EU Referendum - 23rd June - How will you vote?

[hirsty]

...

You could use the figures to show a contrary argument, 45% is high so there would be even more reason to remain if the figure was 75% or would it? Therefore I ignore this figure and am more concerned about the future.

I want to live in a world where we are open to the world not one where barriers are created.

We are living in a smaller world all the time, trade should be free across the world. Many in the EU are far more protectionist and that is a not a good thing for world trade or peace.

...

Or possibly we trade a huge volume of goods & services with EU countries as they are our nearest neighbours geographically, with reduced shipping costs / delivery times and most similar tastes / budgets / climate? And all without any import or export duties? But yes, I agree - the higher the percentage of our exports going into the EU the greater benefit of us Remaining. The other EU countries export only 8% to UK & we need them far more than they need us. They're hard numbers and cannot be discounted, there are real jobs dependent behind these figures.

It would be absolutely bonkers to put up barriers to trade with our closest neighbours and allies & I prefer to buy my German van with only local VAT added, determined by our own UK Government, rather than having an import tax added.

To me the EU (common market) is about bringing down barriers to trade - if we opt out we'll still have to meet all their standards anyway, whilst losing our substantial current input on discussions on regulations.

The article also references our existing negotiated opt-outs, so whilst Digger is going round in circles a bit now, everything I've read recently suggests that France and Germany have all but given up on encouraging us into 'ever closer union'. Almost everyone I know sees the EU as being a stabilising influence, bringing us all closer together & safer through discussion and cooperation for mutual interest - there is far more uniting us than dividing us.

 

[T6 CFO]

Or possibly we trade a huge volume of goods & services with EU countries as they are our nearest neighbours geographically, with reduced shipping costs / delivery times and most similar tastes / budgets / climate? And all without any import or export duties? But yes, I agree - the higher the percentage of our exports going into the EU the greater benefit of us Remaining. The other EU countries export only 8% to UK & we need them far more than they need us. They're hard numbers and cannot be discounted, there are real jobs dependent behind these figures.

It would be absolutely bonkers to put up barriers to trade with our closest neighbours and allies & I prefer to buy my German van with only local VAT added, determined by our own UK Government, rather than having an import tax added.

To me the EU (common market) is about bringing down barriers to trade - if we opt out we'll still have to meet all their standards anyway, whilst losing our substantial current input on discussions on regulations.

The article also references our existing negotiated opt-outs, so whilst Digger is going round in circles a bit now, everything I've read recently suggests that France and Germany have all but given up on encouraging us into 'ever closer union'. Almost everyone I know sees the EU as being a stabilising influence, bringing us all closer together & safer through discussion and cooperation for mutual interest - there is far more uniting us than dividing us.

Yes the geographic point is obvious and one of the reasons that we will continue to trade with Europe.
No the higher the figure the worse it is. The higher the figure the more we are excluding other areas of the world. Yes it's an argument to remain if you believe the EU will stop trading with us and believe we won't improve trade elsewhere. It's about opening up not limiting ourselves.




Mike

 

[SqueakyWheel]

Or possibly we trade a huge volume of goods & services with EU countries as they are our nearest neighbours geographically, with reduced shipping costs / delivery times and most similar tastes / budgets / climate? And all without any import or export duties? But yes, I agree - the higher the percentage of our exports going into the EU the greater benefit of us Remaining. The other EU countries export only 8% to UK & we need them far more than they need us. They're hard numbers and cannot be discounted, there are real jobs dependent behind these figures.

This seems a little confused. The EU is a collection of 28 countries including ( for now ) the UK. The UK 'exports' 45% of it's goods and services to those 27 other individual countries. The largest of those, Germany, exports around 8% of it's goods/services to the UK, but it also exports to the other 27 countries. Germany's total exports to the EU are also around 45%. The UK's imports from the 27 other EU countries are around 50%.

However, a lot of these statistics are badly skewed as we only really have statistics for the first point of export and not what happens to those goods after that point. The Netherlands is the UK's 3rd biggest export destination, but a majority of those goods are transported elsewhere in the EU, or onto ships to the rest of the world. Ireland is our 4th largest export destination, but again, a large percentage of those exports are actually goods from elsewhere in the EU that are basically passing through.

There are hard numbers, but I don't think they're known to anyone.

 

[Gavinskii]

I've refrained from chipping into this thread, and still remain a floating voter....however:-
I'm in my late 40's and live in the S.E (within 20 miles of London). If the leave vote wins, the big bonus bankers will either move over to central Europe as London loses it's reputation as the leading Financial Services Capital in Europe. Net result, less money earned, less taxes paid, less demand for big banger houses, housekeepers, gardeners, restaurants, taxi's, theatre, casinos, sponsorship or major sporting events etc. etc. which could all touch us or our friends and family.

The braindrain will happen & those in more ordinary careers will have to cover the cost of the increasing rise in debt from those who contribute less (or nothing).

In the future, I would like to travel more and already having interests in properties in Spain & France - where I thought I might chose to relocate in the future, I am less likely to enjoy the EU benefits of interchangeable health care and ability to draw my state pension with a Brexit vote.

With the polls currently suggesting Brexit has a lead, the £ has already fallen against the Euro, so my hols are going to get more expensive (although my European property values will buy me more GBP should I chose to sell).

Currently we all enjoy fairly easy border crossings in Europe, however I have travelled in other continents and the bureaucracy can be very painful and time consuming.

Pensions Investments - I don't honestly know the composition of mine, but I am completely sure that much of all of our pensions will rely on either buying materials from or selling goods and services to the central european market. So if we pull out the pension values are unlikely to race ahead.

The more I type the more I think I know which way I am pointing......

 

[MrSheen]

We run a family business where 80% of our sales are exported. When we export to EU countries it is as easy as shipping within the UK however shipping outside the EU is a complete nightmare full of red tape barriers. The same applies to imports as well. This is one of the main reasons we will be voting to STAY IN

 

[T6 CFO]

I've refrained from chipping into this thread, and still remain a floating voter....however:-
I'm in my late 40's and live in the S.E (within 20 miles of London). If the leave vote wins, the big bonus bankers will either move over to central Europe as London loses it's reputation as the leading Financial Services Capital in Europe. Net result, less money earned, less taxes paid, less demand for big banger houses, housekeepers, gardeners, restaurants, taxi's, theatre, casinos, sponsorship or major sporting events etc. etc. which could all touch us or our friends and family.

The braindrain will happen & those in more ordinary careers will have to cover the cost of the increasing rise in debt from those who contribute less (or nothing).

In the future, I would like to travel more and already having interests in properties in Spain & France - where I thought I might chose to relocate in the future, I am less likely to enjoy the EU benefits of interchangeable health care and ability to draw my state pension with a Brexit vote.

With the polls currently suggesting Brexit has a lead, the £ has already fallen against the Euro, so my hols are going to get more expensive (although my European property values will buy me more GBP should I chose to sell).

Currently we all enjoy fairly easy border crossings in Europe, however I have travelled in other continents and the bureaucracy can be very painful and time consuming.

Pensions Investments - I don't honestly know the composition of mine, but I am completely sure that much of all of our pensions will rely on either buying materials from or selling goods and services to the central european market. So if we pull out the pension values are unlikely to race ahead.

The more I type the more I think I know which way I am pointing......

If I was persuaded that this will happen I would have to consider my decision. Yes all those things would happen but they all depend on a meltdown in the City. Would this happen, who knows. I seem to recall similar alarm bells bring sounded over being in the euro or not. They did not happen.
As regards traveling in Europe I can see it being slightly harder but they are not going to erect barriers between EU countries to catch us Brits. Yes you may need to get into a different queue on the initial entry but that's about it I would have thought.
Pensions are hardly racing away now.
Owning property abroad is a risk and we will have the option of travel insurance when we travel that we need for everywhere else in the world.


Mike

 

[T6 CFO]

We run a family business where 80% of our sales are exported. When we export to EU countries it is as easy as shipping within the UK however shipping outside the EU is a complete nightmare full of red tape barriers. The same applies to imports as well. This is one of the main reasons we will be voting to STAY IN

A question on this are any of the barriers a result of being in the EU. I've never run a business so have no idea. I watched the BBC2 programme the other night and in that a hovercraft company was complaining that the EU was the problem with exports. I suspect it's very industry specific and there would be winners and losers.


Mike

 

[Swissian]

This seems a little confused. The EU is a collection of 28 countries including ( for now ) the UK. The UK 'exports' 45% of it's goods and services to those 27 other individual countries. The largest of those, Germany, exports around 8% of it's goods/services to the UK, but it also exports to the other 27 countries. Germany's total exports to the EU are also around 45%. The UK's imports from the 27 other EU countries are around 50%.

However, a lot of these statistics are badly skewed as we only really have statistics for the first point of export and not what happens to those goods after that point. The Netherlands is the UK's 3rd biggest export destination, but a majority of those goods are transported elsewhere in the EU, or onto ships to the rest of the world.

SqueakyWheel, I think you'll find that the EU import and export statistics are based on the European Intrastat system which requires all companies above a certain export threshold to report their EU exports. These statistics only take into account the final destination and not the first point of export. General export statistics will also only report the final destination and not the other countries the goods are transiting through. There are however a lot of UK companies that produce small components/assemblies that are used as a part of a larger product, and this in turn could be exported anywhere in the world, even back to the UK.

Just wanted to say that. I'm not getting into this discussion because I already live in a non-EU country, and have done for many years, and therefore I can't vote anyway! Personally, I hope you stay because I know what it's like to live outside the wall, and the complications it brings. It ain't easy sometimes!

 

[SqueakyWheel]

SqueakyWheel, I think you'll find that the EU import and export statistics are based on the European Intrastat system which requires all companies above a certain export threshold to report their EU exports. These statistics only take into account the final destination and not the first point of export.

The numbers do come from Eurostat/Intrastat, and in theory should show the origin and destination, but as the guidelines say: "Member States should record an import when goods enter their statistical territory and an export when goods leave that territory except if those goods are in simple transit“, i.e. if goods are loaded on a truck/container in the UK and transported via Rotterdam without being unloaded to a non-EU country, that should be recorded as a non-EU destination in the stats. But that's not what the data is showing.

Just looking at the most recent Eurostat data for March 2016 ( dig down from herehttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/international-trade ), the UK exported €1.2b of goods to Belgium, €2.0b to The Netherlands, but only €2.1b to France, €3.5n to Germany and €0.2b to Denmark. Is it reasonable that the two countries that happen to have big international ports also like to buy 3 times as much UK products per head of population? Are the Dutch and Danes really that different in their tastes?

Or again according to Eurostat, for 2014 Germany was the biggest EU exporter of cars to other EU countries with 25% of the market, followed by the Netherlands with 15% and the UK with 7%. And yet the only mass production car made in the Netherlands is the Mini.

 

[larrylamb]

Are the Dutch and Danes really that different in their tastes?

Denmark is not that easy to get to from the UK and it only has a third of the population of the Netherlands, they are very patriotic too which might explain buying more local produce.

 

[fred]

If I was persuaded that this will happen I would have to consider my decision. Yes all those things would happen but they all depend on a meltdown in the City. Would this happen, who knows. I seem to recall similar alarm bells bring sounded over being in the euro or not. They did not happen.
As regards traveling in Europe I can see it being slightly harder but they are not going to erect barriers between EU countries to catch us Brits. Yes you may need to get into a different queue on the initial entry but that's about it I would have thought.
Pensions are hardly racing away now.
Owning property abroad is a risk and we will have the option of travel insurance when we travel that we need for everywhere else in the world.


Mike

https://vwcaliforniaclub.com/threads/eu-referendum-23rd-june-how-will-you-vote.13943/page-7

Right now I'm doing 15 hour days 7 days a week contingency planning for financial services and insurance companies to move to Dublin, Luxembourg and Malta. I can't begin to explain how big the meltdown will be if we leave.

 

[WelshGas]

https://vwcaliforniaclub.com/threads/eu-referendum-23rd-june-how-will-you-vote.13943/page-7

Right now I'm doing 15 hour days 7 days a week contingency planning for financial services and insurance companies to move to Dublin, Luxembourg and Malta. I can't begin to explain how big the meltdown will be if we leave.

Poor you. It looks as if you are going to be very busy over the summer.

 

[GrannyJen]

Jen's reality check:

"The pound is deteriorating due to Brexit becoming likely"

June 2014: Euro - pound 1.14

Grexit....

Euro plummets

October 2014 Euro - pound 1.25

Subsequent "forced Grexits".... I am buying, January 2015, 1.41

Currently, tonight, on weswap, I'm buying at 1.29

Conclusion: No need to panic yet folks.

 

[fred]

Jen's reality check:

"The pound is deteriorating due to Brexit becoming likely"

June 2014: Euro - pound 1.14

Grexit....

Euro plummets

October 2014 Euro - pound 1.25

Subsequent "forced Grexits".... I am buying, January 2015, 1.41

Currently, tonight, on weswap, I'm buying at 1.29

Conclusion: No need to panic yet folks.

GBP:EUR fell 10% in the last 6 months. Forecast is around parity within about 2 years of a leave vote.

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0W211K?irpc=932

 

[WelshGas]

GBP:EUR fell 10% in the last 6 months. Forecast is around parity within about 2 years of a leave vote.

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0W211K?irpc=932

Strange that, no mention of what will happen if Greece requires a further bailout, or one of the other South European Euro countries.

 

[Amarillo]

I'd also not even thought about the issues involved in Ireland & Northern Ireland potentially being in / out either - nightmare!

I think that is a bit of a non-issue. There are plenty of open borders between EU and non-EU countries, such as between Switzerland and Austria. It might become a bit of an issue if Ireland were to join Schengen, but I am absolutely certain that the EU will insist that Britain keeps its borders open to EU migrants if we leave the EU.

As things stand we have several useful opt-outs.

 

[fred]

Poor you. It looks as if you are going to be very busy over the summer.

A pointless and petty non-contribution to what is really a very important subject. Back on ignore you go.

 

[WelshGas]

A pointless and petty non-contribution to what is really a very important subject. Back on ignore you go.

Fine with me.
I wasn't the one boasting about how busy I was planning to move the Financial Sector out of the U.K. in case the Fear Campaign failed.

 

[GrannyJen]

GBP:EUR fell 10% in the last 6 months. Forecast is around parity within about 2 years of a leave vote.

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0W211K?irpc=932

Yes, it would fall 10%.

Euro 1.41 to the GBP is ludicrous. Of course it fell.

Currently 1.29 is 14% above what it was before we were given a referendum choice.

A meaningless drum to be beating, and I'm in the remain camp.

 

[Swissian]

The numbers do come from Eurostat/Intrastat, and in theory should show the origin and destination, but as the guidelines say: "Member States should record an import when goods enter their statistical territory and an export when goods leave that territory except if those goods are in simple transit“. But that's not what the data is showing.

But that is what the data is showing. The intrastat system relies on the companies reporting their imports and exports to their government. Their government report theses to the EU, and then they are given to Eurostat. The only data that is given is the origin, the destination, and the details about the goods. So it is not theory.

Just looking at the most recent Eurostat data for March 2016 ( dig down from herehttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/international-trade ), the UK exported €1.2b of goods to Belgium, €2.0b to The Netherlands, but only €2.1b to France, €3.5n to Germany and €0.2b to Denmark. Is it reasonable that the two countries that happen to have big international ports also like to buy 3 times as much UK products per head of population?

Yes it is reasonable, because these countries are also the largest manufacturers

 

[timber]

doom and gloom
I am for out, as a lot of the money that we put in, is eaten up with fat cats salaries ,expenses etc.etc.etc.
It will collapse eventually I am sure
However I am far too old to worry about the outcome
Timber

 

[snowy55]

Just popped my postal vote in post box, as they say on Dragons Den "im oot"

 

[blakeley]

I notice the leave vote on the poll on this thread is starting to catch up

 

[LowMan]

Saw this on a Social Media site....it's an interesting thought, as many of us have been there....

I know there are problems with the EU but can anyone properly explain what our plan is if we leave?

We've all been on a night out with THAT mate who, when you're in a club says "it's crap here, let's go somewhere else". Then when you leave you realise he has no idea where to go and the place you left won't let you back in.

Without a decent plan, a leave vote could see the UK standing in a kebab shop arguing about who's fault it is!

 

[Amarillo]

I notice the leave vote on the poll on this thread is starting to catch up

It will be interesting to see how closely the poll here reflects the nationwide poll, and if it is a more accurate indicator than other opinion polls.

Does anyone know why Marine Le Pen in France and Lutz Bachmann in Germany would support Brexit? Is it because they don't like any foreigners, or do they feel that the rest of the EU could shut Britain out of a lucrative market?