Goodbye Brussels, hello Burnley.

[fred]

The trade doesn't stop; a tariff is imposed by both the group of ten (EU) and the singleton (UK). For ease of calculation let's make it 10%. The person (UK) pays £100 tariff on £1,000 sales to the EU. Each of the ten members of the EU receives £10 and the UK has paid £100

The group of ten (EU) pays £200 tariff (£20 each) on £2,000 sales to the UK.

The UK receives £200 and the UK has paid £100

It's no good, each time I work it out, the UK comes out best.

Reductive reasoning.

 

[Amarillo]

Firstly, the trade isn't spread out equally between the group members is it? I imagine that Germany's share is way above say, that of Rumania.

Yes - my 10:1 model was simply there to demonstrate how £20.5 billion of exports is less significant to a population of ~600 million than £12.2 billion of exports is to a population of ~60 million.

And secondly, if your annual income is say £500 then the loss of the £200 you have quoted would be significant.

Yes again - but if you wanted to remodel my 10:1 model, you would need to take into account your first point above, and the £2,000 loss is highly unlikely to be evenly distributed among the ten members.


Even within Britain there would be winners and losers in a trade war with the EU. Let us say that the UK placed a 20% tariff on the import of cheese from the EU, and the EU retaliated. Manufacturers of Somerset Brie might find their sales increase as British customers turned away from the more pricey French product. However, makers of Stilton are likely to be hammered as our European neighbours turn to more locally produced blue veined cheeses unaffected by the loony tariffs.

 

[Amarillo]

It's no good, each time I work it out, the UK comes out best.

I expect it does: you are working it out incorrectly, and, either you do not understand tariffs or you are trolling.

 

[fred]

So yet another Brexit promise exposed as fiction as Theresa May blocks a point-based migration system.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ay-ready-to-block-boris-johnsons-point-based/

 

[Seasidesteve]

Four million signatures for a second EU referendum however in the actual referendum sixteen million voted to stay in, this leaves a short fall of twelve million people that don't give a hoot !

 

[DavidofHook]

So yet another Brexit promise exposed as fiction as Theresa May blocks a point-based migration system.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ay-ready-to-block-boris-johnsons-point-based/

Fred, in a referendum no one makes 'promises', instead the electorate is given examples of what could happen if they voted in a particular way.

Neither of the two sides could actually promise to do anything as a result of the vote because neither side was properly in power. (albeit that the Prime Minister was on one side).
Example : the £350m to the NHS suggested by Daniel Hannan. Common sense says that it is only an example because Hannan was not even in government then and would not be, after the vote.
Example 2 That the stock market would plummet and that there would be a rise in interest rates by the Remain side, this is not a promise it is a prediction .

Again the public understand this, they are not stupid. Common sense rules, not promises, examples.

 

[DavidofHook]

Yes - my 10:1 model was simply there to demonstrate how £20.5 billion of exports is less significant to a population of ~600 million than £12.2 billion of exports is to a population of ~60 million.



Yes again - but if you wanted to remodel my 10:1 model, you would need to take into account your first point above, and the £2,000 loss is highly unlikely to be evenly distributed among the ten members.


Even within Britain there would be winners and losers in a trade war with the EU. Let us say that the UK placed a 20% tariff on the import of cheese from the EU, and the EU retaliated. Manufacturers of Somerset Brie might find their sales increase as British customers turned away from the more pricey French product. However, makers of Stilton are likely to be hammered as our European neighbours turn to more locally produced blue veined cheeses unaffected by the loony tariffs.

Thank you for accepting my points that your model did not show how the losses would happen in practice.

It simply supports my contention that if Germany (say) were to experience a high loss of trade then it will be more likely to push the EU to be reasonable or even, if it could, to broker a separate deal.

However, as I said before, this tends to be less relevant now as we are were we are and we wait for Theresa May to produce the way ahead.

 

[Amarillo]

Thank you for accepting my points that your model did not show how the losses would happen in practice.

Given that it was never the purpose to show that, I am surprised that you thought it might.

 

[DavidofHook]

Given that it was never the purpose to show that, I am surprised that you thought it might.

Thank you, you had not taken into account the separate countries that comprise the EU and that different countries will be affected differently. Particularly Germany would be affected which will encourage her to encourage the EU to be reasonable.

Accordingly, I do not think that there will be a trade war with the EU (which would be bad for both sides if there was).

 

[Amarillo]

Accordingly, I do not think that there will be a trade war with the EU (which would be bad for both sides if there was).

Agreed.

Fortunately, everyone will be losers in a trade war, so it is unlikely to happen

 

[MattBW]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Trailertrash]

I WILL NOT DISCUSS THIS.............The debate was too emotionally charged. I have taken a keen interest in the markets for thirty five years of my life. Invested in dozens of companies and made a balanced decision based on listening to all sides of the argument for almost a year. When I tried to put these points forward I was shouted down. The people jumping up and down and saying that everything has turned out alright should note that we have still not extricated ourselves from the miriad of laws and trade agreements forged over the last fourty years. The baby and the bathwater have not yet left the building.

 

[AlanH99]

I WILL NOT DISCUSS THIS.............The debate was too emotionally charged. I have taken a keen interest in the markets for thirty five years of my life. Invested in dozens of companies and made a balanced decision based on listening to all sides of the argument for almost a year. When I tried to put these points forward I was shouted down. The people jumping up and down and saying that everything has turned out alright should note that we have still not extricated ourselves from the miriad of laws and trade agreements forged over the last fourty years. The baby and the bathwater have not yet left the building.

Well I think ......

No, stop it, don't.

But I can't help it, I just want to say ......

No! He's already said he won't discuss it.

Can I just point out that .....

NO!. Now just step away from the keyboard and make your way home. There's nothing to say here.

grumble, mumble, I only wanted to say .............

 

[Annik]

Bloody Merkel sticking her nose in again https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ignificantly-tougher-brexit-stance?CMP=twt_gu

 

[briwy]

Why is that sticking her nose in? She is paid to look after her own countrys interests which is what she is doing. The UK chose to come out so has to accept that other countries will decide what to do about it.

 

[Amarillo]

Why is that sticking her nose in? She is paid to look after her own countrys interests which is what she is doing. The UK chose to come out so has to accept that other countries will decide what to do about it.

I agree - just over half the country got us into this mess, we will all have to live with the consequences of their actions. I note that the pound has fallen from $1.49 just before the referendum result to $1.27 now, a stonking 14% devaluation in Britain's value.

 

[AlanH99]

In context with some of the other headlines

• FTSE 100 jumps 90 points
• IMF says UK will be fastest-growing G7 economy this year
• UK construction bounces back after Brexit vote
• Pound hits 31-year low

 

[blakeley]

I voted leave and have no regrets at all!

I run a company and due to the weak pound I have seen a large increase in exports along with many other companies, I have even had enquiries from countries I have never sold to before. They also said the housing market would crash but I have just sold my house in less than 48 hours of putting it on the market for 5% over the asking price.

Things are very good for me since Brexit, please stop all this doom and gloom people it is getting boring.

 

[Bellesca]

I am not an expert but my reading of things is that exports cheaper = imports more expensive. Surely that means some win and some lose. The same goes re interest rates for those with savings v those with a mortgage The business world have to deal with currency/interest fluctuations all the time. It's not just a brexit thing. Shouldn't they have plans in place? Also let's remember to "not panic" at daily changes (thanks to random opinions of "economist experts") but at long term trends. I wait optimistically for the long game to deliver a good result cos I really don't see what else any of us can do about it. As @blakeley says....stop the doom and gloom. Let's get on and hope that "things can only get better"

 

[Amarillo]

In context with some of the other headlines

• FTSE 100 jumps 90 points
• IMF says UK will be fastest-growing G7 economy this year
• UK construction bounces back after Brexit vote
• Pound hits 31-year low

The FTSE is up 695 points since 23 June, however, that 11% increase needs to be taken in the context of the 14% devaluation of the pound against the dollar and the 13% devaluation of the pound against the Euro.

In both Euro and Dollar terms the value of FTSE companies is down.

And please do not forget, Brexit has not happened, a beginning of Brexit has not happened, all that has happened is an expression of an intention to begin Brexit.

 

[Amarillo]

Let's get on and hope that "things can only get better"

I am afraid they are likely to get a whole lot worse for the majority. But hope isn't necessarily a bad thing to have.

 

[Star01]

Pro Brexit, Anti Brexit, there is absolutely no point going over who is to blame....some for and some against, many many experts but that is the result of a democracy..........a vote was conducted and the majority decided that they wish to leave...simples......just have to make the most of it and get the best deal possible!

 

[AlanH99]

The FTSE is up 695 points since 23 June, however, that 11% increase needs to be taken in the context of the 14% devaluation of the pound against the dollar and the 13% devaluation of the pound against the Euro.

In both Euro and Dollar terms the value of FTSE companies is down.

And please do not forget, Brexit has not happened, a beginning of Brexit has not happened, all that has happened is an expression of an intention to begin Brexit.

But if you take the percentage rise from the 14th June instead of 23rd June then it is 18% up, which outweighs the pound's devaluation.
I mention this to show that using these fluctuations to demonstrate anything meaningful is wrong. There will be uncertainty for months, if not years to come.
Some people embrace uncertainty as opportunity, while others want stability at all costs. Even if the stability is illusory and the cost is a lack of sovereignty and a weakening of democracy.

 

[Amarillo]

Some people embrace uncertainty as opportunity, while others want stability at all costs. Even if the stability is illusory and the cost is a lack of sovereignty and a weakening of democracy.

As usual, it will be the less well off who suffer.

My future is secure; my children's future is secure; and I'm pretty sure that I've done enough to secure my children's children's future even though they are some considerable way off from being born. It is not out of selfish concern for my family that I worry about the consequences of the flawed decision. It is for others who will doubtless suffer as a result of this decision, largely borne from an unjustified fear of migrants and migration.

 

[AlanH99]

As usual, it will be the less well off who suffer.

My future is secure; my children's future is secure; and I'm pretty sure that I've done enough to secure my children's children's future even though they are some considerable way off from being born. It is not out of selfish concern for my family that I worry about the consequences of the flawed decision. It is for others who will doubtless suffer as a result of this decision, largely borne from an unjustified fear of migrants and migration.

It is the less well of who are suffering from the effects of belonging to the EU now. Cheap migrant labour driving down wages; schools and hospitals having to deal with more and more demand. What you call "unjustified fear of migrants and migration" I would call "justified reaction to uncontrolled immigration".

If there is any fear, it is the unjustified fear of the Remainers that the UK cannot manage without being controlled by the EU.