EU Referendum - 23rd June - How will you vote?

[DavidofHook]

The richest country in Europe by GDP is Germany. By GDP per capita, it's Luxembourg. Both of which are in the EU. As are the 'Scandinavian' countries of Sweden, Finland and Denmark.

One of the EU's goals is to build up the poorer countries so they can become consumers for the goods and services produced by the richer countries. The richer countries will always be net EU contributors in direct funding. The benefit in increased sales is more difficult to measure.

And what has been th result of this noble goal? The poorer countries aren't richer now are they?
In fact Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece etc are all staggering under the mounting debts imposed by the wonder currency the Euro.
The people running this superstate have no idea of economics, except to chuck other people's money around. That never works in the end, Indeed the Euro was part of the reason for the crash.

 

[T6 CFO]

Rich countries lending money to poorer countries so they can afford more of the stuff they're exporting so they can become richer. Now that was a good plan!

Euro is doomed!




Mike

 

[SqueakyWheel]

Rich countries lending money to poorer countries so they can afford more of the stuff they're exporting so they can become richer. Now that was a good plan!

Euro is doomed!

Mike

Rich countries giving giving money to poorer countries, who then develop, become richer, buy stuff from the richer countries and in turn become net contributors to the EU budget. For example, Ireland since joining the EU.

Rich countries loaning money to poorer countries ( with incompetent governments ) who then have to pay it back, with interest, to the banks of the richer countries whilst going deeper into debt that can never be repaid. For example, Greece. That's not such a good plan, and the Euro as it is now may well be doomed.

Of course, the UK isn't in the Euro and has no obligations to join. Whatever the outcome of the referendum, a breakup of the Eurozone is likely to be bad for both the EU and UK economy.

 

[aileron346]

I remember my first trip in a VW camper - to France in 1973. We had just joined the EU and we crossed into Spain, into the Basque country. Spain was still a dictatorship, but on joining the EU, it became a new democracy and entered the modern world.
In 1973, we were met with heavily armed Franco paramilitary police and the whole atmosphere of our trip changed. Also of us can now travel freely into Spain, Portugal, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and so on - wherever we like, really. Just think of all the benefits that Europe has brought to us as free-spirited travellers in our VWs. Don't we owe it to our friends in Europe to try to make this magnificent project for peace work even better, rather than sit on the sidelines, enjoying Europe, but still complaining about our "loss of sovereignty"? Agreed, it's by no means perfect. But we are simply not big, or strong, enough to act alone these days. We have great friends in Europe, and the UK has enormous strengths in the art of diplomacy, government and politics - we should work together.

Well said Martin and I too have loved Europe and everything it stands for ever since travelling there in the 70s initially with school and then with my parents in their Type 2 VW.

Yes we do owe it to our friends in Europe to make the project worse. Pulling out seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago and I bet it was when Cameron announced it as a pre-election stunt.

Interestingly looks to me that the extreme wings of both left and (mainly) right are the main Brexiteers. I hope the moderate majority in the middle come together on this one. Let's hope all the young people actually vote - it will affect them hugely.

 

[T6 CFO]

Rich countries giving giving money to poorer countries, who then develop, become richer, buy stuff from the richer countries and in turn become net contributors to the EU budget. For example, Ireland since joining the EU.

Rich countries loaning money to poorer countries ( with incompetent governments ) who then have to pay it back, with interest, to the banks of the richer countries whilst going deeper into debt that can never be repaid. For example, Greece. That's not such a good plan, and the Euro as it is now may well be doomed.

Of course, the UK isn't in the Euro and has no obligations to join. Whatever the outcome of the referendum, a breakup of the Eurozone is likely to be bad for both the EU and UK economy.

Mine was meant to be a fairly simple point on the implications of the euro and I will leave it there . It is however a major plank in the bridge to an ever closer union and I believe flawed.

I am still in the camp of having to be persuaded that we can change things if we stay. I hope we can. In or out and it fails and it will be bad for our economy.

 

[hirsty]

Norways wealth is arguably a lot more to do with their eminently sensible stashing of North Sea oil revenues (whilst we wizzed ours away in corporate tax breaks for ministerial pals cemented with knighthoods) rather than their non membership of the EU:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Fund_of_Norway

Having a population of only 5M probably helps too - no wonder they've knocked back joining twice, that's a tidy nest egg per head

 

[Amarillo]

And what has been th result of this noble goal? The poorer countries aren't richer now are they?
In fact Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece etc are all staggering under the mounting debts imposed by the wonder currency the Euro.

Spain's GDP per capita:
1986 US$6,500
1996 US$16,250 +150%
2006 US$28,500 +338%
2013 US$30,000 +362%

Portugal's GDP per capita:
1986 US$3,7500
1996 US$12,250 +227%
2006 US$19,750 +427%
2013 US$21,750 +480%

Italy's GDP per capita:
1986 US$11,250
1996 US$21,750 +93%
2006 US$33,500 +198%
2013 US$36,000 +220%

Greece's GDP per capita:
1986 US$5,750
1996 US$13,750 +139%
2006 US$24,500 +326%
2013 US$22,000 +282%

For comparison:
Cost of US$1 of goods in 2013
1986 US$0.47
1996 US$0.67 +43%
2006 US$0.87 +85%
2013 US$1.00 +113%

And for further comparison:
Germany's GDP per capita:
1986 US$13,500
1996 US$30,500 +126%
2006 US$36,500 +170%
2013 US$46,250 +242%

 

[DavidofHook]

Spain's GDP per capita:
1986 US$6,500
1996 US$16,250 +150%
2006 US$28,500 +338%
2013 US$30,000 +362%

Portugal's GDP per capita:
1986 US$3,7500
1996 US$12,250 +227%
2006 US$19,750 +427%
2013 US$21,750 +480%

Italy's GDP per capita:
1986 US$11,250
1996 US$21,750 +93%
2006 US$33,500 +198%
2013 US$36,000 +220%

Greece's GDP per capita:
1986 US$5,750
1996 US$13,750 +139%
2006 US$24,500 +326%
2013 US$22,000 +282%

For comparison:
Cost of US$1 of goods in 2013
1986 US$0.47
1996 US$0.67 +43%
2006 US$0.87 +85%
2013 US$1.00 +113%

And for further comparison:
Germany's GDP per capita:
1986 US$13,500
1996 US$30,500 +126%
2006 US$36,500 +170%
2013 US$46,250 +242%

And do you have the figures for unemployment and national debt?

 

[Digger]

Facts and figures produced by whom? I have little respect for published statistics.
Regretfully the issue is just about democracy and allowing countries the right to determine their own future rather than one size fits all. It is well known that Germany has prospered so far as the southern areas, including but not exclusively, Greece has suffered.
If the argument about democracy and self determination is not accepted then we will be dragged into a failing EU. The fact that it seems incapable of reform and unwilling to compromise is its biggest threat to it surviving. That and its determination to federalism damns it to failure. My friends in Germany and Netherlands agree and similarly wish the EU would downsize and reform to allow it to survive.

 

[Amarillo]

And do you have the figures for unemployment and national debt?

Spain unemployment:
1986 - 21%
1996 - 23%
2006 - 8%
2016 - 21%

Portugal unemployment:
1986 - 9%
1996 - 7.5%
2006 - 7.5%
2016 - 12%

Italy unemployment:
1986 - 9%
1996 - 11%
2006 - 7%
2016 - 12%

Greece unemployment:
1986 - not available
1996 - 12%
2006 - 9%
2016 - 24%

Spain debt to GDP
1986 - 42%
1996 - 65%
2006 - 35%
2016 - 100%

Portugal debt to GDP
1986 - not available
1996 - 60%
2006 - 70%
2016 - 130%

Italy debt to GDP
1986 - 90%
1996 - 115%
2006 - 105%
2016 - 130%

Greece debt to GDP
1986 - 50%
1996 - 100%
2006 - 100%
2016 - 175%

 

[Amarillo]

Facts and figures produced by whom?

www.tradingeconomics.com/

My friends in Germany and Netherlands agree and similarly wish the EU would downsize and reform to allow it to survive.

I broadly agree with your friends in Germany and the Netherlands. But my questions to your friends would be this: "Is Britain more likely to influence change from outside the EU or from inside the EU?"

 

[DavidofHook]

Spain unemployment:
1986 - 21%
1996 - 23%
2006 - 8%
2016 - 21%

Portugal unemployment:
1986 - 9%
1996 - 7.5%
2006 - 7.5%
2016 - 12%

Italy unemployment:
1986 - 9%
1996 - 11%
2006 - 7%
2016 - 12%

Greece unemployment:
1986 - not available
1996 - 12%
2006 - 9%
2016 - 24%

Spain debt to GDP
1986 - 42%
1996 - 65%
2006 - 35%
2016 - 100%

Portugal debt to GDP
1986 - not available
1996 - 60%
2006 - 70%
2016 - 130%

Italy debt to GDP
1986 - 90%
1996 - 115%
2006 - 105%
2016 - 130%

Greece debt to GDP
1986 - 50%
1996 - 100%
2006 - 100%
2016 - 175%

I think that this confirms what I have said before. Without control of your currency you lose control of your country. Horrible levels of unemployment coupled with high levels of debt, not a sign of good governance.
At least if we leave and then elect an incompetent government we can vote it out again. We can't at the moment and we can't if we stay in.

 

[pjm-84]

Time to take the test....

https://www.eureferendum.gov.uk/take-eu-quiz/

 

[T6 CFO]

Well I'll go first got 6. Probably knew 4 and of the other 4 guessed 2 right.


Mike

 

[Amarillo]

Without control of your currency you lose control of your country. Horrible levels of unemployment coupled with high levels of debt, not a sign of good governance.

I do not feel that it is fair to hold the EU wholly responsible for the unemployment rates in member states. Membership of the Euro seems a more likely culprit. Poland joined the EU in 2004, is not a member of the Euro, and has maintained control of both its unemployment rate and debt to GDP.

Poland unemployment:
1986 - 0% (dubious)
1996 - 14%
2006 - 17%
2016 - 10%

Poland debt to GDP
1986 - not available
1996 - 42.5%
2006 - 47%
2016 - 52%

Had the UK joined the Euro club, and lost partial control of fiscal policy, I would be very likely to vote to leave the Euro club if such a referendum was held. However, this is not what this referendum is about. It is about us losing a say in the EU's direction, and the EU having a reduced influence over us.

 

[DavidofHook]

I do not feel that it is fair to hold the EU wholly responsible for the unemployment rates in member states. Membership of the Euro seems a more likely culprit. Poland joined the EU in 2004, is not a member of the Euro, and has maintained control of both its unemployment rate and debt to GDP.

Poland unemployment:
1986 - 0% (dubious)
1996 - 14%
2006 - 17%
2016 - 10%

Poland debt to GDP
1986 - not available
1996 - 42.5%
2006 - 47%
2016 - 52%

Had the UK joined the Euro club, and lost partial control of fiscal policy, I would be very likely to vote to leave the Euro club if such a referendum was held. However, this is not what this referendum is about. It is about us losing a say in the EU's direction, and the EU having a reduced influence over us.

But the EU IS responsible. It invented the Euro, no one else did. It insists on all new EU members joining the Euro, the Euro is part of EU.
European citizens are suffering due to EU policy of introducing the Euro.

 

[Amarillo]

But the EU IS responsible. It invented the Euro, no one else did. It insists on all new EU members joining the Euro, the Euro is part of EU.
European citizens are suffering due to EU policy of introducing the Euro.

Britain is not part of the Euro, and has no obligation to become part of the Euro. The Euro's failures are not related to Britain's membership of the EU.

 

[DavidofHook]

Britain is not part of the Euro, and has no obligation to become part of the Euro. The Euro's failures are not related to Britain's membership of the EU.

No, of course we aren't but it demonstrates the incompetent thinking by the EU which extends to other areas that do affect us.
One thing is that our economy has suffered because the eurozone does not buy as much from us due to their problems
Have to go, my wife is bullying me to get my head out of the iPad!!

 

[fred]

No, of course we aren't but it demonstrates the incompetent thinking by the EU which extends to other areas that do affect us.
One thing is that our economy has suffered because the eurozone does not buy as much from us due to their problems
Have to go, my wife is bullying me to get my head out of the iPad!!

David this is not correct. Our economy has suffered because UK and US banks lent money to subprime mortgage borrowers who couldn't pay it back. the UK economy outperformed and UK house prices boomed from 1996 - 2008. In doing so we caused a global recession which pushed down interest rates. We (the UK and US governments) deployed vast quantitative easing (ie. We issued government debt) to bail out the banks that were about to go bankrupt because if they hadn't we would have had a domestic economic collapse like Iceland has had. The EU was forced by our move to follow suit, they had no choice when US and UK voluntarily devalued their currencies. German, French and UK banks spotted an opportunity to deploy this new free money in to Greece, Argentina etc. Who then also couldn't repay it.

It may not seem like it but we in the developed countries (US, UK, Germany, France) have been getting rich lending money to poor people whom cannot afford to go bankrupt, and then we lend them more (in the form of a bailout loan). Our domestic governments then hit their citizens via "austerity measures" to cut our national debt and keep us competitive.

The clear answer to all of this is strong fiscal governance, and if this doesn't come from the EU then where does it come from? It's true that the EU isn't perfect and there are many opportunities for improvement. But the answer isn't to blame and then dismantle the structures that protect us.

 

[Digger]

David this is not correct. Our economy has suffered because UK and US banks lent money to subprime mortgage borrowers who couldn't pay it back. the UK economy outperformed and UK house prices boomed from 1996 - 2008. In doing so we caused a global recession which pushed down interest rates. We (the UK and US governments) deployed vast quantitative easing (ie. We issued government debt) to bail out the banks that were about to go bankrupt because if they hadn't we would have had a domestic economic collapse like Iceland has had. The EU was forced by our move to follow suit, they had no choice when US and UK voluntarily devalued their currencies. German, French and UK banks spotted an opportunity to deploy this new free money in to Greece, Argentina etc. Who then also couldn't repay it.

It may not seem like it but we in the developed countries (US, UK, Germany, France) have been getting rich lending money to poor people whom cannot afford to go bankrupt, and then we lend them more (in the form of a bailout loan). Our domestic governments then hit their citizens via "austerity measures" to cut our national debt and keep us competitive.

The clear answer to all of this is strong fiscal governance, and if this doesn't come from the EU then where does it come from? It's true that the EU isn't perfect and there are many opportunities for improvement. But the answer isn't to blame and then dismantle the structures that protect us.

It is true that the US did sell us sub prime debts but we did not cause the global recession. There were many factors most of which include China and the movement of manufacturing to cheaper places.

The issue regarding the EU however is to do with one size fits all mentality and lack of democracy. I want a reduced EU with limited powers and no EC. The EC is undemocratic and uncontrolled.
The only way to change is to force change by people power otherwise the EU will continue to fail and collapse. That is something we do not want but truthfully I would rather see it fail now than later before it expands to Turkey.
If Turkey joined say goodbye to democracy.

 

[Amarillo]

David this is not correct.

There are deep flaws with the Euro.

Different regions of the Euro zone have different fiscal requirements, in particular, different interest rates to stimulate growth. Without this there needs to be a transfer of wealth from richer areas to poorer areas. Within the Euro zone, and without the transfers of wealth, poorer areas built up debt, and when the US sub-prime market imploded, the shock waves laid bare the vulnerabilities of the more heavily indebted parts of the Euro zone.

This is clearly a simplistic explanation, and not by any means the whole picture, but with hindsight, the vulnerabilities of the Euro were foreseeable (if hindsight and foreseeable in the same sentence is not an oxymoron).

It would be wrong to judge the success or failure of the EU on the Euro alone. You need to look at the entire picture since the EU was formed, and whether it is broadly an institution that has benefited its members as a whole, and more specifically the peoples of the United Kingdom.

 

[Digger]

There are deep flaws with the Euro.

Different regions of the Euro zone have different fiscal requirements, in particular, different interest rates to stimulate growth. Without this there needs to be a transfer of wealth from richer areas to poorer areas. Within the Euro zone, and without the transfers of wealth, poorer areas built up debt, and when the US sub-prime market imploded, the shock waves laid bare the vulnerabilities of the more heavily indebted parts of the Euro zone.

This is clearly a simplistic explanation, and not by any means the whole picture, but with hindsight, the vulnerabilities of the Euro were foreseeable (if hindsight and foreseeable in the same sentence is not an oxymoron).

It would be wrong to judge the success or failure of the EU on the Euro alone. You need to look at the entire picture since the EU was formed, and whether it is broadly an institution that has benefited its members as a whole, and more specifically the peoples of the United Kingdom.

Realistically when you talk of wealth transfer for rich to poor areas who are the rich ones. We are in debt for trillions and cannot afford to look after our own folk. As for wealth it is our money as the governments have none. Would you sacrifice your California and lifestyle as that is the level of support the EU demands.
The EU is failing because it became to big and unwieldy and anyone who thinks it will survive is dreaming. The old USSR failed due to national conflicts and you can bet your life the EU will suffer the same fate if it does not downsize and become less federal. Look to history as people do not like being told what to do. Democracy means limited control and that the EU cannot accept.

 

[fred]

It is true that the US did sell us sub prime debts but we did not cause the global recession. There were many factors most of which include China and the movement of manufacturing to cheaper places.

How did outsourcing to China cause the GFC?

The issue regarding the EU however is to do with one size fits all mentality and lack of democracy.

Partially two sides to the same coin. Collective, collaborative governance could indeed be interpreted as "one size fits all". It makes no sense to keep peddling the myth that the EU is not democratic, the UK has 73 democratically elected MEPs to the European parliament, 10% of the vote.

I want a reduced EU with limited powers and no EC. The EC is undemocratic and uncontrolled.

The EC is the executive function, it has no authority. It is the same in this respect as HM Government in the UK, unelected administrators. No doubt there is some overlap and/or efficiency opportunity to reduce size of one or the other. Here is a list of the agencies in the EC. There's no doubt that a lot of important work is done, mainly implementation and enforcement of legislation passed by the European Parliament (which as mentioned the UK has democratic representation on).

 

[Digger]

How did outsourcing to China cause the GFC?


Partially two sides to the same coin. Collective, collaborative governance could indeed be interpreted as "one size fits all". It makes no sense to keep peddling the myth that the EU is not democratic, the UK has 73 democratically elected MEPs to the European parliament, 10% of the vote.


The EC is the executive function, it has no authority. It is the same in this respect as HM Government in the UK, unelected administrators. No doubt there is some overlap and/or efficiency opportunity to reduce size of one or the other. Here is a list of the agencies in the EC. There's no doubt that a lot of important work is done, mainly implementation and enforcement of legislation passed by the European Parliament (which as mentioned the UK has democratic representation on).

When the big businesses in the US and elsewhere sent manufacturing to the far east thousands in the US lost their jobs. Go to the US and see the result of corporate greed. Manufacturing countries do well - look at Germany as a prime example. If you don't manufacture you have to buy and the seller makes the profit. Simple economics.
The agencies of the EC have real power as they make up the detail of the EU decisions. Like the E Court of Justice there is too much unelected people with real power.
You seem to think the MEP's give us democracy, I totally disagree as the EU with its doctrine demands obedience and with 28 countries each having power of veto and such like means we have to submit to accepting their decisions. I want power of veto here in the UK ans as for the EU it is too big.
You will never see my point of view and I will never see yours but at least we share common ground in wanting a secure future ( just not in the enlarged undemocratic EU )

 

[Loz]

Ask yourself this question - do you want to live in a free country which is responsible for its own sovereignty, currency, laws and controls, or live within a single European Federal State where you are simply a member, being told what to do under European law, using a European currency, constantly subsidising the poorer EU member states who haven't managed their own affairs properly, free movement of people with no boundaries on immigration, all decided by faceless unelected EU bureaucrats who have a hidden agenda and all this will soon become binding with no get out clause.

Perhaps the younger generation are more receptive to the spin from the EU, but don't believe that the older generation have got it wrong. With age comes wisdom and the ability to reflect on life's experiences - that includes recognising bluster, bullshit, misinformation and lies.

In my view, this isn't a political debate at all - it's finally a choice for us all to decide on our destiny.

Politics interest me but it is all consuming and full of smoke, mirrors and spin.

People generally always vote for their persuasion to a political party and you just have to look at the Mayoral and PCC elections to see that trend continuing.

Political leaders should rightly come out and nail their colours to the mast - that's what leaders do - but it's easy to guess who wants to stay and go with party allegiance.

Whatever the outcome, it will be a messy process as each party and country within the UK seeks to secure the best outcome for themselves - read that as wanting more money and devolved powers!

This is the biggest question in my voting lifetime and I like my own identity and the freedom to make decisions - you won't get that in a Federal Europe where we have to kow-tow to Germany and its partner states