Goodbye Brussels, hello Burnley.

[Velma's Dad]

I think we ought to recognise that short-term impacts on the economy have been minimal (compared with what many in the Remain camp prognisticated), while long term it's still far too early to say.

For myself, I'm much more interested in the impacts of the referendum on domestic politics rather than on the economy directly. I think it's fascinating how the Conservative party, in schism right up to 23 June - remember the 'Punishment Budget'? - has within three months swung itself staunchly behind Brexit orthodoxy.

I loved this piece in the Guuaarniad, in which the columnist draws cheeky but I think very insightful parallels with Reformation England (Brussels/Westminster 2016 = Rome/Hampton Court 1534).
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ry-reformation-conservative-conference-brexit

Let's hope the analogy doesn't stretch too far though. The English Civil War was fought between two factions that, while agreeing on their rejection of Rome, then failed catastrophically to agree on how power should be divided within the nation state. As observed by someone a few days ago on Radio 4's Start the Week, history has shown a remarkable tendency for countries to go to war with themselves within a short time after achieving independence.

Just saying...

 

[Amarillo]

It is the less well of who are suffering from the effects of belonging to the EU now. Cheap migrant labour driving down wages; schools and hospitals having to deal with more and more demand. What you call "unjustified fear of migrants and migration" I would call "justified reaction to uncontrolled immigration".

That is unqualified nonsense.

Unemployment is at about 5%, and the numbers in the workforce at or close to a record high.

Typically, though certainly not always, newly arrived migrant workers begin their British working life in low paid jobs, farm workers, cleaners, waiters, labourers. This opens up new job opportunities for British workers as foremen, supervisors, as well as professional jobs such as teachers. EU immigrants make up 10% of registered doctors and 4% of registered nurses, so far from draining NHS resources, EU immigrants enhance NHS resources.

 

[GrannyJen]

I think we ought to recognise that short-term impacts on the economy have been minimal (compared with what many in the Remain camp prognisticated), while long term it's still far too early to say.

For myself, I'm much more interested in the impacts of the referendum on domestic politics rather than on the economy directly. I think it's fascinating how the Conservative party, in schism right up to 23 June - remember the 'Punishment Budget'? - has within three months swung itself staunchly behind Brexit orthodoxy.

I loved this piece in the Guuaarniad, in which the columnist draws cheeky but I think very insightful parallels with Reformation England (Brussels/Westminster 2016 = Rome/Hampton Court 1534).
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ry-reformation-conservative-conference-brexit

Let's hope the analogy doesn't stretch too far though. The English Civil War was fought between two factions that, while agreeing on their rejection of Rome, then failed catastrophically to agree on how power should be divided within the nation state. As observed by someone a few days ago on Radio 4's Start the Week, history has shown a remarkable tendency for countries to go to war with themselves within a short time after achieving independence.

Just saying...

An interesting observation.

Normally it arises when you have an overthrow of authoritarian regime by a libertarian coalition that then divides amongst itself, the French Revolution being an example. The English civil war equally was between an autocracy and a libertarian parliament followed by a divided parliament and a return to authority government.

The American civil war was far more modern in it;s origins politically. At it's core the logic of kicking a particular can down the road at 20 year intervals whilst facing a population expansion that finally would undermine the logic.

With the Brexiteers the can has well and truly stopped rolling and the population expansion has happened. We can only wait with bated breath to see what happens as the Brexit coalition divides against the backdrop of the traditional political division also changing shape as the labour party implodes.

Oh to be an historian in 100 years time.

 

[Borris]

Is this thread still droning on?

We have had the referendum and we are now going to leave the EU.
Whether this decision will turn out to be a good or a bad one, nobody currently knows for certain. However one thing is for sure, the future success of GB is not going to be helped by the continued negativity and bitterness still being voiced by many disappointed voters. Whilst I fully understand these feelings, surely now is the time to move on and look to the future. IMO we all now need to help make the most of the many opportunities that leaving the EU will offer.

 

[Velma's Dad]

IMO we all now need to help make the most of the many opportunities that leaving the EU will offer.

Hard to disagree with that sentiment Borris, if only ordinary people were indeed being given any actual mandate to exploit the opportunities. (Warning: Rant Alert...)

My concern - and has been since the referendum was first mooted - is that 'Taking Back Control' doesn't actually mean giving any more of it to ordinary people. That was a clever con all along. It was actually code for take back control (from Brussels), and give it to us (Westminster: or more specifically the Conservative party, as the electoral system stitch-up of small parties such as UKIP means they'll never be allowed a significant number of seats at the big boys' table).

A case in point is immigration. People are soon going to wake up to find that they still have no actual control over who is or isn't allowed to come and live in their communities, or work in their small businesses or local hospitals. Because what was formerly decided by the market (under EU freedom of movement) will now be decided by the Home Office under direction of Westminster politicians, under steerage from big businesses/donors.

As usual, we are all suckers. Okay that's pretty cynical, but I've just been reading George Monbiot's latest book review - also in the Guardian (I do also read other papers, honest!)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/04/democracy-people-power-governments-policy

Granny Jen, could you put all that into verse for me?

 

[Amarillo]

Whilst I fully understand these feelings, surely now is the time to move on and look to the future.

Reflecting on the past might give us a better idea of what the future has to offer.

The Brexit of 1534 led to decades of misery for the poor of this country.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Reflecting on the past might give us a better idea of what the future has to offer.

The Brexit of 1534 led to decades of misery for the poor of this country.

For others with a historical bent, I just found a really fascinating - even though ultimately non-conclusive - article on just that theme (in the Telegraph... see, I said I really do read other papers ):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...r-brexit-lead-to-englands-trading-glory-or-a/

The article echos my own view that it's all much too soon to judge where Brexit is leading: "Whether Brexit is a success or failure will not be clear for decades, and perhaps centuries. When Chinese premier Zhou En-Lai was asked about the impact of the French Revolution on western civilisation he famously said it was "too early to tell"."

 

[GrannyJen]

Personally I think the only common thread between Nomura and their views on the reformation is that at about the same time the excesses and demands of servitude by the Emperors tomohito and Ogimachi was straining and then relieving the coffers of Japan.

Perhaps Nomura should take note more of their own history than of ours.

However it is typical myopia of the short term view that, in my opinion as an historian, causes Nomura to write such an historically contentious peace.

Speaking as a UK citizen, and as a remainer, even I am getting sick to death of bankers predicting doom and gloom when events 8 years ago, in "Nomura time" an eternity, proved that the last thing that banks can do is manage even their own affairs.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Personally I think the only common thread between Nomura and their views on the reformation is that at about the same time the excesses and demands of servitude by the Emperors tomohito and Ogimachi was straining and then relieving the coffers of Japan.

Excellent! We're in 16th century Japan. Not bad for a forum about VW vans. Now let's see if we can find a connection between the VW emissions scandal and... Game of Thrones.

Seriously though, I love this forum!

 

[LowMan]

As it's National Poetry Day.....

'Twas Britain, and the slithy Gove
Did gyre and gimble with the May:
All mimsy was the Bozzagrove,
And Corbyn raithes laid graves.

'Beware the Brexit-beast, my son!
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Farrage bird, and shun
The frumious Junkersnatch!'

He took his Merkel sword in hand:
Long time the manxome foe he sought
And found the referendum tree,
And stood a while in thought.

And, as in uffish mood he stood,
The Brexit beast, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the UKIP woods
And burbled as it came!

Forty eight! Fifty two! And through and through
His Merkel blade went Snicker-snack!
And in his head he thought it dead
Thus went galumphing back.

'And hast thou slain the Brexit beast?
Look to the polls, my sqeamish son!
Oh frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!'
He chortled in his joy.

'Twas Britain and the slithy Gove
Did gyre and gimble with the May:
All mimsy was the Bozzagrove,
And the Corbyn raithes laid graves.

.....Murray Lachlan Young

 

[AlanH99]

That is unqualified nonsense.

Unemployment is at about 5%, and the numbers in the workforce at or close to a record high.

Typically, though certainly not always, newly arrived migrant workers begin their British working life in low paid jobs, farm workers, cleaners, waiters, labourers. This opens up new job opportunities for British workers as foremen, supervisors, as well as professional jobs such as teachers. EU immigrants make up 10% of registered doctors and 4% of registered nurses, so far from draining NHS resources, EU immigrants enhance NHS resources.

Of course the numbers in the workforce are at a record high; due to uncontrolled immigration the UK population is at a record high.

The 5% unemployed you mention are among the less well off people I am referring to. I also include the 2.5% who are on zero hour contacts and the 6.2% who can't get the hours they would like, the underemployed.

Without the competition from immigrant labour for the lower paid jobs, these people would have a much better chance of proper employment.

As for doctors and nurses, we should be making plans to train British people for these jobs instead of just taking them from abroad. Until then, we can continue allowing them to come and work here.

Here's a basic question; what is wrong with controlling immigration?

 

[calicasas]

Is this thread still droning on?

We have had the referendum and we are now going to leave the EU.
Whether this decision turns out to be a good or a bad one, nobody currently knows for certain. However one thing is for sure, the future success of GB is not going to be helped by the continued negativity and bitterness still being voiced by many disappointed voters. Whilst I fully understand these feelings, surely now is the time to move on and look to the future. IMO we all now need to help make the most of the many opportunities that leaving the EU will offer.

People that voted to remain have had to accept the fact that the majority of people voted out. Fine i say. But please please please do not expect that those that voted to remain in the EU to roll over, keep quiet and nod approvingly.
In the same way that those that have been passionate for years about leaving, now afford the right of the 'remainers' to be vocal and continue to sound our disapproval - after all we live on a democracy in which our voices should all count in the same way we have had to accept the current referendum. Accept our right to continue to be vocal and passionate about our belief to remain in the EU...

 

[Amarillo]

The 5% unemployed you mention are among the less well off people I am referring to. I also include the 2.5% who are on zero hour contacts and the 6.2% who can't get the hours they would like, the underemployed.

And you think that their chances of appropriate employment are enhanced by leaving the EU? If you do, you are deluded.

Here's a basic question; what is wrong with controlling immigration?

You are right, it is a basic question.

Of course, there is nothing wrong with controlling immigration... unless you are a member of a single market with four basic freedoms:

• The free movement of goods
• The free movement of services and freedom of establishment.
• The free movement of persons (and citizenship), including free movement of workers.
• The free movement of capital.

Remove one, and lose a right over the other three. It is a high price to pay. Perhaps too high, time will tell.

 

[Amarillo]

But please please please do not expect that those that voted to remain in the EU to roll over, keep quiet and nod approvingly.

This is a substantive point.

When you feel that a major error has been made, with such appalling consequences for so many people, do you keep fighting for what is right, or do you put up and shut up.

I know what a coward would do.

 

[Black Sheep]

Cheap migrant labour driving down wages

I disagree AlanH99. Immigrants of whatever skill level do not lay down pay rates. Employers do, while government sets the legal minimum wage.

 

[estresao]

It is very interesting read what you guys wrote (think) about immigration, because exactly same arguments can be hearded in Spain.... In my country, when listening to lot of people, looks like all issues the country are suffering are because the immigrants are stealing Spaniards' jobs or encouraging lower salaries.

To my it's very funny, because I think "Sure! if there were no immigrants McDonnadls will pay double the salary to local people" ironicaly.

Also it's pretty funny hear that immigrants only have crapy salaries/jobs, don't pay taxes, overuses public resources, etc, etc.... in my country those are mostly the arguments of the more conservative people which are very manipulated by the most corrupt politicians.

I'm wondering why we hear same arguments here in UK. Will McDonalds pay double the salary to British waiters after the Brexit?. Will those Britons you can watch in "Benefits Street" get finally a job because immigrants left and stopped stealing them?

I'm immigrant here in UK, and I'm paying a lot of money in taxes.... a lot. Beleave me, I've got no time to use the public resources someone think I'm "burning".

IMHO I think the "immigration issue", in UK and in Spain (which looks like it's the same), is a smoke curtain politicians use to achieve their goals (which are far from citizens goals/benefits).

 

[Black Sheep]

"schools and hospitals having to deal with more and more demand".

And the government continues to significantly reduce real term funding for our NHS & Education - then uses a scapegoat ( i.e. immigrants) to blame for pressures in these services.

 

[LowMan]

Here's a basic question; what is wrong with controlling immigration?

CONTROL....immigration
CONTROL....how many children we have
CONTROL....freedom of speech
CONTROL....the age limit for Lycra
CONTROL....the books we read
CONTROL....the music we listen to
CONTROL....the films we watch
CONTROL....the games we play
CONTROL....our sexual preferences
CONTROL....the clothes we wear
CONTROL....the length of our hair
CONTROL....the accents on BBC
CONTROL....what we are allowed to believe in
CONTROL....who's 'fit for purpose'
CONTROL....your wine choice with fish
CONTROL....who's allowed to be my neighbour....

I'm not a huge fan of ....CONTROL

 

[Amarillo]

CONTROL....the age limit for Lycra

An excellent idea.

Middle Aged Men In Lycra = MAMILs

 

[Digger]

An excellent idea.

Middle Aged Men In Lycra = MAMILs

Agree. with knobs on!!!

 

[AlanH99]

I disagree AlanH99. Immigrants of whatever skill level do not lay down pay rates. Employers do, while government sets the legal minimum wage.

Employers do lay down pay rates but supply and demand will come into play. If the supply of labour is high, wages are driven down as competition between job seekers will mean the one who will accept the lowest wages will get the job. Uncontrolled immigration will result in high labour supply and lower pay.

The lowest legal rate is the minimum wage but this only allows for a pretty basic standard of living. This shouldn't be seen as the standard wage but if there are too many applying for a limited number of jobs, it will become the standard wage for many.

 

[Amarillo]

Employers do lay down pay rates but supply and demand will come into play. If the supply of labour is high, wages are driven down as competition between job seekers will mean the one who will accept the lowest wages will get the job. Uncontrolled immigration will result in high labour supply and lower pay.

I am not sure that you fully understand the concept of a single market.

If pay is too low then internal EU migrants will stay put or go to where pay is higher, and employers will move to the labour.

The four freedoms, to which I referred in another post, are all about creating a level paying field. The bigger the single market, the lower the costs to business and the greater the GDP per capita.

Do you remember the era when British workers were migrating to other EU countries due to a lack of work in the UK: Auf Wiedersehen, Pet?

 

[AlanH99]

CONTROL....immigration
CONTROL....how many children we have
CONTROL....freedom of speech
CONTROL....the age limit for Lycra
CONTROL....the books we read
CONTROL....the music we listen to
CONTROL....the films we watch
CONTROL....the games we play
CONTROL....our sexual preferences
CONTROL....the clothes we wear
CONTROL....the length of our hair
CONTROL....the accents on BBC
CONTROL....what we are allowed to believe in
CONTROL....who's 'fit for purpose'
CONTROL....your wine choice with fish
CONTROL....who's allowed to be my neighbour....

I'm not a huge fan of ....CONTROL

CONTROL....ingredients that are allowed in food
CONTROL....the people who can drive on our roads
CONTROL....who has access to nuclear material,
CONTROL....the quality of electrical insulation,
CONTROL....quality of drinking water ,
CONTROL....drugs that can be bought over the counter,
CONTROL....the minimum wage
CONTROL....which side of the road we drive on
CONTROL....who can carry guns in a public place

I could go on but I'm sure you get my drift. Some things should be controlled and some things shouldn't. It isn't control that is wrong, it is what we control.

 

[LowMan]

I could go on but I'm sure you get my drift. Some things should be controlled and some things shouldn't. It isn't control that is wrong, it is what we control.

Dude, I can assure you, I totally get your drift.....

 

[LowMan]

CONTROL....
I could go on but I'm sure you get my drift. Some things should be controlled and some things shouldn't. It isn't control that is wrong, it is what we control.

...(oops, bit hasty with the post key!!), but meant to add...

...I think you confuse CONTROL with ASSURE. There's a huge difference.