guests. These sites and owners are being shamed locally which sadly needs to be made public. I live in Cornwall and whilst we do rely upon tourism now is not the time for visitors.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Aria Newquay have now announced they are closed until 30 April.

 

[GrannyJen]

Ive had a look but i cannot find anything about that.

It wasn't in one of the tabloids was it.

No. Never read them.

However sleepwalk would be a wrong term,

Perhaps underestimated the second variable, human nature..... which I am sure is what in retrospect the UK authorities would be found to have done.

 

[Seamelody]

Aria Newquay have now announced they are closed until 30 April.

Well it’s a small step in the right direction


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BeagleMum]

After spending thirty years in the Fire Service as an operational firefighter, I'm afraid tragedy and black humour often go hand in hand. In my experience it is often used as a coping mechanism. It doesn't make the issue any less serious, it just helps people to cope. It is most important to retain a sense of humour in dark times for this reason.

Absolutely agree, during my career in the Army followed by Social Care Management, there were hundreds of times black humour kept me sane enough to cope with dire circumstances.

 

[HB19]

Ye

Also for those who are interested, worldwide tracking and comparison of infection rates by country.

CoVID 19 Growth Rate

Yep .. I posted this one earlier... very good updates.

 

[GrannyJen]

Hopefully at 20:30 we will be in the start of lockdown.

 

[GrannyJen]

and @soulstyledevon I agree with you, lockdown is the only way and it is probably a bit later than it should have been but what always concerns me is that pointing fingers of blame everywhere in the middle of a war is not helpful. I'm sure after yesterday's "social experiment of relying on public discipline" Boris has already turned to his advisers and said "Now look at the mess you've dropped me in" ....

bit it's no-win anyway, it was always going to be a catastrophe of proportions unimaginable in peacetime.

Be safe. I'm currently working on a project to ensure a private, now emergency NHS, hospital can cope with staff logistics, getting medical staff in and out at unsociable hours, something the private sector has never been geared to and it's frightening. I've just "bought" a taxi company ...... there is no end to my CV enhancement!

 

[soulstyledevon]

and @soulstyledevon I agree with you, lockdown is the only way and it is probably a bit later than it should have been but what always concerns me is that pointing fingers of blame everywhere in the middle of a war is not helpful. I'm sure after yesterday's "social experiment of relying on public discipline" Boris has already turned to his advisers and said "Now look at the mess you've dropped me in" ....

bit it's no-win anyway, it was always going to be a catastrophe of proportions unimaginable in peacetime.

Be safe. I'm currently working on a project to ensure a private, now emergency NHS, hospital can cope with staff logistics, getting medical staff in and out at unsociable hours, something the private sector has never been geared to and it's frightening. I've just "bought" a taxi company ...... there is no end to my CV enhancement!

Stay safe GrannyJen.
I do agree with some of your sentiments.
We just can’t be trusted can we...?
To be fair to Borris, who really wants his job at the minute.

Unfortunately I too am still in work.
My company need me to attend to keep the lights on, even though 98% of the workforce is now off on full pay...
I knew I should have become a plaster, instead of an electrician...

 

[pjm-84]

The "young uns" have it easy at CTCRM these days. They've got "human rights" and everything

Noooo….. you mean like a lighter shade of green. I hope the Swimmer Canoeists haven't gone that way

 

[Meoncoast]

Tough new measures to slow the spread of coronavirus introduced today

content.govdelivery.com

WALES SHUTTING

 

[bigmac77]

Tough new measures to slow the spread of coronavirus introduced today

content.govdelivery.com

WALES SHUTTING

Everything shut.

 

[Meoncoast]

Everything shut.

yep now

 

[soulstyledevon]

Feels weird when it finally happens...