Goodbye Brussels, hello Burnley.

[Amarillo]

Errr, you are joking, aren't you?

I see, the point was lost on you.

 

[Velma's Dad]

am wondering why they do not want us in the single market so they can keep on selling us VW's BMW's, Citroens, Fiats, Ferraris, Bugattis, Audis, Bosch and Indesit appliances, Aprilias, KTM's, Ducatis etc without tariffs

Good question, but it depends who you mean by "they" (and apologies if stating the obvious, but I think it's important to keep in mind that the EU is not a single institution with a single mind)...

(a) Hard-line EU bloc politicians don't want UK to be given any Single Market concessions post-Brexit, as that would signal to wavering EU states that you can dump the 'European Project' and still enjoy the benefits. (As the UK has already done, in some ways, since Maggie demanded the UK rebate, and the UK (and Denmark) opted out of the Freedom, Security and Justice chapters.)

(b) As has been pointed out by someone earlier in this thread, big business on the other hand obviously does want to be able to continue to sell their Skodas, Miele fridges, Mercedes, Sanofi pharmaceuticals and Lavazza coffee (just to add to your list) with neither tariff nor non-tariff barriers. So they will the lobbying their politicians for a compromise deal that gives as much of a UK-EU open market as can be.

 

[fred]

1. Leaving the EU is not dissociation with Europe.
It is leaving the trade tariff zone with its associated obligations. This means EU countries can impose tariffs on UK goods and the UK can impose tariffs on EU goods. As we buy more from the EU than we sell to them, it has the potential to hurt them more financially than it will hurt us if they play tit-for-tat.

How did you come to this conclusion?? As the UK imports more than it exports then a bilateral, equal trade tariff will hurt the UK far more than other EU countries, just using simple mathematics. Not only that but the import tax in to Europe will be distributed across many different governments, unlike for the UK. So tariffs hurt UK tax receipts far, far more than the EU countries.

If you mean the companies themselves, then many of the goods and services that the UK currently exports to EU countries will move to that member country to avoid this tax. It's possible BMW or VW will open a car plant in the UK, but it's likely that the UK's professional services currently servicing the EU will move to mainland Europe, because the UK is a service economy and services are more mobile than manufacturing. It's quite likely that that Brexit will have a significant shrinking effect on the UK economy, which will disincentive foreign companies from investing in the UK, a trend that we've seen leading up to and since the referendum.

Many people talk as if the UK will not be allowed to sell goods to the EU after we leave. As if only goods manufactured in the EU can be sold in the EU.

They watch their Samsung TV's, and read blogs on their Apple iPhones and wonder how we'll cope when the EU markets are closed to us. All the countries in the world can trade with the EU it's just that some pay tariffs and some do not. Will the EU give up its biggest customer to make a political point? The politicians might want to do this but the real paymasters, the big multinationals, will not.

I don't follow this point at all. Apple has no UK operation, it's based in the EU. The same with eBay, Amazon, practically every multinational business you or I deal with on a regular basis. It's wholly incorrect to describe the EU markets as being closed to us as if the big bad EU is shunning the UK. It's the UK that is proposing to reject an open market.

Similarly for the jobs market. Contrary to the way some people speak, non EU people are employed in the EU. I know of no companies that say, "Non EU persons need not apply." Do you?

Practically every single job advert states that a candidate must have the right to work in the UK. So yes, under brexit UK employers, unless they want to pay thousands and wait months for visas to be approved, will likely only be able to employ British people (unless a freedom of movement of people from the EU is agreed).

You realise that 99% of companies in the UK are SMEs, right? And 3/5ths of the UK workforce is employed by SMEs? Do you think that SMEs can afford the regulatory burden of sponsoring an employee for a visa?

 

[Neilgbj]

I voted remain, my wife voted leave.....we are still talking post Brexit ( we weren't before, post a long trip together in our Cali to France where believe it or not France was still wonderfully French and everyone we met wonderfully friendly as we remained wonderfully British....The decision has been made, most of the above seems to be irrelevant in my view (particularly the return to unnecessary slating each other even if it is mildly entertaining for innocent bystanders), we just need to get on with our lives don't we? .....particularly the bit involving spending time in our California's.....#justsaying

 

[fred]

Because brexit addresses the symptoms of inequality, but not the cause, and at a huge cost:

We're facing the possibility of a massive, self-created recession. And simultaneously we need to address this rise of nationalism in society which will likely tear this country apart, not make the UK stronger.

Pretending these risks don't exist is extremely risky. Arguments that don't even stand up to a simple sense-check (such as I responded to in my previous post) shouldn't be used to justify such nationalism or the financial pain of a recession.

 

[Digger]

&

 

[DavidofHook]

David,
I agree not everyone has this problem, some do, some don't. Yes, I did make some very polite points in respect of his comment...
On the issue of Undemocratic, Let's not forget that the House of Lords in the UK are un-elected.
The Privy council is made up of un-elected and unaccountable people. They drove the chilcott enquiry In to the war in Iraq and after the report took so long to produce with no end in sight, people were powerless to hurry this along as they were and still are unaccountable. Had this report been commissioned by the House of Commons then some accountability would have been possible. We have our fair share of un-elected representatives, We should also have a referendum to dismantle the unelected bodies within the UK...

I would not disagree with you calicasas that we have unelected bodies but two wrongs don't make a right. And, of course, critically, we do elect our lawmakers every four or five years

My argument has been about the undemocratic nature of the EU and I am not sure that we want to go into uelected bodies in the UK at the moment...... maybe a new thread when Brexit is all sorted out.?? (Although I do agree that it is a scandal that the Chilcot enquiry could not be speeded up by the Prime Minister)

We have camped in Europe, mainly France and Spain but elsewhere too for 40 odd years and have had many discussions with various nationalities about the benefits and failings of the EU (often sitting in a cool swimming pool sheltering from the heat of the day).
But, in the end time has not changed my view that the EU is a 'soft' tyranny set up with a severe democratic deficit to succeed whatever the will of the people. The EU has benefits but ultimately undemocratic societies do not succeed and I do not believe that we should be tied to one. Over the years the EU, by it's actions has only confirmed my view hence the way I voted .

Regarding immigration (question to self, should I go here?) historically this country has relied on people coming from abroad to settle here and to make us successful. The blood of Celts, Vikings, Saxons, French, Jews, Indians and now Polish etc runs through our veins and the country is stronger for it. I don't see that people will stop coming, but at least we, the U.K. will control it.

As far as 'sending people home' that would be madness to even consider, impractical and cruel and would serve no one least of all the UK. We should continue to welcome and support those already here and take away any concerns they may have about having to go back.

I am sorry that this is so long, I did not intend it to be so

 

[AlanH99]

I would not disagree with you calicasas that we have unelected bodies but two wrongs don't make a right. And, of course, critically, we do elect our lawmakers every four or five years

My argument has been about the undemocratic nature of the EU and I am not sure that we want to go into uelected bodies in the UK at the moment...... maybe a new thread when Brexit is all sorted out.?? (Although I do agree that it is a scandal that the Chilcot enquiry could not be speeded up by the Prime Minister)

We have camped in Europe, mainly France and Spain but elsewhere too for 40 odd years and have had many discussions with various nationalities about the benefits and failings of the EU (often sitting in a cool swimming pool sheltering from the heat of the day).
But, in the end time has not changed my view that the EU is a 'soft' tyranny set up with a severe democratic deficit to succeed whatever the will of the people. The EU has benefits but ultimately undemocratic societies do not succeed and I do not believe that we should be tied to one. Over the years the EU, by it's actions has only confirmed my view hence the way I voted .

Regarding immigration (question to self, should I go here?) historically this country has relied on people coming from abroad to settle here and to make us successful. The blood of Celts, Vikings, Saxons, French, Jews, Indians and now Polish etc runs through our veins and the country is stronger for it. I don't see that people will stop coming, but at least we, the U.K. will control it.

As far as 'sending people home' that would be madness to even consider, impractical and cruel and would serve no one least of all the UK. We should continue to welcome and support those already here and take away any concerns they may have about having to go back.

I am sorry that this is so long, I did not intend it to be so

"I am sorry that this is so long, I did not intend it to be so"

Don't apologise, it was worth it.

 

[AlanH99]

How did you come to this conclusion?? As the UK imports more than it exports then a bilateral, equal trade tariff will hurt the UK far more than other EU countries, just using simple mathematics.

Only if sales don't alter. But if tariffs increase, sales will decrease. As the the EU sells more to the UK than vice versa they will lose more profits. A 10% drop in sales would cost the EU more than the UK as it is 10% of a larger number.

Not only that but the import tax in to Europe will be distributed across many different governments, unlike for the UK. So tariffs hurt UK tax receipts far, far more than the EU countries.

Using this logic; tax money coming in will also be distributed across different countries in the EU unlike the UK.

Practically every single job advert states that a candidate must have the right to work in the UK. So yes, under brexit UK employers, unless they want to pay thousands and wait months for visas to be approved, will likely only be able to employ British people (unless a freedom of movement of people from the EU is agreed).

You realise that 99% of companies in the UK are SMEs, right? And 3/5ths of the UK workforce is employed by SMEs? Do you think that SMEs can afford the regulatory burden of sponsoring an employee for a visa?

EU immigration accounts for half of the people coming into the UK each year. So the other half are managing to obtain a right to work. Lets not go away with the idea that the only workers coming in to the country are from the EU.

 

[Amarillo]

Only if sales don't alter. But if tariffs increase, sales will decrease. As the the EU sells more to the UK than vice versa they will lose more profits. A 10% drop in sales would cost the EU more than the UK as it is 10% of a larger number.

That is foolish logic, and completely misses the point I made to you earlier about the loss being distributed across a far greater population.

Britain cannot possibly win a trade war with the EU.

 

[AlanH99]

That is foolish logic, and completely misses the point I made to you earlier about the loss being distributed across a far greater population.

Britain cannot possibly win a trade war with the EU.

I'm sorry I missed the point but I wondered why, if losses are distributed across the EU but are undistributed in the UK then doesn't the same apply to gains, i.e. gains are distributed in the EU but undistributed in the UK?
You know your stuff, I don't agree with it all but you know your stuff so I look forward to being enlightened. (Sounds sarcastic now that I've read it, it wasn't meant that way)

 

[WelshGas]

No one knows what will happen. Many of the predictions so far for the short term have been proven inaccurate. Long-term, who knows.

 

[pjm-84]

so far for the short term have been proven inaccurate

We had a vote, we voted out, nothing happened*. All my "predictions" were based on the invoking of Article 50 without any TTIPs in place. (Would have voted out if these were in place).

I can only see positives the longer it drags on.

(*Actually I have lost out. Our software subscription/ maintenance is based in US dollars so a price rise of around 10% is on the cards for the 9th Sept)

 

[Amarillo]

I'm sorry I missed the point but I wondered why, if losses are distributed across the EU but are undistributed in the UK then doesn't the same apply to gains, i.e. gains are distributed in the EU but undistributed in the UK?
You know your stuff, I don't agree with it all but you know your stuff so I look forward to being enlightened. (Sounds sarcastic now that I've read it, it wasn't meant that way)

Consider one person trading with a group of ten members.

The person sells £1,000 worth of goods to the group.

The group sells £2,000 worth of goods to the person.

That trade stops.

The single person loses £1,000 worth of trade.

The group loses £2,000 worth of trade, but just £200 per member.

The rest of the EU is very approximately ten times the size of the UK. For the UK to hurt the EU more than the EU could hurt us, we'd need to buy about ten times more from the EU than we sell to the EU.

=====

Another way to look at it:
About 44% of the UK's trade is with the EU.
About 12% of the EU's trade is with the UK.

We could potentially lose 44% of our trade.
The EU could potentially lose 12% of their trade.

Warning - there is a very wide margin of error in these figures. One website quotes the EU's trade with the UK at somewhere between 8% and 17%.

 

[Amarillo]

I can only see positives the longer it drags on.

According to the Economist, bookmakers reckon there is a 40% chance that Britain will not leave the EU before 2020.

 

[WelshGas]

According to the Economist, bookmakers reckon there is a 40% chance that Britain will not leave the EU before 2020.

Probably won't have to. The state the EU is in there probably won't be anyone left to negotiate with by then.
Happy, Happy Days.

 

[GrannyJen]

Numbers can be so deceiving.

Nitty gritty .... BMW sells hell of a lot of cars to UK, BMW have hell of a lot to say in Bavaria, Germany being a federal republic has to listen to Bavaria, regardless of numbers.

Wolfsburg, lower Saxony, is slightly different but still a big big voice.

It's not about numbers of course. Were the EU a typical democratic federal society then Bratislava and Vilnius would have a big equal voice. However it's not and the Franco-German axis rules Europe which is why we've ended up in this mess.

It's going to be a fudge. In my view, and in my vote, it should never be like this but it is, that is the reality we have to deal with, Brexit if it happens will happen so now let's pick up our skirts and get on with making the best of reality instead of pining for what might have been.

 

[DavidofHook]

Consider one person trading with a group of ten members.

The person sells £1,000 worth of goods to the group.

The group sells £2,000 worth of goods to the person.

That trade stops.

The single person loses £1,000 worth of trade.

The group loses £2,000 worth of trade, but just £200 per member.

The rest of the EU is very approximately ten times the size of the UK. For the UK to hurt the EU more than the EU could hurt us, we'd need to buy about ten times more from the EU than we sell to the EU.

=====

Another way to look at it:
About 44% of the UK's trade is with the EU.
About 12% of the EU's trade is with the UK.

We could potentially lose 44% of our trade.
The EU could potentially lose 12% of their trade.

Warning - there is a very wide margin of error in these figures. One website quotes the EU's trade with the UK at somewhere between 8% and 17%.

Hmmm, two points,
Firstly, the trade isn't spread out equally between the group members is it? I imagine that Germany's share is way above say, that of Rumania.
And secondly, if your annual income is say £500 then the loss of the £200 you have quoted would be significant.
Having said that, I consider that, now Brexit has been decided, these sort of discussions are a bit of an irrelevancy.
As I have said before, we need to work together to create a good future rather than bemoaning what might have been.

 

[pjm-84]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/04/britain-japanese-brexit-letter-eu

 

[bigmac77]

Title of the above article should read 'Big business attempts to stomp all over voice of British people' even as a Remain voter this is wrong.

 

[GrannyJen]

I think that the whole staff of the guardian, from the tea-person upwards, must be rabid remainers for the drivel they are peddling these days.

Whilst being quite a fan of said newspaper, despite Polly Toynbee being on the editorial staff, they really are becoming the pseudo-intellectual equivalent of the Daily Express, if at opposite polls ..... (pun intended)

 

[pjm-84]

An alternative view!

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98dd4eb4-729f-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a.html#axzz4JK5U52sv

 

[AlanH99]

Consider one person trading with a group of ten members.

The person sells £1,000 worth of goods to the group.

The group sells £2,000 worth of goods to the person.

That trade stops.

The single person loses £1,000 worth of trade.

The group loses £2,000 worth of trade, but just £200 per member.

The rest of the EU is very approximately ten times the size of the UK. For the UK to hurt the EU more than the EU could hurt us, we'd need to buy about ten times more from the EU than we sell to the EU.

=====

Another way to look at it:
About 44% of the UK's trade is with the EU.
About 12% of the EU's trade is with the UK.

We could potentially lose 44% of our trade.
The EU could potentially lose 12% of their trade.

Warning - there is a very wide margin of error in these figures. One website quotes the EU's trade with the UK at somewhere between 8% and 17%.

The trade doesn't stop; a tariff is imposed by both the group of ten (EU) and the singleton (UK). For ease of calculation let's make it 10%. The person (UK) pays £100 tariff on £1,000 sales to the EU. Each of the ten members of the EU receives £10 and the UK has paid £100

The group of ten (EU) pays £200 tariff (£20 each) on £2,000 sales to the UK.

The UK receives £200 and the UK has paid £100

It's no good, each time I work it out, the UK comes out best.

 

[DavidofHook]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/04/britain-japanese-brexit-letter-eu

This sounds like the horrible threats that we had before we declined to join the Euro. And, nothing happened!
They mention passporting, well, next year all countries that meet the standards will be entitled to passport, including the USA. Clearly this will include the UK anyway.

Japanese economy is rocky anyway.

Oh, and I am in total agreement with Grannyj over the Guardian. A lot of hypocrites.

 

[fred]

Title of the above article should read 'Big business attempts to stomp all over voice of British people' even as a Remain voter this is wrong.

An alternative viewpoint is that Japanese businesses which invested billions in the UK because the UK has access to Europe now see the UK doing something entirely unpredictable in proposing to shut itself off from the European market. I would say that these investors have a right to ask what the hell is going on before they withdraw their money and put it elsewhere.